JagabanBorgu:

If the election was free and fair, Obi wón't get 100k votes outside SE.

You mean Obi rigged in Lagos and Nasarawa
I thought he didnt have structure

JoshTim:


Oh boy, you have to admit it that the samples you used are skewed to favour Obi. If e sure for you, use another sample set and run the test, result will shock you your self.

If i begin to analyse your results and methods, you will be amased by the standard error in your result. Come alive, stop sleeping.

What is stoping you from testing your own. The background data is in public space.

It is against good conscience and reason that you are persistently fault what someone else has done without presenting a superior evidence of your own to support your nagging line of thought.

JoshTim:

Bursted!!!!
Samples have already been determined apriori, so claims that you used a random sample is a lie, you know that.

If you understand statistics so well as you claimed, you will understand that what you just generated is an estimate not the accurate figure.

It's also important to get a representative sample rather than get a sample that is skewed so that your analysis can follow a normal distribution. Else, what you just generated will have standard deviation greater than zero, skewness greater than zero, and kurtosis less than 3 or greater than 3.

I will like to ask the confidence interval for this your result?

What is the standard error?

It is an estimate and we cannot say for sure how accurate your estimate is. I believe your data is skewed to places where peter obi got majority of his votes.

Stop obscuring what is potentially the most brazen electoral heist in Nigeria's history! the 2 tribes that have seized the commonwealth of the so called One Nigeria know quite well they cannot compete in a level playing field, so they cheat,lie,manipulate their way to relevance always! The ''scoundrel that stole a precious crown is merely wearing a face cap''..........................Kudos to all Nigerians of goodwill standing for the truth, history will vindicate you as for those bearing false witness they will soon receive there due reward!

Obinoscopy:
Recall I had perform an analysis of the presidential results on the IREV portal and came to the conclusion that APC won based on the results on IREV. See link to the thread here: https://www.nairaland.com/7626424/inec-result-analysis-based-samples

However I noticed some discrepancies in the result for Rivers State and decided to probe further. Again I used simple random sampling and multistage sampling to ensure that every polling unit had equal chance of being selected. I used a sample size of 198. I got the sample size using the formula:

Sample Size = S/(1+S/N)
Where S = z²*p*(1-p)/e²

And where z is the z-score which is 1.96 for a 95% confidence level
p is the population proportion of those who voted in Rivers State which is 15.6%
e is the margin of error which we take as 5%
N is the population size (total number of polling units in Rivers State) which is 6866.

The result is mind boggling.

RESULT
So after collating the results sheets from randomly selected 198 polling units, APC got a total of 4637 votes, LP got 8129 votes, NNPP got 47 votes and PDP got 3578 votes. So LP (and not APC as we were meant to believe) got the majority of votes followed by APC, then PDP and finally NNPP. Infact LP got more than 50% of the vote such that if you combine APC and PDP votes its still less than LP’s votes. This corroborates Peter Obi claim that he got 50% of the votes in Rivers State.

This means LP won more than 12 States (13 States or perhaps more) and APC won less than 12 States (11 States or perhaps less). With this result, I begin to wonder if there are other States with this kind of glaring discrepancies.

---

Caveat:
Whether the results from IREV is authentic or not is a matter for another discuss. My focus was just to use the results I saw on the IREV Portal.

Another state you need to torchlight is Edo and Imo states. I still believe obi got more votes than what was allotted to him.

Kukutenla:

You mean Obi rigged in Lagos and Nasarawa
I thought he didnt have structure

Obi and his foot soldiers notoriously rigged the election to prove a point.
U were all preparing to say "they said..." "They told us..." Etc u rigged so hard ur riggîng still couldn't take u above 3rd.

JoshTim:

Bursted!!!!
Samples have already been determined apriori, so claims that you used a random sample is a lie, you know that.

If you understand statistics so well as you claimed, you will understand that what you just generated is an estimate not the accurate figure.

It's also important to get a representative sample rather than get a sample that is skewed so that your analysis can follow a normal distribution. Else, what you just generated will have standard deviation greater than zero, skewness greater than zero, and kurtosis less than 3 or greater than 3.

