babadee1:


Truth is SW states have the tendency to vote en bloc more than any other region and Jonathan was the de facto consensus Yoruba candidate in the last elections. Behind the scenes ACN abandoned their own presidential candidate and threw their support to Jonathan. This time around it's Buhari and he has a running mate very popular in the SW at the moment, the local dynamics in that region has changed completely. I won't be surprised if GEJ loses in Ekiti state as well.

You are right...that is why I also think Ekiti is a swing state.

Jokay07:
the factors which you grounded your claims are off-putting and simply ineffective and it looks like you modified everything just to suit your the affections you have for a political party. Time has changed, we have experienced several inter party defections, re-elections have taken place with the likes of Ekiti and Osun with others even the number of Pvc collected is another important factor to consider. These and many more are factors to pull down the weight of the last general election's results. I'm not trying to be biased but even if pdp would win election, it won't be a land slide victory, the gap would be so little. Why? Beacause if the majority of S.S and S.E are going PDP, it doesn't mean that Apc won't get their own share. The Northerners are strongly behind APC and it doesn't mean that PDP won't get her own share. Now come to south west, it's mostly belongs to Apc. The advantage Apc has is that, the northern population is higher than the Eastern population so they are likely to get enough vote while the western population is a little bit higher than the Southern population[i may not be correct]. To me, the election is just like Hausa and yoruba against Igbos and Ijaws now judge it with the factors I stated above. Thats my own view

ya Ekiti belonged to APC also. Remember Fayose?

People are becoming more aware these days. There are and will be so many variables to determine the coming election, especially the presidential. The party which presently controls a state might matter less in the presidential race.

ganye1:

The person, Nyako, who wrote that result the last time is no longer around and it seems nobody is willing to do it for him again and even if there is anyone willing to do it for him people won't allow it this time around.

But same Nyako decamped to APC and his machinery couldn't safe him from impeachment.
Again, this is my opinion, I am far away from Adamawa state.

HzRF:

Belgore
Mind u belgore do win but the machinery of saraki always crush him

Tho APC will still nabb it

What stupid statement is this

How many times have Dele Belgore contested for the Guber election in Kwara for you to infer the part bolded

The failure called Dele Belgore could not even win PDP Primaries election which was won by Sen Sulaimon Simeon Ajibola

TippyTop:

[size=15pt]Power of incubency nko?[/size]
Elections are not won on the internet, good analysis by the OP but i think jonny boy would win with much wider margin compared to what you gave him.

Gej till Buhari becomes born again.

I am not speculating or supporting any party. I just laid my own opinions.

bodejohn:


I am not saying things are still like they are, but I think the changes are not enough to swing the gap that already exists.

All the political bigwits that you mentioned have not been tested at the polls.

This is just my opinion.

some of your analysis is wrong. The election is going to be determined by SS and SE state. GEJ don't really need to win the SW states all he need is to get 25% of SW states vote. In the 2011 election, PDP got the following votes: Ogun- 300,177 votes; Osun - 188,409, Oyo; 484,758 votes, Ekiti: 135,009. The total of this 4 SW states is 1.1 million votes. however in Delta state: PDP got 1.3 million vote which is about 200k more than the 4 SW states I listed above. All GEJ/PDP need to do is to make sure they win the SS and SE states with a landslide victory like in 2011 and try to get about 40% votes in SW and north states

babadee1:


Osun will never vote for Jonathan, nothing has changed in the local politics to warrant that. You only have to look at the images from today's rally to see that PDP can't win in Osun state.

I beg amaechi no borrow crowd follow general abi money don dey dry

Na aregbe suppose head crowd borrowing dept

Aregbe sabi borrow ,money,crowd he's a maestro

Just wait for Osun own ...the thing go surprise u

Have already said this earlier and aregbe didn't disappoint... He pull such crowd during campaign for Aug 9 gubernatorial election
If crowd determines vote.. Omisore wont pull up to 2k votes

Adminisher:


This pro PDP thread is already against PDP. A 16:17 state ratio is a win for APC if Lagos, Kaduna and Kano are APC.

On the contrary, you can check my previous comments on NL. I am not pro PDP but slightly sympathetic to the change songs of the noisy opposition party. I have tried to be balanced in my opinion.

