₦airaland Forum

garfield1:
In benue,the apc senatorial candidates udende,zam and Dan onjeh are very popular.gov ortom has abandoned atiku,no one is campaigning for atiku.david mark daughter is in apc...
As for,crs it is my state.the pdp here is in the hands of wike.atiku is on his own...
In gombe with sen goje and gov yahaya I'm apc,tinubu will edge atiku as the people of southern gombe are divided

You better tell Tinubu to pick a Christian to even have any change of penetrating SE, NC and SS.
He will be beaten in NW and NE because not Kwankwaso and Atiku

Owologbo:
lol. Is like you are taking SS as people without their own mind. Asari will do what?

I am from ss.asari, his sister and ojukaye control kalabari.asari has declared for tinubu

Wow this is your analysis is unbiased I can't help but agree

Osamabinladenik:
Show me data

Show yours first

Landowner101:
Obi is so small that Obasanjo, Afenifere is endorsing him, while your incompetent tinubu with his muslim muslim ticket is the one that his so Big that wike and amaechi will work for, funny people everywhere.

hiss ,
Is it not because of wike, obi ran away from pdp,
Ameachi can't even work for atiku, not to talk of obi.
Is like you're too small to understand politics

Landowner101:
We were talking Atiku vs Tinubu here in north western states, stop trying to deviate.

Kwankwaso is a factor.atiku can't win like buhari.only narrowly

All these online analysis is not making any sense.
Imaginations are far different from reality. All these places you are giving percentage to LP are just out of sentiment and online analysis because they are all ruled by either PDP or APC.
The major political big wings in these states are definitely going to fight for their own party while they leave the other parties to do whatever they like.

Though I want PO to win and let's try something new, the big question is can he really win.

So far so good all we see is people defecting for pdp to apc and vice versa. Nothing like defecting to LP.

The executive arm of government, the legislative arm, the judicial arm, local government etc are all under pdp or apc and these are the people that know how to run the underground elections. What PO has are just sincere people who really want him against all other candidates for a change. But can there mere sincere people make it happen?

Truth be told, we want PO for a change but it's going to be very hard for him if you really understand how politics work in the Nigerian system. This is the reason you can imagine why someone like Tinubu will be so confident of himself with a Muslim/Muslim ticket when he knows many Nigerians are not happy about it but believes his knowledge of underground politics can work for him.

We can only hope and pray for God to give of the best among the candidates that will move Nigeria forward.

So what's the result of this subjective projection, what % of votes goes to each of the Frontline parties?

Osamabinladenik:
1. Southeast
Abia: LP 75:,
PDP: 15%,
others: 10%

Anambra:
LP: 80%,
others 20%

Imo:
LP: 70%
APC: 20%,
others: 10%

Ebonyi:
LP: 70%
APC: 20%
Others:10%

Enugu:
LP: 75%
PDP: 15%
Others: 10%
Reasons: Because Peter Obi is very popular here and people won't vote for a muslim-muslim ticket. PDP still has some voters here hence I'll be distant second. Tinubu is not popular in this region at all but some APC states like Imo and Ebonyi will give him little votes because of APC structure.

2. Southwest

Lagos:
APC: 60%
LP: 35%
Others: 15%

Ogun:
APC: 65%
LP:25%
Others: 10%

Osun
APC: 65%
PDP:15%
LP: 15%
Others: 5%

Ondo
APC: 60%
LP: 25%
Others: 15%

Oyo
APC: 50%
PDP: 20%
LP: 25%
Others: 10%

Ekiti
APC: 70%
LP: 20%
PDP: 10%

Reasons: while this is Tinubu' region, many people won't vote him because of his antecedents, Muslim-muslim ticket and again. LP will be second here because of these.
APC will win for tribalistic reason anyways.

3. North Central

Kwara
APC: 65%
PDP: 20%
Others: 15%

Kogi
APC: 35%
PDP: 30%
LP: 25%
Others: 10%

Nasarawa
PDP: 30%
APC: 30%
LP: 30%
NNPP: 10%

Abuja:
LP: 40%
PDP: 30%
APC: 20%
NNPP: 10%

Niger
APC: 35%
PDP: 35%
LP: 15%
NNPP: 15%

Benue
LP: 55%
PDP: 25%
Others: 20%

Plateau
LP: 35%
APC: 30%
PDP: 20%
Others: 15%

This will be the toughest region to call, LP will get votes in Christian dominated part of North Central, APC will get votes from APC states, PDP will also get votes because of some northern influence. There will be no clear winner here.

