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PDP: 17 States, APC: 16 States, Swing: 4 States - Politics (2) - Nairaland

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Re: PDP: 17 States, APC: 16 States, Swing: 4 States by satelliteDISH(m): 5:18pm On Jan 14, 2015
GMB will win february 14 elections but jega will rig the election and pronounce Gej winner.
Re: PDP: 17 States, APC: 16 States, Swing: 4 States by MrMann1(m): 5:19pm On Jan 14, 2015
gratiaeo:
APC can only win lagos in dream. Who and who is going 2 vote for Buhari in lagos?
You are the dreamer.

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Re: PDP: 17 States, APC: 16 States, Swing: 4 States by Haykay80(m): 5:19pm On Jan 14, 2015
Check the map

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Re: PDP: 17 States, APC: 16 States, Swing: 4 States by Raiders: 5:22pm On Jan 14, 2015
If the election is free and fair like INEC has promise, I don't see PDP winning the presidential election. In the 2011 election, GEJ got over 50% of his vote from SS and SE states because the election was rigged to favour him. I was in Delta state during the 2011 presidential election and the turn out was really low but I was surprise when INEC declared that over 1 million people voted for GEJ. The election is going to be determined by which party rig more and I think PDP has more resources to out rig APC because they are master in the rigging game. As for me, I don't plan on voting because the result has already be determined and I don't see PDP losing the election..

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Re: PDP: 17 States, APC: 16 States, Swing: 4 States by Adminisher: 5:23pm On Jan 14, 2015
softwareman:
Projecting 2015 based on 2011 is the the worst premise imaginable. A lot of underlying factor has changed. Most of all APC is very, very diffrent from CPC, Jonathan have lost two much ground and many other factors too innumerable to mention.

Correct. The ship sailed on the PDP just a few months ago. The model of 2011 is so irrelevant for the PDP especially with the defections and the reduced opportunity to rig. For the 2011 elections there were two northerners sharing the votes in their base region and SW. The APC was virtually non existent as a party. Adamawa, Ekiti, Kwara and Edo states are very APC-looking now.
NC states are the real swing states and the best Jonathan can hope for there is a 50:50 split in states won, not even number of votes.

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Re: PDP: 17 States, APC: 16 States, Swing: 4 States by babadee1(m): 5:23pm On Jan 14, 2015
bodejohn:


I pointed out that we are not even sure if elections will hold in Adamawa but for Ondo state, the gap is about 300,000 votes from the last elections. Do you think the local politics can swing 300,000 votes?

Truth is SW states have the tendency to vote en bloc more than any other region and Jonathan was the de facto consensus Yoruba candidate in the last elections. Behind the scenes ACN abandoned their own presidential candidate and threw their support to Jonathan. This time around it's Buhari and he has a running mate very popular in the SW at the moment, the local dynamics in that region has changed completely. I won't be surprised if GEJ loses in Ekiti state as well.

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Re: PDP: 17 States, APC: 16 States, Swing: 4 States by brotherly: 5:36pm On Jan 14, 2015
APC cant win Lagos in the presidential election. mark my words

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Re: PDP: 17 States, APC: 16 States, Swing: 4 States by oshyno(m): 5:38pm On Jan 14, 2015
Aregbeshola narrowely won osun state. We are just making predictions. Wait till result starts churning out . APC won't know wat hit them.

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Re: PDP: 17 States, APC: 16 States, Swing: 4 States by maestroferddi: 5:40pm On Jan 14, 2015
Aksonman:


PDP will take Lagos at the Presidential elections...quote me
My brother I tire o, is it not Lagos where I reside?

Jonathan will clinch at least 50% in Lagos. Granted that Buhari has made a serious inroad into the SW as per the Tinubu factor but I can't see how PDP wouldn't handily nick Ondo, Ekiti and Lagos states.

People appear to base assumptions on the media propaganda making rounds...

