Analysis: Atiku Does The Maths Nobody Wanted Done - SBM Intelligence - Politics

Analysis: Atiku Does The Maths Nobody Wanted Done - SBM Intelligence - Politics - Nairaland

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Analysis: Atiku Does The Maths Nobody Wanted Done - SBM Intelligence by treesun(op): 10:49am On Sep 22

Analysis: @atiku does the maths nobody wanted done.

Atiku Abubakar has criticised rising Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) disbursements, arguing that higher nominal allocations have been eroded by naira depreciation, inflation and debt.

Agora Policy data showed allocations rose 322% to ₦18.72 trillion in H1 2026 from ₦4.43 trillion in H1 2021. Meanwhile, Nigeria’s headline inflation eased marginally to 15.39% in August from 15.43% in July, while food inflation fell to 19.57%. The National Bureau of Statistics attributed the slowdown to declining prices of several food items, although significant regional differences persist.

The clash between the Tinubu administration and Atiku Abubakar over Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) disbursements points to a wider pattern that political actors, investors and policy analysts should track closely. It is the gap between nominal and real economic indicators.

The headline figures are striking. FAAC disbursements climbed by roughly 332% in naira terms between the first half of 2021 and the first half of 2026. They rose from about ₦4.43 trillion to ₦18.72 trillion. Adjust for naira devaluation, though, and that growth shrinks to a far more modest gain. It is estimated at around 33% in dollar terms at the prevailing official exchange rate.

This divergence sits at the heart of the political contest. It deserves treatment as a matter of measurement discipline, not partisan spin alone.

Source

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Re: Analysis: Atiku Does The Maths Nobody Wanted Done - SBM Intelligence by treesun(op): 6:14pm On Sep 22

This is shows Atiku is really prepared, Nlfpmod!

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Re: Analysis: Atiku Does The Maths Nobody Wanted Done - SBM Intelligence by IgOga(m): 12:51pm On Sep 23

Atiku isn't good at maths though grin

Did Atiku add the amount the FG was using to support the naira to artificially inflate it's value?

The table wey Atiku wan shake na him head e go fall las las

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Re: Analysis: Atiku Does The Maths Nobody Wanted Done - SBM Intelligence by HORLADY(m): 12:52pm On Sep 23

Atiku's analysis indeed.
As if Atiku can analyse any data without hiring a professional.

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Re: Analysis: Atiku Does The Maths Nobody Wanted Done - SBM Intelligence by Rayjay45: 12:52pm On Sep 23

SBM Intelligence I stan gidigba.

Atiku tho? Man must surely have some big brains working in his stables to have pulled this off.

Nonetheless he and Obi are heads and shoulders above the clown handling the nation's affairs at this time.

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Re: Analysis: Atiku Does The Maths Nobody Wanted Done - SBM Intelligence by slivertongue: 12:52pm On Sep 23

APC must be kicked out in 2027

37 Likes 1 Share

Re: Analysis: Atiku Does The Maths Nobody Wanted Done - SBM Intelligence by elijahozzy(m): 12:53pm On Sep 23

APC will not like this news because they want everybody to be brain dead like them never. Everyone will know the truth about this corruption government, we need good governance from a good man that’s gonna serve the people, don’t the APC recycle of old foolsss just doing business with the country at the exp of the young grown of the nation

17 Likes 2 Shares

Re: Analysis: Atiku Does The Maths Nobody Wanted Done - SBM Intelligence by Nackzy: 12:53pm On Sep 23

Tinubu is the New Hushpuppy of Nigeria

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Re: Analysis: Atiku Does The Maths Nobody Wanted Done - SBM Intelligence by shortgun(m): 12:54pm On Sep 23

What atiku is saying is simple.

Nigerians are getting poorer and hungrier, yet Tinubu says Nigeria is richer now than it was years ago. If the country is truly richer why are so many Nigerians struggling to afford basic food?
Tinubu really thinks every Nigerian is mentally static like his supporters

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Re: Analysis: Atiku Does The Maths Nobody Wanted Done - SBM Intelligence by Chicentt(f): 12:54pm On Sep 23

Atiku giving tinubu sleepless nights.
😂😂😂😂

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Re: Analysis: Atiku Does The Maths Nobody Wanted Done - SBM Intelligence by AMINDA: 12:55pm On Sep 23

HORLADY:
Atiku's analysis indeed.
As if Atiku can analyse any data without hiring a professional.