Jokay07:
the factors which you grounded your claims are off-putting and simply ineffective and it looks like you modified everything just to suit your the affections you have for a political party. Time has changed, we have experienced several inter party defections, re-elections have taken place with the likes of Ekiti and Osun with others even the number of Pvc collected is another important factor to consider. These and many more are factors to pull down the weight of the last general election's results. I'm not trying to be biased but even if pdp would win election, it won't be a land slide victory, the gap would be so little. Why? Beacause if the majority of S.S and S.E are going PDP, it doesn't mean that Apc won't get their own share. The Northerners are strongly behind APC and it doesn't mean that PDP won't get her own share. Now come to south west, it's mostly belongs to Apc. The advantage Apc has is that, the northern population is higher than the Eastern population so they are likely to get enough vote while the western population is a little bit higher than the Southern population[i may not be correct]. To me, the election is just like Hausa and yoruba against Igbos and Ijaws now judge it with the factors I stated above. Thats my own view

I think I just represented your thoughts with names of state and I counted them.

I also see a very close election and even though I have my biases, I tried my best to be neutra.

raumdeuter:


When Oyinlola and Adeleke were in PDP, How did the PDP fare in the last presidnetial election?

Has there been any notable politician who moved from APC to PDP since 2011?

Infact in 2011 obj can't beat aregbe he was the toast of the town
Candidates that are not popular defeat popular candidates

If adeleke was still pdp ede will be in pdp kitty.. Still pdp pulled votes
Oyinlola cross carpet. Was a blow
If these pple work for pdp aregbe would been a goner. . Take or leave it

softwareman:

You are right about who and who are going to vote for buhari and APC in Lagos.
PDP CONTROLS ALL THE LOCAL GOVTS, SENATE, HOUSE OF REPS, STATE ASSEMBLY SEATS IN LAGOS. THE GOVERNOR IS EVEN PDP. SO WHERE WILL APC VOTES COME FROM!!!

There is positive sentiment for PDP in Lagos. Only it wont transform into electoral victory at the governorship and Presidential elections. PDP will win many assembly seats. I have spoken to many APC supporters who will vote PDP members into the assembly, the sophisticated reason they give is even though the governor has been good, lack of credible opposition in the house has been dangerous financially for the state.

As for governorship and presidential, there are just too many state civil servants, government workers, teachers, APC members and their families, government contactors and Fashola supporters to stem the peeling away of votes for now. Tinubu also has market women locked down tight by his daughter. Maybe 2019 may be different but for now it is APC.

Thanks guys, I am impressed we got to the third page without getting to FP and without insults and name calling...Afterall we can have healthy discussions without calling for each others head on NL.

johnmartus:
Mr man i think it's very wrong for you to make what had took place in 2011 election compared 2015 this matter isn't a matter of projection or either mathematics mathematics can only be use after electorate cast their vote many state you claimed for jonathan had initially reject jonathan edo is a good example where jonathan wouldn't commission a single project and you expect people to vote him

say wat u no...pdp still have much ground n edo state. ..oshiomole is nt as powerful n edo as u may think.

Edo hv three main region.. Bini, esan nd estako. pdp control esan, oshiomole control estako. y both share Bini. ..nd d govnor popularity is going low in bini

softwareman:
Projecting 2015 based on 2011 is the the worst premise imaginable. A lot of underlying factor has changed. Most of all APC is very, very diffrent from CPC, Jonathan have lost two much ground and many other factors too innumerable to mention.

I agree with your observation. Many things are not as they were in 2011, so it is wrong to use 2011 elections results to forecast for 2015 elections.

maestroferddi:
My brother I tire o, is it not Lagos where I reside?

Jonathan will clinch at least 50% in Lagos. Granted that Buhari has made a serious inroad into the SW as per the Tinubu factor but I can't see how PDP wouldn't handily nick Ondo, Ekiti and Lagos states.

People appear to base assumptions on the media propaganda making rounds...

PDP is at the drawing board mapping out strategies on how to get 25% of the votes in the northern states, APC is here counting social media votes. I just hope you lot won't screaming rigging when the final votes are tallied and results announced.

edo state for PDP? Dis is wrong and unfair. Dont compare 2011 and 12015. Big differences starting from d ability of Buhari to campaign in other regions, no structure unlike now with 14 governors. This is an easy victory for apc because they've won already in Edo, Ogun, Osun, Lagos, Kwara, Nassarawa, Adamawa, imo , kano, kaduna, bauchi,niger,yobe, borno, gombe, sokoto, katsina,zamfara,jigawa and kebbi. the swing states are Rivers, Bayelsa (dickson and sylver factors), Benue and taraba, ebonyi (elechi coded weapon except he's impeach b4 then) and FCT Even if jonathan win these swing states, it will not win with more than 60% votes in each states.

bishopjoe02:


say wat u no...pdp still have much ground n edo state. ..oshiomole is nt as powerful n edo as u may think.