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Re: PDP: 17 States, APC: 16 States, Swing: 4 States by johnmartus(m): 5:41pm On Jan 14, 2015
Mr man i think it's very wrong for you to make what had took place in 2011 election compared 2015 this matter isn't a matter of projection or either mathematics mathematics can only be use after electorate cast their vote many state you claimed for jonathan had initially reject jonathan edo is a good example where jonathan wouldn't commission a single project and you expect people to vote him
Re: PDP: 17 States, APC: 16 States, Swing: 4 States by softwareman(m): 5:45pm On Jan 14, 2015
gratiaeo:
APC can only win lagos in dream. Who and who is going 2 vote for Buhari in lagos?
You are right about who and who are going to vote for buhari and APC in Lagos.
PDP CONTROLS ALL THE LOCAL GOVTS, SENATE, HOUSE OF REPS, STATE ASSEMBLY SEATS IN LAGOS. THE GOVERNOR IS EVEN PDP. SO WHERE WILL APC VOTES COME FROM!!!

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Re: PDP: 17 States, APC: 16 States, Swing: 4 States by ganye1: 5:47pm On Jan 14, 2015
bodejohn:


I pointed out that we are not even sure if elections will hold in Adamawa but for Ondo state, the gap is about 300,000 votes from the last elections. Do you think the local politics can swing 300,000 votes?
The person, Nyako, who wrote that result the last time is no longer around and it seems nobody is willing to do it for him again and even if there is anyone willing to do it for him people won't allow it this time around.
Re: PDP: 17 States, APC: 16 States, Swing: 4 States by ganye1: 5:49pm On Jan 14, 2015
bodejohn:


I pointed out that we are not even sure if elections will hold in Adamawa but for Ondo state, the gap is about 300,000 votes from the last elections. Do you think the local politics can swing 300,000 votes?
The person, Nyako, who wrote that result the last time is no longer around and it seems nobody is willing to do it for him again and even if there is anyone willing to do it for him. The security situation in the state also made Jonathan extremely unpopular.
Re: PDP: 17 States, APC: 16 States, Swing: 4 States by striker07(m): 5:55pm On Jan 14, 2015
great analysis.
raumdeuter:
Ondo is a swing state and Ekiti should be in the PDP corner

Adamawa is either with APC or at best a swing state.

I wonder why anyone would call Kwara a swing state, A state thats firmly in the grip of APC when the governor and all the power brokers there (Saraki) are in APC.

Nasarawa when did the governor decamp? Almakura was the only CPC (Buhari's party) governor elected if I remember correctly

I expect all SS and SE to go for Jonathan making 11 states plus Benue, Plateau, Taraba Kogi and Ekiti making 16

I expect All NW(7states) Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, Yobe, Niger, Kwara, Lagos, Ogun, Oyo, Osun to go GMB making 17

Swing states are Nasarawa, FCT, Adamawa and Ondo making 4 states
Re: PDP: 17 States, APC: 16 States, Swing: 4 States by HzRF(m): 5:55pm On Jan 14, 2015
babadee1:
You're wrong about Adamawa, APC will win very comfortably there same thing in Ondo. You need to factor in recent changes in the local politics.
Then Osun is a swing state too
Re: PDP: 17 States, APC: 16 States, Swing: 4 States by Nobody: 5:58pm On Jan 14, 2015
Buhari can never win Lagos

Nigeria's centre of civilisation just can not vote for the Maximum Ruler
Re: PDP: 17 States, APC: 16 States, Swing: 4 States by TippyTop(m): 5:58pm On Jan 14, 2015
[size=15pt]Power of incubency nko?[/size]
Elections are not won on the internet, good analysis by the OP but i think jonny boy would win with much wider margin compared to what you gave him.

Gej till Buhari becomes born again.
Re: PDP: 17 States, APC: 16 States, Swing: 4 States by babadee1(m): 5:59pm On Jan 14, 2015
HzRF:

Then Osun is a swing state too

Osun will never vote for Jonathan, nothing has changed in the local politics to warrant that. You only have to look at the images from today's rally to see that PDP can't win in Osun state.
Re: PDP: 17 States, APC: 16 States, Swing: 4 States by Nobody: 6:00pm On Jan 14, 2015
softwareman:

The kwara state house of assembly was 100 percent PDP in 2011, now it is 100 percent APC. local politics can swing by 100 percent.
I still insist that your projections are based on a completely wrong premise. Too much has changed in most states local politics and too many new factors will dominate this coming election.
YOU CANNOT USE 2011 FOR 2015!
Some permutations here are flawed. This coming election will prove that. Ekiti was firmly an APC state few months ago until Fayose came from nowhere and floored Fayemi. The only certainty in this coming election is surprises

