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Nairaland Forum / Nairaland / General / Politics / PDP: 17 States, APC: 16 States, Swing: 4 States (10568 Views)
FG Releases N388Billion To 17 States (See Full List) / FG Owes 16 States N580bn On Rehabilitated Roads / Twitter Meter Analysis: PDP, 1.87% National Penetration And APC, 16.18%(PICS) (2) (3) (4)
Re: PDP: 17 States, APC: 16 States, Swing: 4 States by bodejohn(m): 6:32pm On Jan 14, 2015 |
babadee1: You are right...that is why I also think Ekiti is a swing state. 1 Like |
Re: PDP: 17 States, APC: 16 States, Swing: 4 States by Nobody: 6:33pm On Jan 14, 2015 |
Jokay07:ya Ekiti belonged to APC also. Remember Fayose? People are becoming more aware these days. There are and will be so many variables to determine the coming election, especially the presidential. The party which presently controls a state might matter less in the presidential race. |
Re: PDP: 17 States, APC: 16 States, Swing: 4 States by bodejohn(m): 6:36pm On Jan 14, 2015 |
ganye1: But same Nyako decamped to APC and his machinery couldn't safe him from impeachment. Again, this is my opinion, I am far away from Adamawa state. 1 Like |
Re: PDP: 17 States, APC: 16 States, Swing: 4 States by Nobody: 6:36pm On Jan 14, 2015 |
HzRF: What stupid statement is this How many times have Dele Belgore contested for the Guber election in Kwara for you to infer the part bolded The failure called Dele Belgore could not even win PDP Primaries election which was won by Sen Sulaimon Simeon Ajibola |
Re: PDP: 17 States, APC: 16 States, Swing: 4 States by bodejohn(m): 6:39pm On Jan 14, 2015 |
TippyTop: I am not speculating or supporting any party. I just laid my own opinions. |
Re: PDP: 17 States, APC: 16 States, Swing: 4 States by Raiders: 6:41pm On Jan 14, 2015 |
bodejohn:some of your analysis is wrong. The election is going to be determined by SS and SE state. GEJ don't really need to win the SW states all he need is to get 25% of SW states vote. In the 2011 election, PDP got the following votes: Ogun- 300,177 votes; Osun - 188,409, Oyo; 484,758 votes, Ekiti: 135,009. The total of this 4 SW states is 1.1 million votes. however in Delta state: PDP got 1.3 million vote which is about 200k more than the 4 SW states I listed above. All GEJ/PDP need to do is to make sure they win the SS and SE states with a landslide victory like in 2011 and try to get about 40% votes in SW and north states |
Re: PDP: 17 States, APC: 16 States, Swing: 4 States by HzRF(m): 6:42pm On Jan 14, 2015 |
babadee1:I beg amaechi no borrow crowd follow general abi money don dey dry Na aregbe suppose head crowd borrowing dept Aregbe sabi borrow ,money,crowd he's a maestro Just wait for Osun own ...the thing go surprise u Have already said this earlier and aregbe didn't disappoint... He pull such crowd during campaign for Aug 9 gubernatorial election If crowd determines vote.. Omisore wont pull up to 2k votes |
Re: PDP: 17 States, APC: 16 States, Swing: 4 States by bodejohn(m): 6:44pm On Jan 14, 2015 |
Adminisher: On the contrary, you can check my previous comments on NL. I am not pro PDP but slightly sympathetic to the change songs of the noisy opposition party. I have tried to be balanced in my opinion. |
Re: PDP: 17 States, APC: 16 States, Swing: 4 States by bodejohn(m): 6:49pm On Jan 14, 2015 |
Jokay07: I think I just represented your thoughts with names of state and I counted them. I also see a very close election and even though I have my biases, I tried my best to be neutra. |
Re: PDP: 17 States, APC: 16 States, Swing: 4 States by HzRF(m): 6:50pm On Jan 14, 2015 |
raumdeuter:Infact in 2011 obj can't beat aregbe he was the toast of the town Candidates that are not popular defeat popular candidates If adeleke was still pdp ede will be in pdp kitty.. Still pdp pulled votes Oyinlola cross carpet. Was a blow If these pple work for pdp aregbe would been a goner. . Take or leave it |
