₦airaland Forum

GboyegaD:
I guess this election is going to be interesting. I guess those leading Atiku are not been truthful to him. He should have found a way to reach a truce with them than acting like he doesn't care when we all know he's so concerned about their actions.

LegalWolf:
I have previously asked this question before and I think the G5 will adversely affect PDP chances a lot. Let us break it down in a state-by-state analysis.

Rivers

This is one of the most powerful strongholds of PDP. Given what we see on ground, Wike commands a large followership because it appears he has done well. Now add the fact that he has access to resources (13% derivative + normal revenue - IGR + repaid moneys owed by FG = massive war chest). There is NO WAY on earth any of the people working for Atiku in Rivers State can match that.

Verdict: Atiku chances are gone in Rivers

Oyo

Oyo story is similar to Rivers but slightly different. Makinde has done well and also commands large followership. However, he does not have the war chest of a Wike and there are still gladiators in Oyo politics that can pull funds together to salvage Atiku.

Verdict: Atiku votes will be slightly affected (Not that he can win Oyo state on a norms. To my knowledge, he has never won the state)

Benue

This is where it gets interesting. Unlike the previous two, Ortom is a disaster. Coupled with the fact that Benue is a BROKE state. Now add the fact that powerful men in the State are in support of Atiku. I would not be surprise if Atiku wins the state.

However, I am not unaware of the sentiments on ground. The media has so much tarnished the Fulani image and it is possible sentiments are whipped to campaign against Atiku. Benue promises to be interesting to watch.

Verdict: Indifferent

Abia and Enugu

I will do a joint analysis due to the similarities of both States. The chances of Atiku in these states are slim not necessarily because of G5, but Peter Obi. However, as the question relates to G5, I think the governors not working for Atiku will dim the very slight chances he has in those states. He cannot and would not win those states unfortunately....

2023 will be interesting as it will demystify so many people and unravel many things. Let us see how it will go

Vinnie2000:
As things stand, Atiku Abubakar and PDP have already FAILED in the Presidential election.

The Only thing dat can Salvage their Hopeless situation is TO WHIP HEAVY RELIGIOUS AND ETHNIC SENTIMENTS in Northern Nigeria.
Atiku has to use BBC Hausa and Imams Propaganda to claim he is being Victimized and oppressed by Southerners and all Hausas and Fulanis should vote him!

This is the hope Atiku Has.

But in this 2023 election,
*South-south/ South-east- 90% Peter Obi
*South West- 70%Tinubu
*Middle Belt- 100% Peter Obi
*North-Atiku 50%, Tinubu 30% and Peter Obi 20%.

So PETER OBI wins it!

asobo1:
Your opinion though but who are they G-5 withholding funds for campaign? Aside Wike, whatever the remaining four governor's which to contribute, Gov Diri, Gov Udom and Gov Okowa will triple the amount. Are you kidding yourself

Fiscus105:
You think Yoruba PDP in Oyo will for fulani for another 8 years?

Even if Makinde support Atiku, he will still not be able to win 25%.

DanAugust2021:
When Atiku himself is not spending money, is it the governors you mentioned that will spend money when they are not even sure of Atiku in their respective states?

Jones4190:
name me one state in middle belt state that you think obi will win?
Nassawa, APC has National chairman, three formal governors, a sitting governor, three senator, 5 HOR and twenty state assembly are all behind tinubu, How can obi get 100%

platue state, APC has the sitting governor who double himself as the DG to tinubu, 1 formal governor, two senators, many HOR, 17 out of 25 state assembly, how can obi get 100%

in Benue my own state, The code is very simple, "YES FATHER'' go and verify even ortom is not sure of going to senate, he is fighting with Jembagh son (AYU).
jembagh has 3 out of 7 locals government ortom want to represent, we are waiting for him in February.
I don't want to mention Niger, kogi and Kwara state, obi will not get up to 15% vote.

obi is not wise at all, if you notice it both APC and PDP are avoiding the G5 state but your guy rush to go and campaign in river state what will happen if wike adopt him as their prefer candidate, will he go back there for another campaign?

Sammy07:
Only governorship election

Aiel123:
To some extent I agree with you.
The presidency isn't looking rosy for PDP now. I myself is a PDP diehard.No need to decieve yourself.
A good showing in the governorship elections can help revive the highly fractured PDP.
Matching APC in the governorship election means they stand a chance in 2027.2023: own is tied to how far AA can go in the north plus concentrating on splashing and breaking the bank in SS to counter PO effects.

ogascomax:
The question I ask some myopic and sentimental clown that will say G5 none support will influence the election in their States. I asked them since we are in Delta is it Okowa that is influencing your vote? The answer is always no but they will want to foolishly insist that G5 governors will affect greatly PDP chances. Some people are just too stupid and dull. Labour party has no governor and they are tipping LP for victory and the one with governors they think they would lose. No be madness be that.

asobo1:
Your opinion though but who are they G-5 withholding funds for campaign? Aside Wike, whatever the remaining four governor's which to contribute, Gov Diri, Gov Udom and Gov Okowa will triple the amount. Are you kidding yourself

Sammy07:
Accurate.