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Re: PDP: 17 States, APC: 16 States, Swing: 4 States by investnow2013: 6:01pm On Jan 14, 2015
Aksonman:


PDP will take Lagos at the Presidential elections...quote me
Yes for sure! & that's why Tinubu & co are deploying Osibanjo to make himself known to Lagos Voters & to campaign more in Lagos!
Re: PDP: 17 States, APC: 16 States, Swing: 4 States by Adminisher: 6:01pm On Jan 14, 2015
TippyTop:
Elections are not won on the internet, good analysis by the OP but i think jonny boy would win with much wider margin compared to what you gace him.

Gej till Buhari becomes born again.

This pro PDP thread is already against PDP. A 16:17 state ratio is a win for APC if Lagos, Kaduna and Kano are APC.
Re: PDP: 17 States, APC: 16 States, Swing: 4 States by HzRF(m): 6:03pm On Jan 14, 2015
raumdeuter:
^^ ANd Kwara isnt?

Can mention any notable politician with strong followership from Kwara who isnt in APC
Belgore
Mind u belgore do win but the machinery of saraki always crush him

Tho APC will still nabb it
Re: PDP: 17 States, APC: 16 States, Swing: 4 States by Jokay07(m): 6:07pm On Jan 14, 2015
bodejohn:
This is just an academic exercise.

Going by the results of the last elections and current happenings in the country, I will attempt to analyze the upcoming presidential elections. This is not mere speculation as about 80% of my conclusion will based on empirical data which is the last presidential election.

I expect PDP to win comfortably (greater than 50%) in 17 states of Abia, Adamawa, Akwa Ibom, Anambra, Bayelsa, Benue, Cross River, Delta, Ebonyi, Edo (Yes EDO), Enugu, Imo, Kogi, Ondo, Plateau, Rivers and Taraba. I gave Edo and Rivers to PDP despite having governors of the opposition because PDP had 85 and 98% of total votes cast there in the last election. I very much doubt that the clout of the governors can upturn this even as I believe that the APC might garner a better figure than the 2011 polls.

I expect APC to win comfortably (greater than 50%) in 16 states of Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano, Kastina, Kebbi, Lagos, Niger, Ogun, Osun, Oyo, Sokoto, Yobe and Zamfara. I am going to give Lagos, Ogun and Oyo states to APC because they happen to be the base of the old ACN party that has metamorphosed into the APC. There is however doubts in some quarters whether there will be elections in Borno, Yobe and Adamawa states where insurgency is raging like wild fire.

The swing states is where the battle will be decided, these are
Ekiti – Very close results in the last election coupled with the new governor’s activities.
FCT – Close results and divided opinions
Kwara – Close results and decamping of the current governor to APC.
Nassarawa – Close past results and decamping of the sitting governor to APC.

I did not base my conclusion on any basis for the leading political parties, as it stands both parties have almost the same chance of winning the presidential polls…
Let the swing states decide…
the factors which you grounded your claims are off-putting and simply ineffective and it looks like you modified everything just to suit your the affections you have for a political party. Time has changed, we have experienced several inter party defections, re-elections have taken place with the likes of Ekiti and Osun with others even the number of Pvc collected is another important factor to consider. These and many more are factors to pull down the weight of the last general election's results. I'm not trying to be biased but even if pdp would win election, it won't be a land slide victory, the gap would be so little. Why? Beacause if the majority of S.S and S.E are going PDP, it doesn't mean that Apc won't get their own share. The Northerners are strongly behind APC and it doesn't mean that PDP won't get her own share. Now come to south west, it's mostly belongs to Apc. The advantage Apc has is that, the northern population is higher than the Eastern population so they are likely to get enough vote while the western population is a little bit higher than the Southern population[i may not be correct]. To me, the election is just like Hausa and yoruba against Igbos and Ijaws now judge it with the factors I stated above. Thats my own view

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Re: PDP: 17 States, APC: 16 States, Swing: 4 States by bokohalal(m): 6:09pm On Jan 14, 2015
raumdeuter:


