₦airaland Forum

Recall I had performed an analysis of the presidential results on the IREV portal and came to the conclusion that APC won based on the results on IREV. See link to the thread here: https://www.nairaland.com/7626424/inec-result-analysis-based-samples

However I noticed some discrepancies in the result for Rivers State and decided to probe further. Again I used simple random sampling and multistage sampling to ensure that every polling unit had equal chance of being selected. I used a sample size of 198. I got the sample size using the formula:

Sample Size = S/(1+S/N)
Where S = z²*p*(1-p)/e²

And where z is the z-score which is 1.96 for a 95% confidence level
p is the population proportion of those who voted in Rivers State which is 15.6%
e is the margin of error which we take as 5%
N is the population size (total number of polling units in Rivers State) which is 6866.

The result is mind boggling.

RESULT
So after collating the results sheets from randomly selected 198 polling units, APC got a total of 4637 votes, LP got 8129 votes, NNPP got 47 votes and PDP got 3578 votes. So LP (and not APC as we were meant to believe) got the majority of votes followed by APC, then PDP and finally NNPP. Infact LP got more than 50% of the vote such that if you combine APC and PDP votes its still less than LP’s votes. This corroborates Peter Obi claim that he got 50% of the votes in Rivers State.

This means LP won more than 12 States (13 States or perhaps more) and APC won less than 12 States (11 States or perhaps less). With this result, I begin to wonder if there are other States with this kind of glaring discrepancies.

---

Caveat:
Whether the results from IREV is authentic or not is a matter for another discuss. My focus was just to use the results I saw on the IREV Portal.

PODATTI is not an ffk, keyamo or bayo that talks anyhow and anyway.
When they said we won the election and we will prove it. They were not joking

States like rivers, akwaibom, bauchi, jos , imo, ekiti, benue, nasarawa, lagos and more are states where LP votes were either suppressed or outrightly stolen and added to the yakubu select.

We are not so bothered because we know the authentic winner of the election will get his mandate back.

There are many ways to catch a thief. That is why PODATTI took them in ways they could not believe.

It is not a mistake that the riggers forgot to rig abuja. Somethings are divine. You just can't explain why.

Have you tried Lagos, Nasarawa and maybe plateau state?

There is no how, not any possibility of APC winning in Rivers state. My Rivers people are more enlightened to have resorted to voting grandpa

Massiveglory:
States like rivers, akwaibom, bauchi, jos , nasarawa, lagos and more are states where LP votes were either suppressed or outrightly stolen and added to the yakubu select.

We are so bothered because we know the authentic winner of the election will get his mandate back.

It is not a mistake that the riggers forgot to rig abuja.

especially those Kaduna, Nasarawa, bauchi etc

I read they couldn't rig FCT (even though they tried to delay the results) because it was beyond them
Everyone knows who they voted for

More context

OKOATA:
Oga it was impossible for him to rig Abuja, how would he have rigged it anyways, is it with thugs and criminality in the heart of Abj? BAT assumed Buhari being APC will make him to authomatically win AbJ or he thought since he's the same party with bubu so he must help him out. You can't rig in ABj where you have the sitting president, even Bubu had only 36% in 2015 in FCT.

Massiveglory:
States like rivers, akwaibom, bauchi, jos , nasarawa, lagos and more are states where LP votes were either suppressed or outrightly stolen and added to the yakubu select.

We are so bothered because we know the authentic winner of the election will get his mandate back.

It is not a mistake that the riggers forgot to rig abuja.

Are you of the opinion that the Yakubus and fellow criminals intentionally decided not to rig Abuja? What's the plan?

Obinoscopy:
Recall I had perform an analysis of the presidential results on the IREV portal and came to the conclusion that APC won based on the results on IREV. See link to the thread here: https://www.nairaland.com/7626424/inec-result-analysis-based-samples

However I noticed some discrepancies in the result for Rivers State and decided to probe further. Again I used simple random sampling and multistage sampling to ensure that every polling unit had equal chance of being selected. I used a sample size of 198. I got the sample size using the formula:

Sample Size = S/(1+S/N)
Where S = z²*p*(1-p)/e²

And where z is the z-score which is 1.96 for a 95% confidence level
p is the population proportion of those who voted in Rivers State which is 15.6%
e is the margin of error which we take as 5%
N is the population size (total number of polling units in Rivers State) which is 6866.