I will like to ask the confidence interval for this your result?

What is the standard error?

It is an estimate and we cannot say for sure how accurate your estimate is. I believe your data is skewed to places where peter obi got majority of his votes.

The entire rigging is from INEC. Anything drawn from the Irev itself is also a rigged data.

PJ123:


Point of correction, APC is not making noise for going to court. In fact they advise you to go to court and not street. Making inciting comments up and down is what's condemnable.

I'm not a party card holder of any political party in Nigeria. So, stop using the word 'you'. The last time I checked, the Labour Party where insulted for going to court and the first party to also hold protest was the APC in Abuja.

I stand in the part of truth, nothing more

Get your facts right

broadman20:





Kindly show us places in the east, south and north where APC Supporters were beaten up by thugs just like in Lagos where Labour party supporters were harassed and beaten.

You want to prèteñd u didn't see d news where a man was killed in Onitsha for celebrating APC's victory?
U didn't see d news where APC sûppôrters were kicked out of polling units in SE?
I know an lgb0 supporter who went to Anambra to vote and his kinsmen warned him that they don't want to see him and his friends at the polling unit.
He sent this particular message into our group.
U think ur atrócitîés are not known?

IfnobeGod20:

Why not just go and do yours and bring it here instead of using all your energy to castigate the guy. You even went extra miles to tell him he wasn't born when you'd started using data. Please do you know the guy or you're the one that gave birth to him? Nothing one no go see in this faceless forum.

I'm constrained to think "that guy" is just a jingle bell. Apologies to him.....

The background data is in public space, rather than do his own so we all can put it through public scrutiny, he has been whining and dancing around the whole thread like a scared virgin on seeing a big joystick.
It is ridiculous and against good conscience for any one to criticize another's statistical data persistently in a public forum without providing any evidence whatsoever to support his own claim(s)

Brown2012:

If you can prove it why not!

U saw this reply on a particular comment abi?
Prove that comment with evidence.

Beverlyjean:


No need arguing with u cos u can never get it... u don't have the capability

I doñ't have d capability of a bîgot Iike u lgb0s, that I know.

JagabanBorgu:

The last time I checked, it was u guys posting that "if a thief ask u to go to court, his brother is the judge".
U were all making this post because APC asked u guys to challenge their victory in court.
So how did u guys turn it in a split second that APC is cryîñg because u went to court?
Same APC that told u to go court?
Na Wa o.
I am not surprised because that's how u all turned Obi to messiah overnight.
Why should APC even take u to court?
Has APC told u guys they are not ready for court procession?

And that was how he won the major places, including Lagos and Abuja... It took APC over 10yrs to get upto 6m with plenty merger.
With less money, Obi surpassed it with a party he joined less than a year or thereabout. If you see a genius raising standards, celebrate him

stepaside2:

This is political naivety. SE on its own can't win the Presidency even with 100% of SE votes. The region needs to play the sort of politics that reaches out to other regions particularly in the North. This is what Tinubu and the SW realised more than 8 yrs ago and are now reaping from a change in strategy. Hitherto, the regional politics played by Awo in the 60s and 70s and that played from 1999 to 2015 did not help the SW. In politics, there is nothing like 'i am a saint'. No one is by the way. Learn to play the game.

You guys with short memory
OBJ was a southerner who ruled for eight years.
GEJ won the presidency without North backing him in 2011.
The SW ACN arm liased with the northern CPC especially to get pwr for themselves not because that's the only way to win pwr

JagabanBorgu:

Donald Trump lost an election and he accused Biden of riggîng, what happened to their elections?

In this, the party that declared as winner is also claiming that the elections were rigged.

