Ttalk:


LP will not get 15% on Kaduna. Am sure of that.

Apart from Benue and FCT I don't see anywhere LP will get 15% in the North

Get a Biro and Book and educate your self

Kaduna is divided into 3 North, Central & South

The south most populated part and also major Christians zone

They on their own with out Peter Obi visiting them said they are giving Bulk vote to PO
Datti is from Central Kaduna :- He would be able to get 5-20% here if he does enough grassroot

North and Central would be shared between Atiku, Kwankwaso and Tinubu

If block vote of Southern Kaduna and 20% of Central Kaduna vote for PO
He would see nothing less than 45% -60%

The rest would be shared among the muslim candidates

sapele914:
Peter Obi will not win 1 Local Government across the River Benue.

You ipobians Keep deceiving yourselves, same people that said President Buhari was dead and buried in Saudi, now want to be President of Zoo Nigeria?

Yoruba man you are giving yourself out, only yorubas apply this line of reasoning to rattle up the north

garfield1:
I think not.with kwankwaso in play and obi cornering northern Christian votes and with atiku losing out in ss/se,tinubu just needs to get 30% in the north alongside 60% in the sw.if tinubu gets 30% atiku 35% kwankwaso 25% obi 10%,it will be ok.if tinubu gets 35%,atiku 40% kwankwaso 20%,its still ok provided atiku does not beat tinubu by more than 10%.worst case scenario should be tinubu 30% atiku 40% kwankwaso 20% or tinubu 30% kwankwaso 40%, atiku 25%.but he must get 60% in sw and defeat atiku in the north central and as it stands,atiku has lost the north central yo obi and tinubu.its now left for tinubu to win one of ne/nw or if possible win both or lose narrowly while staying close to atiku in se/ss...


Mynd44
Lalasticlala
Mukina2
Nplfmod
Noethnicity
Kyase
Majole
Immaculatejoe
Penguin2
Ojiofor
Murphyibiam
Pakute
Osunoriginal
Omonnakoda
Indispensable
Okoroawusa
Arewanorth
Ttalk
Ityp
Benuejosh
Oghenaogie

YOU TRY FOR THIS ANALYSIS BUT YOU STILL SPOIL AM WHEN YOU STARTED SAYING MR A HAS LOST ZONE C ETC. LET BVAS/NIGERIANS DECIDE

From only 4 people "tweeting from Facebook" in a room to giving him SE/SS with some flash up north. That is progression for Obi.

While Asiwaju is now going from Landslide Victory nationwide to this your permutation and combination of 60% 20% here and there. That is retrogression.

Don't you think so?

garfield1:


The poll in nc is done only in fct benue and plateau.
Abokis dont like atiku,they prefer kwankwaso. Majority of niger people are gwari and nupe not hausas.tinubu largest crowd was in niger,the support was overwhelming.pdp is weak in niger,they don't have popular people go canvass votes for atiku.apc owns the state...
Tinubu will do well in benue,plateau but obi won't see votes in kwara,niger

Why don't we form a whatsapp group for the 2023 elections? Email me your number or give me your email so i can send me number. It's easier on whatsapp. I hardly know when to reply here: maajimaaji@yahoo.com

Ennoloa:


If Kwakwanso is popular in the north, is that not where Tinubu major vote is to come from

How would he still win?

Kwakwanso being popular in his region how’s that affecting Tinubu’s chances? It made it easier for Tinubu, in my opinion. The election should have has only two front runners, Atiku and Tinubu. Obi and Kwakwanso made it easier for Tinubu cos at the end of the day everybody gets majority in their each zones excluding Atiku… Tinubu is the only one that’s likely to get his 25% in more than 24 states…
Obi cannot get 25% in 24 states… take that to the bank.
Atiku can get that or close to it, but won’t make majority of votes.
Kwakwanso just like Obi cannot get 25% in 24 states.
Only Tinubu has the chance of meeting the criteria of the winner here. It’s very logical.

