₦airaland Forum

eliment:
I was so socked yesterday when a PDP supporter admitted Buhari will win if election holds.

Even the PDP knows GEJ has no chance of winning if the elections will be free, fear and credible.

Change in coming__ sai Buhari

bakila:
The book biggest challenge to this is the possibility of credible candidates in other political parties in the North affecting APC 's votes. Your permutations is right except to the extent that you make Benue a GEJ State. Benue is at best a swing state.

PapaBrowne:
The problem with your analysis is in the error of your assumptions.

First error is in placing Kaduna, Adamawa and Nasarawa firmly under Buhari.
Thats an apparent sign that you aren't in tune with Northern politics. You would have had a better analysis if you used historical data to support you postulations.
Kaduna is the best definition of a swing state. Two factors would count for GEJ: 1)Southern Kaduna. 2)The VP & the incumbent. In 2011, Kaduna gave GEJ 1.2m and GMB 1.3m. So lumping Kaduna in the same mould as Kano, Bauchi, Borno and the likes is an error already.
Nasarawa has an APC governor, but would have a PDP victory because of the Ethno Religious politics present in the state. Adamawa would be pretty close to call but a greater likelihood the PDP would hold sway.

Second error is in your swing states assumption. Edo & Taraba.
Edo is safe, very safe for PDP. In 2011, PDP won by a wide margin. At that time, Oshiomole was very popular. In 2015, Oshiomole has become so unpopular that he would lose an today to even to the very unpopular Igbinedion. So while Edo north would give Buhari some votes, majority of the votes would definitely go to PDP. Taraba is PDP and would give GEJ better margins than any state in the SW.

The best statistical analysis would come from lumping states with similar voting patterns together and according them percentage weights.
Better still, do a state by state run and award percentages based on both historical data and current realities.

PapaBrowne:
Hehe, you are funny!! First I'm from Edo state and not only do I visit the cities regularly I engage with ruralites there a lot in the course of my work. Jonathan would do better in Edo state than he would do in parts of Delta. Right now, Edo state hates APC more than PDP. Oshiomole's second tenure has been a gigantic disaster. Nothing, I repeat absolutely nothing is currently happening and the APC is in disarray in Edo state. Maybe you didn't notice but the only state Buhari didn't hold a rally in the entire country was Edo State. Edo North muslims would give Buhari some votes but the population there is the smallest in the state: less than 10%. Its going to be more like 70:30 in favour of Jonathan.

As per Southern Kaduna, your ignorance again is explicit. Igbos are not the majority inhabitants of Southern Kaduna state. Yes, a lot of Igbos dwell in the south of Kaduna city, but that is different from southern Kaduna state which constitutes almost half the population of the state and is dominated by Christians. Southern Kaduna will vote in the same pattern as Plateau and Taraba as these are the states where religious tensions are strongest.

PapaBrowne:
The bolded exposed the degree of your ignorance on Northern politics. Just to let you know, Northern Christians are much more likely to vote Jonathan than Niger Deltans. And the reason is not thier love for Jonathan but thier hatred for Fulani domination!

abduljabbar4:
I'm from kaduna state and I am telling you that even though southern Kaduna didn't like Buhari last year, they have now learnt their lessons. They have suffered the bomb blasts. The fake promises. Come and see for yourself. I swear they don't like pdp at all

PapaBrowne:
You dont seem to understand the mindset of your southern Kaduna neighbors. Its not about Jonathan for them, its about handing back power to what they see as their oppressors. Funnily and you might not know this, in the same way many Northern muslims see Jonathan as responsible for Boko Haram, many northern Christians(much more than southern christians) see Buhari as a supprter of Boko Haram. Its just the sad dynamics that have enveloped our politics. I genuinely wish Nigeria can get over this ethno religious voting patterns.

mandarin:
http://www.inecnigeria.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/REPORT-ON-PVC-COLLECTIONS-March-12-NET.xlsx

