LordAdam16:


Because that "Angel" does not stand a chance.

Total number of PVCs in Kano, Katsina, and Kaduna is more than 10m. I don't know if you guys can't do arithmetic or don't have access to calculators.

There is NO path to victory for Obi. NONE.

Let me tell you this, if Tinubu wins, it will be because of Obi. And I will not join Obidients to complain about Tinubu's administration. Personally, I've accepted Tinubu's victory.

You cannot cook with firewood and complain about smoke. Play stupid games, win stupid prizes. A bird in hand is worth two in the bush. Secure Atiku's mandate. In 2031, it'll be Osinbajo v Obi. That will be 16 good years of exceptional leadership.

-Lord

My problem with this is, what if Atiku wins, and in 8 years time another Northern candidate contest?

Carmal90:


My problem with this is, what if Atiku wins, and in 8 years time another Northern candidate contest?

That Northern candidate will lose woefully.

It'll be a repeat of 2011 elections.

Atiku is finding it difficult now. That's after 8 years of Buhari.

That Northern candidate will not satisfy the 25% requirements. Not to mention actually winning the plurality of the contest.

-Lord

LordAdam16:


What will you do when they clearly rig the elections like they did in 2015 and 2019?

The Presidency and some powerful Northern elements are the only people standing in the way of the core ACN bloc in APC.

When they surmount that obstacle, it will be a done deal and you will go back to complaining on social media. That's the worst you will do.

-Lord

Well, it's obvious that you and I are not in the same league.
A rational person can only attempt to predict the outcome of a FREE and FAIR elections using current sampling data.
But living as we are in an irrational Dystopian Paradise, you and your type make your own predictions based on Election RIGGING structures and mechanisms.

You might be right in your RIGGING-factor predictions, but the point remains that you and I are not using the same metrics.

Carmal90:


But South won't pay back Atiku?

In the next few day, every doubt will be cleared

Yes, because the SE and a significant part of the SS are intoxicated by Obi.

The votes Atiku will get in the SS are welcome and desired as it will cancel out any incursion LP makes in Benue/Plateau states (with the extra effect of watering down AA's votes in those two PDP stronghold states). The rest of the NC states are for BAT.

I co-sign the last sentence along with you.

plaetton:

Well, it's obvious that you and I are not in the same league.
A rational person can only attempt to predict the outcome of a FREE and FAIR elections using current sampling data.
But living as we are in an irrational Dystopian Paradise, you and your type make your own predictions based on Election RIGGING structures and mechanisms.

You might be right in your RIGGING-factor predictions, but the point remains that you and I are not using the same metrics.

He is a realist! While unfortunate, rigging and Vote buying has become synonymous to Nigeria elections

BossGerald:


So because this online projection not even real poll from voters favored your agbado candidate, it suddenly needs to be celebrated

So polls matters abi??

If George Soros or Warren Buffet give you investment advice then you best take them seriously.

It is about the character and analytical intelligence of the person who submitted the projection supported of course by their history. Simple as that.

plaetton:

Well, it's obvious that you and I are not in the same league.
A rational person can only attempt to predict the outcome of a FREE and FAIR elections using current sampling data.
But living as we are in an irrational Dystopian Paradise, you and your type make your own predictions based on Election RIGGING structures and mechanisms.

You might be right in your RIGGING-factor predictions, but the point remains that you and I are not using the same metrics.

You acknowledge we are living in an "irrational dystopian paradise", but you are expecting things to be different for one day of the entire year.

I know Nigerians regularly have perplexing thought processes, but this takes the cake. It makes the "let's try Buhari" in 2015 seem tame.

You know if the election is rigged, Obi will not win. The person you're piling all your hopes on to stop the rigging is raising Tinubu's hand and calling him the next President.

As far as I'm concerned, Obi is a protest vote. You're voting for him because you are disillusioned by both leading candidates and don't want to sit at home on election day. Or you don't mind Tinubu winning, but you don't want to miss the roll call for the Obidient movement.

Those who actually believe Obi is going to win the election are pawns.

-Lord

Dsalvo:


If George Soros or Warren Buffet give you investment advice then you best take them seriously.

It is about the character and analytical intelligence of the person who submitted the projection supported of course by their history. Simple as that.

Haha...are you a comedian??

You never said this from onset as you keep discrediting every poll that didn't favor your candidate

Wonderful suddenly personal projection matters

QuotaSystem:


Yes, because the SE and a significant part of the SS are intoxicated by Obi.