I hate to see that these set of people made it to the frontline… it shows how unready we are as a nation, but at this point, it is what it is.

majole:


YOU TRY FOR THIS ANALYSIS BUT YOU STILL SPOIL AM WHEN YOU STARTED SAYING MR A HAS LOST ZONE C ETC. LET BVAS/NIGERIANS DECIDE

You are right.I should do like inec when announcing polling unit or ward results.I'll only announce figures and allow the chief returning officer to announce a winner or loser

OnyeAshuaUru:
Tinubu cannot win anywhere that Yoruba Muslims are not the majority. Unfortunately, Yoruba Muslims are an insignificant minority even in Yoruba land, and this makes the regional candidate tag on Tinubu look more like a flattering exaggeration.
Peter Obi is the next President of Nigeria.

Do you think Yoruba Christian will vote obi?…. I’m from south west just name one state obi will win in south west or have 40%

Ttalk:


To me 15% in any part of the North should be applauded

Yes but not a win. Ofcourse, he will get votes I never disputed that, and that’s why I put him 2nd in those Christian states and 3rd or 4th everywhere else in the North and he just won’t win any states in any part of Northern Nigeri.

Ennoloa:


If e get some vote in other people region mind you he is going to win

Your wish is he should not get bro

I have no wish here.. just being objective here, I know it’s not what you wish to hear but the constitution says; majority vote + 25% in 2/3 of the nation states. There’s no way Obi is meeting both criteria.
He could get his 25% in SS, SE and SW states but all combined not upto 24, even if you add Abuja to the list.
He also cannot get majority of the total vote casted across the nation for obvious reason that I don’t need to state.

mrvitalis:

Bros you sure say your calling no be comedy ?

Tinubu made which inroad into south south ? Then you mentioned south east ?

If APC wins umiahs or Hope's polling unite or even get 25% in the polling unit I would deactivate my account

Then you said Tinubu would trash Atiku up north ? Na wah ooh

Tinubu that's not even sure of wining Lagos

Is atiku sure of winning even his Adamawa? Tinubu will win lagos albeit narrowly...

Listen,in 2019,we argued this.hope,rochas,ouk,agege,uche nwosu,izunaso,araraume,all delivered their lgas for buhari.buhari highest votes in those states were from their zones.they will still do same.pdp has been weakened by defections to lp and apc and the g-5 while apc is intact so tinubu has made inroads.according to anap polls,he will defeat atiku in se/ss
I said tinubu will thrash obi in core north not atiku.but,they are areas in the north where tinubu will thrash atiku like borno,yobe,zamfara,kwara,kogi.atiku is overrated,he is depending on pdp structure.on his own he is weak.let him go to another party and let's see how strong he is.can't you see what obi is going with lp,kwankwaso with nnpp? Atiku is an idiot, a coward

Ennoloa:


Tinubu is not sure of wining the most bulk voters which are Lagos, Delta, Kano, Katsina & Kaduna

Then I wonder how can he win if where he is to win..

He is sharing vote even with Peter Obi
Damn

Tinubu will win lagos,beat atiku in kaduna and katsina is 50 50.,

Ennoloa:


Get a Biro and Book and educate your self

Kaduna is divided into 3 North, Central & South

The south most populated part and also major Christians zone

They on their own with out Peter Obi visiting them said they are giving Bulk vote to PO
Datti is from Central Kaduna :- He would be able to get 5-20% here if he does enough grassroot

North and Central would be shared between Atiku, Kwankwaso and Tinubu

If block vote of Southern Kaduna and 20% of Central Kaduna vote for PO
He would see nothing less than 45% -60%

The rest would be shared among the muslim candidates

Not true.Kaduna south is the least populated.atiku and obi will share it.tinubu will ein kaduna central while kaduna north will go to tinubu and kwankwaso.so tinubu win followed by obi then kwankwaso

OnyeAshuaUru:
Tinubu cannot win anywhere that Yoruba Muslims are not the majority. Unfortunately, Yoruba Muslims are an insignificant minority even in Yoruba land, and this makes the regional candidate tag on Tinubu look more like a flattering exaggeration.
Peter Obi is the next President of Nigeria.