1 ABIA 1,396,162 1,177,520
2 ADAMAWA 1,559,012 1,381,571
3 AKWA-IBOM 1,680,759 1,587,566
4 ANAMBRA 1,963,173 1,658,967
5 BAUCHI 2,054,125 1,778,380
6 BAYELSA 610,373 546,372
7 BENUE 2,015,452 1,607,800
8 BORNO 1,934,079 1,407,777
9 CROSS RIVER 1,175,623 963,929
10 DELTA 2,275,264 1,921,627
11 EBONYI 1,074,273 848,392
12 EDO 1,779,738 1,218,734
13 EKITI 732,021 511,790
14 ENUGU 1,429,221 1,223,606
15 FCT 881,472 569,109
16 GOMBE 1,120,023 1,069,635
17 IMO 1,803,030 1,707,449
18 JIGAWA 1,831,276 1,756,320
19 KADUNA 3,407,222 3,174,519
20 KANO 4,975,701 4,112,039
21 KATSINA 2,827,943 2,620,096
22 KEBBI 1,470,648 1,372,630
23 KOGI 1,350,883 926,013
24 KWARA 1,142,267 884,996
25 LAGOS 5,822,207 3,767,647
26 NASARAWA 1,242,667 1,048,053
27 NIGER 2,014,317 1,682,058
28 OGUN 1,829,534 904,647
29 ONDO 1,524,655 1,110,844
30 OSUN 1,407,107 1,030,051
31 OYO 2,415,566 1,639,967
32 PLATEAU 2,001,825 1,508,585
33 RIVERS 2,537,590 2,127,837
34 SOKOTO 1,611,929 1,527,004
35 TARABA 1,340,652 1,270,889
36 YOBE 1,099,970 824,401
37 ZAMFARA 1,495,717 1,435,452
Total 68,833,476 55,904,272

I have been looking at the possible case scenario that can happen at the coming Presidential election next week based on the available data released by INEC as at 12th March 2015.
In all, 55,904,272 registered voters have collected their PVCs and let's look at some possibilities:
Lets take 80% voters' turnout across board which means we will take available figures as absolute voters per state although i foresee high, moderate and fair turn out across the states.

First : States according to the strength of each candidate - This is a general knowledge that ether candidates of PDP and the APC has their traditional states where they are strong and will capture at least 75% of votes cast.

JONATHAN
1. ABIA-1, 177,520
2. ENUGU-1,223,606
3. ANAMBRA -1,658,967
4. EBONYI - 848,392
5. IMO -1,707,449
6. RIVERS - 2,127,837
7. CROSS RIVER- 963,929
8. AKWA IBOM-1,587,566
9. BAYELSA-546,372
10. DELTA- 1,921627
11. BENUE- 1,607,800
12. 1,508,585
TOTAL - 16,879,650

BUHARI
1. SOKOTO-1,527,004
2. ZAMFARA- 1,435,452
3. KEBBI - 1,372,630
4. KATSINA- 2,620,096
5. NIGER- 1,682,058
6. KADUNA- 3,174,519
7. JIGAWA- 1,756,320
8. YOBE - 824,401
9. BORNO - 1,407,777
10. ADAMAWA- 1,381,571
11. BAUCHI-1,778,380
12. GOMBE - 1,069,635
13. NASARAWA-1,048,053
14. KANO- 4,112,039
15. KWARA - 884,996
TOTAL -26,074,931

SOME SOUTHWEST STATES
1. LAGOS - 3,767,647
2. OGUN - 904,647
3. OSUN - 1,030,051
4. OYO- 1,639,967
TOTAL - 7,342,312

SWING STATES
1. EDO -1,218,734
2. EKITI - 511,790
3. ONDO - 1,110,844
4. TARABA - 1,270,889
5. FCT - 569,109
6. KOGI - 926,013
TOTAL - 5,607,379

I have grouped these states according to the strength of each candidate. Now, many people will argue on these swing states but believe me both candidates have their strengths and weaknesses there which may compensate for each other. I will freeze some political factors and look at scenarios with these figures to see some possibilities.
1. if equal turn out is achieved across all states and voters vote according to strength of each candidate AND LETS SAY THE SWING STATES ARE SHARED 50% each include some southwest states as indicated above:

JONATHAN WINS = 16,879,650 + 3,671,156+2,803,689.5
= 23,354,495.5
BUHARI WINS = 26,074,931+3,671,156+2,803,689.5
= 32,549,776.5
VERDICT : BUHARI WINS outrightly

2. Supposing Jonathan has 25% of votes cast in Buhari's strong holds and Buhari has 10% in Jonathan's strongholds while Buhari wins 60% in some Southwest states and both share swing states 50-50 :

JONATHAN WINS =6,518,732.75+15,191, 685+2,936,934.8+2,803,689.5
= 27,451,042.05
BUHARI WINS = 19,556,198.25+1,687,965.5+4,405,387.2+2,803,689.5
= 28,453,240.45
BUHARI WINS by slim margin

