I will try to be as concise and straight to the point as possible….

As the 2023 elections approach, every supporter of the frontline candidates believes his candidate will win but only a few are able to practically, logically and empirically demonstrate their candidate’s road to victory.

But because I, and most other Obi supporters, am not in that category, I bring you Obi’s realistic and unexaggerated path to victory.

First, of all the 4 frontline candidates, Obi is the only one not contesting his region of Southeast with anyone. And when you consider the fact that the voting pattern of the Southeast and Southsouth has always almost been the same since the 60s, plus the results of several polls already conducted by different bodies, and with facts on ground in the different streets of the Southsouth region, you will agree that Obi is not contesting Southeast and Southsouth with anyone.

In the Southwest, different results of several polls, and facts from the streets of Southwest indicate that Obi is closely behind Tinubu in contest of votes of the region. Even with 2 sitting PDP governors in the region, Atiku seems to be unsurprisingly out of contest for the region’s votes. And even if he ends up garnering votes from the region, the votes he would garner might be too insignificant to be consequential.

In the North Central, even the oppositions have accepted that Obi will win Benue, Plateau and Abuja. He’s also expected to come second in Nasarawa and Kogi. A summation of these will give him victory as the overall winner of the North Central.

In the Northwest, Obi would not be expecting much here except from Southern Kaduna, Southern Kebbi and some votes from the brothers and sisters of Datti Baba-Ahmed in Zaria (yes, we are not expecting much from Datti).

In the Northeast, Obi is not expecting much, just like Northwest, but might do better here than in Northwest. With good showing, or even outright victory, expected in Taraba, then votes from Adamawa Christians, Southern Gombe, Southern Borno and Southern Bauchi, Obi will not do badly in this region.

In conclusion, I want you to realize that Atiku is contesting his Northeast region with Tinubu and even Kwankwaso and Obi. Because Borno and Yobe seem to be gone with Shettima while Obi is likely to take the votes of most Christians in the region while Kwankwaso is not bereft of supporters in the region as well. If anything, Kwankwaso’s outing in Maiduguri was so threatening that Borno government had to seal NNPP office until public outcry made them reverse the decision.

Similarly, Kwankwaso is contesting Northwest with Atiku and Tinubu. It is unarguably a three horse race in this region with none of them sure of victory in the region yet.

In the same vein, Tinubu is contesting Southwest with Obi as results of several polls have shown and as people on ground in the Southwest can testify. If anything, the Muslim Muslim ticket of Tinubu seems to have turned off a lot of Southwest Christians who would have ordinarily voted for him.

But not so with Obi; almost all of the candidates agrees that campaigning in the Southeast is a waste of time and resources because the region is gone with Obi; closely followed by Southsouth.

So, there you have it. Everything I’ve said here is verifiable facts devoid of emotions and exaggerations. And when you have digested it, you would be seeing Peter Obi’s victory staring at you in the face.

Meanwhile, I’d appreciate if respondents stick to countering my position with superior facts and postulation rather than degenerating into throwing illogical tantrums and insults.

Danke!

Penguin is a bird of reason.


Garfield1
Kyase
Tinubuadvocate
Ihordspy
Solvertongue
PandoraObi
NigeriaIsGreat
Okoroawusa
Tinsel
Moh247

Nonetheless he will still fail

Good analysis but Obi is winning not because of anything else but he is the most vibrant of them all.

It's blindingly obvious that Peter Gregory Obi is the next President of Nigeria. I don't expect rival parties to publicly accept this glaring fact, but their consistent attacks on him and his LP platform reveals their knowledge of the fact that he's the only potent threat to their ambitions.

Penguin2:
I’m going to be as concise and straight to the point as possible….

As the 2023 elections approach, every supporter of the frontline candidates believes his candidate will win but only a few are able to practically, logically and empirically demonstrate their candidate’s road to victory.

But because I, and most other Obi supporters, am not in that category, I bring you Obi’s realistic and unexaggerated path to victory.