The votes Atiku will get in the SS are welcome and desired as it will cancel out any incursion LP makes in Benue/Plateau states (with the extra effect of watering down AA's votes in those two PDP stronghold states). The rest of the NC states are for BAT.

I co-sign the last sentence along with you.

You clearly doesn't follow Nigeria presidential election since 1979.
A Southerner can't become the president of the country if he doesn't clear majority of Southern states.
Neither BAT nor Obi can clear majority of Southern states.
I call this election for AA

LordAdam16:


That Northern candidate will lose woefully.

It'll be a repeat of 2011 elections.

Atiku is finding it difficult now. That's after 8 years of Buhari.

That Northern candidate will not satisfy the 25% requirements. Not to mention actually winning the plurality of the contest.

-Lord

I strongly disagree.
Buhari failed in 2011 because he didn't form alliance.
Northerner still voted for him in 2011.

Carmal90:


You clearly doesn't follow Nigeria presidential election since 1979.
A Southerner can't become the president of the country if he doesn't clear majority of Southern states.
Neither BAT nor Obi can clear majority of Southern states.
I call this election for AA

K

Using predictions and analysis of past elections to predict the election results is not a process for accurary.

I commend your work tho, great analysis, but you gave Bola Ahmed Tinubu and Atiku Abubakar too much "hype" and you underestimate Peter Obi and Rabui Kwankwaso.

If your predictions were factual and close to reality, at least it should have been recognized by any of the leading TV NEWS stations.

I suggest you conduct an opinion poll of voters intention and stop trying to drift away from reality. Again good analysis, I couldn't have done that myself because I am busy with the real world.

I hope you don't get surprised after the election fails to go in your favour.

elantraceey:


Stop spreading falsehoods. This was what was said in 2019 and it drastically reduced Atikus chances. I just hope and believe the Igbos are wiser now.

From what I heard ipob said that eastern border will be locked and any one seeing outside on the voting day will be killed

MrEverest:


You really must be living in the interior of Daura village to say such rubbish.

Lots of children and ignorant people have proliferated nairaland. If Obi doesn't win all SS states, who will? Atiku?

Don't you guys have brain to reason properly like humans?

Every poll both online and offline conducted by reputable independent organizations all indicate that Obi will sweep SE and SS but you with limited knowledge and understanding believe otherwise.

You agree that Obi can't win any state in NW because they're muslims but still believe that Atiku, a Muslim will win SS that are Christians? It's either you're a fool or you think SS people are fools.

Not too much talk, we will see!

I still stand that Obi will not win any SS state
I will quote and laugh at you after the election

Carmal90:


I strongly disagree.
Buhari failed in 2011 because he didn't form alliance.
Northerner still voted for him in 2011.

Yes, and the alliance he formed in 2015 was to remove a Southern President.

The only people who will betray the South in 2031 are the Westerners. And I am telling you it will be inconsequential.

If Atiku wins, SW would know that the North cannot be trusted to hand over power back to them, which was the primary reason for the 2015 alliance.

The Northern candidate will get votes, but like in 2011, it will be inconsequential.

-Lord

LordAdam16:


You acknowledge we are living in an "irrational dystopian paradise", but you are expecting things to be different for one day of the entire year.

Yes, even in a Dystopian Paradise, change is still the only constant in the universe.
It is not delusion to expect a once in a generation catastrophic event, an earthquake, a momentary change in perspective , that upends the dystopian paradise and the structures that sustain it.

LordAdam16:

I know Nigerians regularly have perplexing thought processes, but this takes the cake. It makes the "let's try Buhari" in 2015 seem tame.

There is no equivalence to the ' let's try Buhari ' irrationality to the genuine, organically grown clamor for something different, a new way of governance. Buhari was packaged in the same way that 419 craftsmen package their craft to gullible prospects. For that brief moment, we forgot about his 2 previous missionless,
catastrophic journeys in governance .
I do believe that Nigerians have grown a tad wiser now. And that is what is going to make all the difference going forward.

LordAdam16:


You know if the election is rigged, Obi will not win.

When the election is rigged ,no one wins.

LordAdam16:


As far as I'm concerned, Obi is a protest vote. You're voting for him because you are disillusioned by both leading candidates and don't want to sit at home on election day.

I'm not sure how this makes any sense as an argument.

