₦airaland Forum

Inspirer1:
👍
Good analysis

Tareq1105:
I like your permutations. It's to encourage your likes.

It'll be stupid of anyone to think that Atiku 6.8m votes is still available for him after leaving PDP to a party with no Gov or senator.

Remember PDP had 13 Govs to its fold then but today only 4 Govs are left. So even if the 4 Govs coalifusion with ADC, they'll still not be able to beat APC tinubu.

Don't also forget that kwakwaso and his kwakwassiya movement are on their way to APC. The implications of this is 2.2m votes in the cooler for APC in Kano State.

So, I commend you for your wishful permutations.

frog12:
na desperation. e don say am. he is not desperate for presidency. but e go take VP position

naptu2:
https://punchng.com/obi-set-to-join-adc-as-party-plans-convention/


Previous threads:

Peter Obi Will Make An Announcement In January
https://www.nairaland.com/8580896/peter-obi-make-announcement-january

aswani:
Interesting summary but you need to remove a good chunk of Peter Obí votes from SW and SS, say 80%, as they are gone thanks to Obidients tribalistic fervour and general nuisance factor on social media.

Atiku is also going with Amaechi anyway.

Chucks13:
Yes safe trip at least we will focus on ADC now as we dealt with LP and ruined it.

Any party he goes we will ruin it and kill the party we are not forgiving him now not later and not ever.

"We" are waiting patiently for him.

Hello losers a k a political normadics don't ask me who are "we" that word nor concern you.

Intrepid01:
Lol, he’s not intelligent at all. Himself and his advisers will regret it. Even if he joins Atiku and they defeat Tinubu, Atiku and his boys will sideline him in the government, that’s how Northerners do.
He will be made useless in the government but will be blamed for the failure of the government. His presence in a potential Atiku government will destroy his possible presidential ambition. If anyone tells him he’ll be President after being a VP then they are all delusional.

Lithiumite:
Your analysis is very funny and lame at best.....you refuse to take cognisance of the ever changing dynamics in politics.....obi leaving the LP has lost him about a 1/4 of his votes and support base,you saw it in edo and first hand in ANAMBRA,obi couldn't even muster any votes for the party...... Obi not being the flag bearer in 27 has lost him about half his votes in 23,then he teaming with atiku the perennial runner and most corruption labeled presidential candidate in the history of Nigeria,coupled with his hausa Fulani heritage,this alone would loose obi substantial support especially in the south and middle belt.

Apc on the other hand is growing ever stronger by the day Similar to pdp in 03 and 07......tinubu won that election with substantial votes from Lagos and Kano despite coming second he also won rivers,right now rivers and Kano are already aligning with him with votes and huge financial resources.....the opposition doesn't come anywhere close in terms of finance and structure and everything happening to them is a well calculated strategy by tinubu himself and need I remind you,naija politics is highly transactional and there is nothing atiku and obi combined can offer anyone that tinubu can't double.

givedemwotowoto:
Peter Obi to ADC. +6

Kwankwaso to APC +2

====================
Atiku + Peter Obi = 6.9 + 6.1 = 13 million votes ✔️
(winner)

Tinubu + Kwankwaso = 8.7 + 2.2 = 11 million votes 🚫
(second place)


Note: I decided not to add or subtract vote from anyone despite the following:

Tinubu failed woefully on economy and security so the “Lagos builder” rhetoric has expired, people have seen him for who he is. 70% of Tinubu’s votes in 2023 came from Buhari. With Buhari’s passing, those 5.5 million votes are expected to be split between mostly Kwankwaso, Atiku, and Tinubu.

Peter Obi on the other hand has gained respect from many. Despite the result of the 2023 election, he didn’t retire to tha background waiting for the next election, he engaged in philanthropy and went about building bridges across the country.

Atiku has managed to stay under the radar, preferring to do groundwork politics behind the scenes.

Kwankwaso has maintained his lane and stronghold.

Shettima has been somewhat missing in action.

ddippset:
If you were Atiku, would you go with Amaechi or Obi.

Answer this question let me estimate your IQ.

ddippset:
So tell me... What do you expect him to do?

If you were Obi what would you do?

Do "I no gree, I no gree" and contest..
Then split votes again with Atiku and let Tinubu have an easy run?
Then power returns to North in 2031?


Or take your chances with Atiku and get his support in return by 2031?
Remember I said "take your chances"


If you were Obi what would you do?


Answer this question let me know your IQ.

doncartel:
It’s action time for we Obidients. We now want to lecture Apc on what is called Politics 101.

franchasng:
Yes Obi is joining ADC formally soon.

We pray Atiku and his brethren keep to the agreements and terms to ensure this union births a truly new Nigeria of our dreams and not just to grab power like APC did in 2015 using lies and propaganda, which brought where we are today being referred to as "that disgraced country"

Mrexcell:
Only dumb people will be focusing only on ruining Obi's political career while forgetting about the larger nigerian population they are supposed to give good governance. Obi is already a well established self made man he is a multi billionaire and has absolutely nothing to loose if he doesn't become nigeria's president in future. He is not in politics for money or for self aggrandisement like ur tinibu he is in politics solely to serve humanity and not for self enrichment.

