₦airaland Forum

By Peacock @Dawisu

How Tinubu Won and Lost the North

By Salihu Tanko Yakasai

The story of the 2023 presidential election cannot be told without the North. It was central to the emergence of Bola Ahmed Tinubu, not just in votes, but in trust, alliances, and calculated political risk taken by influential Northern actors at critical moments.

Before the primaries, Tinubu’s network in the North was deep and deliberate. He had strong ties with figures like Aliyu Wamakko and Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, alongside key APC governors such as Abdullahi Umar Ganduje, Nasir El-Rufai, and former Governor Abubakar Badaru. These were not ceremonial relationships - they translated into real political leverage.

At a time when resistance within the ruling party threatened his ambition, these Northern allies stood firm. They backed him through the primaries, even when it meant confronting entrenched interests, or the so-called cabal within the Presidential Villa. Northern governors went as far as meeting late President Muhammadu Buhari to demand clarity on succession. His neutral stance opened the door, and they walked Tinubu through it.

Then came the election season. Policies like the naira redesign, widely seen as an attempt to weaken Tinubu’s chances, were openly resisted by some of these same allies. Their support was not passive - it was active, visible, and costly.

Beyond politics, Tinubu also secured the backing of influential Muslim scholars. The Muslim-Muslim ticket became a rallying point. Clerics framed it as a matter of religious duty and mobilized support, even from the mimbar during Friday prayers.

By the time the votes were counted, the numbers told the story. Tinubu, a Southern candidate, drew the bulk of his strength from the North - 63%, compared to 36% from the South. The North invested in him, and delivered.

But what followed has been a different story.

There is now a growing sense among many of those same Northern allies that the relationship has not translated into inclusive governance. Complaints of exclusion and lack of consultation are widespread. Key figures who helped deliver victory now appear sidelined.

Nasir El-Rufai’s exclusion from the cabinet raised immediate questions. Abdullahi Ganduje was also passed over for executive office, later given the party chairmanship - a role many saw as compensation rather than strategy, and one he eventually exited. Developments involving Abubakar Malami have only deepened perceptions of political distancing and quiet retribution.

Even within government, there are signs of strain. Ministries are underfunded, with allocations falling far below approved budgets. The Minister of Health publicly stated he received just N38 million for capital projects out of a N200 billion proposal. Behind the scenes, some ministers are reportedly funding their roles from personal resources, while others appear better supported. It raises a simple question - what exactly are the priorities?

Religious backing is also shifting. Clerics who once campaigned vigorously are now more critical, especially on issues of trust and fairness. Concerns around INEC and the appointment of a perceived biased umpire have only heightened tensions, with some openly threatening to withdraw support.

A related dimension that is quietly reshaping sentiment in the North is the growing push of what many describe as a “Christian genocide” narrative. While insecurity remains a national crisis, there is increasing resentment in core Northern states where communities have borne some of the heaviest losses over the years. From banditry to insurgency, large swathes of the North have experienced sustained violence affecting predominantly Muslim populations. This has led to a perception that the framing of the crisis is selective and, at times, politically motivated. For many, it raises deeper questions about fairness in national discourse and reinforces a feeling of being misunderstood or deliberately misrepresented

In a region where perception and identity are tightly linked to political behavior, this narrative is gradually eroding goodwill and complicating the president’s standing among groups that once offered him strong support.

Beyond perception, the broader handling of insecurity has also come under serious scrutiny. Expectations were high that a government built on such a strong coalition would move decisively to restore order. Instead, many communities across the North continue to face persistent threats from banditry, kidnappings, and insurgent activity. The response has often appeared reactive rather than strategic, with limited coordination and little visible improvement in outcomes. For a region that invested heavily in Tinubu’s emergence, the inability to significantly curb insecurity has become one of the most tangible measures of disappointment.

On infrastructure, the contrast is hard to ignore. Many in the North point to slow progress on inherited projects and the absence of major new ones, while the South West, particularly Lagos, has seen approvals running into trillions. Apapa and Tin Can ports alone have attracted multiple funding rounds worth N4.5 trillion. Whether fully accurate or not, the perception of imbalance is taking root - and in politics, perception matters.

Appointments have further fueled this narrative. Critics argue that key positions are concentrated within a narrow circle, with many of the most strategic roles going to individuals from the president’s ethnic base. Even when appointees are drawn from Northern states like Kogi and Kwara, the pattern raises questions about whether geography is being used to mask preference.