First, of all the 4 frontline candidates, Obi is the only one not contesting his region of Southeast with anyone. When you consider the fact that the voting pattern of the Southeast and Southsouth has always almost been the same since the 60s, plus the results of several polls already conducted by different bodies, and with facts on ground in the different streets of the Southsouth region, you will agree that Obi is not contesting Southeast and Southsouth with anyone.

In the Southwest, different results of several polls, and facts from the streets of Southwest indicate that Obi is closing behind Tinubu in contest of votes of the region. Even with 2 sitting PDP governors in the region, Atiku seems to be unsurprisingly out of contest for the region’s votes. And even if he ends up garnering votes from the region, the votes he would garner might be too insignificant to be consequential.

In the North Central, even the oppositions have accepted that Obi will win Benue, Plateau and Abuja. He’s also expected to come second in Nasarawa and Kogi. A summation of these will give him victory as the overall winner of the North Central.

In the Northwest, Obi would not be expecting much here except from Southern Kaduna, Southern Kebbi and some votes from the brothers and sisters of Datti Baba-Ahmed in Zaria (yes, we are not expecting much from Datti).

In the Northeast, Obi is not expecting much, just like Northwest, but might do better here than in Northwest. With good showing, or even outright victory, expected in Taraba, then votes from Adamawa Christians, Southern Gombe, Southern Borno and Southern Bauchi, Obi will not do badly in this region.

In conclusion, I want you to realize that Atiku is contesting his Northeast region with Tinubu and even Kwankwaso and Obi. Because Borno and Yobe seem to be gone with Shettima while Obi is likely to take the votes of most Christians in the region while Kwankwaso is not bereft of supporters in the region as well. If anything, Kwankwaso’s outing in Maiduguri was so threatening that Borno government had to seal NNPP office until public outcry made them reverse the decision.

Similarly, Kwankwaso is contesting Northwest with Atiku and Tinubu. It is unarguably a three horse race in this region with none of them sure of victory in the region yet.

In the same vein, Tinubu is contesting Southwest with Obi as results of several polls have shown and as people on ground in the Southwest can testify. If anything, the Muslim Muslim ticket of Tinubu seems to have turned off a lot Southwest Christians who would have ordinarily voted for him.

But not so with Obi; almost all of the candidates agrees that campaigning in the Southeast is a waste of time and resources because the region is gone with Obi; closely followed by Southsouth.

So, there you have it. Everything I’ve said here is verifiable facts devoid of emotions and exaggerations. And when you have digested it, you would be seeing Peter Obi’s victory staring at you in the face.

Meanwhile, I’d appreciate if respondents stick to countering my position with superior facts and postulation rather than degenerating into throwing illogical tantrums and insults.

Danke!

Penguin is a bird of reason.

Nlfpmod
Mynd44
Garfield1
Kyase
Tinubuadvocate
Ihordspy
Solvertongue
PandoraObi
NigeriaIsGreat
Okoroawusa
Tinsel
Moh247

Obi can only win SE and no where else
Let's meet here again in 2023 February 28th

ATIKU Okowa for better Nigeria��

Kyase:


Obi can only win SE and no where else
Let's meet here again in 2023 February 28th

He'll win SS and NC inclusive. I'll gladly wager on that. He'll come second in SW. Everything the OP said is probable, especially the religion factor. No one knows if Kwankwaso would drop out from the race, else BAT would have performed reasonably well in NW.

aspher:


He'll win SS and NC inclusive. I'll gladly wager on that. He'll come second in SW. Everything the OP said is probable, especially the religion factor. No one knows if Kwankwaso would drop out from the race, else BAT would have performed reasonably well in NW.

All these talks will be tested and confirmed by march 2023
Obi won't come second in SW either

First in SE and MAYBE second in SS
He won't smell second anywhere again

Penguin2:
I’m going to be as concise and straight to the point as possible….

As the 2023 elections approach, every supporter of the frontline candidates believes his candidate will win but only a few are able to practically, logically and empirically demonstrate their candidate’s road to victory.

