₦airaland Forum

duro4chang:
The poll claimed Buhari would win in 2019 and he won but you people claimed here on Nairaland that Atiku won but Buhari rigged the election.

What a great point! Thank God there are still Nigerians like you who have the capacity for logical thinking.

Guyman01:
I am campaigning seriously for ObiDatti in my own way, I was in a public transport and someone was promoting Tinubu.
I brought out my phone and showed the passengers the video of Tinubu raising his walking stick during national anthem with Oshiomole struggling to pull his hands down.

I showed them another video of Tinubu leaking the microphone when he was asked to test the microphone.

Then I asked them is this the kind of leadership you want to run your private personal company?
One Mallam in the vehicle shouted "Allah Kiyaye" a Tiv man then said I didn't know it was this bad until you showed me this video and he is now finaly convinced to vote for PO and Datti.

Did you tell them that:
1. Peter Obi was the first governor to deport non-indigenes from his state.
2. Obi took Anambra's money and invested it in his family business.
3. Obi stack money from his Anambra's business in offshore account to avoid paying taxes in Anambra state?

Okorosemeka:
if you even look at the percentage of undecided voters in the southwest it is the highest at 30%,what does it mean?from my own layman point of view it means the people are afraid of persecution by thugs if they reveal PO is their preferred candidates,if it BAT they will not be undecided,so those undecided votes are for PO.

So, basically you are telling me that Igbos in SE will vote Obi but Yorubas in SW will ALSO vote Obi for president? Meaning, Tinubu will lose to Obi in SW Nigeria?

Ndubuisipaul1:
When I look at the billions Tinubu is taking home monthly just because he is Lagos ex governor and I look at how Peter Obi rejected everything, including his gratuity, I become tempted to vote Obi.

But as a professional tribal bigot and naturally w!cked person, I will vote BAT

Show me just one transaction slip to support the emboldened. No insults. No threats of violence. Just back up your claim with concrete evidence. Thank you.

Here is my take:

The election will be won by the candidate who takes the 53% undecided vote. Here is where Peter Obi has a problem. His supporters are NOT undecided. They are loud and can't wait to let anyone know that they're voting for Obi. So, Obi will get little or none of the undecided votes. Obi is tapped out. The polls are showing his maximum number.

My verdict: The undecided will be shared by Tinubu and Atiku. And if one of them gets a significant majority of this block, the person wins. Therefore, its still between Atiku and Tinubu.

If you quote me, never use insults or threats. You will be ignored completely. Thanks.

Beolly:
Taraba is North East not middle belt, Niger, Nasarawa, Plateau are majorly Hausa speaking States and then Kwara with a Yoruba majority. You can talk about Obi winning benue and splitting vote with the other candidates in Abuja and Kogi nobody will drag that with you.

you might be right, but I can bet with you. OBI will win in Plateau state.

Once again I have to say this. It's not about tribe this time

Legitisreal:
the question is how many people did you meet cos even Nigeria census can't reach the majority and where did you carry it out, cos the 2019 own of buhari been preferred generally bursted everything

it remains the Igbo propaganda, because they where the ones who campaigned for atiku in 2019 because of obi, nobody outside igboland gave a bleep about him till this propaganda, there has been free and fair election since and Lagos etc are yet to leave tinubu hands

obi doesn't even believe he would see 25% on far north, there is a reason he is going all Christian approach to maximize Christian votes

Are you even sure kwanwanso won't step down before next week, look what buhari is doing to tinubu, it's one north

fair enough to reality, but don't say atiku have no ground here, cos PDP does as a party, obi would still face issues here because he is only looking at taking PDP traditional votes as the ardent apc voters are already fixed at tinubu

The so called undecided, liberal, Christian's are still PDP traditional block, he would get some but party faithful ardent won't follow

Hence obi is helping tinubu in the sw, I can see why you said 25% cos obi and atiku would battle for that 40%

not might, atiku would get his mandatory 25% here in SE because the PDP structure is there, senators across PDP would be voting same day so they would mobilize their support on a streak, not many would adhere but the much that would do would solidify atiku 25% above

In SS you would be shocked Delta, Bayelsa, Akwa Ibom, Edo PDP would win one or two states here, the Governors are fully on ground, voting pattern here is very strong, and if there is an upset I can assure you no way PDP is getting less than 45% which makes it a worthless win for obi in SS

If you know middle belt is a free for all why then have your likes added it as a region for obi?