How can you base 2015 projection on 2011 results? Everyone can see that a lot has changed in the last 4yrs in Nigeria

4yrs ago Jonathan won 5 SW states, He would be lucky to win 2 now
Thank you!
No more sympathy votes for GEJ. Only in SE and SS. Every other place outside those regions he has to strenuously work to earn forty percent of the votes. And in at least one third of the thirty six states, he will have way less than that

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Re: PDP: 17 States, APC: 16 States, Swing: 4 States by HzRF(m): 6:09pm On Jan 14, 2015
Raiders:
If the election is free and fair like INEC has promise, I don't see PDP winning the presidential election. In the 2011 election, GEJ got over 50% of his vote from SS and SE states because the election was rigged to favour him. I was in Delta state during the 2011 presidential election and the turn out was really low but I was surprise when INEC declared that over 1 million people voted for GEJ. The election is going to be determined by which party rig more and I think PDP has more resources to out rig APC because they are master in the rigging game. As for me, I don't plan on voting because the result has already be determined and I don't see PDP losing the election..
Have always said that election in Nigeria is about number and the best rigger

With TVC that may be introduced ..APC should forget
Re: PDP: 17 States, APC: 16 States, Swing: 4 States by HzRF(m): 6:13pm On Jan 14, 2015
oshyno:
Aregbeshola narrowely won osun state. We are just making predictions. Wait till result starts churning out . APC won't know wat hit them.
Even with PDP heavy weight like oyinlola,adeleke
Itz about grassroots
Osun is there up for grab
Re: PDP: 17 States, APC: 16 States, Swing: 4 States by raumdeuter: 6:18pm On Jan 14, 2015
HzRF:

Even with PDP heavy weight like oyinlola,adeleke
Itz about grassroots
Osun is there up for grab

When Oyinlola and Adeleke were in PDP, How did the PDP fare in the last presidnetial election?

Has there been any notable politician who moved from APC to PDP since 2011?
Re: PDP: 17 States, APC: 16 States, Swing: 4 States by chacoonder(m): 6:22pm On Jan 14, 2015
Going by the present political razzmatazz in these 4 states,I'm of the opinion that APC will win comfortably.These states are:Ondo,Nasarawa,Rivers and Kwara.

1 Like

Re: PDP: 17 States, APC: 16 States, Swing: 4 States by chacoonder(m): 6:26pm On Jan 14, 2015
TippyTop:

[size=15pt]Power of incubency nko?[/size]
Elections are not won on the internet, good analysis by the OP but i think jonny boy would win with much wider margin compared to what you gave him.

Gej till Buhari becomes born again.
That is why you have to stand by your vote.
Re: PDP: 17 States, APC: 16 States, Swing: 4 States by bodejohn(m): 6:28pm On Jan 14, 2015
softwareman:

The kwara state house of assembly was 100 percent PDP in 2011, now it is 100 percent APC. local politics can swing by 100 percent.
I still insist that your projections are based on a completely wrong premise. Too much has changed in most states local politics and too many new factors will dominate this coming election.
YOU CANNOT USE 2011 FOR 2015!

I am not saying things are still like they are, but I think the changes are not enough to swing the gap that already exists.

All the political bigwits that you mentioned have not been tested at the polls.

This is just my opinion.
Re: PDP: 17 States, APC: 16 States, Swing: 4 States by Tundeajani(m): 6:30pm On Jan 14, 2015
softwareman:

You are right about who and who are going to vote for buhari and APC in Lagos.
PDP CONTROLS ALL THE LOCAL GOVTS, SENATE, HOUSE OF REPS, STATE ASSEMBLY SEATS IN LAGOS. THE GOVERNOR IS EVEN PDP. SO WHERE WILL APC VOTES COME FROM!!!
lol,,falls from iroko,,egbon eleyii ti poju tanoid yii
Re: PDP: 17 States, APC: 16 States, Swing: 4 States by babadee1(m): 6:31pm On Jan 14, 2015
Aksonman:


PDP will take Lagos at the Presidential elections...quote me

You must be a novice in politics. The only reason Jonathan won in Lagos last time was because Tinubu cut a deal with him behind the scenes. Nothing like that this time around.

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