Northeast

Borno
APC: 50%
PDP: 30%
NNPP: 10%

Adamawa:
PDP: 70%
APC: 10%
NNPP: 10%
LP: 10%

Yobe
PDP: 50%
APC: 30%
NNPP: 15%
LP: 5%

Gombe
PDP: 50%
APC: 30%
NNPP: 15%
LP: 5%

Taraba
PDP: 50%
LP: 30%
APC: 10%
NNPP: 10%
Others: 5%

Bauchi
PDP: 60%
APC: 15%
NNPP: 15%
Others: 10%

Reason: this region is Atikus region, he will get votes based on tribalism, however APC will become second because of existing structure there. Kwankwaso is all a little bit popular here while LP won't get much from this region.

Southsouth

Rivers
LP: 60%
PDP: 25%
Others: 15%

Akwa ibom
LP: 50%
PDP: 40%
Others 10%

Edo
LP: 45%
PDP: 35%
APC: 15%
Others: 5%

Bayelsa
LP: 50%
PDP: 40%
Others: 10%

Delta
LP: 50%
PDP: 40%
Others: 10%

Crossriver
LP: 55%
PDP: 25%
APC: 10%
Others: 10%
Reasons: There's a big PDP structure here, however the people love Peter Obi hence he will get most votes. APC won't do well here at all.


Northwest

Kano
NNPP: 45%
APC: 30%
PDP: 20%
Others: 5%

Kaduna
APC: 30%
NNPP: 25%
PDP: 20%
LP: 15%

Jigawa
NNPP: 30%
APC: 30%
PDP: 30%
Others: 10%

Kebbi:
APC: 35%
PDP: 35%
NNPP: 20%
Others: 10%

Katsina:
APC: 40%
PDP: 35%
NNPP: 15%
Others: 10%

Sokoto
PDP: 70%
NNPP: 15%
Others: 15%

Zamfara

PDP: 40%
APC: 30%
NNPP: 15%
Others: 10%

Reason: Atiku will get a lot of votes here because of his popularity and Fulani heritage. Kwankwaso will also get votes as he's very popular here but still lacks structure. APC will get votes for Tinubu, however Atiku will most likely win this region.
Obi won't do well here.


Verdict: While I want Peter Obi to win this election and I think he's the best candidate, but Atiku seem to have the best chance because most of our voters especially in the north are not well informed, they don't know what they want hence they will vote along tribal lines.
I see Atiku winning because only PDP has the ability to secure 25% votes in 24% states and still have most numbers. If this doesn't happen, I see a rerun between PDP and LP.
Tinubu will be 3rd because Kwankwaso is going to be a spoiler for him in Northwest and Northeast, Tinubu is depending very much on this two regions to win, Atiku and kwankwaso will give him a tough fight.

Thanks for this very realistic analysis.

The only thing is that I think you reduced Obi’s votes in Southeast. And I don’t also believe Atiku will do the numbers you are giving to him in Southwest.

But realistically, it’s looking like an Atiku victory but Obi is following very closely.

2023 election is clearly between Atiku and Obi.

garfield1:
How can you say binani is not campaigning for tinubu when her victory depends on tinubu winning? Apc have bigwigs like nyarkos,ribadu,ex gov bindow,boss gida,hon namdas,sen bent...the Christians of numan will divide votes.

Apc is very strong here esp with bwacha and hon shiddi joining apc and sen ikenya dumping pdp

I knew you know nothing about those places.

Firstly Binani's victory doesn't depend on Tinubu, secondly it appears you are not aware she has resigned as APC Presidential coordinator in Adamawa. Murtala Nyarko is no longer active in politics, Ribadu is a light weight and Bindow is flirting with the Atiku camp.

It's funny how you people analyse stuff, Christians in Numan will leave their brother who has a Christian on his ticket to vote for a yoruba man carrying a mulim mulim ticket? Funny!

Bwacha is who you rely on for Taraba?

Osamabinladenik:
Buhari is not Tinubu.

Buhari was more sellable in 2015 than TINUBU now. Tinubu don too brag and play tribal cards.

Nigerians don't wise and BVAS don show

we are talking about south south.
Tinubu is more sellable in South
South.
How did you expect a southerner to prefer a fulani than any southerner.
Tinubu is getting 40% in South south,
While obi and atiku will share 60%

Osamabinladenik:
online polls are good, but we cannot overrule the Nigeria effect and rigging as well.

This election is between PDP and LP to win. Had Atiku not emerged, Tinubu would have cleared Northwest and Northeast because those guys are not sensible voters by average. Now they have to chose their person against APC structure, this is when Tinubu started losing the election. APC go try, but their bad performance and Tinubu's image will be used against them a lot, even in the north.

Had Obi not emerged from Labour Party, The election would have been over before it started because it automatically means that southeast and southsouth will vote for Atiku. He will beat Tinubu to stupor.

