just2endowed:


I like statisticians like you

Thank you boss

Obinoscopy:
Recall I had perform an analysis of the presidential results on the IREV portal and came to the conclusion that APC won based on the results on IREV. See link to the thread here: https://www.nairaland.com/7626424/inec-result-analysis-based-samples

However I noticed some discrepancies in the result for Rivers State and decided to probe further. Again I used simple random sampling and multistage sampling to ensure that every polling unit had equal chance of being selected. I used a sample size of 198. I got the sample size using the formula:

Sample Size = S/(1+S/N)
Where S = z²*p*(1-p)/e²

And where z is the z-score which is 1.96 for a 95% confidence level
p is the population proportion of those who voted in Rivers State which is 15.6%
e is the margin of error which we take as 5%
N is the population size (total number of polling units in Rivers State) which is 6866.

The result is mind boggling.

RESULT
So after collating the results sheets from randomly selected 198 polling units, APC got a total of 4637 votes, LP got 8129 votes, NNPP got 47 votes and PDP got 3578 votes. So LP (and not APC as we were meant to believe) got the majority of votes followed by APC, then PDP and finally NNPP. Infact LP got more than 50% of the vote such that if you combine APC and PDP votes its still less than LP’s votes. This corroborates Peter Obi claim that he got 50% of the votes in Rivers State.

This means LP won more than 12 States (13 States or perhaps more) and APC won less than 12 States (11 States or perhaps less). With this result, I begin to wonder if there are other States with this kind of glaring discrepancies.

---

Caveat:
Whether the results from IREV is authentic or not is a matter for another discuss. My focus was just to use the results I saw on the IREV Portal.

You really try, I support everything that will make obedients feel good. This dose should last them for a week. Try to prepare another one that will take them for additional week e.g Lagos, Bornu or Kano.

udeh3:


Isn't this enough reasons for other parties to take LP to court to disregard the results in that region?

Why is the APC crying that LP is going to court? If the votes in the East was stolen, then, APC Should be happy that LP is going to court

Point of correction, APC is not making noise for going to court. In fact they advise you to go to court and not street. Making inciting comments up and down is what's condemnable.

SlayQueenSlayer:


Are you implying that the elections was rigged cross parties?

Of course that's the reality
Eluu P supporters don't want to agree that Obi rîggèd.

I suggest OP should pick a local Government at least, conduct the collation and let's tally it with what was announced, if not; this post might be misleading.

Plus; these polling units, are they different from those announced?

Akwai bom

greatiyk4u:


I can see your IQ level
Shalom

Only duIIards are quick to taIk about IQ, they doñ't know what it actually means, they think talking about IQ makes them intelligent.

JagabanBorgu:

U all ovèrràté Obi too much.
What APC and PDP's votes that were supressed in South East and added to Obi?
Should we talk about that?

Talk about it. That's the conversation we want you to bring up. Where is the prove? Stop being stupid.

Obinoscopy:
Recall I had perform an analysis of the presidential results on the IREV portal and came to the conclusion that APC won based on the results on IREV. See link to the thread here: https://www.nairaland.com/7626424/inec-result-analysis-based-samples

However I noticed some discrepancies in the result for Rivers State and decided to probe further. Again I used simple random sampling and multistage sampling to ensure that every polling unit had equal chance of being selected. I used a sample size of 198. I got the sample size using the formula:

Sample Size = S/(1+S/N)
Where S = z²*p*(1-p)/e²

And where z is the z-score which is 1.96 for a 95% confidence level
p is the population proportion of those who voted in Rivers State which is 15.6%
e is the margin of error which we take as 5%
N is the population size (total number of polling units in Rivers State) which is 6866.

The result is mind boggling.

RESULT
So after collating the results sheets from randomly selected 198 polling units, APC got a total of 4637 votes, LP got 8129 votes, NNPP got 47 votes and PDP got 3578 votes. So LP (and not APC as we were meant to believe) got the majority of votes followed by APC, then PDP and finally NNPP. Infact LP got more than 50% of the vote such that if you combine APC and PDP votes its still less than LP’s votes. This corroborates Peter Obi claim that he got 50% of the votes in Rivers State.

This means LP won more than 12 States (13 States or perhaps more) and APC won less than 12 States (11 States or perhaps less). With this result, I begin to wonder if there are other States with this kind of glaring discrepancies.

---

Caveat:
Whether the results from IREV is authentic or not is a matter for another discuss. My focus was just to use the results I saw on the IREV Portal.

I supported Tinubu in the elections and I'm 100% certain that Peter Linus Obi is a fraud but your analysis is spot on. Labour Party won Rivers state..

advanceDNA:


Complained?? Oga abeg... why are u afraid og review...i am not a supporter of anybody... i just want fairness for one in our elections...

Thats supposed to the essence of the IREV

Was it not Eluu P supporters complaining that announcement was taking too much time?
How comes u come out all of a sudden to say results were announced quickly?
U should be consistent with ur standpoint.

cktheluckyman:


You just confirmed that the election was rigged and thus should be cancelled.

thank you

Oga Kwankwaso of NNPP rigged election for where Umar Ganduje dey? Awww let's be civil and politically correct.

It's like saying Rotimi Amaechi rigged the election of Rivers when we have Nyesom Wike??

egunna:
so ur claim now is that tinubu did not win fct abi?day dreamer.buhari lost fct in 2019,yet,he was not only sworn in,he is rounding up his tenure.

How old are you? Try to get the constitution of your country so you don't display dullness in public.