3. Supposing Buhari wins 85% of votes cast in his strong areas, Jonathan win 90% in his own, Jonathan win majority in swing states say 60% and BUHARI wins 70% in some southwest states :
JONATHAN WINS = 3,911,239.65+15,191,685+3,364,427.4+2,202,693.6
= 24,670,045.65
BUHARI WINS = 31,234,226.35

A whole lots of scenario modeling can be done by you but realistically. If based on factors that can influence this election we can give
1. Buhari strong areas = between 80-90% of votes cast
2. Jonathan strong areas returning between 75-90% votes cast
3. Buhari wins at least 50% in some southwest states(realistically, he wont get less than 60%) of all votes cast
4. Jonathan and Buhari share swing states 50-50( Note, its not certain if Fayose's influence in Ekiti will matter, if it does, Jonathan wins but the total voting population is not sufficient to upturn results as Buhari is popular in Kogi and Taraba)

Low registration and PVC collection is not good for GEJ as pattern revealed Northerners can always endure long hours to vote unlike in the south where many wont do such thing.
Another factor is Lagos. THERE IS A STRONG INDICATION THAT OVER A MILLION PEOPLE MAY NOT VOTE FOR THE FOLLOWING REASONS
1. Some of registered voter actually registered close to their places of work and this affect a huge population of those that dwell in the outskirt towns of Ogun state
2. This is similarly going to affect alot of Igbo voters that registered close to their shops if they live far away means they wont be able to also vote.
3. Many Lagosians may not just vote anticipating violence or just indifference, sitting at home and watching television, this is where those who mobilized for registration in 2011 will likely have more votes.
Let me stop and read comments

ujoinme:
Keep calculating and analysing, Eye go clear you and APC when GEJ wins the election including most of the Northern states on March 28, While APC is busy campaigning on newspapers and on online platform, PDP is busy campaigning in the 774 LGA and wards doing the needful. Victory belong to hard workers not noise makers.

mandarin:
http://www.inecnigeria.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/REPORT-ON-PVC-COLLECTIONS-March-12-NET.xlsx

1 ABIA 1,396,162 1,177,520
2 ADAMAWA 1,559,012 1,381,571
3 AKWA-IBOM 1,680,759 1,587,566
4 ANAMBRA 1,963,173 1,658,967
5 BAUCHI 2,054,125 1,778,380
6 BAYELSA 610,373 546,372
7 BENUE 2,015,452 1,607,800
8 BORNO 1,934,079 1,407,777
9 CROSS RIVER 1,175,623 963,929
10 DELTA 2,275,264 1,921,627
11 EBONYI 1,074,273 848,392
12 EDO 1,779,738 1,218,734
13 EKITI 732,021 511,790
14 ENUGU 1,429,221 1,223,606
15 FCT 881,472 569,109
16 GOMBE 1,120,023 1,069,635
17 IMO 1,803,030 1,707,449
18 JIGAWA 1,831,276 1,756,320
19 KADUNA 3,407,222 3,174,519
20 KANO 4,975,701 4,112,039
21 KATSINA 2,827,943 2,620,096
22 KEBBI 1,470,648 1,372,630
23 KOGI 1,350,883 926,013
24 KWARA 1,142,267 884,996
25 LAGOS 5,822,207 3,767,647
26 NASARAWA 1,242,667 1,048,053
27 NIGER 2,014,317 1,682,058
28 OGUN 1,829,534 904,647
29 ONDO 1,524,655 1,110,844
30 OSUN 1,407,107 1,030,051
31 OYO 2,415,566 1,639,967
32 PLATEAU 2,001,825 1,508,585
33 RIVERS 2,537,590 2,127,837
34 SOKOTO 1,611,929 1,527,004
35 TARABA 1,340,652 1,270,889
36 YOBE 1,099,970 824,401
37 ZAMFARA 1,495,717 1,435,452
Total 68,833,476 55,904,272

I have been looking at the possible case scenario that can happen at the coming Presidential election next week based on the available data released by INEC as at 12th March 2015.
In all, 55,904,272 registered voters have collected their PVCs and let's look at some possibilities:
Lets take 80% voters' turnout across board which means we will take available figures as absolute voters per state although i foresee high, moderate and fair turn out across the states.

First : States according to the strength of each candidate - This is a general knowledge that ether candidates of PDP and the APC has their traditional states where they are strong and will capture at least 75% of votes cast.