Unfortunately, Yoruba no dey carry religion for head. Ethnicity matters more to them in politics than religion.

sunboy:


I have no wish here.. just being objective here, I know it’s not what you wish to hear but the constitution says; majority vote + 25% in 2/3 of the nation states. There’s no way Obi is meeting both criteria.
He could get his 25% in SS, SE and SW states but all combined not upto 24, even if you add Abuja to the list.
He also cannot get majority of the total vote casted across the nation for obvious reason that I don’t need to state.

Buhari did not even get 25% total in SE

So with your other guys that call SE nyamri, ipob you still expect 25% in SE total vote

Lol

only cross river would give Tinubu a certain % from 5-15 as my other SS vote in line with SE most time and Bayelsa are not happy with How Tinubu and Buhari remove Goodluck
Okowa is not even sure of wining Delta then Akwa Ibom is PDP state but PO and Atiku would share it

And what they have in stock is same as they displayed in the APC primary

plusfield:
Tinubu's hope is on the northern APC govs and elite. But unfortunately, he doesn't know what they have in stock for him

MyMouth:

Unfortunately, Yoruba no dey carry religion for head. Ethnicity matters more to them in politics than religion.

Gbam.tinubu should win kogi

sapele914:
E be like say common Almijiri get sense pass you? I said logical thinking, not the types like you.

Only a foolish Almijiri will vote for Atiku that will hand over to a supposed Ndigbo in 2027, than for Muslim that will handover to them whenever either 2027 or 2031.

And who told you that the Almajirci have problems with an Igbo president?

If you are banking on that to push your drug Lord forward, better wake up.

Ennoloa:


Buhari did not even get 25% total in SE

So with your other guys that call SE nyamri, ipob you still expect 25% in SE total vote

Lol

only cross river would give Tinubu a certain % from 5-15 as my other SS vote in line with SE most time and Bayelsa are not happy with How Tinubu and Buhari remove Goodluck
Okowa is not even sure of wining Delta then Akwa Ibom is PDP state but PO and Atiku would share it

Buhari got 25% in abia,ebonyi and imo.with two governors,apc will have 25% in at least two se states now that obi is killing pdp and pdp is divided there...
Cross river is my state,tinubu will get 25% there.he will also get 25% in edo, delta.Buhari got 40% in bayelsa,tinubu will get same

garfield1:


Gbam.tinubu should win kogi

Most definitely! No doubt.

MyMouth:

Most definitely! No doubt.

I know he will do well in kogi central and west.dont know for east

garfield1:


Is atiku sure of winning even his Adamawa? Tinubu will win lagos albeit narrowly...

Listen,in 2019,we argued this.hope,rochas,ouk,agege,uche nwosu,izunaso,araraume,all delivered their lgas for buhari.buhari highest votes in those states were from their zones.they will still do same.pdp has been weakened by defections to lp and apc and the g-5 while apc is intact so tinubu has made inroads.according to anap polls,he will defeat atiku in se/ss
I said tinubu will thrash obi in core north not atiku.but,they are areas in the north where tinubu will thrash atiku like borno,yobe,zamfara,kwara,kogi.atiku is overrated,he is depending on pdp structure.on his own he is weak.let him go to another party and let's see how strong he is.can't you see what obi is going with lp,kwankwaso with nnpp? Atiku is an idiot, a coward

Haha
Atiku is always running helter skelter. Where is the pdm he formed today?
People forget he once ran to this same tinubu for shelter in 2007. Highly overated, whose loyalists have scattered to everywhere. I will always say, if youths want to study contemporary politics in nigeria and how rewards for loyalty are earned and shared, look no further than Tinubu.

garfield1:


Buhari got 25% in abia,ebonyi and imo.with two governors,apc will have 25% in at least two se states now that obi is killing pdp and pdp is divided there...
Cross river is my state,tinubu will get 25% there.he will also get 25% in edo, delta.Buhari got 40% in bayelsa,tinubu will get same

So you still think SE would vote by Party this year when they have their Son

I love this

Tinubu is not marketable in SE at all except they rig some local government which by this time no single thumb printing from one person

Do you think PO can win 25% in any SW state apart from Lagos

garfield1:


I know he will do well in kogi central and west.dont know for east

Am from the east, he will get the required numbers there even though pdp has the 2 former governors from the area.