The result is mind boggling.

RESULT
So after collating the results sheets from randomly selected 198 polling units, APC got a total of 4637 votes, LP got 8129 votes, NNPP got 47 votes and PDP got 3578 votes. So LP (and not APC as we were meant to believe) got the majority of votes followed by APC, then PDP and finally NNPP. Infact LP got more than 50% of the vote such that if you combine APC and PDP votes its still less than LP’s votes. This corroborates Peter Obi claim that he got 50% of the votes in Rivers State.

This means LP won more than 12 States (13 States or perhaps more) and APC won less than 12 States (11 States or perhaps less). With this result, I begin to wonder if there are other States with this kind of glaring discrepancies.

Bursted!!!!
Samples have already been determined apriori, so claims that you used a random sample is a lie, you know that.

If you understand statistics so well as you claimed, you will understand that what you just generated is an estimate not the accurate figure.

It's also important to get a representative sample rather than get a sample that is skewed so that your analysis can follow a normal distribution. Else, what you just generated will have standard deviation greater than zero, skewness greater than zero, and kurtosis less than 3 or greater than 3.

I will like to ask the confidence interval for this your result?

What is the standard error?

It is an estimate and we cannot say for sure how accurate your estimate is. I believe your data is skewed to places where peter obi got majority of his votes.

Mjshexy:
Are you of the opinion that the Yakubus and fellow criminals intentionally decided not to rig Abuja? What's the plan?

It is beyond human calculations.. It was beyond their powers.

Massiveglory:
States like rivers, akwaibom, bauchi, jos , nasarawa, lagos and more are states where LP votes were either suppressed or outrightly stolen and added to the yakubu select.

We are so bothered because we know the authentic winner of the election will get his mandate back.

It is not a mistake that the riggers forgot to rig abuja.

U all ovèrràté Obi too much.
What APC and PDP's votes that were supressed in South East and added to Obi?
Should we talk about that?

Op. Plateau not Jos

JagabanBorgu:
U all ovèrràté Obi too much.
What APC and PDP's votes that were supressed in South East and added to Obi?
Should we talk about that?

and you don't have any proof, as usual

JagabanBorgu:
U all ovèrràté Obi too much.
What APC and PDP's votes that were supressed in South East and added to Obi?
Should we talk about that?

Bring out your evidence. Do your work.

Your result from the analysis is within tolerable limit and this is a pointer to what Peter Obi is confidently fighting for.

JoshTim:
If you understand statistics so well as you claimed, you will understand that what you just generated is an estimate not the accurate figure.


It's also important to get a representative sample rather than get a sample that is skewed so that your analysis can follow a normal distribution. Else, what you just generated will have standard deviation greater than zero, skewness greater than zero, and curtosis less than 3 or greater than 3.

I will like to ask the confidence interval for this your result?

He is an Eluu P supporter, whatever will make the mób feel good is a welcome development.

INEC MAGIC really happen in most of the state on That 25th of february.

They just dont want igbo to rule.

Massiveglory:
It is beyond human analogy. It was beyond their powers.

And this will be their greatest downfall

Massiveglory:
Bring out your evidence. Do your work.

Do u have d evidence for the states like Bauchi, Plateau, Nasarawa, Lagos, Akwaibom etc that u mentioned?
Bring ur proof and I will flood u with proofs.

JagabanBorgu:
U all ovèrràté Obi too much.
What APC and PDP's votes that were supressed in South East and added to Obi?
Should we talk about that?

If you are not full, lazy and uneducated you would have applied same formula here to create your own acceptable result from any of the states you are doubting

JagabanBorgu:
He is an Eluu P supporter, whatever will make the mób feel good is a welcome development.