All votes not cast for the ruling party are protest votes by default.
And yes, people cast protest votes out of disillusionment for the ruling party, Duuuh!
And please look around you , from North to South, East to West, the Nigerian people are very very disillusioned with the government and the Rapacious political elites that sit on their collective destinies.

plaetton:

Yes, even in a Dystopian Paradise, change is still the only constant in the universe.
It is not delusion to expect a once in a generation catastrophic event, an earthquake, a momentary change in perspective , that upends the dystopian paradise and the structures that sustain it.


There is no equivalence to the ' let's try Buhari ' irrationality to the genuine, organically grown clamor for something different, a new way of governance. Buhari was packaged in the same way that 419 craftsmen package their craft to gullible prospects. For that brief moment, we forgot about his 2 previous missionless,
catastrophic journeys in governance .
I do believe that Nigerians have grown a tad wiser now. And that is what is going to make all the difference going forward.


When the election is rigged ,no one wins.


I'm not sure how this makes any sense as an argument.

All votes not cast for the ruling party are protest votes by default.
And yes, people cast protest votes out of disillusionment for the ruling party, Duuuh!
And please look around you , from North to South, East to West, the Nigerian people are very very disillusioned the government and the Rapacious political elites that sit on their collective destinies.

Mk 25th do reach mk we rest.

I sha know no body should complain, since na always Southerners dey loud pass, because whether intentionally or by omission we'll all have contributed to whoever wins the election.

From those hoping for a miracle to those who are unequivocally voting for Tinubu.

-Lord

Flawed forecast based on outdated knowledge.

Just one question: Why do you think the projected turn out is going to be unprecedented?

LordAdam16:


Because that "Angel" does not stand a chance.

Total number of PVCs in Kano, Katsina, and Kaduna is more than 10m. I don't know if you guys can't do arithmetic or don't have access to calculators.

There is NO path to victory for Obi. NONE.

Let me tell you this, if Tinubu wins, it will be because of Obi. And I will not join Obidients to complain about Tinubu's administration. Personally, I've accepted Tinubu's victory.

You cannot cook with firewood and complain about smoke. Play stupid games, win stupid prizes. A bird in hand is worth two in the bush. Secure Atiku's mandate. In 2031, it'll be Osinbajo v Obi. That will be 16 good years of exceptional leadership.

-Lord

Your Kano, Kaduna and Katsina's 10 million votes will be torn to shreds. Kwankwaso wins Kano, Tinubu and Atiku drags Katsina while all the major candidates devour Kaduna.

The rest of NW and NE follows same pattern of being divided by Kwankwaso, Tinubu and Atiku while Obi gets significant votes in Kaduna and Taraba with some margins in Gombe, Bauchi, Adamawa etc.

Obi sweeps SE, SS, Abuja, and wins NC, then also wins Lagos or comes a close 2nd.

If you can't see that Peter Obi is your next president then I can't help you, reality will hit you in a matter of days!

--Mr Everest!

Man proposes but God disposes.

Case Closed

naptu2:
Sir J (J9) @SirJarus



https://twitter.com/SirJarus/status/1624512572413120517

YOU GUYS HAVE COLLECTED YOUR USUAL BRIBES TO START SPEWING TRASH

GOD WILL SHAME ALL OF YOU


ANYONE WHO COLLECTS MONEY FROM ACCLAIMED THIEVES TO DESTROY NIGERIA WILL VORMIT WHATEVER THEY ATE

Obinoscopy:
Naptu2, this projection is false. The reason is that it is using the mentality of a two party race. But this isn't a two party race. This is a four party race. So it's a complex race.

Anyone who dismisses LP and NNPP in this race is simply not in tune with the complexity of this current race. LP has a stronghold in the SS, SE and parts of NC and NE. NNPC holds supreme in parts of NW. This unbalances lots of political equations.

Anyways, the election is weeks away. I'll bookmark this thread and comment on it later after the results are out..

Your comment should be directed at Jarus https://twitter.com/SirJarus/status/1624512572413120517

...

If IPOB pigs catch this man him own don finish
How dare he not project Peter Gringory Obi as the winner?

LordAdam16:


Because that "Angel" does not stand a chance.

Total number of PVCs in Kano, Katsina, and Kaduna is more than 10m. I don't know if you guys can't do arithmetic or don't have access to calculators.

There is NO path to victory for Obi. NONE.

Let me tell you this, if Tinubu wins, it will be because of Obi. And I will not join Obidients to complain about Tinubu's administration. Personally, I've accepted Tinubu's victory.

You cannot cook with firewood and complain about smoke. Play stupid games, win stupid prizes. A bird in hand is worth two in the bush. Secure Atiku's mandate. In 2031, it'll be Osinbajo v Obi. That will be 16 good years of exceptional leadership.

