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PDP: 17 States, APC: 16 States, Swing: 4 States - Politics - Nairaland

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PDP: 17 States, APC: 16 States, Swing: 4 States by bodejohn(m): 4:44pm On Jan 14, 2015
This is just an academic exercise.

Going by the results of the last elections and current happenings in the country, I will attempt to analyze the upcoming presidential elections. This is not mere speculation as about 80% of my conclusion will based on empirical data which is the last presidential election.

I expect PDP to win comfortably (greater than 50%) in 17 states of Abia, Adamawa, Akwa Ibom, Anambra, Bayelsa, Benue, Cross River, Delta, Ebonyi, Edo (Yes EDO), Enugu, Imo, Kogi, Ondo, Plateau, Rivers and Taraba. I gave Edo and Rivers to PDP despite having governors of the opposition because PDP had 85 and 98% of total votes cast there in the last election. I very much doubt that the clout of the governors can upturn this even as I believe that the APC might garner a better figure than the 2011 polls.

I expect APC to win comfortably (greater than 50%) in 16 states of Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano, Kastina, Kebbi, Lagos, Niger, Ogun, Osun, Oyo, Sokoto, Yobe and Zamfara. I am going to give Lagos, Ogun and Oyo states to APC because they happen to be the base of the old ACN party that has metamorphosed into the APC. There is however doubts in some quarters whether there will be elections in Borno, Yobe and Adamawa states where insurgency is raging like wild fire.

The swing states is where the battle will be decided, these are
Ekiti – Very close results in the last election coupled with the new governor’s activities.
FCT – Close results and divided opinions
Kwara – Close results and decamping of the current governor to APC.
Nassarawa – Close past results and decamping of the sitting governor to APC.

I did not base my conclusion on any basis for the leading political parties, as it stands both parties have almost the same chance of winning the presidential polls…
Let the swing states decide…

Re: PDP: 17 States, APC: 16 States, Swing: 4 States by sartorius(m): 4:46pm On Jan 14, 2015
ondo is a swing state, kwara is for apc.

4 Likes

Re: PDP: 17 States, APC: 16 States, Swing: 4 States by babadee1(m): 4:51pm On Jan 14, 2015
You're wrong about Adamawa, APC will win very comfortably there same thing in Ondo. You need to factor in recent changes in the local politics.

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Re: PDP: 17 States, APC: 16 States, Swing: 4 States by bodejohn(m): 4:53pm On Jan 14, 2015
babadee1:
You're wrong about Adamawa, APC will win very comfortably there same thing in Ondo. You need to factor in recent changes in the local politics.

If you check the last results, the gap is quite wide. I think much has not changed since then in local politics. I may be wrong.
Re: PDP: 17 States, APC: 16 States, Swing: 4 States by raumdeuter: 4:53pm On Jan 14, 2015
Ondo is a swing state and Ekiti should be in the PDP corner

Adamawa is either with APC or at best a swing state.

I wonder why anyone would call Kwara a swing state, A state thats firmly in the grip of APC when the governor and all the power brokers there (Saraki) are in APC.

Nasarawa when did the governor decamp? Almakura was the only CPC (Buhari's party) governor elected if I remember correctly

I expect all SS and SE to go for Jonathan making 11 states plus Benue, Plateau, Taraba Kogi and Ekiti making 16

I expect All NW(7states) Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, Yobe, Niger, Kwara, Lagos, Ogun, Oyo, Osun to go GMB making 17

Swing states are Nasarawa, FCT, Adamawa and Ondo making 4 states

11 Likes

Re: PDP: 17 States, APC: 16 States, Swing: 4 States by softwareman(m): 4:56pm On Jan 14, 2015
Projecting 2015 based on 2011 is the the worst premise imaginable. A lot of underlying factor has changed. Most of all APC is very, very diffrent from CPC, Jonathan have lost two much ground and many other factors too innumerable to mention.

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Re: PDP: 17 States, APC: 16 States, Swing: 4 States by Nobody: 4:56pm On Jan 14, 2015
here to read comments

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Re: PDP: 17 States, APC: 16 States, Swing: 4 States by bodejohn(m): 4:58pm On Jan 14, 2015
raumdeuter:
Ondo is a swing state and Ekiti should be in the PDP corner

Adamawa is either with APC or at best a swing state.

I wonder why anyone would call Kwara a swing state, A state thats firmly in the grip of APC when the governor and all the power brokers there (Saraki) are in APC.