MyMouth:

Unfortunately, Yoruba no dey carry religion for head. Ethnicity matters more to them in politics than religion.

If Oyedepo a Yoruba Pastor tell his members to vote PO

Who do you think they would listen to Ethnicity or Religion?

a4cube:
From only 4 people "tweeting from Facebook" in a room to giving him SE/SS with some flash up north. That is progression for Obi.

While Asiwaju is now going from Landslide Victory nationwide to this your permutation and combination of 60% 20% here and there. That is retrogression.

Don't you think so?

Ennoloa:


If Oyedepo a Yoruba Pastor tell his members to vote PO

Who do you think they would listen to Ethnicity or Religion?

E go shock you! They would still vote a Yoruba person expecially now that they believe it's the turn of the Yorubas

MyMouth:

Am from the east, he will get the required numbers there even though pdp has the 2 former governors from the area.

I think sen echocho and onoja will try for him.am not sure ex govs wada and idris are syi very relevant.also obi will get some votes

Ennoloa:


So you still think SE would vote by Party this year when they have their Son

I love this

Tinubu is not marketable in SE at all except they rig some local government which by this time no single thumb printing from one person

Do you think PO can win 25% in any SW state apart from Lagos

70% of se will vote their son obi but the remaining 30% will be open to rigging and apc will out muscle pdp and get more votes.there are few lgas where apc will dominate.pdp will be third.
Obi will get 35% in lagos but I dont see him getting 25% outside except he puts effort in oyo

Svoboda:


Haha
Atiku is always running helter skelter. Where is the pdm he formed today?
People forget he once ran to this same tinubu for shelter in 2007. Highly overated, whose loyalists have scattered to everywhere. I will always say, if youths want to study contemporary politics in nigeria and how rewards for loyalty are earned and shared, look no further than Tinubu.

Gbam.no one has more loyalists than tinubu not even buhari.Tinubu learnt well from late abiola.atiku should have learnt we from late shehu but was impatient. He inherited his structure pdm but doesnt know how to maintain a political structure.

Atiku is making gains in katsina and bauchi.

garfield1:


Not true.Kaduna south is the least populated.atiku and obi will share it.tinubu will ein kaduna central while kaduna north will go to tinubu and kwankwaso.so tinubu win followed by obi then kwankwaso

This why I say you guys are deluded

You base on assumptions instead of researching

only SK has 51% of the total Kaduna Population: A block vote from here up to 52% of 1.6M in-respect to the total vote of Kaduna 2019 election is 800k+ it would cover to an extent for Katsina and Kano margins than Atiku, Tinubu and Kwankwanso is going to share

garfield1:


70% of se will vote their son obi but the remaining 30% will be open to rigging and apc will out muscle pdp and get more votes.there are few lgas where apc will dominate.pdp will be third.
Obi will get 35% in lagos but I dont see him getting 25% outside except he puts effort in oyo

Nobody is going to rig any election in SE as there would be high turnout even INEC had to cancel the election in some part of Osun where there were thugs interference

Any area with APC thug interference in SE might be responded with violence from the Youth themselves that are not happy with the marginalization they feel they are facing and INEC would cancel and redo those areas

So don't think you can rig there even APC, PDP and other parties house of reps use PO with their billboards

Be sleeping on imaginary 25%

I know one local govt in Abia that the PDP and APC house of rep are using PO as their President

You begin to wonder where APC want to see 25%

SE elites like Soludo and Arthur eze are most likely to work for Atiku than Tinubu as its easier to market Okowayo instead of Shetimma because they know shetima as boko haram in east