Edo three main region.. Bini, esan nd estako. pdp control esan, oshiomole control estako. y bt share Bini. ..nd d govnor popularity is going low in bini

Wrong assessment mr man. APC will clear EDO state with at least 70% of votes. take note and make your comment after 14th February.

pdpfund101:
edo state for PDP? Dis is wrong and unfair. Dont compare 2011 and 12015. Big differences starting from d ability of Buhari to campaign in other regions, no structure unlike now with 14 governors. This is an easy victory for apc because they've won already in Edo, Ogun, Osun, Lagos, Kwara, Nassarawa, Adamawa, imo , kano, kaduna, bauchi,niger,yobe, borno, gombe, sokoto, katsina,zamfara,jigawa and kebbi. the swing states are Rivers, Bayelsa (dickson and sylver factors), Benue and taraba, ebonyi (elechi coded weapon except he's impeach b4 then) and FCT Even if jonathan win these swing states, it will not win with more than 60% votes in each states.

I will like to know the basis of your aguement.

@ OP I will differ a bit presidential elections differ a lot from local elections the only SW state I see APC winning is Osun. Ondo and Ekiti are for PDP. Oyo will most likely vote PDP likewise Lagos despite been ACT states Ogun is the only swig state in the region. SS and SE is clearly PDP all 11states despite having 3 APC controlled states. NC the battle ground of the 6 states I see PDP having 3 states Benue, Kogi and Plateau APC winning Kwara. Niger and Nassarawa swing states. NE Taraba is PDP Yobe is APC bornu is swing for now Adamawa is a strong hold of PDP but may also be said to be swing. Gombe and Bauchi are both PDP states but may vote APC.
NW strong hold of the APC despite having 4 PDP governors the funny thing is that PDP will still win the required 25% . APC may have popular votes but PDP has the Spread. APC needs to break the SS and SE to be able to win there are no two ways about it .

co2:
@ OP I will differ a bit presidential elections differ a lot from local elections the only SW state I see APC winning is Osun. Ondo and Ekiti are for PDP. Oyo will most likely vote PDP likewise Lagos despite been ACT states Ogun is the only swig state in the region. SS and SE is clearly PDP all 11states despite having 3 APC controlled states. NC the battle ground of the 6 states I see PDP having 3 states Benue, Kogi and Plateau APC winning Kwara. Niger and Nassarawa swing states. NE Taraba is PDP Yobe is APC bornu is swing for now Adamawa is a strong hold of PDP but may also be said to be swing. Gombe and Bauchi are both PDP states but may vote APC.
NW strong hold of the APC despite having 4 PDP governors the funny thing is that PDP will still win the required 25% . APC may have popular votes but PDP has the Spread. APC needs to break the SS and SE to be able to win there are no two ways about it .

Good analysis but what do you think will swig the south west votes to PDP?

gratiaeo:
APC can only win lagos in dream. Who and who is going 2 vote for Buhari in lagos?

which of the LAGOS are you referring to?
If you mean the world one I reside in, it's belong to the APC with over a million vote. am telling you from reality unfortunately you will disagree but you shall see that this is a YORUBA STATE!

ibisko04:

Wrong assessment mr man. APC will clear EDO state with at least 70% of votes. take note and make your comment after 14th February.

I don't care who win the election. ..bt im telling u edo state is not for apc comes feb 14

bodejohn:


If you check the last results, the gap is quite wide. I think much has not changed since then in local politics. I may be wrong.

You should also consider the voting capacity of each state. Some states have as much as thrice the voting strength of other states.

bodejohn:
Thanks guys, I am impressed we got to the third page without getting to FP and without insults and name calling...Afterall we can have healthy discussions without calling for each others head on NL.

i dnt knw much abt politics but i lik d way u guys commentd maturly without name calln..Bles u all

bodejohn:
This is just an academic exercise.

Going by the results of the last elections and current happenings in the country, I will attempt to analyze the upcoming presidential elections. This is not mere speculation as about 80% of my conclusion will based on empirical data which is the last presidential election.