Nasarawa when did the governor decamp? Almakura was the only CPC (Buhari's party) governor elected if I remember correctly

I expect all SS and SE to go for Jonathan making 11 states plus Benue, Plateau, Taraba Kogi and Ekiti making 16

I expect All NW(7states) Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, Yobe, Niger, Kwara, Lagos, Ogun, Oyo, Osun to go GMB making 17

Swing states are Nasarawa, FCT, Adamawa and Ondo making 4 states

The basis of my analysis is the last presidential election. Check out Ekiti state's result.
About Nassarawa, you are right, I meant he moved with CPC into APC.
Kwara's margine is also wide, check the results too.
Re: PDP: 17 States, APC: 16 States, Swing: 4 States by peckhamboi: 4:58pm On Jan 14, 2015
bodejohn:

If you check the last results, the gap is quite wide. I think much has not changed since then in local politics. I may be wrong.

Bode,

Buhari won 12 million votes mostly in the North in the last election with a rag-tag party, the Congress for Progressive Change, with only a single governor and 1 senator to campaign for him.

Today, his party, the APC, has 14 governors, 43 senators and 186 Reps as well as 625 House of Assembly members, so you have to take into account the multipier effect this will bring; An example is Fayose who couldn't win a senate race(4 local governments) in 2011 with a rag-tag party(Labour) and got only 23% of the vote but won the governorship(14 local governments) with 71% of the vote 3 years later in 2014 with PDP


Your data model is also faulty because we don't use the American system of elections by number of states won, instead we use the popular vote and Buhari has dominant control of the North-West with a total number of 18.4 million voters and North-East with 10.2 million while South-West has 13.4 million voters, the three largest regions in the federation.


#Jonathanisgone

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Re: PDP: 17 States, APC: 16 States, Swing: 4 States by raumdeuter: 4:59pm On Jan 14, 2015
bodejohn:


The basis of my analysis is the last presidential election. Check out Ekiti state's result.
About Nassarawa, you are right, I meant he moved with CPC into APC.
Kwara's margine is also wide, check the results too.

In 2011 Kwara governor and Saraki were in PDP, today they are in APC, So a lot has changed in the Kwara landscape

Same with Ekiti, Last election PDP was not in power in Ekiti

A lot has changed in the last 4 yrs

2 Likes

Re: PDP: 17 States, APC: 16 States, Swing: 4 States by babadee1(m): 5:00pm On Jan 14, 2015
bodejohn:


If you check the last results, the gap is quite wide. I think much has not changed since then in local politics. I may be wrong.

Adamawa is now a hot spot for Boko Haram attacks, I doubt if Jonathan can even show up there to campaign cos there's a lot of bitterness against him now. Ondo PDP just recently split and half the party has joined the APC. The governor who decamped from Labour party to PDP has lost a lot of grassroots support as a result of that move.
Everything depends on local politics not just theories or projections.

5 Likes

Re: PDP: 17 States, APC: 16 States, Swing: 4 States by bodejohn(m): 5:01pm On Jan 14, 2015
softwareman:
Projecting 2015 based on 2011 is the the worst premise imaginable. A lot of underlying factor has changed. Most of all APC is very, very diffrent from CPC, Jonathan have lost two much ground and many other factors too innumerable to mention.

I don't think so. Check the last voting pattern and see my points.
I couldn't have given the states to any party without any reason.
Re: PDP: 17 States, APC: 16 States, Swing: 4 States by raumdeuter: 5:03pm On Jan 14, 2015
bodejohn:


I don't think so. Check the last voting pattern and see my points.
I couldn't have given the states to any party without any reason.

How can you base 2015 projection on 2011 results? Everyone can see that a lot has changed in the last 4yrs in Nigeria

4yrs ago Jonathan won 5 SW states, He would be lucky to win 2 now

5 Likes

Re: PDP: 17 States, APC: 16 States, Swing: 4 States by bodejohn(m): 5:05pm On Jan 14, 2015
babadee1:


Adamawa is now a hot spot for Boko Haram attacks, I doubt if Jonathan can even show up there to campaign cos there's a lot of bitterness against him now. Ondo PDP just recently split and half the party has joined the APC. The governor who decamped from Labour party to PDP has lost a lot of grassroots support as a result of that move.
Everything depends on local politics not just theories or projections.

I pointed out that we are not even sure if elections will hold in Adamawa but for Ondo state, the gap is about 300,000 votes from the last elections. Do you think the local politics can swing 300,000 votes?