Re: PDP: 17 States, APC: 16 States, Swing: 4 States by Adminisher: 6:51pm On Jan 14, 2015 |
softwareman: There is positive sentiment for PDP in Lagos. Only it wont transform into electoral victory at the governorship and Presidential elections. PDP will win many assembly seats. I have spoken to many APC supporters who will vote PDP members into the assembly, the sophisticated reason they give is even though the governor has been good, lack of credible opposition in the house has been dangerous financially for the state. As for governorship and presidential, there are just too many state civil servants, government workers, teachers, APC members and their families, government contactors and Fashola supporters to stem the peeling away of votes for now. Tinubu also has market women locked down tight by his daughter. Maybe 2019 may be different but for now it is APC. |
Re: PDP: 17 States, APC: 16 States, Swing: 4 States by bodejohn(m): 6:58pm On Jan 14, 2015 |
Thanks guys, I am impressed we got to the third page without getting to FP and without insults and name calling...Afterall we can have healthy discussions without calling for each others head on NL. |
Re: PDP: 17 States, APC: 16 States, Swing: 4 States by bishopjoe02(m): 7:16pm On Jan 14, 2015 |
johnmartus: say wat u no...pdp still have much ground n edo state. ..oshiomole is nt as powerful n edo as u may think. Edo hv three main region.. Bini, esan nd estako. pdp control esan, oshiomole control estako. y both share Bini. ..nd d govnor popularity is going low in bini |
Re: PDP: 17 States, APC: 16 States, Swing: 4 States by ibisko04: 7:23pm On Jan 14, 2015 |
softwareman:I agree with your observation. Many things are not as they were in 2011, so it is wrong to use 2011 elections results to forecast for 2015 elections. |
Re: PDP: 17 States, APC: 16 States, Swing: 4 States by Bayswater: 7:28pm On Jan 14, 2015 |
maestroferddi: PDP is at the drawing board mapping out strategies on how to get 25% of the votes in the northern states, APC is here counting social media votes. I just hope you lot won't screaming rigging when the final votes are tallied and results announced. |
Re: PDP: 17 States, APC: 16 States, Swing: 4 States by pdpfund101: 7:29pm On Jan 14, 2015 |
edo state for PDP? Dis is wrong and unfair. Dont compare 2011 and 12015. Big differences starting from d ability of Buhari to campaign in other regions, no structure unlike now with 14 governors. This is an easy victory for apc because they've won already in Edo, Ogun, Osun, Lagos, Kwara, Nassarawa, Adamawa, imo , kano, kaduna, bauchi,niger,yobe, borno, gombe, sokoto, katsina,zamfara,jigawa and kebbi. the swing states are Rivers, Bayelsa (dickson and sylver factors), Benue and taraba, ebonyi (elechi coded weapon except he's impeach b4 then) and FCT Even if jonathan win these swing states, it will not win with more than 60% votes in each states. |
Re: PDP: 17 States, APC: 16 States, Swing: 4 States by ibisko04: 7:30pm On Jan 14, 2015 |
bishopjoe02:Wrong assessment mr man. APC will clear EDO state with at least 70% of votes. take note and make your comment after 14th February. |
Re: PDP: 17 States, APC: 16 States, Swing: 4 States by bodejohn(m): 7:35pm On Jan 14, 2015 |
pdpfund101: I will like to know the basis of your aguement. |
Re: PDP: 17 States, APC: 16 States, Swing: 4 States by co2(m): 7:36pm On Jan 14, 2015 |
