For the first time since the 1960s, there are 3 competitive political blocs largely along the old regional divides.

Hence the latest survey, which was commissioned by @EiENigeria and conducted by @sbmintelligence, did not provide us with a clear front-runner.

The first 2023 election survey conducted by SBM was published in July 2022 and showed that only 41% of registered voters had collected their Permanent Voters Cards (PVCs). (IMAGE 1)

This assumption of low turnout fed into our December 2022 projections, based on a 7,000-respondent survey. (Image 2)

The assumption of low turnout changed when, in January 2023, our 6,500-respondent survey on PVC collection showed a remarkable increase in PVC collection - 97%.

We believe that the surge in voter awareness done by
@inecnigeria and CSOs like Enough is Enough (EiE), through their #RSVP Campaign, have driven voter interest and bucked the low turnout trend in #Nigeria's elections.

Many respondents were clear about whom they felt would win the presidential contest in their state but were not straightforward about their candidate preferences. Furthermore, many registered voters told us that ethnicity and religion would play an important part in their choice.

This runs contrary to recent commentary, which suggests that #NigeriaDecides2023 will be #Nigeria’s first post-modern election, where substantial issues will determine voter choice.

The respondents also said that they expect vote buying despite recent technological and legislative changes to curb that. While an overwhelming majority of respondents claim that they won’t sell their vote, more than a third have experienced vote buying in the past.

The data suggest that @PeterObi and @Atiku could garner enough votes over a sufficient number of states across four of the country’s six geopolitical zones to meet the constitutional requirement of scoring 25% in at least 24 states. (Image 3 and 4)

https://twitter.com/sbmintelligence/status/1626597562282307594?t=viYDxVXs5qwPWmu2H6DvIA&s=19

This outcome, however, is complicated by the fact that @officialABAT is likely to do well in two of the country’s biggest voting states—Kano and Lagos—and the heavily populated south-west and north-west states, thereby winning the popular vote, but not reaching 25% in 24 states. (Image 1)

For all of the reasons enumerated above, we maintain our initial assessment from our two previous forecasts: Nigerians will need a second round to decide their next President definitively. (Image 2)

@KwankwasoRM may garner sufficient votes in Kano and some states in the north-central and north-west geopolitical zones to complicate the political math for other candidates on both the popular vote and the “Road to 24” measures.

Another observation is about #Nigeria’s waning confidence in INEC’s ability to deliver a free, fair and credible election. The relationship between the electorate and INEC appears to be influenced by the possible impact of insecurity on Election Day; (Image 3)

Another salient point is the declining interest in down-ballot elections. Most citizens are focused on the presidential election, owing to the power arrogated to the centre by #CFRN99. Interest in @nassnigeria elections was less than 20%. (Image 4)

Alert!! Fake heading!
Tinubu urchn mod has changed the topic of this post.

The SBM permutations had nothing to do with tinubu winning.
They tilted towards an PODATTI win.


Here are their permutations
AA- win 11 states, 25% in 27 states
Emilokan- win 9 states, 25% in 20 states.
PODATTI- win 17 states, 25% in 25 states.

Tinubu was ranked to come 3rd.
It's shameful how the heading was quickly changed.


Talking about the Elections,
I can't really speak for other south west states as I don't know much about them. But you see Lagos, expect something huge.

Apart for 1999, with the then AD, bola tinubu has never won any election in Lagos free and fair.

With the coming of BVAS and the curtail of miscreants activities, expect some shock results in various places especially in the south west and north.

Despite this, we modelled for the National Assembly elections, which points to a Senate dominated by the APC and a House of Representatives with the PDP in the majority, leading to potential legislative gridlock in a divided 10th National Assembly. ([b]Image 1)[/b]

The survey has attempted to account for demographics and voting numbers in each zone and their possible turnout to keep the citizenry aware of the issues pertinent to the coming 2023 elections. (Image 2)

It is hoped that this information will help people as well as enable institutional, civic and media stakeholders to make informed decisions that will benefit the future of #Nigeria.

Download the complete report - https:///G66lBDD1I5

We will publish a similar report on the governorship elections in the 28 Nigerian states that select their leaders along with the presidency in the lead-up to those elections in mid-March 2023.

For data wonks, download the working document here - https:///3mCcw7MEOg

Tinubu will win the election at first ballot forget the noise.

The way to go is for Tinubu to reach out to Kwakwanso and convince him to form an alliance. Kwakwanso can't win the election.

Every electoral year, SBM does this.

1. Obi isn't winning Kogi, Ondo, Nassarawa, Delta and Taraba. Not getting 25% in Sokoto, Ogun, Kebbi and Kastina and Oyo

2. Atiku isn't winning Borno, Yobe and Niger. Not getting 25% in Lagos, Ogun, Kogi and Cross River

3. Tinubu isn't winning Kano

But a Tinubu Run-Off with Obi? Stop the count!!!

