KingOfTheDamned:


You are a stark iliterate.


Bye

You will be very dissapointed

The overall prediction is very close but obi will get way lesser votes in the SS.

I will quote u after the election

ASAPFERG1:
nothing for OBIora

How can they allocate more than 4 votes to Obi? Have they forgotten the four people tweeting in a room? What has changed?

Labour wl come distance third and it wl be very difficult 4 d party to win jst a senatorial seat. Before 4 in the evening on the 25 many ppl wd hv deleted their account here

Mikekan30:
The so call myopic forecast was projected on the analysis of the old way of voting that is paper ballot drop but this time things has changed its Biometric voting.... Elections can't be rigged here it will be extremely difficult elections are not won by forecast data from previous outcomes, even the Trump Vs Biden elections was also projected in Trump's Favour but how did it pan out?

The North will be divided between Obi because of Datti
Atiku & Kwakwaso...

BAT will manage his controlled SW which we all know Lagos will be 50/50 because of other tribes, He will fail Ogun state because of OBJ..
His vote will be less than 5% APC Government is a mess and so people will respond to how they messed up the country, you cant be fooled twice unless you are a Dullard.

Obi will win SS/ SE convincely, Middle belt as well and share the North...
His threat will be Atiku..

Obi's winning Will be up to 12% while Atiku will be 10%......


This election is not about Party Partisan , this is more about personality, Real Change.

I can bet on you that Obi will not win any SS state

You will be so dissapointed on that day

Digitron:
Garfield1


See wetin I dey see ooo.

I am laughing 😂😀😂

I like it but the votes given to obi is too small

The blue fonts you used are destruction, and it's against the nairaland.com rules.
Why don't you take correction and stop being a public nuisance?
Do you actually gain anything by being an arse hole?

Ahuitzotl:
And how's my bluey your business? All these thiefffnubu urchins and BaTstards sef..mtcheww...

Sheggy13:

You mean PDP can't see 15% in Delta? This is a traditional PDP state with strong PDP base and structure, and has been voting PDP in all Presidential elections. A state where the incumbent governor of 8 years, also a senator and VP candidate of PDP wouldn't get 15%? Only a delusional person makes such a comment.

Guy u can imagine

These guys are just out of touch!
In what world do they live in?

Urchin1:


You will be very dissapointed

The overall prediction is very close but obi will get way lesser votes in the SS.

I will quote u after the election

obi wudnt win just a state outside SE and the total votes from SE wl be less than 5million

You cannot simply sit in your house in Ilorin and allocate votes to people based on your outdated and primordial sentiments.

The fact that you don't see or imagine PO getting as much as 25% in Benue or Kaduna is quite laughable. You must have assumed that every Nigerian in the North and North Central region prays with mat, jalabiya, and kettle.

Obinoscopy:
Naptu2, this projection is false. The reason is that it is using the mentality of a two party race. But this isn't a two party race. This is a four party race. So it's a complex race.

Anyone who dismisses LP and NNPP in this race is simply not in tune with the complexity of this current race. LP has a stronghold in the SS, SE and parts of NC and NE. NNPC holds supreme in parts of NW. This unbalances lots of political equations.

Anyways, the election is weeks away. I'll bookmark this thread and comment on it later after the results are out..

You de mind all these Tinubu supporters projecting nonsense.


Tinubu will win 35 states according to my own prediction, ndi ara

hedonido:


One has to be mentally disturbed to project a BAT victory when it is clear the man has zero appeal to the average non Yoruba voter. I don't understand you pseudo-'enlightened' creeps.

Who would vote for someone like this really? At least Buhari had his unassailable 'integrity' selling point that guaranteed him votes from the entire North to the South West. What does BAT have that would give him votes outside the South West? Is it his drug dealing reputation, extreme corruption, dubious personality and background, obvious signs of age and drug induced dementia and mental degradation, or what exactly? Or you're merely expecting his 'structures' to buy votes, coerce votes or manipulate votes? If this is the expectation, shouldn't you lot be ashamed of yourselves and hide your faces in shame rather than insult our sensibilities with stupid forecasts?

How do you win an election when you are not popular on the strength of your own personality with the average voter across geopolitical divides?

Even the best of you in spite of your intellectual pretentions haven't been able to explain how it would be possible for a discredited and obnoxious entity like BAT to inspire the votes of the average non Yoruba Nigerian. Instead you're relying on magic from compromised governors. Just makes no sense. That's why I'm disappointed that old folks like Naptu or Jarus can't hide their jaundiced faces rather than come out in the open to display weakly disguised Yoruba awalokan motivated nonsense.