But because I, and most other Obi supporters, am not in that category, I bring you Obi’s realistic and unexaggerated path to victory.

First, of all the 4 frontline candidates, Obi is the only one not contesting his region of Southeast with anyone. When you consider the fact that the voting pattern of the Southeast and Southsouth has always almost been the same since the 60s, plus the results of several polls already conducted by different bodies, and with facts on ground in the different streets of the Southsouth region, you will agree that Obi is not contesting Southeast and Southsouth with anyone.

In the Southwest, different results of several polls, and facts from the streets of Southwest indicate that Obi is closing behind Tinubu in contest of votes of the region. Even with 2 sitting PDP governors in the region, Atiku seems to be unsurprisingly out of contest for the region’s votes. And even if he ends up garnering votes from the region, the votes he would garner might be too insignificant to be consequential.

In the North Central, even the oppositions have accepted that Obi will win Benue, Plateau and Abuja. He’s also expected to come second in Nasarawa and Kogi. A summation of these will give him victory as the overall winner of the North Central.

In the Northwest, Obi would not be expecting much here except from Southern Kaduna, Southern Kebbi and some votes from the brothers and sisters of Datti Baba-Ahmed in Zaria (yes, we are not expecting much from Datti).

In the Northeast, Obi is not expecting much, just like Northwest, but might do better here than in Northwest. With good showing, or even outright victory, expected in Taraba, then votes from Adamawa Christians, Southern Gombe, Southern Borno and Southern Bauchi, Obi will not do badly in this region.

In conclusion, I want you to realize that Atiku is contesting his Northeast region with Tinubu and even Kwankwaso and Obi. Because Borno and Yobe seem to be gone with Shettima while Obi is likely to take the votes of most Christians in the region while Kwankwaso is not bereft of supporters in the region as well. If anything, Kwankwaso’s outing in Maiduguri was so threatening that Borno government had to seal NNPP office until public outcry made them reverse the decision.

Similarly, Kwankwaso is contesting Northwest with Atiku and Tinubu. It is unarguably a three horse race in this region with none of them sure of victory in the region yet.

In the same vein, Tinubu is contesting Southwest with Obi as results of several polls have shown and as people on ground in the Southwest can testify. If anything, the Muslim Muslim ticket of Tinubu seems to have turned off a lot Southwest Christians who would have ordinarily voted for him.

But not so with Obi; almost all of the candidates agrees that campaigning in the Southeast is a waste of time and resources because the region is gone with Obi; closely followed by Southsouth.

So, there you have it. Everything I’ve said here is verifiable facts devoid of emotions and exaggerations. And when you have digested it, you would be seeing Peter Obi’s victory staring at you in the face.

Meanwhile, I’d appreciate if respondents stick to countering my position with superior facts and postulation rather than degenerating into throwing illogical tantrums and insults.

Danke!

Penguin is a bird of reason.

Nlfpmod
Mynd44
Garfield1
Kyase
Tinubuadvocate
Ihordspy
Solvertongue
PandoraObi
NigeriaIsGreat
Okoroawusa
Tinsel
Moh247

Ss is a battle ground sir.pdp seems to lead in delta and aks,lp seems to lead in edo and rivers while crs tilts to apc and bayelsa is between apc and pdp

Kyase:


All these talks will be tested and confirmed by march 2023
Obi won't come second in SW either

First in SE and MAYBE second in SS
He won't smell second anywhere again

He will beat atiku in nc and lagos

garfield1:


He will beat atiku in nc and lagos

Common man
He can't beat Atiku in NC
Or are you underating Atiku

Kyase:


Common man
He can't beat Atiku in NC
Or are you underating Atiku

Which state is atiku sure of in nc apart from maybe plateau

I know is that 2023 is going to be a path defining moment for Nigeria. And the decisions the people will take will define what future awaits them.

garfield1:


Which state is atiku sure of in nc apart from maybe plateau

I can't analyse for PDP but Atiku can't come third behind obi in NC

garfield1:


Which state is atiku sure of in nc apart from maybe plateau

How can Atiku win Plateau..? It's between Tinibu and Obi..