The emergency of Obi favours Tinubu, in many ways. He wouldn't have had any chance at all

You are right again

ganisucks:
I laff when I see people shouting structchulk up and down. They don't know what they are up against. They don't know what Klaus Schwaab and George Soros can do. By the time they see buses packed with voters going to every polling station, their eye will clear. When for every one APC paid voter, there are 10 LP voters, they will finally start using their brain.

Wetin bring Klaus Schwaab and George Soros into Nigerian Election?

Penguin2:
Thanks for this very realistic analysis.

The only thing is that I think you reduced Obi’s votes in Southeast. And I don’t also believe Atiku will do the numbers you are giving to him in Southwest.

But realistically, it’s looking like an Atiku victory but Obi is following very closely.

2023 election is clearly between Atiku and Obi.

that is the beginning of the foolishness of idiotic pigs.
So from the result of 2019, pdp got 90% from south east and south south.
Just to remind you, apc will get 40% in South south and 30% in South east.
Pdp and labour will share 60% in South south and 70% in South east

garfield1:
In benue,the apc senatorial candidates udende,zam and Dan onjeh are very popular.gov ortom has abandoned atiku,no one is campaigning for atiku.david mark daughter is in apc...
As for,crs it is my state.the pdp here is in the hands of wike.atiku is on his own...
In gombe with sen goje and gov yahaya I'm apc,tinubu will edge atiku as the people of southern gombe are divided

Udende without resources will pull more votes than Suswam in zone? Zam will also pull more crowd in zone B than Ortom? Yes Ortom is currently at loggerheads with Atiku but this is to no benefit of APC, note that Ayu is also from zone B and the current senator there has pledged his support for Atiku. As for Dan Onjeh in zone C, it will be an insult to even argue with you about that one having any influence above a combination of Abba Moro and David Mark.

You know nothing about Gombe, just rest on that one!

garfield1:
You lie sir.I told you bvas is an upgrade on card reader.if it doesnt read your fingerprint,then it can scan your face.it is bimodal hence the B.it does not vote,it only accredits voters.it can be hacked.you yourself said it minimizes rigging,it doesnt stop it.before results are transmitted live,people can manipulate it

He told you simple thing…

Can you give your analysis from a non-rigging perspective?

Owologbo:
I'm an Obidient, but his analysis is fair.
A lot can still happen before next year though.

Same thing I said.

His analysis seems very realistic.

But with new alliances likely to happen before February next year, those figures can change greatly

Osamabinladenik:
I Run a TV that has been doing polls in the north and it seem to me that they still vote hugely along tribal lines. Atiku will win there

Presently, Atiku is the favourite to win but it seems you are underrating Tinubu and APC.

In SS, I think PDP will win Delta, Akwa Ibom and Bayelsa with Labour party coming second in those states.

The Governors of those states have a point to prove to Atiku and PDP. They will deliver their states notwithstanding Obi popularity.

In NE, I expect APC to win Yobe. PDP has not won any election in the state since 1999 and with Shettima in APC ticket, the state and Borno will vote APC.
However Atiku will win Bauchi, Gombe, Adamawa and Taraba.

In NW, Atiku will win Kaduna, Sokoto and probably Jigawa. Tinubu will win Zamfara and Kebbi. Those two states are APC strongholds. Katsina and Kano are battle grounds.
Hence Atiku has to get more votes than people are predicting in SS/ SE to win the election convincingly.

kcnwaigbo:
you are dreaming!! The BVAS automatically records all accredited voters.Nothing there is manual

You that is in reality I hope you saw were I said the votes and not the people.
Accredited voters doesn't translate to votes as from those actedited voters, there would be some void votes, and some may not even vote after being actedited (yeah it's a possibility) after the accreditation of a voter, then he/she proceed to vote. After counting of votes, the INEC official then input the counted votes into the BVAS.
Hope you understand now?

Penguin2:
He told you simple thing…

Can you give your analysis from a non-rigging perspective?

He knows APC stands no chance from a non-riging

3ple9iner:
You that is in reality I hope you saw were I said the votes and not the people.
Accredited voters doesn't translate to votes as from those actedited voters, there would be some void votes, and some may not even vote after being actedited (yeah it's a possibility) after the accreditation of a voter, then he/she proceed to vote. After counting of votes, the INEC official then input the counted votes into the BVAS.
Hope you understand now?

Oga no counted votes will be inputted into the BVAS.It only accredits voters and stores their information.

The recorded polling unit results will be snapped and sent directly to the INEC portal

Osamabinladenik:
Obi is more competent than Tinubu in all ramifications.