JONATHAN
1. ABIA-1, 177,520
2. ENUGU-1,223,606
3. ANAMBRA -1,658,967
4. EBONYI - 848,392
5. IMO -1,707,449
6. RIVERS - 2,127,837
7. CROSS RIVER- 963,929
8. AKWA IBOM-1,587,566
9. BAYELSA-546,372
10. DELTA- 1,921627
11. BENUE- 1,607,800
12. 1,508,585
TOTAL - 16,879,650

BUHARI
1. SOKOTO-1,527,004
2. ZAMFARA- 1,435,452
3. KEBBI - 1,372,630
4. KATSINA- 2,620,096
5. NIGER- 1,682,058
6. KADUNA- 3,174,519
7. JIGAWA- 1,756,320
8. YOBE - 824,401
9. BORNO - 1,407,777
10. ADAMAWA- 1,381,571
11. BAUCHI-1,778,380
12. GOMBE - 1,069,635
13. NASARAWA-1,048,053
14. KANO- 4,112,039
15. KWARA - 884,996
TOTAL -26,074,931

SOME SOUTHWEST STATES
1. LAGOS - 3,767,647
2. OGUN - 904,647
3. OSUN - 1,030,051
4. OYO- 1,639,967
TOTAL - 7,342,312

SWING STATES
1. EDO -1,218,734
2. EKITI - 511,790
3. ONDO - 1,110,844
4. TARABA - 1,270,889
5. FCT - 569,109
6. KOGI - 926,013
TOTAL - 5,607,379

I have grouped these states according to the strength of each candidate. Now, many people will argue on these swing states but believe me both candidates have their strengths and weaknesses there which may compensate for each other. I will freeze some political factors and look at scenarios with these figures to see some possibilities.
1. if equal turn out is achieved across all states and voters vote according to strength of each candidate AND LETS SAY THE SWING STATES ARE SHARED 50% each include some southwest states as indicated above:

JONATHAN WINS = 16,879,650 + 3,671,156+2,803,689.5
= 23,354,495.5
BUHARI WINS = 26,074,931+3,671,156+2,803,689.5
= 32,549,776.5
VERDICT : BUHARI WINS outrightly

2. Supposing Jonathan has 25% of votes cast in Buhari's strong holds and Buhari has 10% in Jonathan's strongholds while Buhari wins 60% in some Southwest states and both share swing states 50-50 :

JONATHAN WINS =6,518,732.75+15,191, 685+2,936,934.8+2,803,689.5
= 27,451,042.05
BUHARI WINS = 19,556,198.25+1,687,965.5+4,405,387.2+2,803,689.5
= 28,453,240.45
BUHARI WINS by slim margin

3. Supposing Buhari wins 85% of votes cast in his strong areas, Jonathan win 90% in his own, Jonathan win majority in swing states say 60% and BUHARI wins 70% in some southwest states :
JONATHAN WINS = 3,911,239.65+15,191,685+3,364,427.4+2,202,693.6
= 24,670,045.65
BUHARI WINS = 31,234,226.35

A whole lots of scenario modeling can be done by you but realistically. If based on factors that can influence this election we can give
1. Buhari strong areas = between 80-90% of votes cast
2. Jonathan strong areas returning between 75-90% votes cast
3. Buhari wins at least 50% in some southwest states(realistically, he wont get less than 60%) of all votes cast
4. Jonathan and Buhari share swing states 50-50( Note, its not certain if Fayose's influence in Ekiti will matter, if it does, Jonathan wins but the total voting population is not sufficient to upturn results as Buhari is popular in Kogi and Taraba)

Low registration and PVC collection is not good for GEJ as pattern revealed Northerners can always endure long hours to vote unlike in the south where many wont do such thing.
Another factor is Lagos. THERE IS A STRONG INDICATION THAT OVER A MILLION PEOPLE MAY NOT VOTE FOR THE FOLLOWING REASONS
1. Some of registered voter actually registered close to their places of work and this affect a huge population of those that dwell in the outskirt towns of Ogun state
2. This is similarly going to affect alot of Igbo voters that registered close to their shops if they live far away means they wont be able to also vote.
3. Many Lagosians may not just vote anticipating violence or just indifference, sitting at home and watching television, this is where those who mobilized for registration in 2011 will likely have more votes.
Let me stop and read comments

PapaBrowne:
Hehe, you are funny!! First I'm from Edo state and not only do I visit the cities regularly I engage with ruralites there a lot in the course of my work. Jonathan would do better in Edo state than he would do in parts of Delta. Right now, Edo state hates APC more than PDP. Oshiomole's second tenure has been a gigantic disaster. Nothing, I repeat absolutely nothing is currently happening and the APC is in disarray in Edo state. Maybe you didn't notice but the only state Buhari didn't hold a rally in the entire country was Edo State. Edo North muslims would give Buhari some votes but the population there is the smallest in the state: less than 10%. Its going to be more like 70:30 in favour of Jonathan.