Felabrity:
main opposition my axx

A Party that was resurrected in 9 months had 6 million votes with a main opposition party

Dey play

how many nass seats guber state did LP won... U guys are jokers LP is a regional party like APGA NNPP

The moment inec failed to upload the results from the PU to the IREV, that was when I knew some ish are about to go down. And f what any apc supporter thinks or say. Just know that endsars pt2 is loading. And while you and I will be feeling the impact directly, ur president select will be somewhere overseas chilling

JagabanBorgu:

Obi and his foot soldiers notoriously rigged the election to prove a point.
U were all preparing to say "they said..." "They told us..." Etc u rigged so hard ur riggîng still couldn't take u above 3rd.

How does this balderdash even make sense to you.
I even thought you had something reasonable to say.
From LP does not have structure to Obi rigged.

udeh3:


And that was how he won the major places, including Lagos and Abuja... It took APC over 10yrs to get upto 6m with plenty merger.
With less money, Obi surpassed it with a party he joined less than a year or thereabout. If you see a genius raising standards, celebrate him

You are wrong. The APC was founded in 2013, went to the presidential polls two years later and polled 15m plus votes. Do not distort facts to prove a pointless point.

OGHENAOGIE:
how many nass seats guber state did LP won... U guys are jokers LP is a regional party like APGA NNPP

yes, regional party that won atleast a state in over 4 zones

Continue living in delusion

Esinwaju:
You are wrong. The APC was founded in 2013, went to the presidential polls two years later and polled 15m plus votes. Do not distort facts to prove a pointless point.

The APC was a merger between ACN, ANPP, CPC and aggressive PDP members. The ACN faction was led by BAT, CPC by Buhari while PDP was by Atiku who once ran under ACN and got around 3m.

How can you talk about APC and forget the merger!

udeh3:


The APC was a merger between ACN, ANPP, CPC and aggressive PDP members. The ACN faction was led by BAT, CPC by Buhari while PDP was by Atiku who once ran under ACN and got around 3m.

How can you talk about APC and forget the merger!

Still does not negate the fact the APC as an entity did not come into existence until 2013. Whatever transpired before then is not relevant. Also, what was disguised as LP in the presidential election was actually the south and parts of the north central wing of the PDP.

ivolt:
There is nothing new about your findings.

According to Mark Essien's result collations, Rivers stands out as
a large proportion of the manual result does not tally with the BVAS and IREV.

But this doesn't equally apply to other states..
Yes there are some irregularities here and there but they don't change the margin much.

Remember, the requirement is not the number of states won but the total number of votes.

That irregularities is what he is fighting for, this is an intensional irregularities and manipulation. All those people that cause the irregularities must be sacked and prosecuted including the chairman, how can you spend about 400 billion naira on something and come and tell Nigeria that you failed, is the person that appointed you use there own money to pay you, or collective tax payers money, until all those that compromised our electoral system are sacked and prosecuted, Nigeria will continue to make noise and demand for justice.

Mjshexy:
Have you tried Lagos, Nasarawa and maybe plateau state?

Your point is valid

stepaside2:
I don't think many people doubt that PO won Rivers State. I for one believe so. It is glaring and I believe the courts will overturn what INEC announced. The issue is that LP needs to overcome a 2.6mln votes deficit with respect to APC's votes and a spread of 25% in about 6 more states. All the states that LP is disputing are states that he already has at least 25% of votes. Focusing on them can add a few votes here and there to the tally but can't give the required spread. That is the real issue.

Mr. Man, did you read the petition? He is disputing 21 states and out of the 21 states, he only won 3 of them. Did he win Adamawa, Kaduna, Borno, Bauchi too?

Obinoscopy:
Recall I had performed an analysis of the presidential results on the IREV portal and came to the conclusion that APC won based on the results on IREV. See link to the thread here: https://www.nairaland.com/7626424/inec-result-analysis-based-samples

However I noticed some discrepancies in the result for Rivers State and decided to probe further. Again I used simple random sampling and multistage sampling to ensure that every polling unit had equal chance of being selected. I used a sample size of 198. I got the sample size using the formula:

Sample Size = S/(1+S/N)
Where S = z²*p*(1-p)/e²

And where z is the z-score which is 1.96 for a 95% confidence level
p is the population proportion of those who voted in Rivers State which is 15.6%
e is the margin of error which we take as 5%
N is the population size (total number of polling units in Rivers State) which is 6866.