Niger state is his closet bet in NC..
The highest number of state Atiku can win in the north is 6
Adamaw, Taraba, Gombe, Kebbi, Jigawa, Sokoto. In the south, only 2 from (Delta, Aks amd Bayelsa)

Kwankwoso will take 1st or 2nd in Bauchi.

Kyase:

I can't analyse for PDP but Atiku can't come third behind obi in NC

Tinibu is winning NC, but Obi is closely following him..

Obi is the holder of the bag that contains the 11 million votes Atiku was boasting about during the build up to PDP primaries..

Kyase:

I can't analyse for PDP but Atiku can't come third behind obi in NC

This Northern Christain that asslicks Northern Muslim, Obi would win North Central

OP! You are so delusional....
obi won’t even win any state...
he go shock you like thunder...

Kyase:


All these talks will be tested and confirmed by march 2023
Obi won't come second in SW either

First in SE and MAYBE second in SS
He won't smell second anywhere again

Lol!

Do you know that I still feel very stupid that I once used to take you serious; I don’t know if I will ever forgive myself.

If Obi is coming second in Southsouth, then who will win the region?

And if Obi is not coming second in Southwest, who will?

@Penguin2
Obi can't win NC, reason is that, there isn't any state in the region that Obi can boast of a landslide victory, as the case in SE and some SS states..

From all Indications, he is winning Benue, FCT and maybe Plateau.. But can he do that with 50% and above..? I don't think so.. PDP and APC will each, take 25% here..

This is where Tinibu would beat him.. Emilokan is sure of 60% upwards in Kwara, 50% in Kogi,
40% in Niger, and more than 25% in the remaining states of Benue, Plateau, Nasaarawa and FCT.
Obi can't get 25% in all the states of NC but Tinibu can..
Atiku has lesser chance here. Man is now a regional candidate of NE&NW, just like Buhari pre-2015

ImmaculateJOE:

How can Atiku win Plateau..? It's between Tinibu and Obi..

Niger state is his closet bet in NC..
The highest number of state Atiku can win in the north is 6
Adamaw, Taraba, Gombe, Kebbi, Jigawa, Sokoto. In the south, only 2 from (Delta, Aks amd Bayelsa)

Kwankwoso will take 1st or 2nd in Bauchi.

I’m always in awe of what makes you guys think Atiku will win Delta or Akwa Ibom or Bayelsa. Because of Okowa?

If you argue that Atiku will win Delta because of Okowa and Akwa Ibom because of Udom, does it make sense therefore to postulate that Obi will win Kaduna because of Datti and Ogun because of Doyin Okupe?

ImmaculateJOE:

How can Atiku win Plateau..? It's between Tinibu and Obi..

Niger state is his closet bet in NC..
The highest number of state Atiku can win in the north is 6
Adamaw, Taraba, Gombe, Kebbi, Jigawa, Sokoto. In the south, only 2 from (Delta, Aks amd Bayelsa)

Kwankwoso will take 1st or 2nd in Bauchi.

. Look at this one talking bayelsa, both Tinubu and Atiku will be given the Jonathan treatment in bayelsa by the ijaws for their role on removing their son in 2015, you can take this to the bank

You make sense.

I feel ya'.

garfield1:


Ss is a battle ground sir.pdp seems to lead in delta and aks,lp seems to lead in edo and rivers while crs tilts to apc and bayelsa is between apc and pdp

Lol!

I will ask you the question I asked Immaculatejoe, if you think Atiku will win Delta because of Okowa and Akwa Ibom because of Udom, does it make sense therefore to say that Obi will win Kaduna because of Datti and Ogun because of Doyin Okupe?

ImmaculateJOE:
@Penguin2
Obi can't win NC, reason is that, there isn't any state in the region that Obi can boast of a landslide victory, as the case in SE and some SS states..