Taraba is northeast, they are ardent followers of atiku because he highest employer of labour here, remember mama taraba resigned her minister appointment with buhari to support atiku,

Abuja benue and plateau can never give anyone 75% go and check the voting history, since 2015 it's always split

45%/55%, With PDP on the ballot obi won't even see 60% here because he is banking on traditional PDP voting block, just like SW some would come to him that are taken away with his stories, but not less than half of the same block would remain for PDP

Apc already have ardent supporters that would vote them here just like SW whether person is dieing or not is not their concern

So it's really a stalemate in Abuja, benue, plataue but in kwara, Nassarawa, kogi, Niger while apc and PDP are sharing states here LP would be absent

So PDP has a better ratio in fighting with LP and Apc at different battleground

I like the way you explained your points. You might just have a point. The only error in all this you typed is that you still making a mistake, thinking this election would be as every other elections we have witnessed in the passed where we always have just two major parties going head to head.

* Secondly, that a state government is from a particular political party don't mean the state will vote in that direction. It's all changed now. This is the reason why Wike cannot announce that he supports APC because he knows the street is for OBI yet these are same people that would vote his governorship candidate. If he comes out openly, his candidate will lose.

This time around we have too many defining factors. And yes I agree with you for the middle belt. Whoever wins from region shouldn't get more than 55 - 60% as the other two parties would dig up votes too. But it remains the deciding region still.

Legitisreal:
Polls are deceitful

90% northerners don't have access to Internet and would be voting

since 2011, yorubas and igbos north where alligned with Gej

In 2015 yorubas unleashed propaganda for buhari without igbos, but north was with them

You can see where your polls failed in 2019 because no public opinion really fancied buhari then how did he win? (Their fake rushed edit can't sell such lie)

In 2023 igbos are unleashing propaganda without yorubas as public opinion but no north

In all the result since 2011 the north remains the determining factor

You're right that north has been the determining factor. The difference thing now is that nobody will get the north block vote. Northerner votes will shared

Alezy:
I like the way you explained your points. You might just have a point. The only error in all this you typed is that you still making a mistake, thinking this election would be as every other elections we have witnessed in the passed where we always have just two major parties going head to head.

* Secondly, that a state government is from a particular political party don't mean the state will vote in that direction. It's all changed now. This is the reason why Wike cannot announce that he supports APC because he knows the street is for OBI yet these are same people that would vote his governorship candidate. If he comes out openly, his candidate will lose.

This time around we have too many defining factors. And yes I agree with you for the middle belt. Whoever wins from region shouldn't get more than 55 - 60% as the other two parties would dig up votes too. But it remains the deciding region still.

you seem civilized

At least you do try to look at reality politically, for sure I get your point of the election looking different.

But in reality 95% of those chanting obi now or saying change are PDP block b4, question is how much was PDP itself able to do in 2019 election without fraction?

At bolded of yours, we call it three but in reality it's LP dividing already established PDP base, they aren't penetrating those that would even keep voting apc in their 45% upwards from Yorubaland down north

In reality there is already a voting block even when you keep saying we the people are the structure, there is never absence of a block.

PDP won the same SE/SS and some middle belt in 2019 (is this not the highest possible outcome obi is "wishing" for).

What is now the decider?

The North as usual, with what buhari is doing to tinubu now and the tears from ganduje, etc that tinubu is hoping on, it is safe to say tinubu would be finished up north by atiku

If you say kwanwanso would split atiku vote then ask yourself how important was his vote to atiku when he supported in 2019, apart from Kano, atiku would win him well all over north

North is smart, forget buhari winning atiku, when in power they try to finish one line first before going for another of theirs

Where tinubu is missing it?

Tinubu is only hoping on the block fanatic apc supporters many of whom are buhari group, but he doesn't realize their fanatism to apc whether good or bad is their loyalty to north.

And this fantism favor them to switch parties depending on which side benefits north more, I guess tinubu already know buhari and his people are working against him.

The fanatism tinubu gets in south west apc, he can't get in north because Yoruba apc supporters have no other party to run to but north does

Obi in Southwest

Expect tinubu to pick the usual 50% of apc here, this time he would make it 55%-60% because a son is contesting.

It's the reality of tribal politics in SW, you either believe or not but you have seen his last Oyo reception

So tinubu would clear all SW states, the hope of obident is that SW would give LP votes but these so called SW Christian's and liberals are already the PDP voting block that gets 40/45%

The yorubas in apc (acn) seem to see support for apc as support for their political survival, and reality is they have nowhere else to go.