AA can't contest again in 2027, their coming back, if they like make them no bring reasonable candidate or put their party together

Vinnie2000:
As things stand, Atiku Abubakar and PDP have already FAILED in the Presidential election.

The Only thing dat can Salvage their Hopeless situation is TO WHIP HEAVY RELIGIOUS AND ETHNIC SENTIMENTS in Northern Nigeria.
Atiku has to use BBC Hausa and Imams Propaganda to claim he is being Victimized and oppressed by Southerners and all Hausas and Fulanis should vote him!

This is the hope Atiku Has.

But in this 2023 election,
*South-south/ South-east- 90% Peter Obi
*South West- 70%Tinubu
*Middle Belt- 100% Peter Obi
*North-Atiku 50%, Tinubu 30% and Peter Obi 20%.

So PETER OBI wins it!

Vinnie2000:
As things stand, Atiku Abubakar and PDP have already FAILED in the Presidential election.

The Only thing dat can Salvage their Hopeless situation is TO WHIP HEAVY RELIGIOUS AND ETHNIC SENTIMENTS in Northern Nigeria.
Atiku has to use BBC Hausa and Imams Propaganda to claim he is being Victimized and oppressed by Southerners and all Hausas and Fulanis should vote him!

This is the hope Atiku Has.

But in this 2023 election,
*South-south/ South-east- 90% Peter Obi
*South West- 70%Tinubu
*Middle Belt- 100% Peter Obi
*North-Atiku 50%, Tinubu 30% and Peter Obi 20%.

So PETER OBI wins it!

DanAugust2021:
When Atiku himself is not spending money, is it the governors you mentioned that will spend money when they are not even sure of Atiku in their respective states?

Sammy07:
Omo, seems you are correct in your last paragraph.

Vinnie2000:
Ogbeni, Stop Deceiving urself dis Morning!

APC is NOT winning single state or even LG in South South.

*Edo
*Delta
*Bayelsa
*Akwa Ibom.
*Rivers
*Cross Rivers
Are all for PETER OBI OF LP. Why will any sensible southerner vote APC

*Anambra
*Imo
*Enugu
*Abia
*Ebonyi.
Are also for PETER OBI OF LP. Don't allow Uzodimma and Umahi to decieve you.

Taraba
Benue
Plateau
Nassarawa
Are also for PETER OBI OF LP.

Lagos State (45%) is for PETER OBI.

Then for the Core North, Votes will be Shared between Tinubu, Atiku, Peter Obi and Kwankwanso.

So, Just Rest. Peter Obi is your Next President, OK?

kenbee:
Definitely, the activities of the G5 governors is going to affect PDP negatively and it is already awakening the political consciousness in the citizens which may likely sway votes to Peter Obi's LP

By-the-way, I'm Obidient!

Ruggedniggaone:
It won't have much effect on Atiku because irrespective of who they work for pdp will still come second at worse from their states because it's only seyi makinde that is fighting Atiku oyo pdp never said they won't work for Atiku and even if wike work for tinubu he may still not come second in river state unless wike will be forcing people at gun point to vote for his muslim muslim tickets.ortorm will not have much impact in who will win Benue because Atiku still has large % of the strong politician in Benue that are still supporting him like David Mark, Gabriel suswan,Ayu and others. the other two state will not be different,they are only following wike because they don't want to betray him but they won't work against Atiku because they are also contesting for senate.all Atiku has to do is to get bulk votes from both north west and north east and try to come second in other zones

Emeskhalifa:
It's quite ironic how "the unifier" cannot even unite his party yet thinks he can unite Nigeria

DanAugust2021:
Good analysis.

CheapHomes1:
Did Atiku not look for a way to reach a truce with them?

Aiel123:
You see people underrating my governor are not wise politically for the financial warchest from Akwa Ibom and Delta will neutralize what Wike can pull.
This poll will be heavily monetized
For PDP in the SS, this is make or mar election.

CheapHomes1:
Did Atiku not look for a way to reach a truce with them?

GboyegaD:
He needs them more so he needs do more.

asobo1:
What state are you from?

CheapHomes1:
You didn't answer the question. Did Atiku not look for a way to reach a truce with them?

GboyegaD:
I don't know what answer you are expecting other than he needs do more.