₦airaland Forum

Aufbauh:
It's obvious from your counsel that Atiku and Obi are one and same stock.
This is the advantage Tinubu will have in the first ballot that Atiku and Obi are definitely splitting their collective vote.

The only abnormally in the prediction or projection is that analysts are giving Atiku more of Obi vote in the south and equally overrating same Atiku in the North.

Aufbauh:
You guys stayed in one enclave and concoct some 'feeling good assumption'.
Atiku has contested election twice and his result from the North were abysmally pitiful.

In 2019 Atiku got 7% & 8% from Borno & Yobe state respectively, two states from his own geopolitical zone. He managed to secure 25% only in 6 states out of the 13 states in the NW and NE. Was it not a Fulani by then?

Agreed Buhari is on the ballot, but if you and your brother contested an election in your house and he thrashed you this way then it shows that your people did not regard you as such.

Even in kano the election is purely between APC and NNPP. At least try and be calling people who resides in the North instead of this your fantasy.

Workch:
Tinubu cannot win any region outside of southwest.

I can put my last card on it.
He will be beaten silly to stupor in NC, NW, NE, SS and SE.
The best he can get in NW and NE is 25%
The best he can get in SS and SE is 10%.
You better don't put hope on APC structure.

You know deep down that this is true.

VERDA:
Don't let those northern governors deceive you guys, most northern populace are rooting for Kwankwaso and Atiku.

Aufbauh:
You guys stayed in one enclave and concoct some 'feeling good assumption'.
Atiku has contested election twice and his result from the North were abysmally pitiful.

In 2019 Atiku got 7% & 8% from Borno & Yobe state respectively, two states from his own geopolitical zone. He managed to secure 25% only in 6 states out of the 13 states in the NW and NE. Was it not a Fulani by then?

Agreed Buhari is on the ballot, but if you and your brother contested an election in your house and he thrashed you this way then it shows that your people did not regard you as such.

Even in kano the election is purely between APC and NNPP. At least try and be calling people who resides in the North instead of this your fantasy.

kingmaster2009:
Oponu


So, Shetima will be playing in the Nw and NE

Foolish comments

MikeofAfrica:
My Yoruba brothers, northerners are not fools when it comes to politics.

DaddyFreeze2020:
LP or PDP will occupy Aso Rock after May 29th. Its visible to the blind and audible to the deaf. No Nigerian can dispute that fact.

APC will really work hard and waste money on campaigns, but won't win.


That is what will want. Is still a win win. LP is preferable.

Buhari is the last president APC will ever produce. Urchies go and mark this somewhere.

Aufbauh:
The problem I have with most political neophytes is poor sense of judgement.

You can't even decipher where I come from? I'm a northerner myself so save your brain from the stress of misjudgment.

Again If I may ask when is the last time you supported or predicted a presidential candidate and he won?

FYI, the northerners are the most reliable and dependable ally anyone can have either in business or politics. Our words are our bond.

The same northern governors that insisted that power should return to the south after Buhari with a communiqué are the same you feel there are rooting for Atiku.

We don't play politics of emotion but of interest. If your interest is more protected with an outsider so be it.

MikeofAfrica:
My Yoruba brothers, northerners are not fools when it comes to politics.

They love Buhari and Kwankwaso more than Atiku but at the same time, they will never sacrifice an Atiku for a Tinubu. No matter how you dislike your son, you will not give his inheritance to an outsider.

Have you not seen how most northern APC Governors are avoiding Tinubu? Have you seen the Governors of Kebbi, Jigawa, Gombe, Yobe and Niger with Tinubu lately.

Even Ganduje who claims to be a core Tinubu loyalist fought hard to ensure Atiku's son in law emerge as the deputy Governorship candidate of APC in Kano.

Do you even know that some APC northern Governors financed Atiku's victory in their respective states during PDP primary. It was only after Atiku emerge victorious in PDP that they agreed to seed the APC ticket to a southern.

By February, you will learn that Atiku is a true son of the north.

Aufbauh:
The problem I have with most political neophytes is poor sense of judgement.

You can't even decipher where I come from? I'm a northerner myself so save your brain from the stress of misjudgment.

Again If I may ask when is the last time you supported or predicted a presidential candidate and he won?

FYI, the northerners are the most reliable and dependable ally anyone can have either in business or politics. Our words are our bond.

The same northern governors that insisted that power should return to the south after Buhari with a communiqué are the same you feel there are rooting for Atiku.

We don't play politics of emotion but of interest. If your interest is more protected with an outsider so be it.

Aufbauh:
You guys stayed in one enclave and concoct some 'feeling good assumption'.
Atiku has contested election twice and his result from the North were abysmally pitiful.

In 2019 Atiku got 7% & 8% from Borno & Yobe state respectively, two states from his own geopolitical zone. He managed to secure 25% only in 6 states out of the 13 states in the NW and NE. Was it not a Fulani by then?

Agreed Buhari is on the ballot, but if you and your brother contested an election in your house and he thrashed you this way then it shows that your people did not regard you as such.

Even in kano the election is purely between APC and NNPP. At least try and be calling people who resides in the North instead of this your fantasy.

