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Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) - Politics - Nairaland

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Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by Nobody: 3:53pm On Mar 16, 2015
How true is the phrase "Yoruba won't vote Jonathan"?

The political terrain of the South West is controlled/shared among the Social Democratic Party, Accord Party, All Progressive Congress, People's Democratic Party and the usual dark horse Labour Party. The SDP, PDP, Accord and LP are queuing behind the re-election of President Jonathan. Only the APC is with Muhammadu Buhari. While the SDP and Accord may sound like a lightweight to some readers, indices on ground shows otherwise. A Look at the present political fortunes of pro-Jonathan parties in the SW..

Social Democratic Party
The SDP led by Olu Falae and Osoba is more prominent in Ogun State. All 3 Senators from the state are members of SDP. The party also boasts of 5 out of 9 House of Reps delegation from Ogun state(2 each for PDP and APC), the Deputy Governor, former cabinet members of Amosun, and some state legislators. In other words, neither the APC nor the PDP can boast of any incumbent Senator from Ogun State. SDP is also very prominent in Oyo State with Mr Makinde, a popular millionaire leading its rank. The party is queuing behind Jonathan in the Presidential poll.

Accord Party
Accord Party is more formidable in Oyo State, especially Ibadan. Of the three Senators from Oyo, two(2) are of Accord Party, the other is a PDP man. The party led by the popular charismatic former Governor Ladoja is the leading party for the Oyo State Guber election. As long as Oyo is concerned, Accord Party is a force to be reckoned with. The party is queuing behind Jonathan in the Presidential poll

Labour Party
Labour Party is the usual dark horse in Yoruba politics since 2007. It is prominent in Oyo, Ekiti, Ondo and Ogun States. In Oyo State, it is led by exGovernor Alao Akala who is the Governorship candidate. Akala's stronghold is his Ogbomoso town. The party is also relatively popular in Oyo town and Ibadan of the state. The party is queuing behind Jonathan in the Presidential poll

People's Democratic Party
Peoples' Democratic Party arose from its 2011 misfortune/near extinction to become a force again in 2015. No thanks to the division of its party in Oyo, Ekiti, Lagos and Ogun States. Fortunately for the party, they are now united in Lagos(for the first time since 2006), Ogun State (after 5 years of division), Ekiti and Ondo States(after almost one year of division). In other words, the party is participating in 2015 as a united team- except in Oyo state. In Ogun State, the PDP boasts of two Reps members and about 10 State legislators. In Oyo state, it boasts of one senate seat. In Ekiti, it recently won the Governorship election in all 16 LGA. In Ondo State, the defection of Governor Mimiko and two Senators from the State means a lot to the party. Though it almost caused rift among members of the State chapter of the party. In Lagos state, for the first time since 2005, the party is working together as a team. Jonathan is the PDP Candidate.

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Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by SeverusSnape(m): 3:54pm On Mar 16, 2015
barcanista!!!

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Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by Nobody: 3:54pm On Mar 16, 2015
Afenifere And OPC Favor Jonathan
The endorsement of Jonathan's candidacy by the influential pan Yoruba group Afenifere and O'dua Peoples' Congress will in no small way influence the voting pattern of their members-most of whom are grassroot people. Otunba Gani Adams, National Coordinator, OPC said, “we took time to study the situation of things and we took time to look at the capacity of the candidates involved. I won’t deceive you, from the National Coordinating Council, we have decided to inform our followers that they should vote for President Jonathan.”

The National leader of OPC Chief Fedrick Fasheun had earlier threw his support behind the re-election bid of President Jonathan.

However, another influential group, The Yoruba Council of Elders refused to publicly endorse any of the candidates.

A Look at APC:
No doubt, APC controls 4 out of the Six government houses in the SW as at today, but the party has seen a huge dip in its political fortune in the region. One of the factor that helped the party to win Oyo and Ogun States in 2011 was the heavy factionalisaton within the PDP. Today, the APC in Ogun has had a major split with the SDP coming out a very strong beneficiary taking all Senators. The PDP in Ogun State is united. The APC also lost ALL their Senators in Oyo state, they can't boast of any today- though they gained a Senator in Ondo. In Lagos State, the influential Justice Group left the APC for the PDP. In Ekiti State, the APC was rejected in 2014. In Osun where it hold sway, the anger of civil servants over delay in payment of five(5) months salary may reflect at the Presidential poll. In Ondo State, the APC is not a force as it has little or no structure on ground.