Shame on you all.

Very shameful.



All that these so called Tinubu supporters are relying on is rigging and election compromise using corrupt Governors and political actors. They are not even projecting a Tinubu's win via Tinubu's good reputation or positive popularity among Nigerian voters, they are only projecting a Tinubu's win through rigging and malpractice using the so called corrupt, filthy political structures that kept Nigeria on the floor for decades, yet they pretentiously clamor for positive change in Nigeria albeit tribalism and religious bigotry reign supreme in all their dealings.




Part of the reasons Buhari failed is because Buhari was trying to compensate all the filthy corrupt politicians that brought the stinking structure that helped him win, hence Buhari's appointment of corrupt ex Governors as Ministers instead of using seasoned global technocrats to run his government like Obasanjo, Yaradua and Goodluck.



Obasanjo discovered great technocrats like Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Prof. Dora Akunyili, Oby Ezekwesili, Chukwuma Soludo, etc


Goodluck discovered Mrs Mohammed now with UN, Dr Akinwunmi Adesina now with AfDB, and many others.



Buhari was only busy recycling old corrupt Nigerian Governors and filthy political actors and this is what these political praise singers and sycophants supporting Bola Tinubu wants to continue, God forbid them all!

Urchin1:


You will be very dissapointed

The overall prediction is very close but obi will get way lesser votes in the SS.

I will quote u after the election

Look don't quote me again. I don't mean any disrespect but I don't respect your intellectual capacity. I only discuss with those whom I deduce are able to think and not trust talk . You can try other teenagers like yourself to discuss with don't bother me again

Bye

QuotaSystem:


The main difference between this projection and those social media and app based polls, is that while those ones suffer from poor sampling and skewed assumptions, this projection is based on verifiable historical electoral trends, a statistical 12% markup in PVC’s collected (due to increased enthusiasm and new technology) and other qualitative field data (e.g interviews and observations) that reflect reality.

So you believe that the PDP SS Governors will not be able to deliver their states to Atiku due to SE closeness to SS but the APC NW Governors will deliver their states to Tinubu withstanding NW closeness to NE.

The reality on ground in NW is that APC is only sure of winning Kebbi and Zamfara while PDP is only sure of Sokoto. Katsina is moving towards PDP while Kano , Jigawa and Kaduna are battlegrounds for PDP , NNPP and APC.

Hence Tinubu will not inherit Buhari NW bulk votes. Also there will be consequency for Tinubu Muslim Muslim ticket in APC SW states like Ondo , Ekiti and Ogun.

The Christians in those states will give Obi at least 25%.

The projection does not also note the increase participation of Nigeria youths particularly in the 17 southern states . This increase will favour Peter Obi and work against Tinubu.

Hence Lagos will be a tight race between Obi and Tinubu.

I foresee Atiku winning the election. He is the only candidate that can gather votes across the 6 regions. He will win 2 or 3 states in SS and 3 states in NC . He will win at least 3 states in NW and at least 4 in NE.

QuotaSystem:
Realistic forecast from a great mind 👏🏽👏🏽

The only objection I have is the winning margin. It will be significantly wider because of the unassailable edge that BAT has over AA in the SW, and the lost AA votes in his usual SS/SE stronghold, thanks to PO’s assistance.

What will now happen in NW and NE?

LordAdam16:


The BAT camp are counting on rigging.

The average Northerner will pick Atiku over Tinubu.
The average Belter will pick Atiku over Tinubu.
The average Easterner will pick Atiku over Tinubu.
The average Niger Deltan will pick Atiku over Tinubu.

They know this. But they're counting on the governors and political elite to sway votes their way. Ganduje, el Rufai and co are obviously courting Tinubu because of their future ambitions. It is expected that they'd direct the structures they control to vote Tinubu.

That is their primary and only ace card. If that fails, Tinubu will lu le even if he contests every year until he dies.

-Lord

When I saw Katsina, Kebbi, Nassarawa & Kaduna for Tinubu I almost fell of my chair. What most of these Tinubu supporters don't understand is that the so called Governors up North they are relying on can't influence the outcome of this election. Atiku will sweep most of the NW & NE and will come second in the SE while the SS will be 50/50, half of the North central will go to AA.