Taken together, the message is clear. The North that mobilized, negotiated, and delivered is now reassessing its place.

So the real question is no longer how Tinubu won the North, but whether he is steadily losing it. Beyond those who have publicly distanced themselves, many others remain outwardly loyal while privately disillusioned.

In politics, winning is only the beginning. Coalitions must be managed, not assumed. In 2023, the North made Tinubu’s victory possible. As the next cycle approaches, whether that support holds - or collapses - will depend on whether those alliances are rebuilt or allowed to fade.

End!

Source

Background

Salihu Tanko Yakasai (Peacock @dawisu) was the special adviser on new media to Governor Abdullahi Umar Ganduje of Kano. Like his father Tanko Yakasai (who was Shagari's presidential liaison to the National Assembly), he is very outspoken. He doesn't hesitate to speak his mind. This has often gotten him into trouble (just like his father often got into trouble).


He annoyed some Kanawa because he defended his boss, Abdullahi Ganduje during the dollargate scandal.

He also annoyed some Kanawa because of his criticism and mocking of the former Emir of Kano, Muhammad Sanusi II, when the Emir had problems with Governor Ganduje.


He was suspended from office in October 2020 for criticising President Buhari over the End SARS protest.
Governor Ganduje Suspends Salihu Yakasai For Criticising Buhari Over #EndSARS

He was reinstated a few weeks later.

However, he was sacked in February 2021 and detained by the DSS for criticising President Buhari again and asking him to resign after some school children were kidnapped by bandits.
Ganduje Sacks Salihu Tanko Yakasai Over "Unguarded Comments"

Salihu Tanko-Yakasai: SSS Confirms The Arrest and Detention Of Ganduje's Ex-Aide

"Asking Buhari To Resign Is Not An Offence, Release Tanko-Yakasai" – Falana

His father said that his son was just beginning his journey and he stated that he was arrested 10 times. Salihu Tanko Yakasai then joked that he had 9 more arrests to go.

Some activists complained when he was listed as a speaker at the Soro Soke Summit in 2021
"Activists" Complain As Dawisu Is Listed As A Speaker At 'Soro Soke' Summit


Salihu Tanko Yakasai resigned from the APC on March 21, 2022.
Salihu Tanko Yakasai Dumps APC.

He once again called for President Buhari's resignation on March 29th, 2022 after an attack on a train on the Kaduna-Abuja Line.
Salihu Tanko Yakasai Calls For President Buhari To Resign

In May 2022 he declared his intention to run for the governorship of Kano on the platform of the PRP.
Salihu Tanko Yakasai (Dawisu) Declares Intention To Run For Governor Of Kano

Politics Without Bitterness As Ganduje And Dawisu's Convoys Greet Each Other.

And in August 2023 he returned to the APC. He said that the national chairman of the APC, Dr Ganduje, had invited him back to the APC to consolidate on the gains that he has made.

Salihu 'Dawisu' Tanko Yakasai Returns To APC In Kano

However, in recent months, especially after Ganduje was removed as APC chairman, he has become a big critic of the Bola Tinubu Administration. He claims that the Tinubu Administration only favours southerners and that the north should kick it out of office

South-West FEC Meeting: Salihu Yakasai Criticises Lopsided Projects Distribution


Jungle Justice: The Hypocrisy Of The Southern Nigerians By Salihu Tanko Yakasai


Appointments: Kogi and Kwara are Not Part Of The North - Yakassai

He even had a massive exchange with Bashir Ahmad (the former spokesman of President Buhari). He was questioning why Bashir supports a southern government and stating that President Tinubu only caters to the south and that he will lose the north.

(He often criticised President Buhari for not finishing his projects in the north. He said that a southern president would abandon the projects)

Salihu Tanko Yakasai Defects To ADC


Salihu Tanko Yakasai Visits Atiku Abubakar

A bad government should be rejected and voted out irrespective of whosoever is involved and not based on ethno-religo-regional sentiment agenda.

Nigeria should be better with each successive trajectory in democratic governance and not the gross retardation and bastardization being witnessed @present.

How many projects did buhari do in lagos the economic nerve center of Nigeria.....daura got more projects than Rivers or bayelsa or delta the epicenter of our commonwealth.

For the north,its all about power and control of the treasury.... you used this against gej and you are repeating same tactics.

Singling out the health sector capital vote challenge,under buhari that you would readily claim allocated accordingly tobthat sector, how much did the sector improve under him.

You are already making this into a north vs south battle for survival.