The result is mind boggling.

RESULT
So after collating the results sheets from randomly selected 198 polling units, APC got a total of 4637 votes, LP got 8129 votes, NNPP got 47 votes and PDP got 3578 votes. So LP (and not APC as we were meant to believe) got the majority of votes followed by APC, then PDP and finally NNPP. Infact LP got more than 50% of the vote such that if you combine APC and PDP votes its still less than LP’s votes. This corroborates Peter Obi claim that he got 50% of the votes in Rivers State.

This means LP won more than 12 States (13 States or perhaps more) and APC won less than 12 States (11 States or perhaps less). With this result, I begin to wonder if there are other States with this kind of glaring discrepancies.

---

Caveat:
Whether the results from IREV is authentic or not is a matter for another discuss. My focus was just to use the results I saw on the IREV Portal.

You're only being a coward, you took samples from altered results and you're here claiming rubbish. Search for actual PU results and make your analysis I believe you will find a different winner

Mjshexy:
Are you of the opinion that the Yakubus and fellow criminals intentionally decided not to rig Abuja? What's the plan?

Maybe it skipped their memory

JagabanBorgu:

You want to prèteñd u didn't see d news where a man was killed in Onitsha for celebrating APC's victory?
U didn't see d news where APC sûppôrters were kicked out of polling units in SE?
I know an lgb0 supporter who went to Anambra to vote and his kinsmen warned him that they don't want to see him and his friends at the polling unit.
He sent this particular message into our group.
U think ur atrócitîés are not known?

I only asked for evidence and gossips can never be an evidence even at the law courts.

I thought you people are the ones always asking people to show evidence?

Obinoscopy:
Recall I had performed an analysis of the presidential results on the IREV portal and came to the conclusion that APC won based on the results on IREV. See link to the thread here: https://www.nairaland.com/7626424/inec-result-analysis-based-samples

However I noticed some discrepancies in the result for Rivers State and decided to probe further. Again I used simple random sampling and multistage sampling to ensure that every polling unit had equal chance of being selected. I used a sample size of 198. I got the sample size using the formula:

Sample Size = S/(1+S/N)
Where S = z²*p*(1-p)/e²

And where z is the z-score which is 1.96 for a 95% confidence level
p is the population proportion of those who voted in Rivers State which is 15.6%
e is the margin of error which we take as 5%
N is the population size (total number of polling units in Rivers State) which is 6866.

The result is mind boggling.

RESULT
So after collating the results sheets from randomly selected 198 polling units, APC got a total of 4637 votes, LP got 8129 votes, NNPP got 47 votes and PDP got 3578 votes. So LP (and not APC as we were meant to believe) got the majority of votes followed by APC, then PDP and finally NNPP. Infact LP got more than 50% of the vote such that if you combine APC and PDP votes its still less than LP’s votes. This corroborates Peter Obi claim that he got 50% of the votes in Rivers State.

This means LP won more than 12 States (13 States or perhaps more) and APC won less than 12 States (11 States or perhaps less). With this result, I begin to wonder if there are other States with this kind of glaring discrepancies.

---

Caveat:
Whether the results from IREV is authentic or not is a matter for another discuss. My focus was just to use the results I saw on the IREV Portal.

It's very obvious that the results loaded up on to iRev were doctored,let labour ask for the paper results from INEC n compare it with the ones in their possession, that's where the abracadabra would be exposed.

JagabanBorgu:

U all ovèrràté Obi too much.
What APC and PDP's votes that were supressed in South East and added to Obi?
Should we talk about that?

show your facts if any please.

Deepthoughts:
show your facts if any please.

U should bring d facts that back d claims of d comment I replied.

broadman20:




I only asked for evidence and gossips can never be an evidence even at the law courts.

I thought you people are the ones always asking people to show evidence?

U Eluu P supporters are d ones who always ask for evidence but u never have evidence for ur own claims, this Iamè attitude of turning tables that u people have don't work with me ok