Joevics:
My only concern in this election is the south South. If they vote for Peter Obi, then he will win.
The 25% in all southwest states except Ekiti is guaranteed. The 25% in North central states is also guaranteed.

Felabrity:
Every polls are going with Peter Obi but I am still not impressed, it's not enough as most of the people they are asking are in the cities



Next time, they should avoid each candidate strongholds

julaion:
Breaking: Stears survey indicates Peter Obi will be the next president.

2023/02/07 AT 9:42 AM


What the survey found: According to the poll analysis, made available to Pulse on Tuesday, February 7, 2023, among voters who announced their candidate choice, Peter Obi is the candidate who receives at least 25% of the vote in the most geopolitical zones (5 out of 6). He has a 4-to-1 advantage against Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the All Progressives’ candidate, while PDP candidate Atiku Abubakar only receives 25% of the vote in two (2) geographical zones.

What you should know: According to two ANAP polls done between September and December 2022, Obi is ahead of other front-runners. In addition, the Nextier Poll recently indicated that Peter Obi will win.

What distinguishes the Stears poll from other polls is: The Nigerian survey with the highest sample size was conducted offline and included more than 6200 respondents.

Additionally, Stears overcame a challenge that had limited all other surveys, making this poll genuinely groundbreaking.


Michael Famoroti, Head of Intelligence & Co-Founder of Stears, explained this issue as now being resolved, “Peter Obi is in the lead with 27% of the vote, followed by Bola Ahmed Tinubu (15%) and Atiku Abubakar (12%), according to a simple examination of the poll results.

This is consistent with the findings of earlier surveys, although it is difficult to draw firm conclusions without taking into account the significant proportion of respondents who do not indicate a candidate preference—a figure that has reached as high as 50% in previously published surveys.

Stears’ patented algorithm is able to provide responses by forecasting the most likely candidate for quiet votes in cases where other polls have been unable to do so because of the significant percentage of silent voters.”


Who the quiet voters represent: Stears’ predictive model predicts that Tinubu will receive 43% of the undeclared votes, indicating that the majority of those who chose not to divulge their ballots were BATified.

When the reassigned quiet voters are added to the stated voter count, Peter Obi still leads all other front-runners.

Joevics:
My only concern in this election is the south South. If they vote for Peter Obi, then he will win.
The 25% in all southwest states except Ekiti is guaranteed. The 25% in North central states is also guaranteed.

garfield1:


Obi cannot get 25% in osun,ogun

Joevics:

I thought so as much. But a lot has changed in Ogun since OBJ declared for him.
As for Osun, 25% would likely be about 175,000 votes. Do he can pull through with votes from Igbos, non indigenes and his Osun supporters.