₦airaland Forum

Wallade:
The strongest bonding factor for the Northern Nigeria is the Islam religion.

However, they differentiate between Northern Nigeria Islam and Southern Nigeria Islam - they assume that the Southern Nigeria Islam is inferior to the Northern Nigeria Islam.

In this elections, I assume they have no major religion affinity for any of the major contestants, especially because Atiku and Tinubu both practice Southern Nigeria Islam. The Northerners are currently attracted to Atiku because he is from the North and they want to retain power. But there is a flip on the other side too, there are Northerners on Tinubu's side too who will also protect their own interest on that divide.

There are also the minority christians in the North who seem to be on Peter Obi's side of the divide.

Honestly, the votes from the Northern Nigeria will also be divided largely between APC and PDP leaving a smaller portion for LP and NNPP. The deciders in this 2023 Election will be the South-East and South-South votes.

South West votes will be shared amongst APC, PDP and LP.

Very intelligent analysis, devoid of emotion. Like I said in my earlier post, the South votes would cancel itself due to Obedient. Obedient would share votes majorly from PDP traditional areas in South South and South East. However, the worst case for PDP in the South would be a draw, where Atiku, Tinubu, and Obi will cancel out. The North is where the election would be decided. Only Atiku/Tinubu has the capacity to win there, with Atiku likely to having the upper hand based on local support. Obi will definitely not fly in the North, except Abuja and some state capitals of the North Central, which would not be significant for him to win. Thus 2023 is going to be keenly between Atiku/Tinubu, Obi I can bet it will not win !

garfield1:
Muazu did nothing to gej,buhari has alwats won bauchi.apc dominates katsina.atiku is Jo favourite,the north is divided

A national chairman of a party contesting presidential election abandoned his party candidate and flew out of the country on the eve of the election, means nothing to you?

Bala Muhammad and Fintiri of Bauchi and Adamawa, all won a sitting governor of the ruling party. As it stands right now, APC cannot win Katsina if election holds today. Buhari is not in the picture anymore and even the APC Northern politicians are already giving Tinubu body language.

This is funny. . But, Peter Obi's presidency will unite Nigeria more than a Tinubu or Atiku presidency. That's the reason why Arewa, Ohaneze, and Afenifere are supporting him. Oh I forgot, Obasanjo is also supporting him. Take that Biafra and IPOB talk somewhere else. Nigerians are no longer buying it.

asanausana91:
if you still love your country,pls don't make a mistake of voting for peter Obi.

rolams:
Obi can't cancel Atiku votes in the south. It will only reduce it in some states. But I can tell you that Atiku will win some states in the south while Tinubu and Obi can't do same in the North.

In my analysis, I carefully explain the worst case for Atiku in the South is a draw where his votes and that of Tinubu and Obi would cancel out. The Northern political direction would decide 2023 !

Is too close I can't predict.. Wamakko is very strong, his candidate lost with only 300 votes in 2019 against Tambuwal after it was inconclusive

However with the sentiment of Atiku as a northerner, and PDP being the ruling party.. Atiku 55%- Tinubu 45%

asanausana91:
presidential

onuman:
You are too blind to see the Igbo presidential materials in APC who formed APC with Tinubu and Buhari from the beginning.
E don set.
You people's delusion: APC is Tinubu property - may deny both Igbo and Yoruba the presidency this time if care is not taken.

tinubu did not only formed APC with buhari,he also ensured that apc won the presidential election, tinubu this time is the next person after buhari tenure,that's why you see buhari coming to campaign for tinubu,there re still large numbers of people who still respect buhari and will do everything he says in the north.

rolams:
Do you remember that an incumbent governor was defeated in Osun State? He get why.

Do you remember that Gov. Bala Muhammed defeated an incumbent to become a governor in 2019? He get why.

Do you know that GEJ was an incumbent president before Buhari defeated him? He get why too.

I will continue to tell you to fear the North. The 2023 election may create a new phenomenon.

You're not making sense

Demigod22:
A national chairman of a party contesting presidential election abandoned his party candidate and flew out of the country on the eve of the election, means nothing to you?

Bala Muhammad and Fintiri of Bauchi and Adamawa, all won a sitting governor of the ruling party. As it stands right now, APC cannot win Katsina if election holds today. Buhari is not in the picture anymore and even the APC Northern politicians are already giving Tinubu body language.

Apc is too entrenched in katsina to lose.moreover,losing there will be q big disgrace to buhari.out of respect,they will get vote tinubu...moreover,the insecurity in katsina will make it easier for apc.you heard when masari said katsina people are grateful to tinubu and will repay him.atiku can only win sokoto,Kaduna etc

Thank God that it's just an opinion. But left to me, it's wrong...

At the bolded, Obi is winning SE and SS overwhelmingly. Politicians over there already know this. Are you guys not seeing their body language on the mainstream media?