I expect PDP to win comfortably (greater than 50%) in 17 states of Abia, Adamawa, Akwa Ibom, Anambra, Bayelsa, Benue, Cross River, Delta, Ebonyi, Edo (Yes EDO), Enugu, Imo, Kogi, Ondo, Plateau, Rivers and Taraba. I gave Edo and Rivers to PDP despite having governors of the opposition because PDP had 85 and 98% of total votes cast there in the last election. I very much doubt that the clout of the governors can upturn this even as I believe that the APC might garner a better figure than the 2011 polls.

I expect APC to win comfortably (greater than 50%) in 16 states of Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano, Kastina, Kebbi, Lagos, Niger, Ogun, Osun, Oyo, Sokoto, Yobe and Zamfara. I am going to give Lagos, Ogun and Oyo states to APC because they happen to be the base of the old ACN party that has metamorphosed into the APC. There is however doubts in some quarters whether there will be elections in Borno, Yobe and Adamawa states where insurgency is raging like wild fire.

The swing states is where the battle will be decided, these are
Ekiti – Very close results in the last election coupled with the new governor’s activities.
FCT – Close results and divided opinions
Kwara – Close results and decamping of the current governor to APC.
Nassarawa – Close past results and decamping of the sitting governor to APC.

I did not base my conclusion on any basis for the leading political parties, as it stands both parties have almost the same chance of winning the presidential polls…
Let the swing states decide…

kwara state on swinging state! this is like day dreaming. APC is like unopposed party due to emergency of Ajibola as PDP governor flag bearer.
I am a kwaran and residing at kwara. maigida(incumbent gov) is from kwara south same as Ajibola, therefore kwara central(Ilorin) determine d winner. But mind u....... Sorry to say this! Ilorin won't vote for xtian! couple with powerful influence of leader(bukola saraki)

kglamour:

kwara state on swinging state! this is like day dreaming. APC is like unopposed party due to emergency of Ajibola as PDP governor flag bearer.
I am a kwaran and residing at kwara. maigida(incumbent gov) is from kwara south same as Ajibola, therefore kwara central(Ilorin) determine d winner. But mind u....... Sorry to say this! Ilorin won't vote for xtian! couple with powerful influence of leader(bukola saraki)

Thanks for your opinion...

Gliding:

You should also consider the voting capacity of each state. Some states have as much as thrice the voting strength of other states.

I was just intrested in how the states would vote not about the number of votes...

raumdeuter:
Ondo is a swing state and Ekiti should be in the PDP corner

Adamawa is either with APC or at best a swing state.

I wonder why anyone would call Kwara a swing state, A state thats firmly in the grip of APC when the governor and all the power brokers there (Saraki) are in APC.

Nasarawa when did the governor decamp? Almakura was the only CPC (Buhari's party) governor elected if I remember correctly

I expect all SS and SE to go for Jonathan making 11 states plus Benue, Plateau, Taraba Kogi and Ekiti making 16

I expect All NW(7states) Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, Yobe, Niger, Kwara, Lagos, Ogun, Oyo, Osun to go GMB making 17

Swing states are Nasarawa, FCT, Adamawa and Ondo making 4 states

Sir why is benue a pdp state?? Considering current happening it' is likely an apc state going by last election it is a swing state

ejiro2130:


Sir why is benue a pdp state?? Considering current happening it' is likely an apc state going by last election it is a swing state

EVen though it might be closer between the 2 parties but I still think PDP would win

raumdeuter:


EVen though it might be closer between the 2 parties but I still think PDP would win

The margin maybe too small to affect the outcome of the presidential result, David mark from benue is idoma all the strong tiv men are apc and right now the tiv have strong hatred for pdp

TippyTop:

[size=15pt]Power of incubency nko?[/size]
Elections are not won on the internet, good analysis by the OP but i think jonny boy would win with much wider margin compared to what you gave him.

Gej till Buhari becomes born again.

Bros power of incumbency becomes useless once you lose grace root support,

bodejohn:


I pointed out that we are not even sure if elections will hold in Adamawa but for Ondo state, the gap is about 300,000 votes from the last elections. Do you think the local politics can swing 300,000 votes?

Yes PDP will definitely lose on do state right now in a free and fair election. Mimiko as brought a lot of negativity to the party.it would have been better if they have rejected him from joining them.