I am a citizen of Lagos from Oponu, Isheri in Alimosho and I was born and bred in Lagos. I don't like sentiments.
Tinubu is a godfather and nepotist, who didn't achieve much in Lagos except creating LCDAs to install touts as chairmen that will work for him as foot soldiers. We can talk little about what Tinubu actually used Lagos revenue to do in terms of infrastructure visavis what Peter Obi did in Anambra state. I know Lagos State very well.
You cannot point to any massive project today in Lagos that Tinubu did with Lagos State money.

In that basis, many yorubas will not vote him

Wow you stay in Isheri!!! But do you know that the Ikotun - Isheri - Igando road was created by Tinubu?
Also do you know millennium school at Egbeda oppiste the Oba palace was built by Tinubu?
You see I don't want Tinubu to rule but I won't because of that downgrade him.
If we are actually serious about change, we would support someone like Christopher Irene.

garfield1:
Atiku can only win narrowly.votes will be divided.that said,pdp is nonexistent in borno and yobe.atiku won't see 25% here.apc is very strong in taraba and Adamawa and will get more than 25% there...tinubu will edge him out in gombe while atiku takes bauchi narrowly
In nw,atiku is not popular.even buhari didnt get 70% in sokoto,how will atiku get that? Atiku will win sokoto narrowly,lose massive in zamfara.
I am ok with se.ss is faulty.obi is nonexistent in bayelsa,its bw apc and pdp.apc will beat pdp in edo and rivers.obi can't win akwa ibom.if he wins cross river,it will be narrow with apc behind.apc will beat pdp in benue

LOL..Obi can't win Akwa Ibom? Your delusions were coat and tie. APC will hardly get 15% in all the SS states..

That guy even overrated projected APC's performance in Imo by givinv them 20%. Where APC wan see 20% of Imo votes? Oru East? Orlu zone? Orsu?
From Uzodinma that will lose his own polling unit in Omuma and Oru East LGA and Orlu senatorial zone where he has been killing his own people? Bwahahahaha!

Deluded mugu with his usual 'make-me-happy tales'....

buhariguy:
hiss ,
Is it not because of wike, obi ran away from pdp,
Ameachi can't even work for atiku, not to talk of obi.
Is like you're too small to understand politics

Yet wike invited Peter Obi while he commissioned his new project.
Amaechi muteness after the apc presidential primaries should tell you he's already backing out of apc.

Osamabinladenik:
ID APC gets 10% in Rivers, come back to this post and call me a bastard.

Tinubu is practically unsellable in the south except Southwest on tribal basis

Lol!

You just told the guy the honest truth but he likes to argue foolishly.

Folks like him are those who say Obi can’t win even Anambra.

Imagine him saying Wike and Amaechi are too big to work for Obi… as how?

kcnwaigbo:
Oga no counted votes will be inputted into the BVAS.It only accredits voters and stores their information.

The recorded polling unit results will be snapped and sent directly to the INEC portal

I know if I argue with you from now till tomorrow you wouldn't agree with me.

3ple9iner:
Wow you stay in Isheri!!! But do you know that the Ikotun - Isheri - Igando road was created by Tinubu?
Also do you know millennium school at Egbeda oppiste the Oba palace was built by Tinubu?
You see I don't want Tinubu to rule but I won't because of that downgrade him.
If we are actually serious about change, we would support someone like Christopher Irene.

It wasn't created by Tinubu, it as rehabilitated by Tinubu and also fashola. Jakande created the road
That been said, you cannot talk of any massive project Tinubu did with Lagos money today still in Lagos

garfield1:
Kwankwaso is a factor.atiku can't win like buhari.only narrowly

That's the reason, the northern elites are telling kwankwanso to step down.

buhariguy:
we are talking about south south.
Tinubu is more sellable in South
South.
How did you expect a southerner to prefer a fulani than any southerner.
Tinubu is getting 40% in South south,
While obi and atiku will share 60%

lol

Osamabinladenik:
wait, did you just sat APC will win Edo and Rivers?

That guy is high on dry plantain leaf That's the most usele*s comment on this thread...

Osamabinladenik:
Obi is more competent than Tinubu in all ramifications.

I am a citizen of Lagos from Oponu, Isheri in Alimosho and I was born and bred in Lagos. I don't like sentiments.
Tinubu is a godfather and nepotist, who didn't achieve much in Lagos except creating LCDAs to install touts as chairmen that will work for him as foot soldiers. We can talk little about what Tinubu actually used Lagos revenue to do in terms of infrastructure visavis what Peter Obi did in Anambra state. I know Lagos State very well.
You cannot point to any massive project today in Lagos that Tinubu did with Lagos State money.

In that basis, many yorubas will not vote him

This is the MOST Laughable comment here on NL so far!!!
Keep comparing HERO BEER (in HIS family's Biz) with a net LOSS to Lekki free Trade Zone
You must be high on Cotonou weed!!!!

Lololol!!!!!