As per Southern Kaduna, your ignorance again is explicit. Igbos are not the majority inhabitants of Southern Kaduna state. [/b]Yes, a lot of Igbos dwell in the south of Kaduna city, but that is different from southern Kaduna state which constitutes almost half the population of the state and is dominated by Christians. Southern Kaduna will vote in the same pattern as Plateau and Taraba as these are the states where religious tensions are strongest.

abduljabbar4:
This is not 2011. We don't have any popular political party other than pdp and APC

eliment:
stop deceiving your self mister man, the handwriting is on the wall for everyone to see except those that want to be deceived by whatever sentiment.

That you are part of them is none of my business, all I need is power be taken away from this clueless man

maestroferddi:
I don't waste my time bandying issues with impressionable teenagers...

PapaBrowne:
Hehe, you are funny!! First I'm from Edo state and not only do I visit the cities regularly I engage with ruralites there a lot in the course of my work. Jonathan would do better in Edo state than he would do in parts of Delta. Right now, Edo state hates APC more than PDP. Oshiomole's second tenure has been a gigantic disaster. Nothing, I repeat absolutely nothing is currently happening and the APC is in disarray in Edo state. Maybe you didn't notice but the only state Buhari didn't hold a rally in the entire country was Edo State. Edo North muslims would give Buhari some votes but the population there is the smallest in the state: less than 10%. Its going to be more like 70:30 in favour of Jonathan.

As per Southern Kaduna, your ignorance again is explicit. Igbos are not the majority inhabitants of Southern Kaduna state. Yes, a lot of Igbos dwell in the south of Kaduna city, but that is different from southern Kaduna state which constitutes almost half the population of the state and is dominated by Christians. Southern Kaduna will vote in the same pattern as Plateau and Taraba as these are the states where religious tensions are strongest.

PapaBrowne:
You dont seem to understand the mindset of your southern Kaduna neighbors. Its not about Jonathan for them, its about handing back power to what they see as their oppressors. Funnily and you might not know this, in the same way many Northern muslims see Jonathan as responsible for Boko Haram, many northern Christians(much more than southern christians) see Buhari as a supprter of Boko Haram. Its just the sad dynamics that have enveloped our politics. I genuinely wish Nigeria can get over this ethno religious voting patterns.

dmyke:
Can't see Jonathan getting less than 90% of the votes in the SE (at least I'm pretty sure about Anambra). Even APC candidates for the National Assembly do not mention the name of Buhari when they hold their rallies.

Meanwhile, it seems the op is not really familiar with Northern Politics. The NW is very different from the NE, not to talk of NC. It shouldn't surprise anyone if Jonathan gets the majority of the votes in the NC.

maestroferddi:
This "otondo" probably has a degree in tomfoolery.

He was presupposing that Jonathan wouldn't do well in Kaduna because he fired a Agwai at Sure-P.

You may have to ask him which part of Kaduna does the replacement of Agwai hail from?


He probably does not know that most political leaders in Kaduna are in the PDP.
He will need to tell us which leader in Kaduna can match Ahmed Makarfi (ex-governor, fourth-time senator and one of the most active senators) in popularity. He also doesn't know that Sen Esther Nemadi, Andrew Yakubu are Kaduna indigenes.

He is premising his laughable calls on the excision of Agwai who at best is a settler in Southern Kaduna.

The most ridiculous has to be the assumption that Namadi Sambo has no clout in Kaduna politics. Our statistician is obviously carried away by the noises El-Rufai, a settler or non-Kaduna indigene is making. He forgot that Ramalan Yero is a sitting governor.