Ok. So can they be done with this election already so that Nigeria can continue the suffering for another eight years?

We’ve done our own Math, it’s the other way round.

Peter Obi will likely win the highest number of votes when you factor in the expected voter apathy in parts of the country especially among supporters of the ruling party

PO may have a run-off with Tinubu or Atiku depending on how the core North votes

If Peter Obi can pull off 25% in all 6 SW states, or 5/6 and Gombe, he’ll likely be the next president of Nigeria

Dapagun:
Despite this, we modelled for the National Assembly elections, which points to a Senate dominated by the APC and a House of Representatives with the PDP in the majority, leading to potential legislative gridlock in a divided 10th National Assembly. (Image 1)

The survey has attempted to account for demographics and voting numbers in each zone and their possible turnout to keep the citizenry aware of the issues pertinent to the coming 2023 elections. (Image 2)

It is hoped that this information will help people as well as enable institutional, civic and media stakeholders to make informed decisions that will benefit the future of #Nigeria.

Download the complete report - /3EhIFg2

We will publish a similar report on the governorship elections in the 28 Nigerian states that select their leaders along with the presidency in the lead-up to those elections in mid-March 2023.

For data wonks, download the working document here - /3IcvbDc

I believe you know how it goes in Nigeria. When APC wins, many pdp members will move to APC.

Mynd44:
Every electoral year, SBM does this.

1. Obi isn't winning Kogi, Ondo, Nassarawa, Delta and Taraba. Not getting 25% in Sokoto, Ogun, Kebbi and Kastina and Oyo

2. Atiku isn't winning Borno, Yobe and Niger. Not getting 25% in Lagos, Ogun, Kogi and Cross River

3. Tinubu isn't winning Kano

But a Tinubu Run-Off with Obi? Stop the count!!!

Atiku will get 25% in Ogun ,Kogi and Crs.

Abeg get the correct message!

Mynd44:
Every electoral year, SBM does this.

1. Obi isn't winning Kogi, Ondo, Nassarawa, Delta and Taraba. Not getting 25% in Sokoto, Ogun, Kebbi and Kastina and Oyo

2. Atiku isn't winning Borno, Yobe and Niger. Not getting 25% in Lagos, Ogun, Kogi and Cross River

3. Tinubu isn't winning Kano

But a Tinubu Run-Off with Obi? Stop the count!!!

Nna mehnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn

Why e come dey pain this tribalistic mod na 😀 😍 🤩

Thiefnibu is going no where, whether yoro people likes it or not.

Mynd44:
Every electoral year, SBM does this.

1. Obi isn't winning Kogi, Ondo, Nassarawa, Delta and Taraba. Not getting 25% in Sokoto, Ogun, Kebbi and Kastina and Oyo

2. Atiku isn't winning Borno, Yobe and Niger. Not getting 25% in Lagos, Ogun, Kogi and Cross River

3. Tinubu isn't winning Kano

But a Tinubu Run-Off with Obi? Stop the count!!!

Even deep down you fully know that your assertion is not and can never be true.

Everybody wants to have a runoff with Obi
From structureless to lead contender

If anyone tells you Peter obi can not win again, tell them he is now sure to win 14 states plus FCT from the 36 states. The states are:
Abia
Ebonyi
Enugu
Imo
Anambra
Edo
Rivers
Cross River
Delta
Akwa ibom
Bayelsa
Benue
Plateau
Taraba
Fct.

The core North that obi won't do well, will be majorly divided by 3 candidates( Tinubu, Atiku and kwanswaso) and obi Will get something too.
South West will still be divided too, whereas South east and South south won't be so divided,and obi will get landslide victory there.

so let no person tell you it's not possible again, its so POssible

Anybody wey is welcome… na the remaining 3 months wey Buhari go still spend Dey worry me like dis.

Survey here and there. Leave sentiment, Jagaban is Nigeria next president.

Tinubu will not get the highest votes and there would be no run off.

Obi will win before 10am on election day by next week Saturday.

Thought Obi will not get up to 1k votes the whole federation. No structure party going into run off with almighty APC headed by Jagaban? You guys must be joking.

Who is taking this Pandora Obituary serious ?

Election is btw Asiwaju and Atiku


Obituary has no agent's in almost half of the polling units


Abeg. Keep this nonsense poll away.


Asiwaju and Atiku are the only contenders


Obituary is just online president of IPOB

Obituary is no match for Asiwaju

Tinubu is the next president. That’s all we care about.

K

Aiel123:

Atiku will get 25% in Ogun ,Kogi and Crs.

Sorry, which Ogun state?

Deceitful

There will be no rerun

Asiwaju will win convincingly

It will be a straight victory for Obi,when light appears darkness disappears.

I swear this election is btw Asiwaju and Atiku

Hopefully, we watching

Tinubu cannot win in Kano. Lagos will be evenly split. Atiku cannot win in Bayelsa.