Does this make sense to you? Who said Atiku is doing the maths himself? At that level, getting professionals to do the maths for you is the sign of a serious candidate.

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Re: Analysis: Atiku Does The Maths Nobody Wanted Done - SBM Intelligence by boxypane: 12:57pm On Sep 23

Nigeria’s rising FAAC revenues are encouraging, but the real measure of economic progress is whether increased government resources, after inflation and naira depreciation, translate into stronger productivity, infrastructure, jobs and improved living standards for Nigerians.

It has been a sad NO

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Re: Analysis: Atiku Does The Maths Nobody Wanted Done - SBM Intelligence by morikee: 12:58pm On Sep 23

Atiku na analyst no doubt

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Re: Analysis: Atiku Does The Maths Nobody Wanted Done - SBM Intelligence by Ogabode: 12:58pm On Sep 23

Atiku said the truth that this government doesn't want to hear, more money, less value. Nigerians can see it in the market, not in press releases.

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Re: Analysis: Atiku Does The Maths Nobody Wanted Done - SBM Intelligence by Jayhome24: 1:01pm On Sep 23

Which maths pesin wey dey go jail before January from numerous looting cases already prepared against him.

E go do una like a movie keep watching..

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Re: Analysis: Atiku Does The Maths Nobody Wanted Done - SBM Intelligence by boxypane: 1:01pm On Sep 23

the problem is not simply how much money government receives, but how much real purchasing power remains after inflation and depreciation and how effectively that purchasing power is converted into productive investment and household welfare.

This is the part the current administration is confused about.

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Re: Analysis: Atiku Does The Maths Nobody Wanted Done - SBM Intelligence by AndroBlaze: 1:01pm On Sep 23

shortgun:
What atiku is saying is simple.

Nigerians are getting poorer and hungrier, yet Tinubu says Nigeria is richer now than it was years ago. If the country is truly richer why are so many Nigerians struggling to afford basic food?
Tinubu really thinks every Nigerian is mentally static like his supporters

It is obvious to everyone that Nigeria and more importantly Nigerians are poorer in 2026 than than they were in 2019.

It is also true to those who don't love doing revisionism that Nigerians as a people have successfully gotten poorer ever year since the late 70s and early 80s....... so what is the wonderful maths that Atiku has done that serious people have not known??

Is it bringing back subsidy that will ensure this slide is halted, or that naira gains against the dollar and jobs and living wages for everyone will be paid?

Thank you maths teacher Atiku.

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Re: Analysis: Atiku Does The Maths Nobody Wanted Done - SBM Intelligence by mikeapollo: 1:02pm On Sep 23

HORLADY:
Atiku's analysis indeed.
As if Atiku can analyse any data without hiring a professional.

That's what all leaders do. Hire the right professionals to get the job done well.

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Re: Analysis: Atiku Does The Maths Nobody Wanted Done - SBM Intelligence by Thiefobi1: 1:02pm On Sep 23

All analysis and no problem solving

Atiku should get out. grin

We are not mumu.

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Re: Analysis: Atiku Does The Maths Nobody Wanted Done - SBM Intelligence by Lifediary: 1:02pm On Sep 23

The rate of IQ depreciation in Nigeria is alarming! I never imagined Nigeria could get this deep in the abyss.

It actually doesn't need much IQ to be able to know that the current value of naira is nothing to be proud of. So, when you hear FAAC has increased by ...%, it should be general knowledge that it is just the value on paper and not the paper.

A lazy governor that spent 4,500 naira on a bag of cement in 2022, will be spending 15,000 naira on a bag of cement in 2026... this is not rocket science now!

So, when I see celebration about the increased FAAC, I just smh.

The government prefer zombies. You can see propaganda flying everywhere.

