₦airaland Forum

Nigeria’s currency appears to be decoupling from the price of oil, the nation’s main foreign-exchange earner.

After some initial volatility in the first half, the naira stabilized even as oil prices fell. Analysts from Deutsche Bank AG to Cardinal Stone expect the Nigerian currency to end the year near 1,556 per dollar — its average exchange rate in the first six months of 2025 after it slumped 41% in 2024. It traded around 1,530 on Tuesday, largely flat on a year-to-date basis.

The change in the naira’s fortunes can be attributed to its undervaluation, higher non-oil exports and lower import demand, said Ayo Salami, chief investment officer at Emerging Markets Investment Management Ltd. in London. The currency is trading below its fair value based on purchasing power parity, he said.

A steady naira will offer relief to businesses after its steep losses in the prior two years caused by the central bank’s decision to allow it to trade more freely against the dollar.

The naira’s stability has also been helped by a weakening US dollar, which is down more than 10% this year, and less dependency on imported refined products. Africa’s richest person, Aliko Dangote, commissioned a 650,000 barrels-per-day refinery that turned Nigeria into a net exporter of the refined products. Foreign-exchange reforms and investors’ scramble for investments outside the US have also benefited Nigerian assets, leading to increased dollar inflows.

A Bloomberg index for local bond performance is at a record high and has returned 19% this year, its best first-half performance since December 2020. The gauge for emerging-market local debt has returned 12% in the period. Stocks in the West African nation are up 18% this year.

“The NGN has become more correlated with global risk conditions,” said Samir Gadio, head of Africa strategy at Standard Chartered Plc. “Risk conditions have since improved materially; this has supported renewed portfolio flows into Nigeria debt even with oil prices currently below $70 per barrel.”

SmartPolician:
The naira’s stability has also been helped by a weakening US dollar, which is down more than 10% this year, and less dependency on imported refined products. Africa’s richest person, Aliko Dangote, commissioned a 650,000 barrels-per-day refinery that turned Nigeria into a net exporter of the refined products.

This has to be the most fascinating excerpt from this article. For a second, just imagine that Lagos State government sold the land where Dangote refinery was sited for $100 million! In a sane country, that land would be given to him free of charge because the man has the guts to do something both state and federal governments failed to do!

Goodvibes007:
Wow. For the 1st term ever, Nigeria is actually going forward and not backward. 1st time we are having a smart President.

seunmsg:
In all the news, your only problem is that Lagos state sold the land upon which Dangote refinery was built for $100m instead of gifting him outrightly. Well, is Dangote complaining to you? If Dangote ever comes to your village to set up a factory, you’re free to dash him all your land free of charge.

givedemwotowoto:
But for 8 whole years, you and your group praised Buhari and claimed he was moving Nigeria forward, only to backstab him when he left office. Now you’re claiming again that Nigeria is moving forward though Nigerians are at their highest level of hardship in modern history.

Isn’t this the classic definition of lies and propaganda?

SmartPolician:
Yes, that's because it's extremely absurd and preposterous!

ElSudani:
You and your candidates are free to run against Buhari if that is your wish. But at least give credit to whom credit is due. Tinubu is putting Nigeria on the right track.

givedemwotowoto:
But you said the same thing about Buhari for 8 years. Dude, take a moment to think about it, 8 years you were lying to the country. How can you be telling the truth now?

seunmsg:
It’s a long and painful journey to full economic recovery and growth but very surely, we are on the right track with the reforms initiated by the Tinubu administration.

A combination of significant reduction in payment on importation of PMS, increase in non-oil export and less wastage of forex to maintain a fixed exchange rate is the reason behind the stability. This is the right way to fix the economy without throwing the country into debt just to defend the naira. Kudos to President Tinubu and his team.

PRINCESSFCFANSs:
OK


let it reflect on the reduction of food price


and other products


for the sake of the masses



Princess Faith Chukwuamaka

givedemwotowoto:
But you said the same thing about Buhari for 8 years. Take a moment to think about it, for 8 years you were lying to the country. They were suffering and you were lying to them. Now they’re even suffering more, and you’re telling them the same thing all over again. How can you be telling the truth now?

SmartPolician:
The naira’s stability has also been helped by a weakening US dollar, which is down more than 10% this year, and less dependency on imported refined products. Africa’s richest person, Aliko Dangote, commissioned a 650,000 barrels-per-day refinery that turned Nigeria into a net exporter of the refined products.

This has to be the most fascinating excerpt from this article. For a second, just imagine that Lagos State government sold the land where Dangote refinery was sited for $100 million! In a sane country, that land would be given to him free of charge because the man has the guts to do something both state and federal governments failed to do!

DeLaRue:
Fantastic.

Please I beg Nigerians, as far as the economy is concerned, we are finally on the right track for the first time in several decades.

Don't let us throw this away by changing this government prematurely. By maintaining financial discipline, Mr Tinubu's government is doing all the right things.

It would be a lot easier to use the nearly $40 billion dollar foreign reserve to import subsidised rice on a massive scale and crash the price to even under N20,000 per bag, but that will be false economy. The sort of thing we had under Mr Jonathan. Instead, Mr Tinubu is not chasing popularity but doing now what will set Nigeria up for greatness in the future, even long after he has left office.

Who would have thought even 10 years ago, that Naira could one day NOT RESPOND NEGATIVELY when crude oil price falls.

That means our economy is finally decoupling from crude oil price.

Under Mr Tinubu, our non-oil exports have exploded. Internally generated revenues are breaking records quarter after quarter, and imports are thankfully reducing, which means we are producing more of what we need.

THIS IS ECONOMIC DIVERSIFICATION IN ACTION.

The same thing all Nigerian governments have been desiring since the early 1970's but could not achieve

I keep saying it, and I will repeat it again, Mr Tinubu is the best President Nigeria has had since independence nearly 65 years ago.

Economic development is phase by phase. A strong foundation phase, which has eluded this country for decades, is what Mr Tinubu's government is now putting in place. The next phase will be building on that foundation, and that may take another 3 or 5 years, during which things will still look tough. But we have to stick with it.

There is no other credible choice.

If we change the government in 2027, a new government will throw the current gains away and try to please people by introducing populist economic policies that will set us back another 20 years or more.

Let us stick with the current progression. There is no gain without pain. The good times will come.

seunmsg:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-08/nigerian-naira-seen-remaining-stable-despite-low-oil-prices?taid=686ccecb0f347d0001f8baa3&utm_campaign=trueanthem&utm_content=business&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter

seunmsg:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-08/nigerian-naira-seen-remaining-stable-despite-low-oil-prices?taid=686ccecb0f347d0001f8baa3&utm_campaign=trueanthem&utm_content=business&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter

2mch:
For food, na Nigerian market associations de do Nigerians. Not Tinubu.

seunmsg:
In all the news, your only problem is that Lagos state sold the land upon which Dangote refinery was built for $100m instead of gifting him outrightly. Well, is Dangote complaining to you? If Dangote ever comes to your village to set up a factory, you’re free to dash him all your land free of charge.

ebuk4real:
Lies...well nothing is impossible for BAT to get the validation he craves like mad. A failure is a failure