nameo:
Where is my good friend @garfield1.

Food don come

Another pool from a highly reputable company that predicts an Obi's win, in almost the same scenario most other polls have also predicted: Obi wins SE, SS and NC. And does well in SW and some other minority parts of the NE/NW.

Link: https://www.stears.co/premium/article/stears-poll-predicts-nigerias-next-president/

garfield1:


Obi can't win nc.it also predicts tinubu winner in a low turnout scenario

OnyeAshuaUru:
Stears is confused.
Give us the percentage of poll respondents that said they will vote the presidential candidates and leave prediction for Nairaland resident urchins like Garfield.
A new Nigeria is POssible
Vote LP

OnyeAshuaUru:
Stears is confused.
Give us the percentage of poll respondents that said they will vote the presidential candidates and leave prediction for Nairaland resident urchins like Garfield.
A new Nigeria is POssible
Vote LP

nameo:


Lolz... garfield

Every single sceintific poll has said Obi will.win the NC.

They all cannot be making up this same shitt every single time. This is statistics and data science, guy. It is not dependent on one's "feelings" Bros.

It is what it is. Whether you or any other person like it or not

PS: See my modified comment (in my 1st comment) on the turnout scenario

MrEverest:


Lol, anyone who understands Nigeria brand of politics already knows that Tinubu is technically out. Right now, I'm more worried about Atiku than Tinubu because he can't possibly win considering how he is being rejected in the North. Already, Tinubu has no base in the SE, SS and among Nigerian Christians both North and South.

In other words, Tinubu will need to win all SW states with over 70% margin and still win at least NW or NE to win but that's impossible. He can't win SW with more than 55%. He can only win Kwara, Kogi, Borno and Yobe + 5 or 6 SW states and maybe 1 NW state that will give a total of 11 states maximum for Tinubu. To make matters worse fir him, he can't win any of these states landslide which means opponents will still drag significant votes from those states.

This is unlike Peter Obi who will easily win SE and SS landslide. Obi will likely win all 5 SE states, 6 SS states, added to Benue, Plateau, Abuja, and Taraba. That gives a total of 15. Obi also has a good chance of winning Lagos and Nasarawa. While getting more than 25% in Kaduna, Adamawa, Oyo, Ogun, Osun, Ekiti, Ondo, and Kogi.

Atiku will easily win most states in NE and NE but he won't get landslide margins he desperately needs. Also, it has become very difficult for him to get the constitutional requirements of 25% in 24 states since he has lost out in the South.

garfield1:


The first poll by anap said obi will tie nc with tinubu.but how will obi win nc? He is only sure of benue,plateau and fct.tinubu has kwara kogi and will best him in niger.obi won't do well in kwara, nger but tinubu will do well in benue,plateau

MrEverest:


Lol, anyone who understands Nigeria brand of politics already knows that Tinubu is technically out. Right now, I'm more worried about Atiku than Tinubu because he can't possibly win considering how he is being rejected in the North. Already, Tinubu has no base in the SE, SS and among Nigerian Christians both North and South.

In other words, Tinubu will need to win all SW states with over 70% margin and still win at least NW or NE to win but that's impossible. He can't win SW with more than 55%. He can only win Kwara, Kogi, Borno and Yobe + 5 or 6 SW states and maybe 1 NW state that will give a total of 11 states maximum for Tinubu. To make matters worse fir him, he can't win any of these states landslide which means opponents will still drag significant votes from those states.

This is unlike Peter Obi who will easily win SE and SS landslide. Obi will likely win all 5 SE states, 6 SS states, added to Benue, Plateau, Abuja, and Taraba. That gives a total of 15. Obi also has a good chance of winning Lagos and Nasarawa. While getting more than 25% in Kaduna, Adamawa, Oyo, Ogun, Osun, Ekiti, Ondo, and Kogi.

Atiku will easily win most states in NE and NE but he won't get landslide margins he desperately needs. Also, it has become very difficult for him to get the constitutional requirements of 25% in 24 states since he has lost out in the South.

nameo:
Another one.

This is Stears o. Abi na Obi friends still be this

I am coming, let me read through the report.


Modified: The poll results is very similar to other scientific poll results: Obi wins the SE(by a mile), SS(significantly), NC(slightly) and comes out 2nd in SW(behind Tinubu of course). Whilst Tinubu and Atiku drags the NW(here Kwankwaso is also strong) and NE.