Tinubu will probably win the SW, Borno, Yobe, maybe Zamfara, Kwara and maybe Kogi, He will not win any State in the SE/SS and will likely not come second in any of those states.

Contrary to the wishes of most, Obi is not winning any state in the NC.

MikeofAfrica:


So you believe that the PDP SS Governors will not be able to deliver their states to Atiku due to SE closeness to SS but the APC NW Governors will deliver their states to Tinubu withstanding NW closeness to NE.

The reality on ground in NW is that APC is only sure of winning Kebbi and Zamfara while PDP is only sure of Sokoto. Katsina is moving towards PDP while Kano , Jigawa and Kaduna are battlegrounds for PDP , NNPP and APC.

Hence Tinubu will not inherit Buhari NW bulk votes. Also there will be consequency for Tinubu Muslim Muslim ticket in APC SW states like Ondo , Ekiti and Ogun.

The Christians in those states will give Obi at least 25%.

The projection does not also note the increase participation of Nigeria youths particularly in the 17 southern states . This increase will favour Peter Obi and work against Tinubu.

Hence Lagos will be a tight race between Obi and Tinubu.

I foresee Atiku winning the election. He is the only candidate that can gather votes across the 6 regions. He will win 2 or 3 states in SS and 3 states in NC . He will win at least 3 states in NW and at least 4 in NE.

yorubas don’t vote base on religion,go check abiola Muslim Muslim ticket in 93.
Ogun,ondo and ekiti are predominantly Christian states,obi won’t win any polling unit there especially ogun state.

It still shocks me how you obidient think you can give tinubu tough time in Lagos,same Lagos PDP can’t even boast of defeating tinubu for over 20yrs

MikeofAfrica:


So you believe that the PDP SS Governors will not be able to deliver their states to Atiku due to SE closeness to SS but the APC NW Governors will deliver their states to Tinubu withstanding NW closeness to NE.

The reality on ground in NW is that APC is only sure of winning Kebbi and Zamfara while PDP is only sure of Sokoto. Katsina is moving towards PDP while Kano , Jigawa and Kaduna are battlegrounds for PDP , NNPP and APC.

Hence Tinubu will not inherit Buhari NW bulk votes. Also there will be consequency for Tinubu Muslim Muslim ticket in APC SW states like Ondo , Ekiti and Ogun.

The Christians in those states will give Obi at least 25%.

The projection does not also note the increase participation of Nigeria youths particularly in the 17 southern states . This increase will favour Peter Obi and work against Tinubu.

Hence Lagos will be a tight race between Obi and Tinubu.

I foresee Atiku winning the election. He is the only candidate that can gather votes across the 6 regions. He will win 2 or 3 states in SS and 3 states in NC . He will win at least 3 states in NW and at least 4 in NE.

APC cannot win Kebbi as it stands, Jigawa is solidly PDP but I agree, Kano and Kaduna are battle grounds. AA will take 3 or 4 states in the NC.

LordAdam16:


The BAT camp are counting on rigging.

The average Northerner will pick Atiku over Tinubu.
The average Belter will pick Atiku over Tinubu.
The average Easterner will pick Atiku over Tinubu.
The average Niger Deltan will pick Atiku over Tinubu.

They know this. But they're counting on the governors and political elite to sway votes their way. Ganduje, el Rufai and co are obviously courting Tinubu because of their future ambitions. It is expected that they'd direct the structures they control to vote Tinubu.

That is their primary and only ace card. If that fails, Tinubu will lu le even if he contests every year until he dies.

-Lord

Both Tinubu and Atiku will lose. Granted that Atiku may be a little more appealing than APC's totally rotten candidate, but why will anyone go for a lesser devil when there is an Angel?

The only areas where Atiku will win over Obi is in NW and NE, most other places, Obi will rout Atiku.

1Dray:


If you think northerners will vote that pig called bat , then you will be fool of the century.

February 25th is around the corner

MikeofAfrica:


So you believe that the PDP SS Governors will not be able to deliver their states to Atiku due to SE closeness to SS but the APC NW Governors will deliver their states to Tinubu withstanding NW closeness to NE.

The reality on ground in NW is that APC is only sure of winning Kebbi and Zamfara while PDP is only sure of Sokoto. Katsina is moving towards PDP while Kano , Jigawa and Kaduna are battlegrounds for PDP , NNPP and APC.

Hence Tinubu will not inherit Buhari NW bulk votes. Also there will be consequency for Tinubu Muslim Muslim ticket in APC SW states like Ondo , Ekiti and Ogun.