So it's a case of how much can obi take of 45% which PDP would still take inside, either way obi game is over if it's just SE/SS that he aims for win.

Let me not even go into wike, because apc is already taboo in SS/SE, do you think like his other colleagues he would have problem marketing atiku which has been done before

Prestige77:
You're right that north has been the determining factor. The difference thing now is that nobody will get the north block vote. Northerner votes will shared

if north would be shared tinubu and the govs he is hoping on to deliver up north won't be crying

For kwanwanso he is only relevant in Kano, atiku would win else where

Legitisreal:
you seem civilized

At least you do try to look at reality politically, for sure I get your point of the election looking different.

But in reality 95% of those chanting obi now or saying change are PDP block b4, question is how much was PDP itself able to do in 2019 election without fraction?

At bolded of yours, we call it three but in reality it's LP dividing already established PDP base, they aren't penetrating those that would even keep voting apc in their 45% upwards from Yorubaland down north

In reality there is already a voting block even when you keep saying we the people are the structure, there is never absence of a block.

PDP won the same SE/SS and some middle belt in 2019 (is this not the highest possible outcome obi is "wishing" for).

What is now the decider?

The North as usual, with what buhari is doing to tinubu now and the tears from ganduje, etc that tinubu is hoping on, it is safe to say tinubu would be finished up north by atiku

If you say kwanwanso would split atiku vote then ask yourself how important was his vote to atiku when he supported in 2019, apart from Kano, atiku would win him well all over north

North is smart, forget buhari winning atiku, when in power they try to finish one line first before going for another of theirs

Where tinubu is missing it?

Tinubu is only hoping on the block fanatic apc supporters many of whom are buhari group, but he doesn't realize their fanatism to apc whether good or bad is their loyalty to north.

And this fantism favor them to switch parties depending on which side benefits north more, I guess tinubu already know buhari and his people are working against him.

The fanatism tinubu gets in south west apc, he can't get in north because Yoruba apc supporters have no other party to run to but north does

Obi in Southwest

Expect tinubu to pick the usual 50% of apc here, this time he would make it 55%-60% because a son is contesting.

It's the reality of tribal politics in SW, you either believe or not but you have seen his last Oyo reception

So tinubu would clear all SW states, the hope of obident is that SW would give LP votes but these so called SW Christian's and liberals are already the PDP voting block that gets 40/45%

The yorubas in apc (acn) seem to see support for apc as support for their political survival, and reality is they have nowhere else to go.

So it's a case of how much can obi take of 45% which PDP would still take inside, either way obi game is over if it's just SE/SS that he aims for win.

Let me not even go into wike, because apc is already taboo in SS/SE, do you think like his other colleagues he would have problem marketing atiku which has been done before

Wike cannot market Atiku or Tinubu. So his politics of silence fits him best.

Let's not forget majority of the people who gave PDP votes did because of Obi. Did you see Lagos, Ogun, Oyo results the last time? Well we will be decieving ourselves if we think it's only PDP voters obi is collecting. It will shock you. I have friends in kaduna and trust me, that results will shock many. Nigerians are tired. It is only the fanatics who don't think about how Nigeria is dating, only thinking about party that would vote an APC even in the west or a PDP even in the south( with this logic, you should know obi/kwankwaso collected voters from both PDP and APC.

Again, you still making the mistake of using the last election to decide. See, 85% of those block votes from every region would be scattered this time. Unless from the region the said candidate is from. No block votes like before. No body will inherit Buhari's combined votes from West and north. It will be shared. Watch out

In reality, I am projecting a rerun like Inec once said. Because from what I am seeing, none of them would meet the requirements to be announced winner.

Alezy:
Wike cannot market Atiku or Tinubu. So his politics of silence fits him best.

Let's not forget majority of the people who gave PDP votes did because of Obi. Did you see Lagos, Ogun, Oyo results the last time? Well we will be decieving ourselves if we think it's only PDP voters obi is collecting. It will shock you. I have friends in kaduna and trust me, that results will shock many. Nigerians are tired. It is only the fanatics who don't think about how Nigeria is dating, only thinking about party that would vote an APC even in the west or a PDP even in the south( with this logic, you should know obi/kwankwaso collected voters from both PDP and APC.