1 Like

Re: PDP: 17 States, APC: 16 States, Swing: 4 States by raumdeuter: 5:07pm On Jan 14, 2015
bodejohn:


I pointed out that we are not even sure if elections will hold in Adamawa but for Ondo state, the gap is about 300,000 votes from the last elections. Do you think the local politics can swing 300,000 votes?

WHat was the gap in Lagos, Oyo, Ogun in 2011, What now swung the votes?

1 Like

Re: PDP: 17 States, APC: 16 States, Swing: 4 States by Ikengawo: 5:08pm On Jan 14, 2015
very fair and balanced assessment.

I think Ekiti and Kwara will go PDP, all the decamping and recamping doesn't matter to the electorate because politicians change parties like clothes.
Re: PDP: 17 States, APC: 16 States, Swing: 4 States by bodejohn(m): 5:08pm On Jan 14, 2015
raumdeuter:


How can you base 2015 projection on 2011 results? Everyone can see that a lot has changed in the last 4yrs in Nigeria

4yrs ago Jonathan won 5 SW states, He would be lucky to win 2 now

Exactly, I gave Oyo, Ogun and Lagos states to APC.
I didn't based my submission on the last elections, it was just a guide.
Re: PDP: 17 States, APC: 16 States, Swing: 4 States by Zonacom(m): 5:08pm On Jan 14, 2015
You v done a good job. Lagos and Kano's population might end up being PDP's greatest loss. The population in the two states will up APC's vote in no small measure. Again most PDP strongholds seem to be states with high voter apathy.

I just hope and pray everything ends well. Any shitter can win but no innocent life should be wasted

1 Like

Re: PDP: 17 States, APC: 16 States, Swing: 4 States by raumdeuter: 5:09pm On Jan 14, 2015
bodejohn:


Exactly, I gave Oyo, Ogun and Lagos states to APC.
I didn't based my submission on the last elections, it was just a guide.

So why didnt you extend that guide to Kwara and others?
Re: PDP: 17 States, APC: 16 States, Swing: 4 States by politifact: 5:10pm On Jan 14, 2015
bodejohn:
This is just an academic exercise.

Going by the results of the last elections and current happenings in the country, I will attempt to analyze the upcoming presidential elections. This is not mere speculation as about 80% of my conclusion will based on empirical data which is the last presidential election.

I expect PDP to win comfortably (greater than 50%) in 17 states of Abia, Adamawa, Akwa Ibom, Anambra, Bayelsa, Benue, Cross River, Delta, Ebonyi, Edo (Yes EDO), Enugu, Imo, Kogi, Ondo, Plateau, Rivers and Taraba. I gave Edo and Rivers to PDP despite having governors of the opposition because PDP had 85 and 98% of total votes cast there in the last election. I very much doubt that the clout of the governors can upturn this even as I believe that the APC might garner a better figure than the 2011 polls.

I expect APC to win comfortably (greater than 50%) in 16 states of Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano, Kastina, Kebbi, Lagos, Niger, Ogun, Osun, Oyo, Sokoto, Yobe and Zamfara. I am going to give Lagos, Ogun and Oyo states to APC because they happen to be the base of the old ACN party that has metamorphosed into the APC. There is however doubts in some quarters whether there will be elections in Borno, Yobe and Adamawa states where insurgency is raging like wild fire.

The swing states is where the battle will be decided, these are
Ekiti – Very close results in the last election coupled with the new governor’s activities.
FCT – Close results and divided opinions
Kwara – Close results and decamping of the current governor to APC.
Nassarawa – Close past results and decamping of the sitting governor to APC.

I did not base my conclusion on any basis for the leading political parties, as it stands both parties have almost the same chance of winning the presidential polls…
Let the swing states decide…
poor analysis
Re: PDP: 17 States, APC: 16 States, Swing: 4 States by bodejohn(m): 5:10pm On Jan 14, 2015
raumdeuter:


WHat was the gap in Lagos, Oyo, Ogun in 2011, What now swung the votes?

My point is they are now the base of APC, I didn't give Edo and Rivers to APC.
Re: PDP: 17 States, APC: 16 States, Swing: 4 States by atlwireles: 5:11pm On Jan 14, 2015
OP great job, I don't agree with some calls here, nevertheless, you did a great job.

2 Likes

Re: PDP: 17 States, APC: 16 States, Swing: 4 States by bodejohn(m): 5:11pm On Jan 14, 2015
politifact:
poor analysis

Thanks, but what are your points?
Re: PDP: 17 States, APC: 16 States, Swing: 4 States by raumdeuter: 5:11pm On Jan 14, 2015
^^ ANd Kwara isnt?

