Even before now, I have already written about Rivers State here (https://www.nairaland.com/7590958/whatever-happened-rivers-state-wike).

My belief is that Wike wanted to prove a point to Atiku, which had little to do with APC. Tinubu just happened to be a beneficiary of whatever happened in Rivers State.

Elections in Rivers State in 2015 and 2019 have always been bloody and churn out strange results in millions for PDP.

This was the only one in recent times that was not bloody and even the strange results from there were not in millions this time.

Even if you subtract Rivers State result from Tinubu and add it to Peter Obi, he will still sit comfortably in 3rd position, so nothing really to worry about.

I hope those who doubted your results in the first thread will also doubt this one. Ditto for those who accepted your result in the first thread

Let the tribunal sitting be broadcast live for the whole world to see just like the Oputa panel. It's going to be an interesting siting at the tribunal.

JagabanBorgu:

U all ovèrràté Obi too much.
What APC and PDP's votes that were supressed in South East and added to Obi?
Should we talk about that?

What are you waiting for? A keg of palm wine? A visa?


Obi is coming...

[color=#000099][/color]

ivolt:
There is nothing new about your findings.

According to Mark Essien's result collations, Rivers stands out as
a large proportion of the manual result does not tally with the BVAS and IREV.

But this doesn't equally apply to other states..
Yes there are some irregularities here and there but they don't change the margin much.

Remember, the requirement is not the number of states won but the total number of votes.

Bro for a PDP chieftain to say that Obi won Lagos State with about 900 thousand votes but it was slashed to 500 thousand, do you think they were lying?
For Peter Obi that I know to openly say that he won the election, he must have countable evidence. Unluckily for him INEC is not helping matter, but I know he has provisions for that.
I will just tell you to wait and watch the person of Peter Obi, in this election tribunal.

JagabanBorgu:

LOL.
U just did same thing u thiñk u are crîtîcîziñg, I obviously Iàck civility, chèàp data is d reason many of u come online.
Bring proofs to defend the statement that Obi's votes were supressed in Nasarawa, Plateau, Bauchi, Lagos, Akwa Ibom etc.

yes it's cheap data, infact I am using free browser

But do me a favor? Try to go a day on nairaland without hurling insults at anyone

You can always have a conversation without any derogatory words

Be civil

It will help your every day life

JoshTim:


Oh boy, you have to admit it that the samples you used are skewed to favour Obi. If e sure for you, use another sample set and run the regression, result will shock you your self.

If i begin to analyse your results and methods, you will be amased by the standard error in your result. Come alive, stop sleeping.

Stop the grammatical gymnastics and use your senses to rebuff his results. You can consult the IREV portal using any sample you so desire to drive home your point.

LadyExcellency:


Stop the grammatical gymnastics and use your senses to rebuff his results. You can consult the IREV portal using any sample you so desire to drive home your point.

Shut up,..there are biases in his analysis.

JoshTim:

Bursted!!!!
Samples have already been determined apriori, so claims that you used a random sample is a lie, you know that.

If you understand statistics so well as you claimed, you will understand that what you just generated is an estimate not the accurate figure.

It's also important to get a representative sample rather than get a sample that is skewed so that your analysis can follow a normal distribution. Else, what you just generated will have standard deviation greater than zero, skewness greater than zero, and kurtosis less than 3 or greater than 3.

I will like to ask the confidence interval for this your result?

What is the standard error?

It is an estimate and we cannot say for sure how accurate your estimate is. I believe your data is skewed to places where peter obi got majority of his votes.

Go nd carry out the calculation yourself from IREV
The results are there
I have done mine for rivers based on clear sheets
LP govt over 250k votes
APC didn't get upto 150k
I wondered how INEC announced a result and uploaded something else

Wike just deliberately set APC up
Let's watch and see

JoshTim:


Oh boy, you have to admit it that the samples you used are skewed to favour Obi. If e sure for you, use another sample set and run the regression, result will shock you your self.

If i begin to analyse your results and methods, you will be amased by the standard error in your result. Come alive, stop sleeping.

Regression ke? Bro do you know what you are saying?

My sample wasn't skewed to favour anyone. Like I said earlier, I used simple random sampling. I generated random numbers using excel. This means every polling units had equal chance of being selected. I really hope you understand Statistics.