The Christians in those states will give Obi at least 25%.

The projection does not also note the increase participation of Nigeria youths particularly in the 17 southern states . This increase will favour Peter Obi and work against Tinubu.

Hence Lagos will be a tight race between Obi and Tinubu.

I foresee Atiku winning the election. He is the only candidate that can gather votes across the 6 regions. He will win 2 or 3 states in SS and 3 states in NC . He will win at least 3 states in NW and at least 4 in NE.

Kiddo chill 😎

aninibinladen:


When I saw Katsina, Kebbi, Nassarawa & Kaduna for Tinubu I almost fell of my chair. What most of these Tinubu supporters don't understand is that the so called Governors up North they are relying on can't influence the outcome of this election. Atiku will sweep most of the NW & NE and will come second in the SE while the SS will be 50/50, half of the North central will go to AA.

Tinubu will probably win the SW, Borno, Yobe, maybe Zamfara, Kwara and maybe Kogi, He will not win any State in the SE/SS and will likely not come second in any of those states.

Contrary to the wishes of most, Obi is not winning any state in the NC.

PDP apologies it remains 12 days

Urchin1:
I can bet on you that Obi will not win any SS state

You will be so dissapointed on that day

You really must be living in the interior of Daura village to say such rubbish.

Lots of children and ignorant people have proliferated nairaland. If Obi doesn't win all SS states, who will? Atiku?

Don't you guys have brain to reason properly like humans?

Every poll both online and offline conducted by reputable independent organizations all indicate that Obi will sweep SE and SS but you with limited knowledge and understanding believe otherwise.

You agree that Obi can't win any state in NW because they're muslims but still believe that Atiku, a Muslim will win SS that are Christians? It's either you're a fool or you think SS people are fools.

hedonido:


One has to be mentally disturbed to project a BAT victory when it is clear the man has zero appeal to the average non Yoruba voter. I don't understand you pseudo-'enlightened' creeps.

Who would vote for someone like this really? At least Buhari had his unassailable 'integrity' selling point that guaranteed him votes from the entire North to the South West. What does BAT have that would give him votes outside the South West? Is it his drug dealing reputation, extreme corruption, dubious personality and background, obvious signs of age and drug induced dementia and mental degradation, or what exactly? Or you're merely expecting his 'structures' to buy votes, coerce votes or manipulate votes? If this is the expectation, shouldn't you lot be ashamed of yourselves and hide your faces in shame rather than insult our sensibilities with stupid forecasts?

How do you win an election when you are not popular on the strength of your own personality with the average voter across geopolitical divides?

Even the best of you in spite of your intellectual pretentions haven't been able to explain how it would be possible for a discredited and obnoxious entity like BAT to inspire the votes of the average non Yoruba Nigerian. Instead you're relying on magic from compromised governors. Just makes no sense. That's why I'm disappointed that old folks like Naptu or Jarus can't hide their jaundiced faces rather than come out in the open to display weakly disguised Yoruba awalokan motivated nonsense.

Shame on you all.

Don't mind them.
They say they ignored polling , which is the standard way of capturing data about voter sentiments. And they say that they are relying on the history of previous voting behavior. Basically, they are proud to be stuck in the past. They are acting like they are deaf and blind to the very loud clamor all over Nigeria for a different way of governance. 1
They are actually telling us that in 2023, 2015 and 2019 will repeat itself, simply because APC is the ruling party.
Nigerians will remind them that soooo much has changed since 2015, sooo much.

VTJN:
February 25th is around the corner

Exactly! that's what you should have thought before making that stupid and ignorant assumption.

Dsalvo:
My Nigga Naptu2 When are you going to openly declare for BAT? The whole 'I am netural' thing you do is commendable but time to take a stand buddy.

Jarus, a pragmatically intelligent political observer who has always been analytically astute, calls it right.

I will go one further by predicting Tinubu will defeat Atiku with a healthier margin than Jarus states and no chance of a run-off.

So because this online projection not even real poll from voters favored your agbado candidate, it suddenly needs to be celebrated

So polls matters abi??

INDOMIE9090:
yorubas don’t vote base on religion,go check abiola Muslim Muslim ticket in 93.
Ogun,ondo and ekiti are predominantly Christian states,obi won’t win any polling unit there especially ogun state.