Well, I am not disappointed though!

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Re: Analysis: Atiku Does The Maths Nobody Wanted Done - SBM Intelligence by 1972xy: 1:05pm On Sep 23

Atiku has no moral right to be analising Tinubu economic policy.
He should bring out the $16b nepa money he stole as the vp.
All atiku is eyeing is the $54b tinubu has save so far in the national reserve to pack put for pocket.

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Re: Analysis: Atiku Does The Maths Nobody Wanted Done - SBM Intelligence by gratiaeo(m): 1:06pm On Sep 23

APC fraudulent organisation but it's very sad we don't strong opposition

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Re: Analysis: Atiku Does The Maths Nobody Wanted Done - SBM Intelligence by chicfarmer: 1:07pm On Sep 23

IgOga:
Atiku isn't good at maths though

Did Atiku add the amount the FG was using to support the naira to artificially inflate it's value?

The table wey Atiku wan shake na him head e go fall las las

Let it go. This discussion is way out of your league. undecided

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Re: Analysis: Atiku Does The Maths Nobody Wanted Done - SBM Intelligence by mycar: 1:07pm On Sep 23

The depreciation is scaring when compared with the much taunted zimbabwe dollars

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Re: Analysis: Atiku Does The Maths Nobody Wanted Done - SBM Intelligence by Nauttyprof(m): 1:08pm On Sep 23

elijahozzy:
APC will not like this news because they want everybody to be brain dead like them never. Everyone will know the truth about this corruption government, we need good governance from a good man that’s gonna serve the people, don’t the APC recycle of old foolsss just doing business with the country at the exp of the young grown of the nation

I hope by good man you don't mean one of the recycled politicians. The solution to Nigeria's problem lies outside these guys.

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Re: Analysis: Atiku Does The Maths Nobody Wanted Done - SBM Intelligence by seunjungle1(m): 1:10pm On Sep 23

Those guys working for federal government are extra ordinary brilliant. You will see how they will turn this over now to a campaign for Tinubu...only if Atiku knows he's just campaign for Tinubu by anything he push as a way of antagonising the federal government.
I don't even understand this dynamic things happening in our political sphere for now...

It looks like campaigning for APC whenever any opposition come out to antagonise the APC policies, and also,

Look stvpid whenever APC and its teams come out to campaign for themselves

Nigeria, shall be great by the grace of God

elijahozzy:
APC will not like this news because they want everybody to be brain dead like them never. Everyone will know the truth about this corruption government, we need good governance from a good man that’s gonna serve the people, don’t the APC recycle of old foolsss just doing business with the country at the exp of the young grown of the nation

1 Like

Re: Analysis: Atiku Does The Maths Nobody Wanted Done - SBM Intelligence by DEROXMAN: 1:10pm On Sep 23

Jayhome24:
Which maths pesin wey dey go jail before January from numerous looting cases already prepared against him.

E go do una like a movie keep watching..

I be tinubu supporter o but atiku can never go to prison, you know who he is, even tinubu don do bad deals with am for past

1 Like

Re: Analysis: Atiku Does The Maths Nobody Wanted Done - SBM Intelligence by chicfarmer: 1:12pm On Sep 23

Rayjay45:
SBM Intelligence I stan gidigba.

Atiku tho? Man must surely have some big brains working in his stables to have pulled this off.

Nonetheless he and Obi are heads and shoulders above the clown handling the nation's affairs at this time.

It's not really complicated. Many people have been saying this for a long time.

Convert how many bags of cement this allocation can buy compared to the quantity 2019 allocation could buy and you would arrive at the same conclusion. Tinubu's government have just been trying to hide behind one finger all these while. undecided

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Re: Analysis: Atiku Does The Maths Nobody Wanted Done - SBM Intelligence by Jeezuzpick(m): 1:13pm On Sep 23

treesun:
This is shows Atiku is really prepared, Nlfpmod!

He just added flesh to the same point so eloquently raised by Rufai on Arise TV, when he declared that the FAAC allocations being trumpeted by the APShits were a scam.

Anyway, he's free to plagiarize!

