₦airaland Forum

barcanista:
Afenifere And OPC Favor Jonathan
The endorsement of Jonathan's candidacy by the influential pan Yoruba group Afenifere and O'dua Peoples' Congress will in no small way influence the voting pattern of their members-most of whom are grassroot people. Otunba Gani Adams, National Coordinator, OPC said, “we took time to study the situation of things and we took time to look at the capacity of the candidates involved. I won’t deceive you, from the National Coordinating Council, we have decided to inform our followers that they should vote for President Jonathan.”

The National leader of OPC Chief Fedrick Fasheun had earlier threw his support behind the re-election bid of President Jonathan.

However, another influential group, The Yoruba Council of Elders refused to publicly endorse any of the candidates.

A Look at APC:
No doubt, APC controls 4 out of the Six government houses in the SW as at today, but the party has seen a huge dip in its political fortune in the region. One of the factor that helped the party to win Oyo and Ogun States in 2011 was the heavy factionalisaton within the PDP. Today, the APC in Ogun has had a major split with the SDP coming out a very strong beneficiary taking all Senators. The PDP in Ogun State is united. The APC also lost ALL their Senators in Oyo state, they can't boast of any today- though they gained a Senator in Ondo. In Lagos State, the influential Justice Group left the APC for the PDP. In Ekiti State, the APC was rejected in 2014. In Osun where it hold sway, the anger of civil servants over delay in payment of five(5) months salary may reflect at the Presidential poll. In Ondo State, the APC is not a force as it has little or no structure on ground.

Conclusion
With the Leading parties in the SW and two highly influential groups queuing behind the President's re-election, it is safe to say that the Yoruba nation favors President Jonathan, while the APC candidate Gen Buhari plays second fiddle. Though it won't be fair to write off APC from the political calculation of the SW, yet it will amount to misinformation to say the APC is in control of the region.


God Bless The Yoruba Nation
God Bless Nigeria
God Bless President Jonathan
President 2010-2019

barcanista:
APC will retain Ogun? Obviously you know nothing or too little about the politics of Ogun State. It is very easy to talk but on what basis? Buhari will be shocked...I doubt if you know how Apc won ogun in the first place. As for Oyo, you sure don't understand politics of Oyo State...Remember Ekiti!