DeepSight:
+
Anyone who says this administration is doing well belongs to one or more of these categories -

1. Has been bought or paid off
2. Hates Nigeria
3. Is irredeemably and satanically sadistic
4. Is ignorant, mediocre and expects little
5. Is tribalist and makes judgements by tribe or religion.
6. Is cognitively dissonant
7. Ignores corruption and abuse of power, celebrates them
8. Hates the rule of law

JASONjnr:
If they support Peter Obi, it means they're reasonable and patriotic Nigerians? Lol....

Hypocrite!!!

ddippset:
So tell me... What do you expect him to do?

If you were Obi what would you do?

Do "I no gree, I no gree" and contest..
Then split votes again with Atiku and let Tinubu have an easy run?
Then power returns to North in 2031?


Or take your chances with Atiku and get his support in return by 2031?
Remember I said "take your chances"


If you were Obi what would you do?


Answer this question let me know your IQ.

Eriokanmi:
If Atiku refuses to support Obi to fly the flag, same way the party members supported buhari back then, I'd vote tinubu, a fellow southerner. I'll feel betrayed by obi. South must complete 8 years shangiliti

Tareq1105:
I like your permutations. It's to encourage your likes.

It'll be stupid of anyone to think that Atiku 6.8m votes is still available for him after leaving PDP to a party with no Gov or senator.

Remember PDP had 13 Govs to its fold then but today only 4 Govs are left. So even if the 4 Govs coalifusion with ADC, they'll still not be able to beat APC tinubu.

Don't also forget that kwakwaso and his kwakwassiya movement are on their way to APC. The implications of this is 2.2m votes in the cooler for APC in Kano State.

So, I commend you for your wishful permutations.

Lithiumite:
Your analysis is very funny and lame at best.....you refuse to take cognisance of the ever changing dynamics in politics.....obi leaving the LP has lost him about a 1/4 of his votes and support base,you saw it in edo and first hand in ANAMBRA,obi couldn't even muster any votes for the party...... Obi not being the flag bearer in 27 has lost him about half his votes in 23,then he teaming with atiku the perennial runner and most corruption labeled presidential candidate in the history of Nigeria,coupled with his hausa Fulani heritage,this alone would loose obi substantial support especially in the south and middle belt.

Apc on the other hand is growing ever stronger by the day Similar to pdp in 03 and 07......tinubu won that election with substantial votes from Lagos and Kano despite coming second he also won rivers,right now rivers and Kano are already aligning with him with votes and huge financial resources.....the opposition doesn't come anywhere close in terms of finance and structure and everything happening to them is a well calculated strategy by tinubu himself and need I remind you,naija politics is highly transactional and there is nothing atiku and obi combined can offer anyone that tinubu can't double.

aswani:
Interesting summary but you need to remove a good chunk of Peter Obí votes from SW and SS, say 80%, as they are gone thanks to Obidients tribalistic fervour and general nuisance factor on social media.

Atiku is also going with Amaechi anyway.

WhizdomXX:
Very poor analysis. Kwakwasos got 1.46 million and he changed it to 2.2.

Amumaigwe:
Cry me a river.

Lithiumite:
Your analysis is very funny and lame at best.....you refuse to take cognisance of the ever changing dynamics in politics.....obi leaving the LP has lost him about a 1/4 of his votes and support base,you saw it in edo and first hand in ANAMBRA,obi couldn't even muster any votes for the party...... Obi not being the flag bearer in 27 has lost him about half his votes in 23,then he teaming with atiku the perennial runner and most corruption labeled presidential candidate in the history of Nigeria,coupled with his hausa Fulani heritage,this alone would loose obi substantial support especially in the south and middle belt.

Apc on the other hand is growing ever stronger by the day Similar to pdp in 03 and 07......tinubu won that election with substantial votes from Lagos and Kano despite coming second he also won rivers,right now rivers and Kano are already aligning with him with votes and huge financial resources.....the opposition doesn't come anywhere close in terms of finance and structure and everything happening to them is a well calculated strategy by tinubu himself and need I remind you,naija politics is highly transactional and there is nothing atiku and obi combined can offer anyone that tinubu can't double.

DeepSight:
+
Where have you seen me say anything that suggests I am rooting for Obi. Why are you people so obsessed with that man? Why didn't you stop to think of I am an Atiku supporter for example?

JASONjnr:
Same way you accuse everyone supporting Tinubu to be a Yoruba.....

akpumping7720:
You are trusting Atiku to hand over power to Obi in 2031?
I think we need age verification before accessing nairaland

ddippset:
If you could only read and assimilate, you would understand that my post actually suggests that I don't trust Atiku.

That's why I said "take his chances"


So let me repeat perhaps you would read a little slower and understand a bit better;;

Obi has only two options;;

1. Contest for President with Tinubu and Atiku, thereby giving Tinubu a very easy ride and then wait till 2039 to have a chance again.
(12 years from 2027).

2. Contest as Atiku's running mate with an agreement that he will be supported to run for President in 2031.


These are basically the two options he has; If you were Obi, which would you take?

Answer and stop doing cho cho cho.

ddippset:
If you could only read and assimilate, you would understand that my post actually suggests that I don't trust Atiku.

That's why I said "take his chances"


So let me repeat perhaps you would read a little slower and understand a bit better;;

Obi has only two options;;

1. Contest for President with Tinubu and Atiku, thereby giving Tinubu a very easy ride and then wait till 2039 to have a chance again.
(12 years from 2027).

2. Contest as Atiku's running mate with an agreement that he will be supported to run for President in 2031.


These are basically the two options he has; If you were Obi, which would you take?

Answer and stop doing cho cho cho.