From all Indications, he is winning Benue, FCT and maybe Plateau.. But can he do that with 50% and above..? I don't think so.. PDP and APC will each, take 25% here..

This is where Tinibu would beat him.. Emilokan is sure of 60% upwards in Kwara, 50% in Kogi,
40% in Niger, and more than 25% in the remaining states of Benue, Plateau, Nasaarawa and FCT.
Obi can't get 25% in all the states of NC but Tinibu can..
Atiku has lesser chance here. Man is now a regional candidate of NE&NW, just like Buhari pre-2015

I agree with you that Atiku is now restricted to NE & NW.

But about Obi winning North Central, I disagree.

Who do you think will come second in Nasarawa? Who do you think will come second in Kogi? With both states having above 40% population of Christians, don’t be surprised to see Obi pull an upset in both states after Atiku and Tinubu have divided Muslim votes.

The only two states Obi might not perform well in the North Central are Kwara and Niger.

Kwara because it is predominantly Yoruba and they are likely to vote majorly for Tinubu. Now, with Saraki dynasty still very much alive, I concede that Saraki will help Atiku come second in Kwara while Obi comes third.

Then in Niger because they are Muslims and I really don’t know who is stronger in the state between Atiku and Tinubu.

Sum these percentages together and you’d realize that Obi is winning North Central.

Again, this is devoid of emotions but empirical postulations.

The greatest delusion/deception of 2023 election is that Atiku or Tinubu will defeat peter Obi in Bayelsa state. Thoughts are free. The ijaws can't wait to take their pound of flesh

Penguin2:
I will try to be as concise and straight to the point as possible….

As the 2023 elections approach, every supporter of the frontline candidates believes his candidate will win but only a few are able to practically, logically and empirically demonstrate their candidate’s road to victory.

But because I, and most other Obi supporters, am not in that category, I bring you Obi’s realistic and unexaggerated path to victory.

First, of all the 4 frontline candidates, Obi is the only one not contesting his region of Southeast with anyone. And when you consider the fact that the voting pattern of the Southeast and Southsouth has always almost been the same since the 60s, plus the results of several polls already conducted by different bodies, and with facts on ground in the different streets of the Southsouth region, you will agree that Obi is not contesting Southeast and Southsouth with anyone.

In the Southwest, different results of several polls, and facts from the streets of Southwest indicate that Obi is closely behind Tinubu in contest of votes of the region. Even with 2 sitting PDP governors in the region, Atiku seems to be unsurprisingly out of contest for the region’s votes. And even if he ends up garnering votes from the region, the votes he would garner might be too insignificant to be consequential.

In the North Central, even the oppositions have accepted that Obi will win Benue, Plateau and Abuja. He’s also expected to come second in Nasarawa and Kogi. A summation of these will give him victory as the overall winner of the North Central.

In the Northwest, Obi would not be expecting much here except from Southern Kaduna, Southern Kebbi and some votes from the brothers and sisters of Datti Baba-Ahmed in Zaria (yes, we are not expecting much from Datti).

In the Northeast, Obi is not expecting much, just like Northwest, but might do better here than in Northwest. With good showing, or even outright victory, expected in Taraba, then votes from Adamawa Christians, Southern Gombe, Southern Borno and Southern Bauchi, Obi will not do badly in this region.

In conclusion, I want you to realize that Atiku is contesting his Northeast region with Tinubu and even Kwankwaso and Obi. Because Borno and Yobe seem to be gone with Shettima while Obi is likely to take the votes of most Christians in the region while Kwankwaso is not bereft of supporters in the region as well. If anything, Kwankwaso’s outing in Maiduguri was so threatening that Borno government had to seal NNPP office until public outcry made them reverse the decision.

Similarly, Kwankwaso is contesting Northwest with Atiku and Tinubu. It is unarguably a three horse race in this region with none of them sure of victory in the region yet.

In the same vein, Tinubu is contesting Southwest with Obi as results of several polls have shown and as people on ground in the Southwest can testify. If anything, the Muslim Muslim ticket of Tinubu seems to have turned off a lot of Southwest Christians who would have ordinarily voted for him.