You don't need to win FCT to be president. But you must get at least 25% in the FCT To be president. That is the constitution of the federal republic of Nigeria

JoshTim:

Bursted!!!!
Samples have already been determined apriori, so claims that you used a random sample is a lie, you know that.

If you understand statistics so well as you claimed, you will understand that what you just generated is an estimate not the accurate figure.

It's also important to get a representative sample rather than get a sample that is skewed so that your analysis can follow a normal distribution. Else, what you just generated will have standard deviation greater than zero, skewness greater than zero, and kurtosis less than 3 or greater than 3.

I will like to ask the confidence interval for this your result?

What is the standard error?

It is an estimate and we cannot say for sure how accurate your estimate is. I believe your data is skewed to places where peter obi got majority of his votes.

instead of using statistical terms to dislodge somebody, why don't you do your own and come out with an accurate results...

It is very very easy to criticize from afar...!!

This is what some people doesn't understand. The kind of rigging done was quite different because they knew they can't inflate votes like before again because of the use of BVAS, they now resort to votes suppression. That is, reducing party votes and add to theirs.
God punish devil.

The case is still in court, let's see who the real winner will be.

JagabanBorgu:

LOL.
U just did same thing u thiñk u are crîtîcîziñg, you obviously Iàck civility, chèàp data is d reason many of u come online.
Bring proofs to defend the statement that Obi's votes were supressed in Nasarawa, Plateau, Bauchi, Lagos, Akwa Ibom etc.

Rivers is what we are discussing today, how INEC intentionally allocate obi vote to Tinubu

JagabanBorgu:

Was it not Eluu P supporters complaining that announcement was taking too much time?
How comes u come out all of a sudden to say results were announced quickly?
U should be consistent with ur standpoint.

U dont have point...u tinubu supoorters talk very weridly....so lets asume it was as u said..that lp and pdp asked for result....so its their asking for result that caused inec not to do the right thing.....i dont care who wins...but i care that the person should win free and fair...

JoshTim:


Oh boy, you have to admit it that the samples you used are skewed to favour Obi. If e sure for you, use another sample set and run the test, result will shock you your self.

If i begin to analyse your results and methods, you will be amased by the standard error in your result. Come alive, stop sleeping.

Oga, do your own, at least prove him wrong.

system21:

Rivers is what we are discussing today, how INEC intentionally allocate obi vote to Tinubu

U should say this particular line to the guy I replied who mentioned those states, not me.

advanceDNA:



U dont have point...u tinubu supoorters talk very weridly....so lets asume it was as u said..that lp and pdp asked for result....so its their asking for result that caused inec not to do the right thing.....i dont care who wins...but i care that the person should win free and fair...

U are somewhere believing INEC didn't do the right thing, because the càndidàte u sûppórted lost, if he won, u will clap for INEC for doing the "rîght thing".
Bear ur loss.

Mjshexy:
Have you tried Lagos, Nasarawa and maybe plateau state?

If that’s your true foto on your profile ,we will bear beautiful kids together

JoshTim:


Bro, i am telling you what you did is a lie. It's quite sad to realise you lie as pertaining to selecting the samples randomly using Microsoft excel...such pettiness, i don't tolerate.

Them never born you since I started working with datas...

If you have been working with data like you just claimed, perhaps you would have realized there is no such word like "datas"

Give it up bro... nobody is into any competition with you

Slynation:
If you have been working with data like you just claimed, perhaps you would have realized there is no such word like "datas"

Give it up bro... nobody is into any competition with you

Chai...learn when elders are talking....it's okay sha.

Mjshexy:
Are you of the opinion that the Yakubus and fellow criminals intentionally decided not to rig Abuja? What's the plan?

Anywhere they have succeeded in their rigging, they have a seating governor collaborating with INEC officials, but in FCT no body could do it for them

JoshTim:


Chai...learn when elders are talking....it's okay sha.

Offcourse we learn everyday and I hope you learnt something new today...

Slynation:
Offcourse we learn everyday and I hope you learnt something new today...

Thank you. Nobody is an island.

[color=#000099][/color]

ivolt:

Yes, the PDP man was definitely lying just like any other politician.
If you observe Atiku and PDP's petition's move, they have been following LP and not
leading as the supposed party that came second. PDP's strategy is to use Obi to gain power.

The figure the man called is statistically impossible given the number of accredited voters in Lagos.

Don't just listen to people talk, you should check out the figures yourself as they in the public domain.
But as you said, let us wait for the tribunal where only facts and evidence matters.

What he called is in line with total number of accredited votes in Lagos. You should be concerned why INEC is withholding Certify True Copy of the BVAS results. It would help a lot... I have seen videos of LP agents in Lagos State complaining at INEC office that the BVAS are not used to cross check the manual collated results from wards. I have seen videos where LP agents were beating at INEC office at Lagos State. CTC of BVAS results will help slot.

The North is the only place where their politicians can conveniently rig without trace. Majority of them aren't online like their southern brothers. That of the southern states are that pronounced due to how the residents embrace technology. However, how you'll easily know that the Northern States were rigged is after the election "IF THERE'S CELEBRATION OR NOT FOR THE WINNER". 2023 election just showed how both the north and south lost the election"NOT AGAINST APC BUT AGAINST INEC". Only INEC and their ad-hoc staffs who smiled to the bank actually celebrated their victory perhaps privately, while the whole nation went into mourning. For the first time after National election, the entire country was as quiet as a graveyard.

Shame to INEC and all supporters of this evil act.