To massage the ego of eluppppo supporters popularly referred to as the "obidients"

There is nothing new about your findings.

According to Mark Essien's result collations, Rivers stands out as
a large proportion of the manual result does not tally with the BVAS and IREV.

But this doesn't equally apply to other states..
Yes there are some irregularities here and there but they don't change the margin much.

Remember, the requirement is not the number of states won but the total number of votes.

JoshTim:
If you understand statistics so well as you claimed, you will understand that what you just generated is an estimate not the accurate figure.

Statistics is all about estimate bro. I never said my results are 100% accurate. But I'm 95% confident in my estimates.

It's also important to get a representative sample rather than get a sample that is skewed so that your analysis can follow a normal distribution. Else, what you just generated will have standard deviation greater than zero, skewness greater than zero, and curtosis less than 3 or greater than 3.

My sample is a representative sample because I made sure all 23 LGAs were sampled. Also the PUs from each of the LGA samples were in the exact proportion of the PUs in the actual LGAs. So the issue of skewness or kurtosis does not arise here.

I will like to ask the confidence interval for this your result?

95%

greatiyk4u:
If you are not full, lazy and uneducated you would have applied same formula here to create your own acceptable result from any of the states you are doubting

Did u apply the formula to Akwaibom, Plateau, Bauchi, Nasarawa, Lagos etc that u are mentioning?
A group of duIIards forming inteIIigeñt because of chèàp data.

Obinoscopy:
Statistics is all about estimate bro. I never said my results are 100% accurate. But I'm 95% confident in my estimates.

My sample is a representative sample because I made sure all 23 LGAs were sampled. Also the PUs from each of the LGA samples were in the exact proportion of the PUs in the actual LGAs. So the issue of skewness or kurtosis does not arise here.

95%

So 5% is the margin of error.

Why not carry out another research and use another sample to test rather than assume your estimate is accurate

Felabrity:
you don't need to hurl nsults at someone to prove a point, only illiterates do that in public

Be civil for once in your life

LOL.
U just did same thing u thiñk u are crîtîcîziñg, you obviously Iàck civility, chèàp data is d reason many of u come online.
Bring proofs to defend the statement that Obi's votes were supressed in Nasarawa, Plateau, Bauchi, Lagos, Akwa Ibom etc.

JoshTim:
So 5% is the margin of error.

Why not carry out another research and use another sample to test rather than assume your estimate is accurate

I've done mine. And I'm 95% confident. Meaning if you repeat this research 100 times, you will get something similar to my result 95 times. Scientist like Carl Friedrich Gauss have demonstrated this already. But if you are still in doubt, perhaps you can do yours and tell me what you got.

JoshTim:
To massage the ego of eluppppo supporters popularly referred to as the "obidients"

Just tell them what they want to hear, they will be happy, say what they don't want to hear, they will start talking about proofs.

These are the illegality perpetuated and INEC foist on a nation.

Obinoscopy:
I've done mine. And I'm 95% confident. Meaning if you repeat this research 100 times, you will get something similar to my result 95 times. Scientist like Carl Friedrich Gauss have demonstrated this already. But if you are still in doubt, perhaps you can do yours and tell me what you got.

Oh boy, you have to admit it that the samples you used are skewed to favour Obi. If e sure for you, use another sample set and run the test, result will shock you your self.

If i begin to analyse your results and methods, you will be amased by the standard error in your result. Come alive, stop sleeping.

Massiveglory:
States like rivers, akwaibom, bauchi, jos , nasarawa, lagos and more are states where LP votes were either suppressed or outrightly stolen and added to the yakubu select.

We are not so bothered because we know the authentic winner of the election will get his mandate back.

It is not a mistake that the riggers forgot to rig abuja.

They didn't fgt it was just difficult to
Votes where clearly suppressed in Abuja as well my polling results tell me so

JagabanBorgu:
Just tell them what they want to hear, they will be happy, say what they don't want to hear, they will start talking about proofs.