-Lord

I stated it here clearly months ago: https://www.nairaland.com/7225545/why-peter-obi-step-down

Peter Obi cannot win the election. I don't know why his supporters have yet to face reality. The best outcome I expect is a re-run, then Peter Obi borrow sense and urges his supporters to vote for Atiku.

naptu2:


Your comment should be directed at Jarus https://twitter.com/SirJarus/status/1624512572413120517

No, I intend my comment to be directed to everyone who will read Jarus's Projection here on nairaland.

Obinoscopy:
No, I intend my comment to be directed to everyone who will read Jarus's Projection here on nairaland.

Oh, that's not what I meant. If you simply wanted your comment to be read by everybody that reads Jarus' comment on Nairaland, then you can post it without mentioning me. You mentioned me as if I was the author of the forecast and I told you to direct your comment at the author of the forecast (I'm sure you understand this).

Dsalvo:


Spot on. My opinion too. Nigeria mirrored a strong two-Party nation, that many western and developed nations are, before the deliberate machinations of Buhari and his crew when they opted for a divide-and-conquer weakening of our existing political Party reality to the detriment of APC.

Nothing indicates this more than the farce the APC Primaries was last year.

But for Buhari deliberately weakening the ruling Party he heads, the APC would be on course for a landslide victory today.

Obi may not even be contesting had APC sustained its characteristically strong and dominant ruling Party status that a committed, sincere, uniting and team-builidng APC President would have easily ensured.

the PDP was virtually at death's door before the self-destructive implosion of the APC Buhari and his pro-North cabal began precipitating with the open undermining of APC's candidate in Edo State that allowed PDP gain some reprieve with Obaseki's win.

Nonetheless, and despite the challenges thrown before BAT by those at the highest echelon of APC power structure, many leaders with political interests beyond May 29th, when Buhari officially bows out, will help Tinubu get over the line comfortably because they know an Atiku win negatively balkanises Nigeria politically forever and ruin their own future also.

Only a Tinubu win ticks all the boxes, for everyone, to include even the need for Nigeria to gain the best President out of all those available.

Tinubu urchins, make una rest.

The two factors that finally nailed the APC coffin are Buhari's disastrous performance in office and the bought nomination of a visibly weak candidate, Ahmed Tinubu. Throw in an Osinbajo, and this election would have been over before 12 noon on election day.

Playing mind games of the kind displayed in the above contributions will not cut it with Nigerians, who are now finally awake and eager to usher in a new political epoch in their lives.

Any idiot can type rubbish on his phone or whatever device in the guise of political punditry. But get this, APC, fight dirty as it will, because that is what Tinubu is known for, will lose this election.

Peter Obi is your new president after this election.

Gerrard59:


I stated it here clearly months ago: https://www.nairaland.com/7225545/why-peter-obi-step-down

Peter Obi cannot win the election. I don't know why his supporters have yet to face reality. The best outcome I expect is a re-run, then Peter Obi borrow sense and urges his supporters to vote for Atiku.

Nigeria faces a lot of challenges.

The lack of sound, rational reasoning amongst the hoi polloi is an understated bottleneck.

Thankfully, all three leading candidates are superb choices. I'll pick any of them over Buhari any day. In that sense, we'd make appreciable progress regardless of the winner.

Consequently, I am not as concerned about this round as I was in 2015.

That said, it is disappointing to realize that the Better South could lose out and be onlookers from outside the Rock for 16 straight years. And it will entirely be the twin region's fault.

-Lord

naptu2:


Oh, that's not what I meant. If you simply wanted your comment to be read by everybody that reads Jarus' comment on Nairaland, then you can post it without mentioning me. You mentioned me as if I was the author of the forecast and I told you to direct your comment at the author of the forecast (I'm sure you understand this).

Yeah I understand you. I am not quoting you because you are Jarus. I'm quoting you because you created a thread on Jarus's Projection. I'm not in anyway suggesting you agree with Jarus's Projection...heck I don't read minds. But I know you are the OP of this thread hence the mention. I meant no attack, I just want to bring my opinion to you and the rest of the NLers that will read this thread.

caleboxylic:


We are just 12 days and this guy will get the 29%
He allocated to AA in Enugu. Very funny analysis. In addition, the turnout in east north central and south south will double that of 2019.
Let me tell you for the first time, east will Record minimum of 80% turnout come 25th.

With unknown gun men ?