raumdeuter:


You think the agents are fools and will just dish out money without seeing evidence? You will show evidence before collecting money

. I collected money from one apc dude in 2019 though I chose sowore maybe I was lucky though.

Itsrm:



This is funny . With party agents everywhere watching you like a hawk

Make Segedinho come give you update on how e dey go

B4 now,you have to vote first and display it b4 payment

raumdeuter:


While Labor has no party agent nor candidates in many polling unit. Structure does not matter sha

Dey play, in Ifako-Ijaiye, the WhatsApp group I belong to has over 200 persons, the bulk of whom will be acting as polling unit agents come election day. I've personally registered to act as an agent for LP in my ward. There's more than one of such Whatsapp groups for Ifako-Ijaiye and several scattered across Lagos and other states of the federation.

Theflint1:
Fair point, but 84% of IDP camps are located in Borno where Shettima is from so it's unlikely to influence the elections as much as you're expecting.

Borno and Yobe. plus Zamfara too cos of Bandits

Now we have some IDP camps in Benue and Kogi I think. This is where the influence of Yahaya Bello and Ortom will be key depending on who they support

Theflint1:
Dey play, in my LGA in Ifako-Ijaiye, the WhatsApp group I belong to has over 200 persons, the bulk of whom will be acting as polling unit agents come election day. I've personally registered to act as an agent for LP in my ward. There's more than one of such Whatsapp groups for Ifako-Ijaiye and several scattered across Lagos and other states of the federation.

You are talking about Lagos. Have you been to Lapai LGA in Niger or Nguru LGA in Borno

Or dem talk say Ifako Ijaye votes count more than Argungu in Kebbi?

Segedinho:


So what was the basis of projection in these aforementioned regions?.

Your assertion on the bolded is possible but no surprises if it goes beyond the projected %. due to what I have seen/heard/witnessed

Because both PDP and APC has 1 senatorial district each as a stronghold and the other 1 as a battleground. If you know much about Edo politics as you claim you wont be asking me this.

PDP and APC will get at least 25% of votes in Edo, they might even get more than that sef.

But if APC win, e go bloody o. See how them dey confidently project votes off the ordeals of the unfortunate like internally displaced persons.

That means, APC will ensure we all end up in different IDP camps so they can pay us 2k each and farm votes during the next election cycle.

Avoid this evil party at all costs.

OasisX:




..... but Obidients say it is gonna be an open contest.

Some consider Kwara as part of south west and I think they've been producing mostly apc governors from some time now. I think tinubu might be favorite also in kogi and nasarrawa but Benue and plateau look pro obi.

WhoDeyHause:
. I collected money from one apc dude in 2019 though I chose sowore maybe I was lucky though.

Na dull agent be that or agent wey never sabi work,

As the hunter learns to shoot without missing the birds too learn to fly without perching

Agent wey dem give 100K and he is not able to deliver his PO, will give account


Follow your local politics not just online and on the agents whatsapp chat you will see This is Agent John Abu from PO 6 in Katsina Ala, I delivered my PO APC 132 PDP 24.. Anyone who did not deliver must have a reason of why the money finished and you couldnt deliver. Or else you might be in political exile

That is where the party structures start collating results from and comparing to INEC which forms the basis for election tribunals

Some of you guys have never seen the real workings of an election beyond online things

Donjazet2:


I keep shouting it here that this election would be entirely different from what we've ever seen

The way you guys are hyping this bvas are u sure it would be able to work perfectly. Cos this how we thought Card reader would end rigging.

raumdeuter:


Despite these confident beliefs no one is ready to stake money

Thats to tell you the difference between what you say and you what know inside you

For instance, I will never bet against Atiku winning but for sure I can stake any amount, Tinubu gets more votes Nationwide than Obi

They know it within their heart but they are denying it. It's the illusion of hope.

Abeg check your mail.

raumdeuter:


While Labor has no party agent nor candidates in many polling unit. Structure does not matter sha

Sadly, this is why some of us just don't see it happening for Obi in 2023.

We can only advice Obidients to reduce their expectations. Maybe they don't even believe all these 2.5m votes seeing as no one wants to put his money on the line

raumdeuter:


You are talking about Lagos. Have you been to Lapai LGA in Niger or Nguru LGA in Borno

Or dem talk say Ifako Ijaye votes count more than Argungu in Kebbi?

Places where we're confident of getting significant number of votes, there'd be agents on standby to secure those votes, na the koko be that.

WhoDeyHause:

Some consider Kwara as part of south west and I think they've been producing mostly apc governors from some time now. I think tinubu might be favorite also in kogi and nasarrawa but Benue and plateau look pro obi.

