Millz404:
Another new face-to-face nationwide poll on the 2023 general elections has put the Labour Party Presidential candidate, Peter Obi, ahead with 37% of the survey respondents.

Obi is followed by the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) candidate, Atiku Abubakar, who secured 27% of the survey responses, while the All Progressive Congress (APC) candidate, Bola Tinubu, secured 24% with New Nigerian Peoples Party (NNPP) candidate securing at 6% of survey respondents.

This disclosure is contained in a press statement by Nextier, an African-focused consulting firm, where it presented the second presidential poll conducted it conducted, on Friday, January 27, 2023, 4 weeks before the scheduled presidential elections.

The Nextier team used a sample size of 3,000 respondents and generated a margin of error of 2% at a 95% confidence interval.

The survey sample represented the age and gender demographics in Nigeria’s 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory. Although Labour Party secured the highest voter preference, it is unlikely to secure an outright first-round victory. None of the presidential candidates met both criteria for victory in the first round: a majority of votes cast and 25% in two-thirds of the states.

Runoff election likely despite Labour party lead.
The survey results show that Labour Party can achieve 25% of the votes in 23 states, meaning that the presidential election could head to a runoff between Peter Obi and Atiku Abubakar or Bola Tinubu.

Most registered voters (72%) have decided on their preferred party. This result is consistent across rural and urban voters. Similarly, the survey data demonstrates that respondents are certain in their choices.

The survey showed that 83% of the respondents indicated that nothing would make them change their preferred party before the election. It is important to note that the survey questionnaire showed the party logos and names instead of the candidates’ names or images.

Significantly higher voter turnout expected in 2023 presidential election
Nextier in its report from the survey noted that voter turnout in the 2023 presidential election could be significantly higher than in 2019. For instance, 77% of respondents indicated that they ‘will vote in this election, while 63% stated that they “will definitely vote.”

This level of commitment was consistent across all age and gender demographics in rural and urban communities. Despite the voter commitment, turnout could be depressed by a combination of factors, which include insecurity, concerns about the freedom and fairness of the election, and concerns about the impartiality of Nigeria’s Independent National Electoral Commission(INEC).

Only 52% of the respondents trust that the elections will be free and fair. Only 47% of respondents trust that INEC will not manipulate the results.

2023 election to be the most keenly contested in decades

The founding partner of Nextier, Patrick O. Okigbo stated that the 2023 presidential election is shaping to be one of the most keenly contested races in recent decades.

He said, ‘’It is exciting to see Nigerians take their civic responsibilities seriously.’’

He confirmed that, in addition to the two national polls, Nextier would continue to provide data analysis and insights on Nigeria’s selections and other development issues.

In summary, although the Labour Party secured the highest voter preference, Nigeria’s 2023 presidential elections will likely go into a second-round runoff with Peter Obi and one of either Atiku Abubakar or Bola Tinubu.

For the record
This is the second poll that Nextier is conducted in recent times for the 2023 presidential elections.
Recall that in November 2022, Nextier had in an opinion poll it conducted, tipped Peter Obi to be the winner of the 2023 election if it was held then.
Conducted in rural communities, the survey interviewed 2,000 Nigerian registered voters in 12 states across the six geopolitical zones. The Nextier survey team said they excluded the home states of the leading presidential and vice-presidential candidates.
The poll suggests a 3-horse presidential race between Mr. Obi, Bola Tinubu of the APC, and Atiku Abubakar of the PDP. Though with a strong support base in Nigeria’s north-west, particularly his Kano home state, Rabiu Kwankwaso of the NNPP is not considered a top contender, according to the survey.
The poll results show that Mr. Obi leads in rural communities at 40.37%. Mr. Abubakar is at a distant second with 26.7%, closely followed by Tinubu at 20.47%.

https://nairametrics.com/2023/02/05/a-new-nationwide-poll-puts-peter-obi-ahead-of-atiku-tinubu-and-runoff-likely-in-2023-presidential-election/

VCE45:
What I could see hear is that APC and PDP will share the Northern Votes.
While
Labour Party will monopolize the Southern Votes.

According to the Polls
PDP wins 8 states,
APC wins 10 states,
LP wins 17 states plus F.C.T.

Opinion: I think LP will win Plateau State.



Here is another Online Poll Ongoing at the moment

https://nigeriansdecide.com/who-should-be-the-president-of-nigeria-in-2023/

VCE45:
What I could see hear is that APC and PDP will share the Northern Votes.
While
Labour Party will monopolize the Southern Votes.

According to the Polls
PDP wins 8 states,
APC wins 10 states,
LP wins 17 states plus F.C.T.

Opinion: I think LP will win Plateau State.



Here is another Online Poll Ongoing at the moment

https://nigeriansdecide.com/who-should-be-the-president-of-nigeria-in-2023/

BluntTheApostle:
Rubbish poll.


Imagine it projects Labour Party to win Oyo, Ogun, Ekiti, Osun, Lagos.

VCE45:
What I could see hear is that APC and PDP will share the Northern Votes.
While
Labour Party will monopolize the Southern Votes.

According to the Polls
PDP wins 8 states,
APC wins 10 states,
LP wins 17 states plus F.C.T.

Opinion: I think LP will win Plateau State.



Here is another Online Poll Ongoing at the moment

https://nigeriansdecide.com/who-should-be-the-president-of-nigeria-in-2023/

excellence44:
Why do urchins feel like they're the only ones with voters card? The urchin above with the caption 'no poling units on social media' actually think that the humans on social media exist here alone. Oga, I have my voters card and I am on social media too.

itsRhamzy:
lol dey Dere dey deceive yourself. Polls having just one section of the country participating right? LoL. I have nothing against Obi and wish him the best but it's only 3 weeks away for you to realize this permutations here is nothing but shyte.
I'm not voting BAT in fact I hate anything APC. But I'd not waste my votes this time on Obi as any vote for Obi is indirectly for BAT. I might vote Obi sometime in the future, but not now. The handwriting is on the wall. He cannot win ffs can't you guys see that?

Have you taken a look at the statistics of PVC collection and where the bulk of voters are nationwide? Adamawa votes alone can swallow 3 states in Obi's stronghold let alone other states on the north and Obi will see very little there. How can you not see these facts and make educated predictions instead of all these fantasies I'm seeing on NL? Some are even saying Obi's victory is sure lol.

No need for long talk. FEB 25 is like 3 weeks away.

blank:


It's not a projection. It's the response from people on who they will be voting for. To make a projection, you'll have to extrapolate on anticipated turn out, voting population, etc. This was a survey and that's why the surveyed numbers are low.

If you are in any of the parties, you'll use this to fine-tune your campaign strategy.

BluntTheApostle:
Rubbish poll.


Imagine it projects Labour Party to win Oyo, Ogun, Ekiti, Osun, Lagos.