Massiveglory:
States like rivers, akwaibom, bauchi, jos , nasarawa, lagos and more are states where LP votes were either suppressed or outrightly stolen and added to the yakubu select.

We are not so bothered because we know the authentic winner of the election will get his mandate back.

There are many ways to catch a thief. That is why PODATTI took them in ways they could not believe.

It is not a mistake that the riggers forgot to rig abuja.

They didn't forget, from their calculations they were sure they will get the 25% in FCT. Secondly secondly no APC governor in Abuja and they federal might weren't really in support of the drug lord.

There's no rule or law anywhere that disallows anyone from delighting himself in delusion of grandeur or finding the occasion to relieve himself of pent-up bitterness and anger.

Mjshexy:
Have you tried Lagos, Nasarawa and maybe plateau state?

strong LP states.

JagabanBorgu:

U all ovèrràté Obi too much.
What APC and PDP's votes that were supressed in South East and added to Obi?
Should we talk about that?

Thats what pple complained about....let it all be reviewed...if any part was rigged for LP...we will see it....
.. instead..inec ddnt want the world to see their yansh and quickly declared winner...

Obinoscopy:
Recall I had perform an analysis of the presidential results on the IREV portal and came to the conclusion that APC won based on the results on IREV. See link to the thread here: https://www.nairaland.com/7626424/inec-result-analysis-based-samples

However I noticed some discrepancies in the result for Rivers State and decided to probe further. Again I used simple random sampling and multistage sampling to ensure that every polling unit had equal chance of being selected. I used a sample size of 198. I got the sample size using the formula:

Sample Size = S/(1+S/N)
Where S = z²*p*(1-p)/e²

And where z is the z-score which is 1.96 for a 95% confidence level
p is the population proportion of those who voted in Rivers State which is 15.6%
e is the margin of error which we take as 5%
N is the population size (total number of polling units in Rivers State) which is 6866.

The result is mind boggling.

RESULT
So after collating the results sheets from randomly selected 198 polling units, APC got a total of 4637 votes, LP got 8129 votes, NNPP got 47 votes and PDP got 3578 votes. So LP (and not APC as we were meant to believe) got the majority of votes followed by APC, then PDP and finally NNPP. Infact LP got more than 50% of the vote such that if you combine APC and PDP votes its still less than LP’s votes. This corroborates Peter Obi claim that he got 50% of the votes in Rivers State.

This means LP won more than 12 States (13 States or perhaps more) and APC won less than 12 States (11 States or perhaps less). With this result, I begin to wonder if there are other States with this kind of glaring discrepancies.

---

Caveat:
Whether the results from IREV is authentic or not is a matter for another discuss. My focus was just to use the results I saw on the IREV Portal.

Using a sampling when you have the whole population will give you a biased results.
Those are some of the limitations of using sampling data.
I can bet if you are to get the Rsquare of this result, it should be less than 0.4

JagabanBorgu:

U all ovèrràté Obi too much.
What APC and PDP's votes that were supressed in South East and added to Obi?
Should we talk about that?

Isn't this enough reasons for other parties to take LP to court to disregard the results in that region?

Why is the APC crying that LP is going to court? If the votes in the East was stolen, then, APC Should be happy that LP is going to court

p is the population proportion of those who voted in Rivers State which is 15.6%

DOA. 15% could have excluded the whole Kalabari that delivered for APC.

Obinoscopy:
Regression ke? Bro do you know what you are saying?

My sample wasn't skewed to favour anyone. Like I said earlier, I used simple random sampling. I generated random numbers using excel. This means every polling units had equal chance of being selected. I really hope you understand Statistics.

Bro, i am telling you what you did is a lie. It's quite sad to realise you lie as pertaining to selecting the samples randomly using Microsoft excel...such pettiness, i don't tolerate.

Freebills12:
[color=#000099][/color]

Bro for a PDP chieftain to say that Obi won Lagos State with about 900 thousand votes but it was slashed to 500 thousand, do you think they were lying?
For Peter Obi that I know to openly say that he won the election, he must have countable evidence. Unluckily for him INEC is not helping matter, but I know he has provisions for that.
I will just tell you to wait and watch the person of Peter Obi, in this election tribunal.