1 Like

Re: Analysis: Atiku Does The Maths Nobody Wanted Done - SBM Intelligence by olaniyilukman(m): 1:14pm On Sep 23

Ogabode:
Atiku said the truth that this government doesn't want to hear, more money, less value. Nigerians can see it in the market, not in press releases.

In 2019, you can comfortably get Toks camry 2004 model at the ratevof #1million two hundred thousand but this present day, Naija used of that same car is price around #4m to #5m while the Toks is #7m plus...

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Re: Analysis: Atiku Does The Maths Nobody Wanted Done - SBM Intelligence by 1vandragon: 1:16pm On Sep 23

Government policies should not be ones that cause avoidable suffering for majority of the people for longer than necessary while the political office holders corruptly and institutionally insulate themselves from the punushing consequences of thier own policy miscalculations.

While there may be other issues that are directly and indirectly contributing to the cost of pms in nigeria, it must be noted that failing to deal with the corruption and other inefficiencies in the system are major factors that keep the price of pms needlessly high.

So what is a possible way forward? I will try to simplify it.

Supply crude oil to local refineries at not more than 5% of budget level estimates and ensure they refine for the local market. The government should then do its responsibility of reducing smuggling to a level where it does not have a significant effect on local supply.

Now, the 2026 budget estimate is based on $65 per barrel of crude oil at #1400 to a dollar and projected 1.8m bpd production.

Today, crude oil sells for over $90 per barrel.

Dangote claims to need about 600,000 barrels per day. However, to supply the Nigerian market, he doesn't need more than 450,000 bpd to produce the about 35m litres of pms per day consumed on Nigeria on the average.

Out of the 1.8m bpd, the Nigerian government's share is about 60% which translates to over 1m bpd. Now, lets assume 300,000 bpd are tied to loans. The government should be able to supply 500,000 barrels of crude oil per day to local refiners at a maximum of $70 per barrel for the local market.

Is this subsidy? Yes.

Is the government making a loss? No.

Would local refineries be making a loss? No

Would it negatively affect budget estimates? No.

The government only has to invest more is securing the borders and monitoring distribution. Mind you, this will reduce all crude oil related products- pms, diesel, aviation fuel etc...

If refineries have leftover, they can export at international rates, more profit for them, but they must first satisfy thier local supply quota.

Are there quirks to be worked out? Definitely. But those should not be an issue for a government that is really interested in protecting the socio-economic wellbeing of its citizens.

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Re: Analysis: Atiku Does The Maths Nobody Wanted Done - SBM Intelligence by anonimi: 1:18pm On Sep 23

IgOga:
Atiku isn't good at maths though
Did Atiku add the amount the FG was using to support the naira to artificially inflate it's value?
The table wey Atiku wan shake na him head e go fall las las

How come the economy grew to the biggest in Africa with less debt burden than now when Tinubu voodoo reforms have crashed everything below zero?

anonimi:
"Tinubu made living in Nigeria expensive. I will make Nigeria affordable again" - Alhaji Atiku Abubakar

How come roads are worse now than ever huh

Video: The current state of Ikare–Ogbagi–Irun–Imesi Road a vital federal corridor connecting communities across Akoko land in Ondo State to Ekiti State and other parts of South West Nigeria. pic.twitter.com/MkR54FuYgC
— Káyọ̀dé Ògúndámisí 🇳🇬 (@ogundamisi) August 31, 2026

What Tinubu and APC can’t destroy does not exist.
11 years of change and 3 years of reform with subsidy removal TWICE along with huge debt cum tax burden on people, why should we have roads worse than when PDP gave us cheap petrol and cheap dollars without piling up debt?

givedemwotowoto:
“This is how the Benin–Asaba Expressway looks yesterday, Thursday, August 20, 2026. Look at how cars and trailers are stuck because of the bad road. Mr Peter Obi advised the APC to start fixing existing roads, but instead, they are att@cking him. Instead of Dave Umahi focusing on… pic.twitter.com/k3V0eCNOo8
— CHUKS 🍥 (@ChuksEricE) August 21, 2026

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