Conclusion
With the Leading parties in the SW and two highly influential groups queuing behind the President's re-election, it is safe to say that the Yoruba nation favors President Jonathan, while the APC candidate Gen Buhari plays second fiddle. Though it won't be fair to write off APC from the political calculation of the SW, yet it will amount to misinformation to say the APC is in control of the region.


God Bless The Yoruba Nation
God Bless Nigeria
God Bless President Jonathan
President 2010-2019

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Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by SeverusSnape(m): 3:54pm On Mar 16, 2015
That's what I've been saying, How can one say "Yorubas won't vote Jonathan", That's a myopic statement.
This is what I've been telling Rilwayne001, But he's there in Dreamland. He thinks all Yorubas are Tinubu slave...
A masterpiece from barcanista, More grease to your elbows.

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Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by Nobody: 3:55pm On Mar 16, 2015
Masterpiece, well researched.

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Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by steppin: 3:56pm On Mar 16, 2015
"Yoruba won't vote Jonathan" is a phrase coined in by APC to make it look like all yorubas are voting for Buhari/Osinbade.
Some people still believe Buhari is not the messiah, regardless of how much the APC condemn GEJ.
But with a massive propaganda and a campaign smeared with lies,, the APC almost fooled Nigerians into voting for a man who got no clue on how to make the "change".
Even the honest Jega was compromised.
Infact I no write again, APC matter don tire me.
GEJ till 2019

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Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by egift(m): 3:58pm On Mar 16, 2015
Here is my take:
- Buhari will have the majority votes from the SW.
- Both the APC and PDP will have at least the required 25% from each state in the SW, unlike what happened in 2011.
- In Governorship, APC will retain Lagos and Ogun. Ekiti and Osun is not in contention. Oyo and Ondo too close to call.

In summary, Buhari is the next President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria.

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Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by ozoigbondu: 3:58pm On Mar 16, 2015
Another masterpiece South west votes will be spilt.Ignore all these yourba touts bogging down here with their numerous monikers paid by APC to make noise here.The real yourbas on ground knows that GEJ is the man

Meanwhile GEJ till 2019

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Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by garrix8: 3:59pm On Mar 16, 2015
Obviously..

Keep counting 419 Endorsements sold to Jonadunce. The guy is a Federal mumu and he is being conned left, right and centre...

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Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by 1wolex85: 4:00pm On Mar 16, 2015
Looking at the cup half full.

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Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by Nobody: 4:02pm On Mar 16, 2015
garrix8:
Obviously..

Keep counting 419 Endorsements sold to Jonadunce. The guy is a Federal mumu and he is being conned left, right and centre...
There is something called self-deception. The problem with APC is that the party isn't sincere to itself. Your comment is a typical example of self-deception.

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Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by Nobody: 4:07pm On Mar 16, 2015
ozoigbondu:
Another masterpiece South west votes will be spilt.Ignore all these yourba touts bogging down here with their numerous monikers paid by APC to make noise here.The real yourbas on ground knows that GEJ is the man

Meanwhile GEJ till 2019
The truth is that the APC sympathisers on social media are quick to assume and insinuate that the SW is a lockdown for APC and Buhari. The truth is that Goodluck Jonathan will triumph in the region. I don't even know how the APC intend to do it or on what basis they based their argument. They have lost ground in Ogun State, Oyo State, Ekiti State and are not in contention in Ondo State. In Lagos State, they are facing a United PDP, aggrived APC members and of course there is the OPC influence. I am not even talking about other influential non Yoruba groups

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Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by 7lives: 4:08pm On Mar 16, 2015
Boya le mo, meaning if only you guys knows that jona will not even get 10% of SW votes.
E don tey Wey yansh dey back, te ba so obe soke ni igba igba, ibi pelebe Lo ma fi le ile.
Iye le o ma wo, e o to eye e ri. The more you guys look, the less you see.