Yes, the PDP man was definitely lying just like any other politician.
If you observe Atiku and PDP's petition's move, they have been following LP and not
leading as the supposed party that came second. PDP's strategy is to use Obi to gain power.

The figure the man called is statistically impossible given the number of accredited voters in Lagos.

Don't just listen to people talk, you should check out the figures yourself as they in the public domain.
But as you said, let us wait for the tribunal where only facts and evidence matters.

Wike was wike in Rivers.

When he was declaring 1.7 million votes in 2015 for PDP, you PDP apologists chanting LP today believed it was the best election. I have maintained that rivers state election was distorted by wike pdp style to prove a point. Rivers was a peculiar state distorted by PDP wike for APC.

Emeraldicon:


They didn't forget, from their calculations they were sure they will get the 25% in FCT. Secondly secondly no APC governor in Abuja and they federal might weren't really in support of the drug lord.

Uhn?


How Obi resorted to drug money to fund campaign in 2019

BY

VICTOR FOLA

12 NOVEMBER 2022


The Labour Party presidential candidate, Peter Obi has had reports linking him to some drug dealers in South Africa resurfaced on the internet as his integrity is once again under intense scrutiny.

It will be recalled that running on the platform of the Peoples Democratic Party in 2019 as a running mate to former vice-president and PDP’s standard bearer, Atiku Abubakar, allegations of Obi hobnobbing with drug dealers in South Africa broke the internet.

Ex-APC spokesperson, Yekini Nabena accused the former Anambra State governor of resorting to drug dealers money to fund his presidential campaign with Atiku.

He revealed that such was not the first time Obi was having a relation with drug dealers as during Obi’s undergraduate days at the University of Nigeria, he was involved indirectly and directly with drug dealers.

He said, “Several sources have revealed how the PDP and Atiku/Obi can no longer run big rallies for lack of funding but had to contact some drug dealers in South Africa for help.”

“Those who knew Peter Obi will attest to the fact that he has been accused of involving in drug dealing directly or indirectly since his days as an undergraduate at the University of Nigeria.

“Obi should explain his relationship with former Military Administrator, Governor Ibim Princewill and Col. Ernest Kizito Attah of Cross River state.”

Nebena noted how the former governor collected N470million as security vote and yet Anambra State was among the states that were highly insecure in the country in his tenure.

He said, “Given the level of insecurity in Anambra state , ‘Saint’ Peter Obi should explain how he expended his security vote since it is on record that he collected over N470 million per month as security vote (N220 million from Local Government and N250 million Naira from the state FAAC accounts).”

Another accusation that brings to question the integrity of the Labour Party presidential candidate was unfurled by Nabena when he noted that Obi’s profession for Catholicism was for nothing but political gains.

He said, “Just as Peter Obi professes his Catholicism for political expediency, we ask him to summon the moral courage and explain to Catholic faithful his relationship with the Olumba Olumba Obu (OOO) sect where his wife is a known member.”

Obinoscopy:
Recall I had perform an analysis of the presidential results on the IREV portal and came to the conclusion that APC won based on the results on IREV. See link to the thread here: https://www.nairaland.com/7626424/inec-result-analysis-based-samples

However I noticed some discrepancies in the result for Rivers State and decided to probe further. Again I used simple random sampling and multistage sampling to ensure that every polling unit had equal chance of being selected. I used a sample size of 198. I got the sample size using the formula:

Sample Size = S/(1+S/N)
Where S = z²*p*(1-p)/e²

And where z is the z-score which is 1.96 for a 95% confidence level
p is the population proportion of those who voted in Rivers State which is 15.6%
e is the margin of error which we take as 5%
N is the population size (total number of polling units in Rivers State) which is 6866.

The result is mind boggling.

RESULT
So after collating the results sheets from randomly selected 198 polling units, APC got a total of 4637 votes, LP got 8129 votes, NNPP got 47 votes and PDP got 3578 votes. So LP (and not APC as we were meant to believe) got the majority of votes followed by APC, then PDP and finally NNPP. Infact LP got more than 50% of the vote such that if you combine APC and PDP votes its still less than LP’s votes. This corroborates Peter Obi claim that he got 50% of the votes in Rivers State.

This means LP won more than 12 States (13 States or perhaps more) and APC won less than 12 States (11 States or perhaps less). With this result, I begin to wonder if there are other States with this kind of glaring discrepancies.