MikeofAfrica:
Why did you avoid the issues that I raised. Are the northern Governors that I mentioned not avoiding Tinubu? Is Ganduje political son not Atiku son in law?

Are you really sure the north is reliable in Nigeria politic. The same north that have been supporting her own to be president since 2003? The same north that have not vote a Southerner for president since 2003?

OBJ survived the rage of the north in 2003 due to the block votes he got from SS/SE. The north could not wait for a Southerner to have a second term. When Yaradua died in 2010, the north promised Jonathan their support.

However in 2011, it took the block votes of SS/ SE and massive rigging for Jonathan to survive the rage of the north. In 2015, the north got the better of Jonathan.

Hence it is only gullible Southerners that will believe you. In 2007, OBJ campaigned for Yaradua with all his strength. How many times have you seen Buhari campaigning for Tinubu?

kcnwaigbo:
Oga I don't even see the possibility of Tinubu making it to the run-off should the need arise

Aufbauh:
Northern governors avoiding Tinubu? What a joke! El rufai & co followed Tinubu to the Chatham house in UK and have being visible in all his campaign tour.

Ganduje is Atiku's in-law and so? We don't play emotive politics. Even Buhari and Atiku are In-laws too.

The north voted MKO, Obasanjo and GEJ.
What befell GEJ in the north 2015 was because he reneged on the zoning, so both northern PDP and APC politicians went against him.

In 2011 the North voted massively for GEJ that he won Adamawa, Taraba, Plateau, Benue, Kogi and have 35% average in most of the core northern states.

You can see the result of the 2011 presidential election.

Workch:
Lol, Adamawa, Taraba, Benue, Kogi are not typical core northern states, there are a lot of Christians there.
If anyone would get those Christian votes, it won't be Tinubu

Agbegbaorogboye:
It's true though. If it goes to a run off, it will certainly favor Atiku.
But the only way I can see it going to a run off is if Atiku wins the majority votes ahead of Tinubu cause I can't see how Tinubu will fail to get 25% in 24 states when APCshit controls 22 states. The incumbency in those 22 states will easily get them 25% while 2 states can easily be gotten to complete the needed number.
Obi might also get the majority votes but his challenge is the 25% in 24 states as well.

Aufbauh:
So you think that anyone who's supporting Tinubu is from SW? I'm a northerner myself so there's no need for an outsider to tell me what's feasible in my region.

It is noteworthy that Tinubu will win all the states governed by the APC in the north with the slight exception of kano state which will be between him and Kwankwaso. Atiku is not even in contention there.

The SE & SS are ordinarily the PDP stronghold from time immemorial so the Obi influence will mainly affect the man (Atiku) who normally enjoys the spoil.

Tinubu will get more majority votes from the entire north than from the entire south.

Aufbauh:
Calm down and read my comment well instead of rushing in ignorance to reply me.

I'm a Christian from the north and I'll be voting Tinubu. Did you get the message well?

You don't rely on Christian community in the north to give anyone a bloc vote as we are of independent minded than our Muslim brothers.
We'd vote base on our own personal conviction and perception, not what one cleric will tell us.

Workch:
In NW and NE, Atiku will beat Tinubu silly.
In SE and SS, Obi will beat Tinubu silly.

Where do you guys get confidence from? NC? Lol

Aufbauh:
Northern governors avoiding Tinubu? What a joke! El rufai & co followed Tinubu to the Chatham house in UK and have being visible in all his campaign tour.

Ganduje is Atiku's in-law and so? We don't play emotive politics. Even Buhari and Atiku are In-laws too.

The north voted MKO, Obasanjo and GEJ.
What befell GEJ in the north 2015 was because he reneged on the zoning, so both northern PDP and APC politicians went against him.

In 2011 the North voted massively for GEJ that he won Adamawa, Taraba, Plateau, Benue, Kogi and have 35% average in most of the core northern states.

You can see the result of the 2011 presidential election.

Aufbauh:
Northern governors avoiding Tinubu? What a joke! El rufai & co followed Tinubu to the Chatham house in UK and have being visible in all his campaign tour.

Ganduje is Atiku's in-law and so? We don't play emotive politics. Even Buhari and Atiku are In-laws too.

The north voted MKO, Obasanjo and GEJ.
What befell GEJ in the north 2015 was because he reneged on the zoning, so both northern PDP and APC politicians went against him.

In 2011 the North voted massively for GEJ that he won Adamawa, Taraba, Plateau, Benue, Kogi and have 35% average in most of the core northern states.

You can see the result of the 2011 presidential election.

MikeofAfrica:
Why did you avoid the issues that I raised. Are the northern Governors that I mentioned not avoiding Tinubu? Is Ganduje political son not Atiku son in law?

Are you really sure the north is reliable in Nigeria politic. The same north that have been supporting her own to be president since 2003? The same north that have not vote a Southerner for president since 2003?

OBJ survived the rage of the north in 2003 due to the block votes he got from SS/SE. The north could not wait for a Southerner to have a second term. When Yaradua died in 2010, the north promised Jonathan their support.

However in 2011, it took the block votes of SS/ SE and massive rigging for Jonathan to survive the rage of the north. In 2015, the north got the better of Jonathan.