Kwara turned APC in 2015, Those Benue Plateau you need to be careful so that Atiku and Obi dont cancel themselvs too much

If its normally 40-45% APC and 55-60% PDP. Those PDP is now split into 2. If its an equal split then APC wins 40-30-30

Donjazet2:


Let's put this theory to test. Last election, the "structure" on ground resulted in just 10 percent of the population voting.
This means a whopping 90 percent of the population were not part of that "structure".

Now let's assume that the massive sensitization about this election through the power of the internet and social media has activated a whole new 15 percent.

That's millions of new first time voters who are not part of any party or local structure but have made up their minds to go out there and thumbprint a ballot sheet for a candidate, does that aforementioned structure still hold firm in spite of the newly activated voters that overwhelm the previous structure?

The electorate are never the structure. I remember that you were a bit active in USA 2020 elections. The structure is what determines how a certain number of people vote. Using the US example, Sanders was a leading contender of the Dems during the primary. His structure , however, was small and created problems for him( he is a progressive and had people like AOC whose views are regarded as Socialism in America. These group are a small minority of the Dems).Now, 40 percent in America always votes Dems, the other 40 votes GOP. Now the fight is for the 20 percent independents so you need a figure that can get you those votes over Trump. Trump with all his wahala still managed a score high enough to win him election any other year.


It is basically in same in every country including Nigeria. There are people that will vote only Muslim or Christian or a particular tribe. Even if record number comes out to vote. Those particular percentage will vote for a particular party or religious group or tribe.


Structure helps in building bridges in order to get those independents to give you a necessary tilt and to avoid being sabotaged by your own party members. Bernie Sanders would have been sabotaged by some Dems who felt him extreme.This sabotage includes sending people of questionable character to serve as agents in their area of influence(sometimes, they may not send at all). Not communicating or lax campaign of party candidate


I hope you understand. Or should I recommend a book?

Itsrm:


Sadly, this is why some of us just don't see it happening for Obi in 2023.

We can only Obidients to reduce their expectations. Maybe they don't even believe all these 2.5m votes seeing as no one wants to put his money on the line

if I say Tinubu will get more votes than Obi in Abia state . You will see people jump out willing to take me up on the bet

But If I say Tinubu will get more votes than Obi all over Nigeria . The same people will move back and start telling you they don't believe in betting, It will be rigged, They dont have money to bet etc

We dey play

Theflint1:
Places where we're confident of getting significant number of votes, there'd be agents on standby to secure those votes, na the koko be that.

Even, the mobilization of these agents to avoid a sheep in wolf clothing.

In a EDO state i think, A party agent fought against his own party

But why are the drug lord supporters shying away from polling data which is actually the only metric and data one can actually use for permutations rather than biased guess work or anecdotal evidences.

Polling data is the only thing one can use to guage support or mood in an area so why are the drug lord supporters shying away from it?

Theflint1:
Places where we're confident of getting significant number of votes, there'd be agents on standby to secure those votes, na the koko be that.

And how many states or LGA are that all over Nigeria?

You think if they are flogging you by 2m votes to 120 votes in Borno, Do you know how many states Edo, Lagos, Delta, Bayelsa, etc where you will be competing with PDP and APC you need to equalize?

Its like Man City don beat you 7-0 in Etihad and you are managing 4-2 vs city at home

Donjazet2:
But why are the drug lord supporters shying away from polling data which is actually the only metric and data one can actually use for permutations rather than biased guess work or anecdotal evidences.

Polling data is the only thing one can use to guage support or mood in an area so why are the drug lord supporters shying away from it?

Personally, I don't think close to 100 polls, street polls, road and rural polls are all wrong.


Can you take up Dayo's bet now?

larride:


Because both PDP and APC has 1 senatorial district each as a stronghold and the other 1 as a battleground. If you know much about Edo politics as you claim you wont be asking me this.

PDP and APC will get at least 25% of votes in Edo, they might even get more than that sef.

Oga... I understand perfectly how election has been in Benin.I know what/how the structure will have impact cos I have been in it.


I am here telling you that those seats you put up there will have a very minimal impact on what is going on here.

When I say rigging..do u think people will just come outside to rig??they are sponsored by those seats u mentioned earlier.

Nobody send all the house of bu la ba(nonsense) u mentioned earlier cos they don't have any impact on the masses except d selected few regarded as the thugs.....and it is a one off.

.I have been there..I know what I am saying........The way people hates APC in Benin due to high cost of living ..you will need a professor to explain economy 101 to them

What is wrong with Kenneth Okonkwo? That video is just some how. He even failed to mention that you can only vote where you registered unless you transferred. Then mentioned that 30 million votes are Igbos and they should vote Obi.

Obi's media team needs to do better

I'm willing to stake my money that Obi wins more votes than Tinubu nationally.

There is no magic that happens that will see Tinubu win more votes than Obi.
Tinubu's candidacy is generally despised. There is no way such an unpopular party gets to win re-election. The nigerian electorate are not stupid.