It still shocks me how you obidient think you can give tinubu tough time in Lagos,same Lagos PDP can’t even boast of defeating tinubu for over 20yrs

The Dynamics of 1993 election is totally different from 2023 elections. There was nothing Islamic terrorists in Nigeria in 1993. Christians were not living in fear of been slaughtered by terrorists in 1993.

The reality on ground is that over 40 church members were slaughtered last year in Ondo. It was not an isolated case but an extension of killings of Christians in Kaduna and NC.

Buhari lost Ondo in 2019 because the people view him as an Islamic extremist. Tinubu is now running an Islamic extremist ticket and you think there will not be consequencies.

He will win Ondo, Ekiti and Ogun but Peter Obi will get 25% in those states while getting over 40% in Lagos.

PDP has been getting over 40% in Lagos even while in crisis. The reason is the votes of Igbos. Now the igbos are all out to vote Obi.

Mind you that more than 20% of Yorubas do not even like Tinubu due to his corrupt and overbearing nature. You saw what happened in Osun where his stooge, Oyetola, could not twice win the guber election .

MrEverest:


Both Tinubu and Atiku will lose. Granted that Atiku may be a little more appealing than APC's totally rotten candidate, but why will anyone go for a lesser devil when there is an Angel?

The only areas where Atiku will win over Obi is in NW and NE, most other places, Obi will rout Atiku.

Because that "Angel" does not stand a chance.

Total number of PVCs in Kano, Katsina, and Kaduna is more than 10m. I don't know if you guys can't do arithmetic or don't have access to calculators.

There is NO path to victory for Obi. NONE.

Let me tell you this, if Tinubu wins, it will be because of Obi. And I will not join Obidients to complain about Tinubu's administration. Personally, I've accepted Tinubu's victory.

You cannot cook with firewood and complain about smoke. Play stupid games, win stupid prizes. A bird in hand is worth two in the bush. Secure Atiku's mandate. In 2031, it'll be Osinbajo v Obi. That will be 16 good years of exceptional leadership.

-Lord

Racoon:
Let see how urchins and miscreants will not accept or be calling this senseless projection that narrowed a so called presidential contest to a 2-horse race.They will accept it and not claim elections are never won on social media. Bloody nauseating hypocrites.

You sabi them wella bro, see as dem dey jubilate ontop ordinary projection, not even real poll from real voters...

When it doesn't favor them, dey say election are not won on social media

Carmal90:

What will now happen in NW and NE?

Just stay tuned 😎

plaetton:

Don't mind them.
They say they ignored polling , which is the standard way of capturing data about voter sentiments. And they say that they are relying on the history of previous voting behavior. Basically, they are proud to be stuck in the past. They are acting like they are deaf and blind to the very loud clamor all over Nigeria for a different way of governance. 1
They are actually telling us that in 2023, 2015 and 2019 will repeat itself, simply because APC is the ruling party.
Nigerians will remind them that soooo much has changed since 2015, sooo much.

What will you do when they clearly rig the elections like they did in 2015 and 2019?

The Presidency and some powerful Northern elements are the only people standing in the way of the core ACN bloc in APC.

When they surmount that obstacle, it will be a done deal and you will go back to complaining on social media. That's the worst you will do.

-Lord

QuotaSystem:


Just stay tuned 😎

But South won't pay back Atiku?

In the next few day, every doubt will be cleared

MikeofAfrica:


So you believe that the PDP SS Governors will not be able to deliver their states to Atiku due to SE closeness to SS but the APC NW Governors will deliver their states to Tinubu withstanding NW closeness to NE.

The reality on ground in NW is that APC is only sure of winning Kebbi and Zamfara while PDP is only sure of Sokoto. Katsina is moving towards PDP while Kano , Jigawa and Kaduna are battlegrounds for PDP , NNPP and APC.

Hence Tinubu will not inherit Buhari NW bulk votes. Also there will be consequency for Tinubu Muslim Muslim ticket in APC SW states like Ondo , Ekiti and Ogun.

The Christians in those states will give Obi at least 25%.

The projection does not also note the increase participation of Nigeria youths particularly in the 17 southern states . This increase will favour Peter Obi and work against Tinubu.

Hence Lagos will be a tight race between Obi and Tinubu.

I foresee Atiku winning the election. He is the only candidate that can gather votes across the 6 regions. He will win 2 or 3 states in SS and 3 states in NC . He will win at least 3 states in NW and at least 4 in NE.

I hear you.

Good luck!