---

Caveat:
Whether the results from IREV is authentic or not is a matter for another discuss. My focus was just to use the results I saw on the IREV Portal.

Help us analyse Anambra and Enugu

I wish OBI luck on his quest to retrieve a stolen mandate.

That being said, Yoruba or Igbo apc or lp… the last presidential election was hugely unfair and rigged by all parties.

Kwankwaso rigged kano
OBI rigged the east
Bola rigged west and
Wike rigged south.

Loser

The people always knew this was the case

JagabanBorgu:

U all ovèrràté Obi too much.
What APC and PDP's votes that were supressed in South East and added to Obi?
Should we talk about that?

Any evidence?

Obinoscopy:
Recall I had perform an analysis of the presidential results on the IREV portal and came to the conclusion that APC won based on the results on IREV. See link to the thread here: https://www.nairaland.com/7626424/inec-result-analysis-based-samples

However I noticed some discrepancies in the result for Rivers State and decided to probe further. Again I used simple random sampling and multistage sampling to ensure that every polling unit had equal chance of being selected. I used a sample size of 198. I got the sample size using the formula:

Sample Size = S/(1+S/N)
Where S = z²*p*(1-p)/e²

And where z is the z-score which is 1.96 for a 95% confidence level
p is the population proportion of those who voted in Rivers State which is 15.6%
e is the margin of error which we take as 5%
N is the population size (total number of polling units in Rivers State) which is 6866.

The result is mind boggling.

RESULT
So after collating the results sheets from randomly selected 198 polling units, APC got a total of 4637 votes, LP got 8129 votes, NNPP got 47 votes and PDP got 3578 votes. So LP (and not APC as we were meant to believe) got the majority of votes followed by APC, then PDP and finally NNPP. Infact LP got more than 50% of the vote such that if you combine APC and PDP votes its still less than LP’s votes. This corroborates Peter Obi claim that he got 50% of the votes in Rivers State.

This means LP won more than 12 States (13 States or perhaps more) and APC won less than 12 States (11 States or perhaps less). With this result, I begin to wonder if there are other States with this kind of glaring discrepancies.

---

Caveat:
Whether the results from IREV is authentic or not is a matter for another discuss. My focus was just to use the results I saw on the IREV Portal.

What manner of nonsense analysis is this. Everybody knows Rivers was massively rigged and Rivers was an anomaly. Even an APC chieftain tweeted that “ na wah oh we only asked Wike to help with 25%” and You want to extrapolate the mean from an outlier? Is that how they taught you?

Nonsense!!!

Massiveglory:


It is not a mistake that the riggers forgot to rig abuja.

If APC is determined to rig, they ll rig all states.
My take, Tinubu won the majority votes. Some states has numbers of two or more states in south south and south east.

JoshTim:

Bursted!!!!
Samples have already been determined apriori, so claims that you used a random sample is a lie, you know that.

If you understand statistics so well as you claimed, you will understand that what you just generated is an estimate not the accurate figure.

It's also important to get a representative sample rather than get a sample that is skewed so that your analysis can follow a normal distribution. Else, what you just generated will have standard deviation greater than zero, skewness greater than zero, and kurtosis less than 3 or greater than 3.

I will like to ask the confidence interval for this your result?

What is the standard error?

It is an estimate and we cannot say for sure how accurate your estimate is. I believe your data is skewed to places where peter obi got majority of his votes.

No mind that LP fellow

JoshTim:


Oh boy, you have to admit it that the samples you used are skewed to favour Obi. If e sure for you, use another sample set and run the test, result will shock you your self.

If i begin to analyse your results and methods, you will be amased by the standard error in your result. Come alive, stop sleeping.

y don't u use ur own sample and let see ur results

Obin+gos are special creatures, feed them with the lies they want to hear, and they will worship you till Jesus returns.

JagabanBorgu:

U all ovèrràté Obi too much.
What APC and PDP's votes that were supressed in South East and added to Obi?
Should we talk about that?

Yeah. If you feel you were cheated and you have the evidence come up with it let's talk about that.

I can believe everything you say but saying that Rivers results was not rigged makes me question all the results in the whole 37 states

South East was rigged too because ballot boxes and papers where not dispersed to some polling unite there by disenfranchising thousands of people. The election was totally rigged QED