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Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by OrlandoOwoh(m): 4:10pm On Mar 16, 2015
As I always say, go to any newspaper stand in the South West. The argument you hear from the men there is an indication that Jonathan will most likely lose in the geo-political zone. Even on our campuses among youths and students, the story is the same.

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Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by gists: 4:11pm On Mar 16, 2015
hahaha
Why worry now March 28 is just twelve (12) days away grin grin grin

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Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by kokoA(m): 4:11pm On Mar 16, 2015
Nonsense Analysis.. Presidential election has nothing to do with political parties. So are you trying to tell me GEJ will win states like Bauchi, Kaduna, Gombe, etc that have PDP government and strong PDP presence at national and state assemblies? The people will choose who to vote. The word on the lips of the yorubas now is "CHANGE" and there is nothing GEJ can do about it.. Which right thinking yoruba person will vote a government that has offered them nothing over a party that has given them a vice presidential slot? Those parties you mentioned may win in some seats in the national and state assemblies but nobody would vote GEJ because SDP, LP or Accord say so.

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Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by stronger: 4:12pm On Mar 16, 2015
Nice attempt.

Few points:

(1) Bola Ige said the Yorubas are about 50 years more educationally advanced than the rest of the country. This plays a part in the level of "awareness" and lack of ignorance. What am I trying to say, The yorubas are SMART and will ask themselves WHO IS THE RIGHT CANDIDATE! So I insist that they will not follow one party like a bunch of sheep led to slaughter. They will think for themselves. So your party analyses falls apart when you assume because Accord, SPD or LP say so, yorubas will follow. . lol

(2) Unfortunately Ethnicity and "What has he done for us" still plays a part in Nigerian politics. I say "unfortunately" because the choice of a leader should not be about what he did for ME but what he did for us. That said, most Nigerians still feel that way. Bros, go to the streets and feel the pulse. THE YORUBAS feel very SHORTCHANGED by the GEj Admin. You ca take that to the bank!! And they intend to reciprocate in the elections. . which takes me to point (3)

(3) The Osibanjo effect. This is one of the reasons why Amaechi or Oshiomole did not emerge as VP. Of course the main reason is that Tinubu who is the brain behind ACN and the APC merger had to have a "stake". But because they knew they needed a yoruba vote, they made sure the VP is a YORUBA man! You don't seem to consider this in your analyses. The OUR SON effect (Which GEJ is banking on in Rivers/Delta/Bayelsa) is going to work for Osibanjo, at least to an extent.

(4) The last point I will raise is the OPC/AFENIFERE angle! Wait let me laugh. . grin grin grin grin grin grin grin grin grin

This is where you ruined your analyses!!!

The influence of OPC?? Afenifere?!!! Bwahahahahaahah!!

In fact, I won't say much on this except, have you seen the OUTRAGE that has met the current VANDALISATION/PROTESTS of the OPC in Lagos!!! I personally know over 50 people who have switched sides simply because of this action!! Big mistake to think the HATED OPC will get GEj any votes. Wait let me laugh again. . grin grin grin grin grin grin grin

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Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by WisdomFlakes: 4:15pm On Mar 16, 2015
I don laff tire grin grin grin

At least you are entitled to your opinion, even when it's DEAD WRONG. cheesy

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Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by Nobody: 4:16pm On Mar 16, 2015
7lives:
Boya le mo, meaning if only you guys knows that jona will not even get 10% of SW votes.
E don tey Wey yansh dey back, te ba so obe soke ni igba igba, ibi pelebe Lo ma fi le ile.
Iye le o ma wo, e o to eye e ri. The more you guys look, the less you see.
You people can be funny. "GEJ will not get 10% of SW"... That's a very funny one. Maybe you don't understand, politics is about the grassroot. Who is who backing a candidate. I don't know on what basis you are premising your judgement. Perhaps you assume that the people of SW are under the control of Bola Tinubu and APC? Wake up...