Hence it is only gullible Southerners that will believe you. In 2007, OBJ campaigned for Yaradua with all his strength. How many times have you seen Buhari campaigning for Tinubu?

MikeofAfrica:
FreedomfromtheT

You are not talking to a Kid. Adamawa, Taraba,Plateau, Benue and Kogi are not core northern states. They are middle belt states dominated by christians or with a huge Christian population.

From the result you posted, did Jonathan win any of these States dominated by Hausa/ Fulani tribe - Kano, Kaduna , Katsina, Sokoto, Zamfara, Gombe, Bauchi, Jigawa, Niger and Kebbi. He only performed well in Kaduna because Sambo is from Kaduna.

With the pattern of voting of the north since 2003, It will take a miracle for a southerner to defeat a Hausa/ Fulani man in those ten states in a Presidential election.

If the north is sincere in having power return to the South in 2023, then Atiku and Kwankwaso will not be on ballot. It is the northern religious / political leaders that persuaded Tambuwal to step down for Atiku so as to ensure that the north gets the PDP ticket.

It is this same northern leaders that are promising us that power will return to the South in 2023. We are not fools. We know the game that the north is playing.

In 2015, Sule Lamido, Adamu Muazu and the rest supported Jonathan in the day but on the election day, we saw the result of the meetings they were having with Buhari at night.

On election day, we will see the result of the meetings El- Rufai, Bagudu, Badaru, Ganduje and the rest are having with Atiku at night.

tinsel:
Tinubu and his supporters must work very hard to avoid run off at all cost. Atiku is scheming for a run off because he knows the south east will shift allegiance to him and vote him. This will add to the number of states he will carry because in the run off, Obi will not be in the ballot

Aufbauh:
MikeofAfrica: have you come across this piece posted recently by an ardent APC critique?

jaafar jaafar, the journalist that released Ganduje dollar video had this to say.. his also pro Atiku and Anti APC/Tinubu

We may not like it but if Nigeria goes to poll tomorrow, APC will win. You can’t defeat a ruling party without an alliance. While APC is intact, the major opposition party, PDP is fragmented into shards of small parties (LP & NNPP) and group (5 renegade governors).

After the ACN, ANPP and CPC merger, the last straw that broke Jonathan’s back in 2015 was the defection of Govs Rotimi Amaechi, Rabiu Kwankwaso, Murtala Nyako, Aliyu Wamakko and Abdulfatah Ahmed to the new party, APC. Before their defection, PDP had 23 out of 36 governors.

Now let’s ask ourselves this honest question: how can a party with a broken home, emaciated political fortunes and relatively lean war chest defeat a ruling party with 22 out of 36 governors? I don’t even see a chance of the oft-predicted second ballot in 2023 election.

The worst result APC will get in22 states is close second. It will win in at least 80 percent of the states it controls. You are taking about winning in 17 to 18 states. From my observation, the North sees APC as a ‘northern party’ despite the heightened insecurity under Buhari.

With Makinde’s body language and Afenifere’s endorsement, it’s clear the South West will support Tinubu. Well, in politics events change dramatically. Unless if Peter Obi and Kwankwaso will abandon their bid and Wike’s G5 fall in line, PDP’s chance of defeating APC is a mirage.


https://twitter.com/JaafarSJaafar/status/1604485903744962561?t=ySP_kAUMymM_RxuER1JhbQ&s=19[/quote]Let me ask you a simple question

What has APC done in the last 8 years that makes you passionate about the party?

Even if 99% of Nigerians support APC, I will be the last person to support the party. APC can will 2023 election, l am quite aware of that.

The reason is that there are millions of slaves in Nigeria who are quite comfortable with their chains of poverty. They are more eager to accept peanuts from their oppressors than fighting for their freedom.

However, I thank God for the OBIDIENTS. They are trying to change the nature of our politics. There are over 130 million Nigerians that are extremely poor due to bad Government. I believe that at least 25% of them have voters card. That is about 32 million people.

If these 32 million decide on election day that enough of APC and PDP, Nigeria will begin the journey out of bad leadership. Our politicians will begin to respect the masses.

We don't need a United PDP to remove APC , we need a United voters that are tired of bad government.

People like you need to join the OBIDIENT movement. If Tinubu or Atiku wins in 2023, we will still be glad that we made a statement that Nigeria youths have woken up.

Aufbauh:
Kai.....why is it difficult for you guys to understand a simple sentence? Haba!

I simply wrote that GEJ won in Adamawa, Taraba, Plateau, Benue AND got an average of 35% votes in the core northern states.

It's a two assertive statement with a conjunction of 'AND'. Winning in the four states is entirely different from the 35% he got on the average from other core northern states in my statement. Don't lump them together.

However It's obvious i was talking to an armchair speculator as I can see that you want to tell me more about Adamawa state that is my second home.

Even Google could have helped you to check when last a Christian won a governorship election in Adamawa state. This should have given you a better clue about the religious demography of Adamawa state.

Like I normally ask your likes who feel so confident about their projection or prediction:
When was the last time you supported or predicted a presidential candidate and he won?