I will leave the case of the sizable non-indegenous population for another day...

abduljabbar4:
Don't forget naira value, corruption, fake promises and the rest. It will also cost Gej a lot of votes like mine. I wanted to vote for him at first even though I voted for Buhari last year

ujoinme:
Keep calculating and analysing, Eye go clear you and APC when GEJ wins the election including most of the Northern states on March 28, While APC is busy campaigning on newspapers and on online platform, PDP is busy campaigning in the 774 LGA and wards doing the needful. Victory belong to hard workers not noise makers.

stronger:
EDO STATE
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA. . .
CHEI!!! You just fell my hand! Did you say you are from Edo state?
Okay, let me point out some of your lies/inaccuracies/ignorance

(1) You said Buhari didn't do an Edo state Rally! The Edo state rally was THE BIGGEST RALLY, next to the Rivers rally! That was the popular rally that they had a money dressed in PDP costume! Chai, you just fell my hand. Oya see pictures - -

http://dailymail.com.ng/photos-buhariosinbajo-apc-2015-campaign-in-edo-state/
http://www.naij.com/375105-edo-state-receives-general-buharis-team.html

Can you see that it was huge? You don't really visit Edo that much do you? Oya be a man of honour, come back and admit your goof!

(2) You said the muslim population is less than 10%. . lol.. . False! I don't have a link for that but anyone who knows Edo well will easily disprove that. Let me leave that there.

Now you claim APC is hated more than PDP. Oya please carry out this exercise;
Go to the market square and shout: Long live Lucky igbinedion and aneneih!! Then the next day shout: Long live Oshio baba

Find out the one that will incur more wrath!

You also neglect the enormous goodwill that Oyegun, the APC National chairman enjoys! Haven't you noticed that in spite of the PDP campaign of calumny, they haven't been able to touch Oyegun (and Osibanjo)? check it out na. That man is well liked and is a solid grassroots man (former governor) so he will play a part!
I don't want to reveal much on why I know so much about Edo politics, but I have presented the facts to you. But I am still willing to leave it as a swing state like the intelligent OP did. We Pro-GMB folks always try to be realistic (eg Ekiti) but you guys tend to over believe in magic! I dey laugh o.

KADUNA STATE
Your response to this was even more hilarious I think you may have mistaken my response for another commentator.
Nowhere did I mention anything about Igbos.

But you neglected everything I said about;

(1) The empty stadium at the rally
(2) Sambo's UNPOPULARITY
(3) EL-RUFAI'S Popularity
(4) The Agwai effect.

And you say my ignorance is explicit?

I see you mentioned Kaduna christians. You must know that one of the most strategic moves the APC made was to choose PROFESSOR PASTOR OSIBANJO as the VP candidate! I doff my heart for that move. Jonathan was reported to have described it as "Osinbajo is my problem". That move singularly neutralised any SW/christian support for GEJ! pastor Adeboye is practically the most influencial and respected MOG in Nigeria/Africa. He described Osibanjo as "Someone you can give a job to do and go to sleep"!! And you think Kaduna christians won't remember that? You think they will instead vote for a "Christian" that has been running to obas and using OPC (With their jazz) to intimidate?


Anyway, please address the points I made and please please admit your goof about the Edo rally!

poundlander:
for your mind abi? today Buhari is having a town hall meeting, the other day Osibanjo is having a one-on-one meeting with community leaders, the next day Aisha Buhari and Osibanjo wife are touring the states to meet with their female colleagues. Fashola never cease campaigning for GMB in Lagos and you said they are not campaigning enough. if the opposition can do the above with the little time, i think they have tried enough. VICTORIA ASCERTA. SAI CHANGI

bakila:
In states like Taraba and Adamawa some formidable candidates have emerged from SDP and PDM, there supporters may abstain from the Presidential elections although PDM has adopted Buhari as their candidates.

maestroferddi:
Oga Kaduna omo nile, how do you explain the anti-Fulani sentiment in Southern Kaduna occasioned by the massive killing of kataf and southern Kaduna natives by Fulani herdsmen?

You guys amuse me...

maestroferddi:
I will not waste precious time addressing the sundry inanities above.

I will only address Edo State. From your submission, it is clear that you are not abreast with the goings-on in the state.

The Oba of Benin probably epitomises epicentre of Edo politics. You may have to explain the development last week when three crown princes including the heir apparent to the Benin stool publicly (telecast on NTA and other national TVs) defected to the PDP.

If there is a state that is APC in name but PDP at heart, that state is Edo. Oshiomhole knows that after his tenure that PDP will retake the state. I wouldn't want to bore readers with the groundswell of political heavyweights in Edo intent on humiliating Oshiomhole.

You may know George Osagie Ize-Iyamu, bookmark the name against the trajectory of Edo politics in the near future.

abduljabbar4:
Yeah agreed but they still support Buhari. Buhari didn't send these Fulani men and they don't reason like you people. They reason with SENSE