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Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by mrmetoo1: 4:16pm On Mar 16, 2015
We've heard Jonathan will win southwest. All those groups will come into my house and tell us to vote GEJ. I'll keep saying this, I'm Yoruba and none of my family members are voting GEJ. I don't know a family friend as well, not a single colleague and I'm not exaggerating. I'm sitting in one of our consultant's office as we speak, he's an Ekiti man. He's actually consulting for the university in Otuoke and even he is not supporting GEJ.

After those groups influence the people around them, who else is voting GEJ?

Then you're proud that GEJ got OPC's endorsement, I laugh at these non-Yorubas in Lagos and southwest.

If GEJ has regular Yoruba supporters apart from all these groups and beneficiaries, they must be very ashamed of their support because I haven't met them.

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Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by PriceOfGarri(m): 4:20pm On Mar 16, 2015
barcanista:
....I am not even talking about other influential non Yoruba groups

APC downplays the great influence of these people.

I could hit them like a tsunami

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Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by WisdomFlakes: 4:20pm On Mar 16, 2015
double0seven:
Do some people still listen to this guy?

Only idiots will stand start debating anything with him.

We have to treat him with a bit of understanding. He needs to repeatedly convince himself or rather delude himself into believing that he made the right choice of jumping ship in the middle of battle. It's easy to see that he's narcissistic and loves being the center of attention.

In his mind, GEJ has already won, even when the facts on ground prove otherwise. How do you begin to argue with such a person? Na serious Gobe/one chance you go enter be dat coz he go out-debate you. cheesy

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Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by Ngwakwe: 4:20pm On Mar 16, 2015
The unfortunate insinuation that GEJ will lose the region is from vocal minority and PVC-less Southwest social critics who have taken the media sessions to accuse their fathers, traditional authorities, religious leaders, OPC and Afanifere, of moral bankruptcy, accepting bribe and sell out.

The attitude of these sects makes me to wonder if they know the implications of their statements and the possibility of other nationalites concluding that Southwesterners are by extension what they accused their elders and traditional authorities of exhibiting.

For me I have learnt to ignore these minors and their frustrations. I can't imagine Ngwakwe disrespecting and abusing my elders because of political differences.

From every indication, Jonathan has Southwest in his bags for 2015 presidential elections - Fact

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Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by ozoigbondu: 4:21pm On Mar 16, 2015
barcanista:
The truth is that the APC sympathisers on social media are quick to assume and insinuate that the SW is a lockdown for APC and Buhari. The truth is that Goodluck Jonathan will triumph in the region. I don't even know how the APC intend to do it or on what basis they based their argument. They have lost ground in Ogun State, Oyo State, Ekiti State and are not in contention in Ondo State. In Lagos State, they are facing a United PDP, aggrived APC members and of course there is the OPC influence. I am not even talking about other influential non Yoruba groups
APC has done a wonderful job in the media.Whoever handles their media team knows his onions and deserves an award but if one takes a look at the reality on ground he will know that APC is seriously shaking in the SW.Fayose bombshell in ekiti is one and i don't believe that fayose won cos of that ekiti gate.Osun state is another one omisore did very well there destroying the myth that APC.GEJ will win in lagos am 100% sure of that.

Fayose hate him or like him is a grassroot politican he will deliever ekiti state to jonathan

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Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by Nobody: 4:21pm On Mar 16, 2015
steppin:
"Yoruba won't vote Jonathan" is a phrase coined in by APC to make it look like all yorubas are voting for Buhari/Osinbade.
Some people still believe Buhari is not the messiah, regardless of how much the APC condemn GEJ.
But with a massive propaganda and a campaign smeared with lies,, the APC almost fooled Nigerians into voting for a man who got no clue on how to make the "change".
Even the honest Jega was compromised.
Infact I no write again, APC matter don tire me.
GEJ till 2019
APC is good at making statement that isn't backed with fact. The party is desperate. If you endorse Jonathan, they will say you have been given millions of dollars. That their blackmail is what will work against them. When you accuse somebody without evidence/fact, you make others to be scared of you. In the SW, the APC may control 4 government houses but they play catchup in 4 states at present.