Can mention any notable politician with strong followership from Kwara who isnt in APC
Re: PDP: 17 States, APC: 16 States, Swing: 4 States by bodejohn(m): 5:12pm On Jan 14, 2015
raumdeuter:


So why didnt you extend that guide to Kwara and others?

APC won elections in Oyo, Ogun and Lagos states but Kwara decamped to APC.
Re: PDP: 17 States, APC: 16 States, Swing: 4 States by bappahman: 5:13pm On Jan 14, 2015
Keep counting, bayelsa is a state but with less than 400k voters. None of the core north states have less than a million voters with PVC, while bayelsa, enugu, abia all have less than one million.

2 Likes

Re: PDP: 17 States, APC: 16 States, Swing: 4 States by bodejohn(m): 5:15pm On Jan 14, 2015
bappahman:
Keep counting, bayelsa is a state but with less than 400k voters. None of the core north states have less than a million voters with PVC, while bayelsa, enugu, abia all have less than one million.

You are right but I think the elections is too close to call.
Re: PDP: 17 States, APC: 16 States, Swing: 4 States by lacasa: 5:15pm On Jan 14, 2015
Wen I read Gej winning adamawa, I gave up undecided

8 Likes

Re: PDP: 17 States, APC: 16 States, Swing: 4 States by Aksonman: 5:16pm On Jan 14, 2015
bodejohn:
This is just an academic exercise.

Going by the results of the last elections and current happenings in the country, I will attempt to analyze the upcoming presidential elections. This is not mere speculation as about 80% of my conclusion will based on empirical data which is the last presidential election.

I expect PDP to win comfortably (greater than 50%) in 17 states of Abia, Adamawa, Akwa Ibom, Anambra, Bayelsa, Benue, Cross River, Delta, Ebonyi, Edo (Yes EDO), Enugu, Imo, Kogi, Ondo, Plateau, Rivers and Taraba. I gave Edo and Rivers to PDP despite having governors of the opposition because PDP had 85 and 98% of total votes cast there in the last election. I very much doubt that the clout of the governors can upturn this even as I believe that the APC might garner a better figure than the 2011 polls.

I expect APC to win comfortably (greater than 50%) in 16 states of Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano, Kastina, Kebbi, Lagos, Niger, Ogun, Osun, Oyo, Sokoto, Yobe and Zamfara. I am going to give Lagos, Ogun and Oyo states to APC because they happen to be the base of the old ACN party that has metamorphosed into the APC. There is however doubts in some quarters whether there will be elections in Borno, Yobe and Adamawa states where insurgency is raging like wild fire.

The swing states is where the battle will be decided, these are
Ekiti – Very close results in the last election coupled with the new governor’s activities.
FCT – Close results and divided opinions
Kwara – Close results and decamping of the current governor to APC.
Nassarawa – Close past results and decamping of the sitting governor to APC.

I did not base my conclusion on any basis for the leading political parties, as it stands both parties have almost the same chance of winning the presidential polls…
Let the swing states decide…

PDP will take Lagos at the Presidential elections...quote me

6 Likes

Re: PDP: 17 States, APC: 16 States, Swing: 4 States by gratiaeo(m): 5:17pm On Jan 14, 2015
APC can only win lagos in dream. Who and who is going 2 vote for Buhari in lagos?

5 Likes

Re: PDP: 17 States, APC: 16 States, Swing: 4 States by MrMann1(m): 5:17pm On Jan 14, 2015
IMO, Ondo is clamouring for #CHANGE, the electorates are not in support of Mimiko's move, the PDP is already messed up there, high profile politicians of the state are decamping to APC. In Plateau, I predict a 50-50 result. However, the population of Lagos and Kano alone can predict the general result. IMO.

3 Likes

Re: PDP: 17 States, APC: 16 States, Swing: 4 States by softwareman(m): 5:17pm On Jan 14, 2015
bodejohn:


I pointed out that we are not even sure if elections will hold in Adamawa but for Ondo state, the gap is about 300,000 votes from the last elections. Do you think the local politics can swing 300,000 votes?
The kwara state house of assembly was 100 percent PDP in 2011, now it is 100 percent APC. local politics can swing by 100 percent.
I still insist that your projections are based on a completely wrong premise. Too much has changed in most states local politics and too many new factors will dominate this coming election.
YOU CANNOT USE 2011 FOR 2015!

1 Like

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