integralng:
Let me begin by saying:'Yoruba won't vote for Jonathan' is not a phrase,it is a statement.You don't call a group of words that has verbs such as 'will'(won't) and 'vote' a phrase.Anyway,that was on a light note.In view of the factors you have stated ,I am of the conviction that the next presidential election will tilt towards the candidate of the APC General Muhammadu Buhari.The mushroom political parties such as the SDP and the LP don't have the structures to call out their supporters to give bloc votes to GEJ.Besides Gbenga Kaka who is a former deputy Governor of Ogun,two other senators won the senatorial elections not on the basis of their political structure or popularity but on the strength of the party the A CN then.Although Segun Osoba is a strong factor in Ogun State,you must be aware of the fact that he is not standing any election and his party does not have a candidate in the presidential election.Most of the sympathisers of the SDP in Ogun State may not have much interest in any election except the local election which is the gubernatorial election.You should also take note that the Vice Presidential candidate of the APC Professor Yemi Osinbanjo is an indigene of Ogun State and an in-law to the late late sage Chief Obafemi Awolowo.So a non-party member/neutral indigene of Ogun State will find voting for the APC/GMB more rewarding than throwing their weight to GEJ/Sambo who are foreigners.Concerning your assertion that GEJ will benefit adequately from the Akala/Makinde/Ladoja,please do note that these three people draw their supporters from the PDP so they may not be able to command more votes in this year's election than they did in 2011 when they asked all their supporters to vote for GEJ.It should also be mentioned that during the 2011 presidential election,Akala was still the governor of Oyo State that time so it was very easy for the PDP to mobilise supports for GEJ.But today,Akala,who you claim has a strong support base in Ogbomosho,will need to contend with Soun of Ogbomosho's factor whose son is the House of Representatives candidate of the APC.Soun is a strong/influential traditional ruler in that part of the state.Putting the foregoing into consideration,it is not illogical to posit that the Akala's factor in Ogbomosho may be wittled down in the presidential election.What will happen in Ogbomosho may play out in Oyo town where Alaafin of Oyo holds sway.Alaafin is a strong Oba in Oyo State and he delivered all the four local governments in Oyo Town to the A CN in 2011.This time around,one of his sons is the House of Representatives candidate of the APC in Oyo.On Seyi Makinde,I will not waste my time putting forward any argument to counter your sentiment because nobody knows him.He is a paper- weight politician.In response to your assertion that the PDP is united in Ondo,I want to say that is far from the truth.There is a sharp division in the PDP in the state.The old PDP members led by Oluwole Oke are not on the same page with the New PDP led by Mimiko.The Oluwole Oke's group has accused the Mimiko's group of sidelining them in the presidential campaign hence their resolve to prove a point that they were the ones that actually gave GEJ massive votes in 2011 and not Mimiko.They are ready to sit on the fence in the presidential election. Finally,your mentioning of the one fathom Justice Group(as one of the reasons GEJ will win in Lagos)is very laughable.Who is the leader of that group and what are the positions he has held before?In case you don't know:PDP died in Lagos State in 2011 when like of Demola Seriki(a Minister under Yaradua),Femi Pedro,Hon Salau(a political juggernault from Epe),Dr Wale Ahmed(PDP Publicity Secretary in Lagos),Lanre Rasak dumped the Umbrella for the A CN.Do you mean Bode George(who is the leader of the PDP and godfather of Jimi Agbaje) that has never won any election in his polling unit since 1999 will be the one that will mobilise for GEJ?Or Ogunlewe who since leaving the AD(the platform on which he was voted as a senator in 1999) and pitching his tent with the PDP has never delivered his Ikorodu local government to the PDP before?Or Musiliu Obanikoro who the last election he won was in 2003 (on the platform of the Tinubu's Alliance for Democracy?).I am waiting...patiently...

mandarin:
Barcanista good evening. You have your points as every group matters in politics but the question is, to what extent.

Let's look at 3scenario:
1. The siting governor winning his state for his party that means Jonathan wins in Ondo and Ekiti states and Buhari wins in Lagos, Ogun, Oyo, and Osun states.This depend on if the people believe in the sitting governor and if he actually has touched people's lives and they feel they can trust him with their votes.
2. When voters decide to vote for candidates, then Yoruba are caught betwix a sitting president that had not included Yoruba in the core of his government, had abused them and their leaders and a candidate known for integrity and honesty but also a military dictator. Yoruba don't admire Hausa/Fulani politically.
3. When electorates chose to vote based on economic realities, contributions to the progress of the Yoruba country and economic prosperity. The Yoruba are faced by a government accused of wasting billions of dollars and the current economic realities are not in favor of the region or its people. Their children constituted the bulk of personnel that lost their income source in blue chip companies to a Buhari whose only image is just a get away from Jonathan.

Which of these three is likely to influence voters? The three.

Yoruba voters are at this time the most difficult to predict for the following reasons :

1. The influence of Godfatherism is waning, events of the last two years are testimonies. While your Godfather can help you scale through primary election, they cannot dictate who will win in the general election.
2. The political blocs as elders' council, chiefs, kings and cultural groups aren't as strong as before. Afenifere do not presently have any governor installed by them nor any King, the people have simply moved beyond that level.
3. The economic impacts of government policies on the source of livelihood of the people and ripple effects in the country sides.