Again, you still making the mistake of using the last election to decide. See, 85% of those block votes from every region would be scattered this time. Unless from the region the said candidate is from. No block votes like before. No body will inherit Buhari's combined votes from West and north. It will be shared. Watch out

In reality, I am projecting a rerun like Inec once said. Because from what I am seeing, none of them would meet the requirements to be announced winner.

The thing about most people supporting obi is that they just want to believe what they feel and damn every antecedent.

Even when obi was in apga, his region and SS have been voting PDP so how come it's him that suddenly made people to vote PDP in 2019?

Who where they ever going to vote, so obi base is already acertained as PDP block.

You talk of change but we have seen more massive change in history (the two where headed by the core north and Yoruba in 1993, 2015).

How come in the two igbos didn't buy into it? When you figure it out, you would see that the region the change is coming from also matters

You want to ignore voting pattern over the years but these are like consistent past questions to an exam.

You group SE/SS as one for obi simply because of voting history and antecedent

You talk of obi getting other voters but the areas he is banking on is not as if apc was even relevant in it same PDP voters

The North is where he would have harvested new voters because I believe I have addressed why the SW votes would always be split since history (one side is guaranteed again for tinubu) while atiku and obi shares the half or less than half which is same voters

Let me shock you now that whether you see propaganda videos 10 times a day it doesn't change the fact that they are politically under a state.

Then the question is what has the state done that is different from the previous voting pattern

If igbos like duplicate video from all across the markets of obi, it's for example the same abia, enugu, imo, ebonyi which we know their maximum voting capacity can be watered down by two states up north

Legitisreal:
The thing about most people supporting obi is that they just want to believe what they feel and damn every antecedent.

Even when obi was in apga, his region and SS have been voting PDP so how come it's him that suddenly made people to vote PDP in 2019?

Who where they ever going to vote, so obi base is already acertained as PDP block.

You talk of change but we have seen more massive change in history (the two where headed by the core north and Yoruba in 1993, 2015).

How come in the two igbos didn't buy into it? When you figure it out, you would see that the region the change is coming from also matters

You want to ignore voting pattern over the years but these are like consistent past questions to an exam.

You group SE/SS as one for obi simply because of voting history and antecedent

You talk of obi getting other voters but the areas he is banking on is not as if apc was even relevant in it same PDP voters

The North is where he would have harvested new voters because I believe I have addressed why the SW votes would always be split since history (one side is guaranteed again for tinubu) while atiku and obi shares the half or less than half which is same voters

Let me shock you now that whether you see propaganda videos 10 times a day it doesn't change the fact that they are politically under a state.

Then the question is what has the state done that is different from the previous voting pattern

If igbos like duplicate video from all across the markets of obi, it's for example the same abia, enugu, imo, ebonyi which we know their maximum voting capacity can be watered down by two states up north

well, you seem to believe more in the regional and past voting structure. The election is in 7days. I will remind you bro. Cheers

Legitisreal:
but they where with Gej offline

In 2023 do they know Adaobi, it's atiku and kwanwanso over there

That's why the poll is trash

You can tell me obi would win SE, I would believe because that's the position of average Igbo man, same way it is for atiku in north

Look at the stats and percentages stated very well.

Legitisreal:
The thing about most people supporting obi is that they just want to believe what they feel and damn every antecedent.

Even when obi was in apga, his region and SS have been voting PDP so how come it's him that suddenly made people to vote PDP in 2019?

Who where they ever going to vote, so obi base is already acertained as PDP block.

You talk of change but we have seen more massive change in history (the two where headed by the core north and Yoruba in 1993, 2015).

How come in the two igbos didn't buy into it? When you figure it out, you would see that the region the change is coming from also matters

You want to ignore voting pattern over the years but these are like consistent past questions to an exam.

You group SE/SS as one for obi simply because of voting history and antecedent

You talk of obi getting other voters but the areas he is banking on is not as if apc was even relevant in it same PDP voters

The North is where he would have harvested new voters because I believe I have addressed why the SW votes would always be split since history (one side is guaranteed again for tinubu) while atiku and obi shares the half or less than half which is same voters

Let me shock you now that whether you see propaganda videos 10 times a day it doesn't change the fact that they are politically under a state.

Then the question is what has the state done that is different from the previous voting pattern

If igbos like duplicate video from all across the markets of obi, it's for example the same abia, enugu, imo, ebonyi which we know their maximum voting capacity can be watered down by two states up north

Good day bro.

What's your assessment of the past presidential election??