Below are the people that made Tinubu President:

Mallam El Rufai
Aisha Buhari
Muhammadu Buhari
Professor Mahmood Yakubu
Nyesom Wike

North, East, West and South should unite and kick out this Tinubu administration

Every man got his own theory, whether true or foolish.

With 32 governors behind him, it will be very hard to beat Tinubu. The governors and the LGA chairmen want the good times they are presently enjoying continue. The financial windfalls they are currently enjoying due to the ending of fuel subsidies and the floating of the Naira

The local governments are benefitting from direct allocstions, rather than through the state governments.

If Tinubu wants to win the North with a landslide, is if he can end banditry and the menace of killer herdsmen.

Lithiumite:
How many projects did buhari do in lagos the economic nerve center of Nigeria.....daura got more projects than Rivers or bayelsa or delta the epicenter of our commonwealth.

For the north,its all about power and control of the treasury.... you used this against gej and you are repeating same tactics.

Singling out the health sector capital vote challenge,under buhari that you would readily claim allocated accordingly tobthat sector, how much did the sector improve under him.

Are you saying that Ayédèrú jagaban of Borgu is a northerner, who used this APC strategy against Jonathan and ended 16 years of PDP prosperity

tinubu as I see it has achieved his life long ambition of being the president of Nigeria.

It's not hard and fast that he should be re-elected. His performances have be abysmal to be very generous. I advice he should do a Joe Biden by opting out from his second term ambition.

As for Salihu Tanko he should refrain from refering tinubu as a southern president. Is the South made of SW alone?

Moreover, didn't the north give him the larger votes 63% compared to south 37%?

I for one regard tinubu as a northern president.

When did SALIU TANKO YAKASSA become "THE NORTH" of 150 million people.


Every tom dick and harry will just come out and be speaking on behalf of the North.


As if Northerners are Zombies which I believe they are Not.


You people should come off the groundstanding and sensationalism

Have they sacked emperor Wike?

the fact that he even decided to turn back at the airport without going to the affected area has shown his true opinion about the north .he doesnt care about the north

Lithiumite:
How many projects did buhari do in lagos the economic nerve center of Nigeria.....daura got more projects than Rivers or bayelsa or delta the epicenter of our commonwealth.

For the north,its all about power and control of the treasury.... you used this against gej and you are repeating same tactics.

Singling out the health sector capital vote challenge,under buhari that you would readily claim allocated accordingly tobthat sector, how much did the sector improve under him.

You are already making this into a north vs south battle for survival.

Can you please tell a project that costs trillion of Naira in daura, Katsina or even North entirely during Buhari regime?

franchasng:
Below are the people that made Tinubu President:

Mallam El Rufai
Aisha Buhari
Muhammadu Buhari
Professor Mahmood Yakubu
Nyesom Wike

His defeat in the North started from the day he betrayed Elrufai. All those who deceived him to do away with Elrufai because of 2031, promising they can deliver the North, are now nowhere to be found. Where is his heir apparent, Ribadu? Lessons. They are now desperate to run unopposed because going through the ballot is apparently no longer a feasible option.

Tinubu only focus in Lagos.

The North will treat his f' up.

APC is afraid to be challenged. That simply tells their 12 years performance. They know on a level playing field, they will loose the election even with 36 governors and all state and federal legislatures and judiciary

Election rigging is possible As long as we continue to use ballot paper to vote, that's why they are against any technological approach to aid election.

Only God can help us

naptu2:
By Peacock @Dawisu



Source

The NADECO fraudster clearly used religion sentiment in the North
The Muslim Muslim ticket was the reason Obi started attending churches
But somehow, the NADECO fraudster supporters are blind to it and only see Obi own.

This was the same man that was feeding NADECO secrets to Abacha through chargoury
The same man that sold Abiola away.
But somehow, he is their hero today

P1PrinceKT:
Can you please tell a project that costs trillion of Naira in daura, Katsina or even North entirely during Buhari regime?

Lagos Calabar coaster road is what you are referring to, what about sokoto Lagos road too. Is the project mot rumning into trillion naira too?.

Everybody is feeling the heat 🤷🏿

franchasng:
Below are the people that made Tinubu President:

Mallam El Rufai
Aisha Buhari
Muhammadu Buhari
Professor Mahmood Yakubu
Nyesom Wike

Now its only one out of the 5 is with him..

Every time north this and that, what have they done with that powers

DERE ARE 19 GOVS + FCT IN D NORTH...