@ OP I will differ a bit presidential elections differ a lot from local elections the only SW state I see APC winning is Osun. Ondo and Ekiti are for PDP. Oyo will most likely vote PDP likewise Lagos despite been ACT states Ogun is the only swig state in the region. SS and SE is clearly PDP all 11states despite having 3 APC controlled states. NC the battle ground of the 6 states I see PDP having 3 states Benue, Kogi and Plateau APC winning Kwara. Niger and Nassarawa swing states. NE Taraba is PDP Yobe is APC bornu is swing for now Adamawa is a strong hold of PDP but may also be said to be swing. Gombe and Bauchi are both PDP states but may vote APC. NW strong hold of the APC despite having 4 PDP governors the funny thing is that PDP will still win the required 25% . APC may have popular votes but PDP has the Spread. APC needs to break the SS and SE to be able to win there are no two ways about it . |
Re: PDP: 17 States, APC: 16 States, Swing: 4 States by bodejohn(m): 7:39pm On Jan 14, 2015 |
co2: Good analysis but what do you think will swig the south west votes to PDP? |
Re: PDP: 17 States, APC: 16 States, Swing: 4 States by gabriel212: 8:05pm On Jan 14, 2015 |
gratiaeo:which of the LAGOS are you referring to? If you mean the world one I reside in, it's belong to the APC with over a million vote. am telling you from reality unfortunately you will disagree but you shall see that this is a YORUBA STATE! |
Re: PDP: 17 States, APC: 16 States, Swing: 4 States by bishopjoe02(m): 8:37pm On Jan 14, 2015 |
ibisko04:I don't care who win the election. ..bt im telling u edo state is not for apc comes feb 14 |
Re: PDP: 17 States, APC: 16 States, Swing: 4 States by Gliding(m): 8:52pm On Jan 14, 2015 |
bodejohn:You should also consider the voting capacity of each state. Some states have as much as thrice the voting strength of other states. |
Re: PDP: 17 States, APC: 16 States, Swing: 4 States by emamos: 8:54pm On Jan 14, 2015 |
bodejohn:i dnt knw much abt politics but i lik d way u guys commentd maturly without name calln..Bles u all |
Re: PDP: 17 States, APC: 16 States, Swing: 4 States by kglamour(m): 9:12pm On Jan 14, 2015 |
bodejohn:kwara state on swinging state! this is like day dreaming. APC is like unopposed party due to emergency of Ajibola as PDP governor flag bearer. I am a kwaran and residing at kwara. maigida(incumbent gov) is from kwara south same as Ajibola, therefore kwara central(Ilorin) determine d winner. But mind u....... Sorry to say this! Ilorin won't vote for xtian! couple with powerful influence of leader(bukola saraki) |
Re: PDP: 17 States, APC: 16 States, Swing: 4 States by bodejohn(m): 9:23pm On Jan 14, 2015 |
kglamour: Thanks for your opinion... |
Re: PDP: 17 States, APC: 16 States, Swing: 4 States by bodejohn(m): 9:25pm On Jan 14, 2015 |
Gliding: I was just intrested in how the states would vote not about the number of votes... |
Re: PDP: 17 States, APC: 16 States, Swing: 4 States by ejiro2130(m): 10:41pm On Jan 14, 2015 |
raumdeuter: Sir why is benue a pdp state?? Considering current happening it' is likely an apc state going by last election it is a swing state |
Re: PDP: 17 States, APC: 16 States, Swing: 4 States by raumdeuter: 10:50pm On Jan 14, 2015 |
ejiro2130: EVen though it might be closer between the 2 parties but I still think PDP would win |
Re: PDP: 17 States, APC: 16 States, Swing: 4 States by ejiro2130(m): 10:55pm On Jan 14, 2015 |
raumdeuter: The margin maybe too small to affect the outcome of the presidential result, David mark from benue is idoma all the strong tiv men are apc and right now the tiv have strong hatred for pdp |
Re: PDP: 17 States, APC: 16 States, Swing: 4 States by ejiro2130(m): 10:58pm On Jan 14, 2015 |
TippyTop: Bros power of incumbency becomes useless once you lose grace root support, |
Re: PDP: 17 States, APC: 16 States, Swing: 4 States by realnaijaa: 11:05pm On Jan 14, 2015 |
bodejohn:Yes PDP will definitely lose on do state right now in a free and fair election. Mimiko as brought a lot of negativity to the party.it would have been better if they have rejected him from joining them. |
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