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Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by mrmetoo1: 4:22pm On Mar 16, 2015
barcanista:
You people can be funny. "GEJ will not get 10% of SW"... That's a very funny one. Maybe you don't understand, politics is about the grassroot. Who is who backing a candidate. I don't know on what basis you are premising your judgement. Perhaps you assume that the people of SW are under the control of Bola Tinubu and APC? Wake up...

I'm sorry where's the evidence the grassroot is supporting Jonathan?? Dude my security man is grassroots if we have to categorize, he's from one of those villages in Oyo, he said that in his village that it's Buhari all the way. Don't let all these group "leaders" fool you, people are genuinely tired of GEJ and his mp3 transformation.

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Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by WisdomFlakes: 4:24pm On Mar 16, 2015
mrmetoo1:
We've heard Jonathan will win southwest. All those groups will come into my house and tell us to vote GEJ. I'll keep saying this, I'm Yoruba and none of my family nerves are voting GEJ. I don't know a family friend as well, not a single colleague and I'm not exaggerating. I'm sitting in one of our consultant's office as we speak, he's an Ekiti man. He's actually consulting for the university in Otuoke and even he is not supporting GEJ.

After those groups influence the people around them, who else is voting GEJ?

Then you're proud that GEJ got OPC's endorsement, I laugh at these non-Yorubas in Lagos and southwest.

If GEJ has regular Yoruba supporters apart from all these groups and beneficiaries, they must be very ashamed of their support because I haven't met them.

In my personal experience as a south-westerner/Yoruba man with wide contacts across the land, I am yet to meet a single fellow Yoruba that supports Jonathan, and I am not exaggerating.

Perhaps his Yoruba supporters are too timid to defend him or express support for him publicly, or they are so few that they're almost non-existent.

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Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by Nobody: 4:27pm On Mar 16, 2015
kokoA:
Nonsense Analysis.. Presidential election has nothing to do with political parties. So are you trying to tell me GEJ will win states like Bauchi, Kaduna, Gombe, etc that have PDP government and strong PDP presence at national and state assemblies? The people will choose who to vote. The word on the lips of the yorubas now is "CHANGE" and there is nothing GEJ can do about it.. Which right thinking yoruba person will vote a government that has offered them nothing over a party that has given them a vice presidential slot? Those parties you mentioned may win in some seats in the national and state assemblies but nobody would vote GEJ because SDP, LP or Accord say so.
Perfect response. Nothing more to add

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Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by Nobody: 4:29pm On Mar 16, 2015
Obiagelli:

Perfect response. Nothing more to add
You're an eyesore

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Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by Ngwakwe: 4:30pm On Mar 16, 2015
Ngwakwe:
The unfortunate insinuation that GEJ will lose the region is from vocal minority and PVC-less Southwest social critics who have taken the media sessions to accuse their fathers, traditional authorities, religious leaders, OPC and Afanifere, of moral bankruptcy, accepting bribe and sell out.

The attitude of these sects makes me to wonder if they know the implications of their statements and the possibility of other nationalites concluding that Southwesterners are by extension what they accused their elders and traditional authorities of exhibiting.

For me I have learnt to ignore these minors and their frustrations. I can't imagine Ngwakwe disrespecting and abusing my elders because of political differences.

From every indication, Jonathan has Southwest in his bags for 2015 presidential elections - Fact

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Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by olapluto(m): 4:31pm On Mar 16, 2015
No need arguing with OP. 12 days time, things will be clearer. You have shown how much you understand politics in Yorubaland. Yoruba people will show you how much they understand politics with their votes.
Typical outsider who 'knows' SW from the pages of newspaper. Just to give you a clue:
In my house, there are 5 people with PVCs. All are voting APC for presidential, and Ladoja (3) for state governorship. Ajimobi(2 votes). Two of these 5 PVC holders are registered members of Accord Party.
Nowhere has Ladoja ever publicly or privately endorsed GEJ. He knows GEJ will make him lose his popular support.

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