LAST BYE ELECTION SHOWS FCT IS ALREADY TAKEN BY APC...

APC CONTROLS 18 OF ALL 19 STATES WITH D LAST MAN STANDING ALREADY DESPERATELY BEGGING TO JOIN APC..

EVEN KWANKWASO" D GREAT" IS GETTING D BIGGEST SCARE OF HIS LIFE.. KANO TAKEN

naptu2:
By Peacock @Dawisu



Source

Very funny people.

Too many half truths in this article all in a bid shore up pointless sentiments.

1. The reason Tinubu went for a Muslim-Muslim ticket is that, for now, a Southern Muslim-Northern Christian presidential ticket will not fly in the North.
This is Politics 101 that any serious politician in Nigeria should know.

Same reason MKO's ticket was a Muslim-Muslim one.

2. El-Rufai’s exclusion from cabinet is a story that would be told some day.

3. Ganduje has been adequately compensated, and is still being compensated.
His removal as APC chairman was a political strategy. It was also to manage global perception of the administration. Same reason a Muslim Badaru was replaced with a christian as minister of defense to fix the 'christian killings' narrative.

4. Malami and Emefiele were never on Tinubu's side.
Plus, Malami was one of the biggest abusers of office and embezzler of funds in Buhari's regime.

Neutral people, and serious politicians know this.

5. The insecurity thing Northern elites used to poison people's mind towards GEJ will not work this time around. Everyone is wiser now.

6. There's no Northern gang up against Tinubu. He has also gained more grounds in the South and middle-belt.
Make una carry power of incumbency play.

Bookmark this article, if things stay as there are, Tinubu's victory in 2027 will be resounding that even the deaf will hear it from a mile.

P1PrinceKT:
Can you please tell a project that costs trillion of Naira in daura, Katsina or even North entirely during Buhari regime?

Keffi -akwanga-makurdi
Zungeru hydro electric
Ajaokuta-Kaduna-Kano (AKK) gas pipeline
Kano maradi rail
Oil exploration in Gombe (Kolmani oil fields)

No president has done more capital projects after President Shehu Shagari followed by President Buhari 📌💯🙌

Therefore, Tinubu must now channel 99% of Nigeria's income from oil to the north to win the north.

Spineless blackmail.

AMINDA:
His defeat in the North started from the day he betrayed Elrufai. All those who deceived him to do away with Elrufai because of 2031, promising they can deliver the North, are now nowhere to be found. Where is his heir apparent, Ribadu? Lessons. They are now desperate to run unopposed because going through the ballot is apparently no longer a feasible option.

Atleast he still got strong allies in the North. Please tell us the Strong Allies your Atiku has in the South that will make us vote him.

P1PrinceKT:
Can you please tell a project that costs trillion of Naira in daura, Katsina or even North entirely during Buhari regime?

Attempting to build a rail line to maradi,niger republic when you haven't linked maiduguri to the south......building an Air Force reference hospital in daura when there are far more established cities even in the north,transport university in daura for Christ sake when you could have just upgraded the transport institute in zaria .....these and many more while Lagos infrastructure was decaying.....Lagos airport wasn't upgraded,the seaports laid comatose,first mainland bridge remained decrepit while the 3rd mainland bridge continued to decay.....Lagos ibadan remained unfinished and sagamu ijebu ode never got a look in.

No dey bobo us...

Na the man Una go still vote for.

You opposition forces no serious

ONLINE DEY SAY TINUBU IS BAD...

BUT ON GROUND FROM ABIA TO ENUGU TO ANAMBRA TO OSUN TO OGUN TO BENUE TO NIGER TO ZAMFARA TO KEBBI TO KANO TO ADAMAWA TO BORNO ..

NIGERIANS ARE CELEBRATING REGULAR SALARIES MASSIVE INFRASTRUCTURAL REVOLUTION NOT SEEN IN A VERY LONG TIME..

MOST STATE GOVS ARE BEEN MASSIVELY CELEBRATED TODAY AS AGAINST A FEW YEARS BACK

YET DEY SAY TINUBU IS BAD..

Racoon:
A bad government should be rejected and voted out irrespective of whosoever is involved and not based on ethno-religo-regional sentiment agenda.

Nigeria should be better with each successive trajectory in democratic governance and not the gross retardation and bastardization being witnessed @present.

The North always want power, it isn't about Tinubu, it either they in charge or no peace, their aligence is only to their greed and quest for control.