The only advantage PDP had in 2015 was power of incumbency and yet they lost because public sentiment was against them.

The exact same thing will play out in a couple days time. Tinubuis only taken serious sef because his party is the ruling party, were he an opposition candidate, he will know he has already lost just like Atiku right now

raumdeuter:


if I say Tinubu will get more votes than Obi in Abia state . You will see people jump out willing to take me up on the bet

But If I say Tinubu will get more votes than Obi all over Nigeria . The same people will move back and start telling you they don't believe in betting, It will be rigged, They dont have money to bet etc

We dey play

When you say governors can influence votes Obidients will say there's BVAS

When you ask them to bet, they will tell you the election can be rigged so they can't put money

raumdeuter:


Kwara turned APC in 2015, Those Benue Plateau you need to be careful so that Atiku and Obi dont cancel themselvs too much

If its normally 40-45% APC and 55-60% PDP. Those PDP is now split into 2. If its an equal split then APC wins 40-30-30

The way you discuss Nigerian Politics is amazing!! Someone will think You are in Nigeria ..... How do you gather information??

Itsrm:


When you say governors can influence votes Obidients will say there's BVAS

When you ask them to bet, they will tell you the election can be rigged so they can't put money

If they tell you to bet on South East votes now another talk go enter.

Segedinho:

Oga... I understand perfectly how election has been in Benin.I know what/how the structure will have impact cos I have been in it.


I am here telling you that those seats you put up have will have a very minimal impact on what is going on here.

When I say rigging..do u think people will just come outside to rig??they are sponsored by those seats u mentioned earlier.

Nobody send all the house of bu la ba(nonsense) u mentioned earlier cos they don't have any impact on the masses except d selected few regarded as the thugs.....and it is a one off.

.I have been there..I know what I am saying........The way people hates APC in Benin due to high cost of living ..you will need a professor to explain economy 101 to them

That is Benin. And I think people hate PDP too. Obaseki has not covered himself with that plate license issue to the Park wahala.Just some days back, on rhythmic(not exactly sure) Callers kept criticising Obaseki. LP has a big chance of winning Edo due to Benin but PDP chance is very low and APC chance looks slightly better because of Osho(whom people feel has been vindicated) and Kabaka boys.Also remember that Shaibu and his structure still has issue with PDP board.(Issue of the positions will occupy in the state PDP chapter)


Auchi and all those Muslim dominant area is where APC have their best chance and I say it with my chest

I swear, it's impressive.

Ihebu4chelsea:
The way you discuss Nigerian Politics is amazing!! Someone will think You are in Nigeria ..... How do you gather information??

raumdeuter:


Na dull agent be that or agent wey never sabi work,

As the hunter learns to shoot without missing the birds too learn to fly without perching

Agent wey dem give 100K and he is not able to deliver his PO, will give account


Follow your local politics not just online and on the agents whatsapp chat you will see This is Agent John Abu from PO 6 in Katsina Ala, I delivered my PO APC 132 PDP 24.. Anyone who did not deliver must have a reason of why the money finished and you couldnt deliver. Or else you might be in political exile

That is where the party structures start collating results from and comparing to INEC which forms the basis for election tribunals

Some of you guys have never seen the real workings of an election beyond online things

Well I know of all those women leader's mobilization though. I was in Lagos 2018 to visit my friend for xmas at dodan barracks as I was based there that time and almost all if not all the soldiers wives were given foodstuffs and some cash as I later heard. If you see the garri they packed for them inside nylon. Very big with that failure's image boldly stamped on it. Then imagine what went on in other barracks around the country. As much as some of us want the status quo to change the elites still have their own tested bag of tricks up their sleeves that's why I don't send all these online polls. A big reason why I even fear an atiku victory more than the rest.

Please y'all should check page 1245, 2 people have decided to wager some money.

Any reff available.?

Itsrm:


When you say governors can influence votes Obidients will say there's BVAS

When you ask them to bet, they will tell you the election can be rigged so they can't put money

On a very fair election.. Gov doesn't really have impact but this is Nigeria where anything can be manipulated...

Placing bet on an uncertain occurrence isn't wise IMO

Nostradamus1:
That is Benin. And I think people hate PDP too. Obaseki has not covered himself with that plate license issue to the Park wahala.Just some days back, on rhythmic(not exactly sure) Callers kept criticising Obaseki. LP has a big chance of winning Edo due to Benin but PDP chance is very low and APC chance looks slightly better because of Osho(whom people feel has been vindicated) and Kabaka boys.Also remember that Shaibu and his structure still has issue with PDP board.(Issue of the positions will occupy in the state PDP chapter)


Auchi and all those Muslim dominant area is where APC have their best chance and I say it with my chest

If you tell them that the population of this Auchi/Edo North isn't even up to 25% of the state's population they'd say we don't understand structure.