Obi, tho still polling behind the field, also seems to be increasing his shares from parts of the NE(likely due to.Christain and minority voters there).

I am almost certain as someone who understands statistics that this is what the long expected 3rd NOI/ANAP poll will show later this week when it comes out. It is also what most other unsceintific polls have been showing.

Peter Obi is clearly the Leading candidate in this coming Presidential elections( and the worst case scenario for him is to get the elections to a 2nd round).

I big take away from this poll result from Stears is that the only scenario where another candidate(Tinubu in this case) beats Obi is if the voter turnout is low(about 35%). Altho this is from their Predictive Model, I hope LP supporters do not play with this info. I beleive it myself. The only way "structure" can be crucial in an election is if the voter tunrout is low cos then party members, candidate loyalist(family members, villagers, members of ethnic or religious groups) as well as those that can be bribed, will be the majority of the voters in the elections. That is when "structure" will matter.

See link to the report:

https://www.stears.co/premium/article/stears-poll-predicts-nigerias-next-president/

ganisucks:
I only recognize ANAP polls.

Jerrytheraregem:
Stears, a pan-African data company, released the results of a new, predictive electoral poll suggesting a Peter Obi victory by 9 percentage points in a high-turnout scenario and a tighter Tinubu victory in a low-turnout election.

To arrive at that conclusion, Stears conducted a statistically significant, nationally representative poll to survey voter preferences and intentions ahead of the 2023 elections.

Currently, the Stears poll is the largest public opinion electoral poll on the 2023 Elections with 6,220 Nigerians polled.

Read more about the poll here: https:///3ljaFta

nameo:


The percentage of who the respondents will vote(sample size of about 6500) is in their report. It is Obi of course.

Only when they did their Predictive Model of the data that Tinubu slightly wins in one scenario(Low.voters turnout). Obi wins their Predictive Model if voters turnout is high

nameo:


Yea, the 1st NOI poll was a tie. But all other polls(including subsequent NOI polls) have given him a slight lead.

I think it is cos Obi will do very well in Benue and Plateau, which are the 2 most populated states in the NC.

He will also win FCT of course. Of course will also do well in Nasawara.

Then he seems to be doing well in Kogi, Niger and even Kwara. He will not win in these states but his chances seem to be increasing , esp for Kogi

Like i said previously, it is what it is. This is what the data from various polling companies done scientifically is saying

MrEverest:


Lol, anyone who understands Nigeria brand of politics already knows that Tinubu is technically out. Right now, I'm more worried about Atiku than Tinubu because he can't possibly win considering how he is being rejected in the North. Already, Tinubu has no base in the SE, SS and among Nigerian Christians both North and South.

In other words, Tinubu will need to win all SW states with over 70% margin and still win at least NW or NE to win but that's impossible. He can't win SW with more than 55%. He can only win Kwara, Kogi, Borno and Yobe + 5 or 6 SW states and maybe 1 NW state that will give a total of 11 states maximum for Tinubu. To make matters worse fir him, he can't win any of these states landslide which means opponents will still drag significant votes from those states.

This is unlike Peter Obi who will easily win SE and SS landslide. Obi will likely win all 5 SE states, 6 SS states, added to Benue, Plateau, Abuja, and Taraba. That gives a total of 15. Obi also has a good chance of winning Lagos and Nasarawa. While getting more than 25% in Kaduna, Adamawa, Oyo, Ogun, Osun, Ekiti, Ondo, and Kogi.

Atiku will easily win most states in NE and NE but he won't get landslide margins he desperately needs. Also, it has become very difficult for him to get the constitutional requirements of 25% in 24 states since he has lost out in the South.

garfield1:


Me and you know he cannot do well from kogi.benue,plateau do not give bloc votes.kwara,niger, gives.I believe the last Bantu poll was the closest

OnyeAshuaUru:


Read the notes below the charts, Chief. The stated difference between Low and High turnout scenario s in their confusing predictive model is that, whereas respondents in the Low turnout prediction have their pvc and are certain of who they are going to vote out, respondents in the high turnout scenario includes all eligible voters who are not even sure if they are going to vote.
The so-called predictive model is deceptive, or it's meant to dilute the impulse of the losers in this poll.

Ezeama400:
OBIDIENTS PLEASE ENDEAVOUR TO TURN OUT THAT DAY.. A SINGLE VOTE MATTERS.. TELL YOUR FAMILY, FRIENDS AND COLLEAGUES