Based on our academic research on the public opinion on the Presidential and Gubernatorial election in Lagos state recently, Buhari won by a landslide winning over 80%. Now that may have changed between then and now but, in Lagos state, the most enlightened state in Nigeria, economic reasons is the most influential reason for voter's decision and its two edged sword; it will work for Buhari in the Presdential election as people feel the economic progress of the country is abysmal. It is also the reason for the about 38% of population that said they would vote for PDP in Lagos due to economic policies of the APC.
Because the research is pure academic and its ownership isn't me, I wont tell you more.
Barcanista, please come back and challenge me after the election if its free and fair in the southwest, APC will win the presidential election in Lagos(above 56%),Ogun, Osun and Oyo. Ekiti and Ondo are subject to various influences and especially Ekiti is unsure for anyone because the mind of those people is hard to decipher.
Now, the turnout for the election itself wont be as large as expected especially if threats of violence etc persist. Lets put it at 70% for those with Pvc already, now that's a minus for both Jonathan and Buhari. It is expected that those that will vote in Lagos may not exceed 2.5million while Osun, Ogun and Oyo may have higher turn outs per eligible voters.
For those you said will work for Jonathan or the PDP like SDP and LP, there is a good authority that it will work against such parties as the election to the Federal Assembly is on the same day, its like throwing all they have into the wind, I know of SDP that has secretly jettison that because it wont favor its candidates especially among rural voters.
So what do you think Barcanista, before the coming of GEJ to romance OPC how much mobilization did OPC do among their rather factionalized groups?
Am not a politician but an analyst and i don't work for any group, but in a free and fair election coming 28th, Buhari carries the day in the Southwest by at least 60%. Turn out may be low ,in Ekiti and Ondo states may be like 67% of eligible voters.

What will determine who will win the election id the bulk of voters in the North who have all the time in this world to go out there and queue for hours in order to see their icon win the election. Please give Buhari over 27miilion there. The question is if Southeast and Southsouth can match that strength.

anepete:
I am from a family of 10 and I am from they north. by the grace of Allah Jonathan will get our block vote. becau he has done for the North what the Northern past president could not do for the North .

mrmetoo1:
Ah Barcanista!! Pls stop fooling yourself in public. APC is going to lose Ogun?!?! My guy pls go and face your SS brothers, you know absolutely nothing.

taharqa:
The same way you talkative Tinubu-Yorubas (a tiny mibority) told us that everybody you knew were voting for APC in Ekiti, and that they hated Fayose the thug. What happened on election day??
Una eyes go soon clear. It's just less than 2 weeks away.

By the way, the Yorba have NEVER voted a northerner as President when there was an opposing SOUTHERN candidate. NEVER. And it isn't going to start now

barcanista:
bros, the way the APC make it appear that Yoruba nation is their conquered territory is insulting to the entire Yoruba race. Most Yoruba leaders are not even favorable to GMB but Jonathan. I wonder when Tinubu became the overlord of the Yoruba race that his followers have taken his position to be that of the Good people of Yoruba nation when facts on ground proved otherwise. Their propaganda won't sell

Akshow:
Dan kutuma gutsun uwarka. daga ina a north ne kazo?

SeverusSnape:
Pained mofo,

why didn't you reply the last paragraph??...

You know you're not a southwesterner,

you're a Northerner under the Fulani emirate,

So you're just like me a non-southwesterner,

Southwesterner wannabe

barcanista:
There is something called self-deception. The problem with APC is that the party isn't sincere to itself. Your comment is a typical example of self-deception.

Scatterboss:
Olodo. Ribadu that cleared Osun in 2011 is from Southeast. Sit in your cybercafe and be posting jargons.

7lives:
Yoruba are peace loving people, they will develop instant hatred for anyone perceived as trying to destroy their peace.
This is why whoever is encouraing violence and shenanigans in pdp is only destroying jona's chances at the polls. The damage done in Oshodi is gradually sinking in, those who want to vote to pdp are changing their minds 'cause they felt like a vote for pdp is a vote for anarchy.Let them continue to terrorize people in the name of campaign and protest, people are waiting for march 28 to reply pdp for all the assault on Yoruba sensibilities.