You guys keep underrating the level of support Obi has gained in the SS and SE. In the NC, his popularity among non-party voters keep rising daily.
Your analysis is still based on political structure (governors, senators, rep members, party faithfuls). Even some of the party faithfuls are gradually being converted - a case study of one of Okowa's aids.

You also did not factor in the level of unprecedented voting turnout we expect in the South and other regions. Let me ask you, has there been more than 50% voter turnout among card holders in any Nigerian election in recent times? More people are voting this time, and they are not party members.

No issues, Feb 2023 is not far again.

Onovo3:
Very intelligent analysis, devoid of emotion. Like I said in my earlier post, the South votes would cancel itself due to Obedient. Obedient would share votes majorly from PDP traditional areas in South South and South East. However, the worst case for PDP in the South would be a draw, where Atiku, Tinubu, and Obi will cancel out. The North is where the election would be decided. Only Atiku/Tinubu has the capacity to win there, with Atiku likely to having the upper hand based on local support. Obi will definitely not fly in the North, except Abuja and some state capitals of the North Central, which would not be significant for him to win. Thus 2023 is going to be keenly between Atiku/Tinubu, Obi I can bet it will not win !

So in your flawed analysis, Obi and Kwankwaso will both pull 0%? That's why I advise people to smoke only what their brain can take. But them no dey hear.

Nyamuri:
Is too close I can't predict.. Wamakko is very strong, his candidate lost with only 300 votes in 2019 against Tambuwal after it was inconclusive

However with the sentiment of Atiku as a northerner, and PDP being the ruling party.. Atiku 55%- Tinubu 45%

Nyamuri:
Lol who is Atiku's dominant force in the north!! U fools will just wake up a type rubbish.. that's why u don't know anything about elections and keep getting it wrong each election circle

Most heavyweights from the north are in APC! Is there any force as strong as governor, senator, HOR, HOA etc in a state

You guys don't know shit about how the north work but ull open ur big gutter mouth because u have read some nonsense margins on social media

I think is you that doesn't know anything about election and northerners.

You see all those APC governors and senators that tinubu dey use keep hope, most of them are secretly working for Atiku. That's north for you.
They're always united when it comes to there interest.
I hope you saw what tambuwal did to wike, wike fought Atiku in 2019 PDP primary and also insisted that the venue must be in PH because he want tambuwal to be PDP flag bearer.

How did he later pay wike pay wike back.

Me and you know that buhari never want tinubu to take over from him.

Kaduna governor has warned tinubu to throw in the towel.

My point is: until the south unit the north will continue dey dribble them like : Ameachi against GEJ, oshomole against onyegu, wike against secondus etc

In respective of there political parties

pacesetting:
This is funny. . But, Peter Obi's presidency will unite Nigeria more than a Tinubu or Atiku presidency. That's the reason why Arewa, Ohaneze, and Afenifere are supporting him. Oh I forgot, Obasanjo is also supporting him. Take that Biafra and IPOB talk somewhere else. Nigerians are no longer buying it.

Arewa are not supporting him. Obasanjo is a devil so whoever he supports Wil not win just like 2019.
Btw, Peter Obi and obj are killers.
Obj killed Zaki-biam and Udi while Peter Obi killed 89 youths in Anambara and dumped their bodies in Ezu river.

pacesetting:
This is funny. . But, Peter Obi's presidency will unite Nigeria more than a Tinubu or Atiku presidency. That's the reason why Arewa, Ohaneze, and Afenifere are supporting him. Oh I forgot, Obasanjo is also supporting him. Take that Biafra and IPOB talk somewhere else. Nigerians are no longer buying it.

Tinubu will not get up to 20% in Sokoto.

pacesetting:
At the bolded, Obi is winning SE and SS overwhelmingly. Politicians over there already know this. Are you guys not seeing their body language on the mainstream media?

You guys keep underrating the level of support Obi has gained in the SS and SE. In the NC, his popularity among non-party voters keep rising daily.
Your analysis is still based on political structure (governors, senators, rep members, party faithfuls). Even some of the party faithfuls are gradually being converted - a case study of one of Okowa's aids.

You also did not factor in the level of unprecedented voting turnout we expect in the South and other regions. Let me ask you, has there been more than 50% voter turnout among card holders in any Nigerian election in recent times? More people are voting this time, and they are not party members.

No issues, Feb 2023 is not far again.

Party structure matters a lot in African politics, beyond that, ethnicity, religion and money, etc. plays a major impact. Obi currently lacks the advantage of party structure and the other aforementioned criteria that influence election outcome. Ask yourself the bitter question, how many of the political gladiators/elites are currently with Peter Obi and involved in his campaign ? The bitter answer will tell you that they don't believe in him and think he will not win. If they do, you would have seen a lot of them decamping to the Labour Party just like they did for the APC prior to 2015 election

They will get votes, but it's too insignificant and inconsequential to change anything, that's why I didn't include them

pacesetting:
So in your flawed analysis, Obi and Kwankwaso will both pull 0%? That's why I advise people to smoke only what their brain can take. But them no dey hear.