But not so with Obi; almost all of the candidates agrees that campaigning in the Southeast is a waste of time and resources because the region is gone with Obi; closely followed by Southsouth.

So, there you have it. Everything I’ve said here is verifiable facts devoid of emotions and exaggerations. And when you have digested it, you would be seeing Peter Obi’s victory staring at you in the face.

Meanwhile, I’d appreciate if respondents stick to countering my position with superior facts and postulation rather than degenerating into throwing illogical tantrums and insults.

Danke!

Penguin is a bird of reason.

Nlfpmod
Mynd44
Garfield1
Kyase
Tinubuadvocate
Ihordspy
Solvertongue
PandoraObi
NigeriaIsGreat
Okoroawusa
Tinsel
Moh247

Anakogheri

Penguin2:


Lol!

I will ask you the question I asked Immaculatejoe, if you think Atiku will win Delta because of Okowa and Akwa Ibom because of Udom, does it make sense therefore to say that Obi will win Kaduna because of Datti and Ogun because of Doyin Okupe?

Tinubu BATstards wish Atiku wins some states in the SouthSouth. Note that this is just their mere wish and has nothing to do with situation on the ground.
This also has nothing to do with love for Atiku.
It's actually just the only way they can propagate their delusion that Peter Obi's road to Aso Villa is not as bright as pollsters say it is.

Penguin2:


Lol!

I will ask you the question I asked Immaculatejoe, if you think Atiku will win Delta because of Okowa and Akwa Ibom because of Udom, does it make sense therefore to say that Obi will win Kaduna because of Datti and Ogun because of Doyin Okupe?

Datti and okupe are political nonentities in their states,they dont have any electoral value,no one knows them.okowa dominates delta politics,has a stranglehold on rigging.tpu saw how he defeated ibori.atiku is winning aks not because of udom but because the people prefer pdp.they are not very receptive of obi.can't you see the way people in rivers and Edo are dying for obi?

OnyeAshuaUru:

Tinubu BATstards wish Atiku wins some states in the SouthSouth. Note that this is just their mere wish and has nothing to do with situation on the ground.
This also has nothing to do with love for Atiku.
It's actually just the only way they can propagate their delusion that Peter Obi's road to Aso Villa is not as bright as pollsters say it is.

No,tinubu fans wish atiku loses all ss states

garfield1:


Datti and okupe are political nonentities in their states,they dont have any electoral value,no one knows them.okowa dominates delta politics,has a stranglehold on rigging.tpu saw how he defeated ibori.atiku is winning aks not because of udom but because the people prefer pdp.they are not very receptive of obi.can't you see the way people in rivers and Edo are dying for obi?

Okowa is igbo. Why would an Igbo vote Okowa for vice president, while they could vote and win the presidency itself

ImmaculateJOE:

How can Atiku win Plateau..? It's between Tinibu and Obi..

Niger state is his closet bet in NC..
The highest number of state Atiku can win in the north is 6
Adamaw, Taraba, Gombe, Kebbi, Jigawa, Sokoto. In the south, only 2 from (Delta, Aks amd Bayelsa)

Kwankwoso will take 1st or 2nd in Bauchi.

True.but plateau is open like nasarawa and fct.any of the three can win.I don't trust plateau north people.they may just vote atiku last minute.those nc people are not reliable that's why they dont give bloc votes.
I dont see atiku winning kebbi.bagudu has silenced him.the party structure is being struggled by haliru and turaki and sens aliero and abdullahi are no more on the ballot.his best bet on the nw is sokoto.he can also win jigawa but kwankwaso is also strong here and o dont know how strong lamido is..
He should win taraba but a lot of Christians are with obi and if bwacha is on the ballot,tinubu will have a big chance.I dont see atiku winning gombe.he has more chance in bauchi but kwankwaso is also threatening here.
True niger is his closest bet but it will be very tight.