CaptainAmerica1:

mandarin:
Barcanista good evening. You have your points as every group matters in politics but the question is, to what extent.

Let's look at 3scenario:
1. The siting governor winning his state for his party that means Jonathan wins in Ondo and Ekiti states and Buhari wins in Lagos, Ogun, Oyo, and Osun states.This depend on if the people believe in the sitting governor and if he actually has touched people's lives and they feel they can trust him with their votes.
2. When voters decide to vote for candidates, then Yoruba are caught betwix a sitting president that had not included Yoruba in the core of his government, had abused them and their leaders and a candidate known for integrity and honesty but also a military dictator. Yoruba don't admire Hausa/Fulani politically.
3. When electorates chose to vote based on economic realities, contributions to the progress of the Yoruba country and economic prosperity. The Yoruba are faced by a government accused of wasting billions of dollars and the current economic realities are not in favor of the region or its people. Their children constituted the bulk of personnel that lost their income source in blue chip companies to a Buhari whose only image is just a get away from Jonathan.

Which of these three is likely to influence voters? The three.

Yoruba voters are at this time the most difficult to predict for the following reasons :

1. The influence of Godfatherism is waning, events of the last two years are testimonies. While your Godfather can help you scale through primary election, they cannot dictate who will win in the general election.
2. The political blocs as elders' council, chiefs, kings and cultural groups aren't as strong as before. Afenifere do not presently have any governor installed by them nor any King, the people have simply moved beyond that level.
3. The economic impacts of government policies on the source of livelihood of the people and ripple effects in the country sides.

Based on our academic research on the public opinion on the Presidential and Gubernatorial election in Lagos state recently, Buhari won by a landslide winning over 80%. Now that may have changed between then and now but, in Lagos state, the most enlightened state in Nigeria, economic reasons is the most influential reason for voter's decision and its two edged sword; it will work for Buhari in the Presdential election as people feel the economic progress of the country is abysmal. It is also the reason for the about 38% of population that said they would vote for PDP in Lagos due to economic policies of the APC.
Because the research is pure academic and its ownership isn't me, I wont tell you more.
Barcanista, please come back and challenge me after the election if its free and fair in the southwest, APC will win the presidential election in Lagos(above 56%),Ogun, Osun and Oyo. Ekiti and Ondo are subject to various influences and especially Ekiti is unsure for anyone because the mind of those people is hard to decipher.
Now, the turnout for the election itself wont be as large as expected especially if threats of violence etc persist. Lets put it at 70% for those with Pvc already, now that's a minus for both Jonathan and Buhari. It is expected that those that will vote in Lagos may not exceed 2.5million while Osun, Ogun and Oyo may have higher turn outs per eligible voters.
For those you said will work for Jonathan or the PDP like SDP and LP, there is a good authority that it will work against such parties as the election to the Federal Assembly is on the same day, its like throwing all they have into the wind, I know of SDP that has secretly jettison that because it wont favor its candidates especially among rural voters.
So what do you think Barcanista, before the coming of GEJ to romance OPC how much mobilization did OPC do among their rather factionalized groups?
Am not a politician but an analyst and i don't work for any group, but in a free and fair election coming 28th, Buhari carries the day in the Southwest by at least 60%. Turn out may be low ,in Ekiti and Ondo states may be like 67% of eligible voters.

What will determine who will win the election id the bulk of voters in the North who have all the time in this world to go out there and queue for hours in order to see their icon win the election. Please give Buhari over 27miilion there. The question is if Southeast and Southsouth can match that strength.

egift:
Here is my take:
- Buhari will have the majority votes from the SW.
- Both the APC and PDP will have at least the required 25% from each state in the SW, unlike what happened in 2011.
- In Governorship, APC will retain Lagos and Ogun. Ekiti and Osun is not in contention. Oyo and Ondo too close to call.

In summary, Buhari is the next President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria.

stronger:
Hahaha. . I DEY LAUGH o. Some people just refuse to feel the pulse of the streets or they are just deceiving themselves!