It is delusion that will make a person predict Atiku to win in South South that is even more obidient than the South East

Onovo3:
Similar to to my view as well. The worst that will happen to Atiku in the Southern part of Nigeria is to have a draw with Tinubu and Obi. This is because, Tinubu will definitely win the South West, While Atiku will come 2nd with good number of votes there. Obi will not fly beyond Lagos in the South West. However, Obi could likelydefinitely have an upper hand in the South East. The worst case for Atiku in the South East is second position. [s]Atiku will definitely win the South South[/s]Delusional! with Tinubu/Obi battling for the second position. Overall, Atiku's ability to get reasonable votes from the South West, and South East couple with his victory in South South would put him at a comfortable edge in the South.

The North would be the decider for 2023 ! Who wins the North carry's the day !

Yes, the northern governors and senators are with Atiku because they personally visited you and told u or they called u on phone

Tambuwal supported Atiku because he knows Wike doesn't stand the slightest chance of winning presidency, it had nothing to do with north vs south! What do u have to say about southerners that worked against Wike?

Ogakaycce:
I think is you that doesn't know anything about election and northerners.

You see all those APC governors and senators that tinubu dey use keep hope, most of them are secretly working for Atiku. That's north for you.
They're always united when it comes to there interest.
I hope you saw what tambuwal did to wike, wike fought Atiku in 2019 PDP primary and also insisted that the venue must be in PH because he want tambuwal to be PDP flag bearer.

How did he later pay wike pay wike back.

Me and you know that buhari never want tinubu to take over from him.

Kaduna governor has warned tinubu to throw in the towel.

My point is: until the south unit the north will continue dey dribble them like : Ameachi against GEJ, oshomole against onyegu, wike against secondus etc

In respective of there political parties

THIS election is between Peter Obi and ATIKU....

Atiku will win with a slim margin because of a northerners vote...

Ayodeoba:
tinubu did not only formed APC with buhari,he also ensured that apc won the presidential election, tinubu this time is the next person after buhari tenure,that's why you see buhari coming to campaign for tinubu,there re still large numbers of people who still respect buhari and will do everything he says in the north.

Buhari and cabal placed Atiku on PDP, then placed Shettima as standby president in APC.
CONTINUE WITH YOUR DELUSION OF BUHARI SUPPORTING ASIWAJU TINUBU.

At the bolded, this is where I draw my curtains and know that your arguments will never be reasonable. Have a good day.

asanausana91:
Arewa are not supporting him. Obasanjo is a devil s[/b]o whoever he supports Wil not win just like 2019.
Btw, Peter Obi and obj are killers.
[b]Obj killed Zaki-biam and Udi while Peter Obi killed 89 youths in Anambara and dumped their bodies in Ezu river.

wonder233:
It is delusion that will make a person predict Atiku to win in South South that is even more obidient than the South East

You can say anything you like, but you can't change fact. Obi will not win the South South ! that is a delusion of grandeur ! I am from the South South, and understand the politics of the area !

id911:
He can. South is not one and they don't vote like Northerners. Bayelsa and Cross River for example could go Atiku way especially Bayelsa. In Delta where his VP candidate comes from, Atiku might likely win there too or come close although majority of my friends in Delta who are diehard PDP supporters vow to vote Obi.

Your last statement here summarizes the reasons why Atiku is unlikely to win any state in the South. Remember we are talking about presidential election.

Which state in the South South if I may ask?

Onovo3:
You can say anything you like, but you can't change fact. Obi will not win the South South ! that is a delusion of grandeur ! I am from the South South, and understand the politics of the area !

Onovo3:
In my analysis, I carefully explain the worst case for Atiku in the South is a draw where his votes and that of Tinubu and Obi would cancel out. The Northern political direction would decide 2023 !

Yes.

Parachoko:
You're not making sense

Till then!

Nyamuri:
What makes you think the north can't support someone else?

It has always been their pattern. Except when we have all the candidates from other regions.

donaldking100:
YOU ARE A LIAR BRO.
All your posts on nairaland show you are a P.D.P supporter.
Stop the unnecessary lies please.

Ok. No problem.

pacesetting:
Atiku is not winning a single state in the South.

Till then

pacesetting:
Don't worry. You will know how far Obi has gone in this election when campaigns for all parties get heated. As a pointer, did you watch what the crowd gathering at the recent PDP rally in Uyo was singing?

Don't worry

9jii:
Tinubu will win Borno,yobe,jigawa,kebbi,zamfara and Katsina, kwara,kogi, Niger and maybe Nasarawa. Bank it

I can bet it with my life that

TINUBU won't win Jigawa, Kebbi, Zamfara, Nasarawa, Niger and Katsina. Even Kwara because of the Fulani population.