The OPC reign of terror today should tell barcanista and co that GEJ has seen defeat CLEARLY!!!! SO they want to intimidate lagosians to NOT come out to vote! Same way they were using a FAKE BOKO HARM FLYER to tell people to not come out for elections in the North. . lol. . baby tactics!

Chigold101:
please dont change your monicker when GEJ would have won. Okay?

egift:
Before 2011, I was here and proudly support Buhari. It has nothing to do with the outcome, but strictly on what is best for Nigeria. If it is about money, we all know guy that is begging people to collect dollars.

For better leadership in Nigeria, it is Sai Buhari all the way!

taharqa:
I said the Yorba, MUMUU. I never said I sun or any one state.

FACT : The SW has NEVER voted for a northern candidate as long as there is a southern opponent since the beginning of elections in Nigeria. And they are not about to start it now.

If this truth bothers you, you can go and kill yourself b4 March 28th o. Though I don't advice that you do

Scatterboss:
Olodo. Ribadu that cleared Osun in 2011 is from Southeast. Sit in your cybercafe and be posting jargons.

Rilwayne001:
You are as f0olish as the OP.

Firstly, the OP is not a southwesterner, he is someone like you who is licking the butt of jonaTAN, I am living in Ibada, Oyo state, and i can tell that his analysis of the Accord party, SDP and Labour party is nothing but fallacy.

Secondly, Labour Party didnt endorse jonaTAN https://www.nairaland.com/2198489/labour-party-those-endorsedjonathan-impostors.

I will implore you to come down here to see for yourselve who the people are mostly talking about here. Judt yesterday night, a friend called me to asked who I will be voting for, this my fruend is a staunch christians and he has decided to vote buhari, he said he has beencallibg his relations and friends to vote buhari and that most of those he had called habe already decidedto vote buhari.

I won't bother engage myaelf with the moronic OP, he is doing the work he is beeen paid for.

March 28 is around the corner, you will surely regain your senses by march30.

mrmetoo1:
We've heard Jonathan will win southwest. All those groups will come into my house and tell us to vote GEJ. I'll keep saying this, I'm Yoruba and none of my family members are voting GEJ. I don't know a family friend as well, not a single colleague and I'm not exaggerating. I'm sitting in one of our consultant's office as we speak, he's an Ekiti man. He's actually consulting for the university in Otuoke and even he is not supporting GEJ.

After those groups influence the people around them, who else is voting GE

That your friend from ekiti is a true Yoruba man. He is feeding off good lucks transformation yet waiting patiently to stab him at the back. Traitors. I never trust a Yoruba man.

Then you're proud that GEJ got OPC's endorsement, I laugh at these non-Yorubas in Lagos and southwest.

If GEJ has regular Yoruba supporters apart from all these groups and beneficiaries, they must be very ashamed of their support because I haven't met them.

beetruth:
Osun won't waste their votes on anything aregbe or APC totally again. The lies are beginning to see the light.
March 28 will be very shocking for some people. Can't wait
#neveragain
Fool people once they are the fool but twice you are the fool

Scatterboss:
You dont need to argue with them. Someone living far away Ebonyi will come here to boast on how GEJ will win the whole SW, but they will curse you when you remind them that supporters of Rochas and co will also vote for Buhari.

PDP can never win Lagos and Ogun, I dont know much about Oyo state gubernatorial. Yorubas can vote for different candidate on different levels, they did same in 2011 by voting GEJ at the Presidential and voting ACN at the state level. GNI of Ogun PDP will loose woefully just like in 2011, everyone knows he is OGD puppet and thats the problem. They all see OGD as a thief that only empowered frat men while in power, so voting for GNI is like bringing OGD back to power. As for Lasgidi, PDP will also fail woefully. Market women, civil servants, Agbero, and other hidden influence i wont talk about will work for APC. I dont know how OPC(mostly illiterate) will influence votes in Lagos and other SW states.