₦airaland Forum

Amya:
What an adult sees sitting down, a kid can't see standing up.

Kai...are you a witch? well i said same too. if i have to back I'll get it on my posts. Its a pity people didnt listen to us then. He is now learning on the job while the masses are suffering. Pls make sure you post that on every thread atleast once a day

When u hv a leader dat is so solw in tinkin....wat do u xpect frm him....
Evrytin abt dis country has bin slow since the coming of PMB
LET JST PRAY 4 THIS COUNTRY,God only will help US

FWJOBSNG:
President Muhammadu Buhari appears to be held captive by the fear of bold economic reforms and continues to be indifferent to sound economics, thus pushing Nigeria along a dark alley of power, foreign exchange and fuel shortages which threaten to throw the country into a recession.

Africa’s biggest economy has the continent’s largest gas reserves, yet suffers daily electricity blackouts, is the largest oil producer but is currently enmeshed in petrol shortages, has a huge market that should in theory attract investment flows but now deals with dollar shortages.

GDP growth has slowed considerably, the misery index is worsening and the non-performing loan situation of banks and creating a new pressure point in the economy as beleaguered firms fail to service their credit obligations.

In a note yesterday dated “one year after Nigeria’s elections”, Bank of America said, “approximately one year has passed since President Buhari was elected. Since then, the oil price has fallen by 32%, the equity market is down 26% and spreads on the 2023 Eurobond are 220bp higher. Policy uncertainty continues to weigh on the markets. The Naira peg is overshadowing some significant reforms that have been made.”

Analysts say behind all these problems is the fear of letting market forces allocate resources efficiently and a stubborn fixation on discredited government command and control policies.

“President Buhari must take responsibility for the results of his actions,” a senior investment banking source speaking anonymously, told BusinessDay.

“The government has to take some decisions promptly. Removal of FX controls has to be one and fuel subsidies have to go.”

Business sources say a recession (two consecutive quarters of negative growth) may be unavoidable for Nigeria due to the damage being done by ongoing energy and forex shortages and there is also the real likelihood of inflation ramping up to 12% this month say economists.

Signs of the slowdown are evident everywhere in the megacity of Lagos that drives most of Nigeria’s economic output.

International flights into the city are recording half filled seats; while imports that drive consumption were down by 9.2 percent last year, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), show.

The manufacturing sector contracted again in March, as the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) printed at 45.9 percent, according to a March 31 report from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). A reading below 50 indicates contraction.

Some 80,000 manufacturing jobs are set to disappear in Nigeria, mostly as a result of the President’s FX policies, according to the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI).

“Across manufacturing people are beginning to shut down. It is happening across the sector” said Babatunde Odunayo, a former CEO of Nigerian conglomerate Honeywell Group.

“Family owned businesses are shutting down,” Odunayo said.

President Buhari’s policy of pegging the naira at N199 per dollar has exacerbated inflation and unemployment as traders and retailers base prices on the black market rate hovering near N320/$1.

Nigeria’s inflation rose by 11.4 percent in February and its unemployment rate pushed into double digits at 10.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2015.

Economic growth dropped to 2.8 percent last year, the slowest since 1999 and will decelerate further to 2.3 percent in 2016, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said March 31.

By comparison, the World Bank forecasts that Kenya’s gross domestic product (GDP) would expand 5.9 percent in 2016 nearly double Nigeria’s expected growth rate.

Across the vast country, fuel queues are now the norm as the President refuses to deregulate prices, while blackouts have returned with a vengeance.

“Lower oil prices should provide an ideal backdrop to deal with the fuel subsidy regime. Subsidies benefit the rich (who consume more fuel) disproportionately,’’ said Razia Khan, Managing Director, and Chief Economist for Africa, at Standard Chartered Bank.

The dollar shortage is linked to the ongoing fuel shortage because most major oil marketers cannot source dollars to import products, leaving state owned NNPC as the only major importer.

This weekend, the President heads to China which has devalued its currency four times in the last one year but Buhari insists on holding the Naira at an artificial rate and fixing the pump price of petrol in Nigeria at N86.5 per litre, even as no one outside the main cities of Lagos and Abuja is able to get it to buy it at that price.

The latest PMS watch from the NBS shows that the average price Nigerians purchased PMS in January was N109.59 per litter.

Today, with the ongoing scarcity, the retail price has shot up astronomically, making nonsense of the government’s policy choices.

“It’s N1, 500 last price for five litres,” a black market dealer tells BusinessDay in Lagos.

The calculations come to N300 per litre or more than 240 percent above the Government official price.

Government interference in the upstream oil sector through price fixing for gas and NNPCs ineffectiveness and inability to finance its gas JV stakes has made the country with Africa’s largest gas reserves of about 187 trillion scf, unable to generate more than 5,000 Mw leading to daily blackouts.

Actual power generation for some time last week hit a low zero megawatts for the entire country of 180 million people.

Investors have fled Nigeria as a result of the confusion and flawed policy choices.

JPMorgan Chase and Barclays have taken Nigeria off their emerging market bond indices; while the country’s benchmark stock index (NSEASI) has returned negative 11.04 percent ytd with N1.094 trillion in market capitalisation wiped off.

http://www.financialwatchngr.com/2016/04/07/power-fx-fuel-shortages-cripple-nigeria-as-buharimonics-continues-to-fumble/

enlightenedmind:
Revenue from where now? And even when you get this money where will you refine the oil? NIGERIA HAS SO MANY PROBLEMS AND TRUST ME LIGHT AND FUEL IS NOT ONE OF THEM.

Haba! What are you saying? Solve electricity problem and you have solved 90% of Nigeria's problems. Go and find out.

enlightenedmind:
Let's be clear. FX is not crippling Nigeria it is crippling d dollar. Fuel has never been sold at the right price in did country bcoz PDP looters collect bribes from Western countries to use us milking cows. Don't know about light by I happy for the FX and Fuel. We must refine our own feul even if we have suffer we must refine it then sell.

Lol @crippling the dollar; D


oh lord *sighs*

forex,fuel and electricity our major problems in this country and the president is always away so how can he know our pain. this country is going into recession while they are busy witch hunting. GOD we need you Buhari cant save us

Bnladan:
NO REGRETS NO SURRENDER.
Even as I buy a litre of petroleum at N180 or more, I will
continue to endure.
Even as power generation drops, I will continue to believe that
things will get better.
Even as the exchange rate remains high, I will continue to
have faith in God believing that one day it shall be better.
Even as salary is not paid as at when due, I shall continue to
believe that this condition is not forever.
Even as the prices of food items and other commodities have
gone high, I will continue to have faith and confidence that
one day it shall become history.
I campaigned for CHANGE.
I voted for CHANGE.
I believe in CHANGE.
I so much believe that one day I will be counting the much
benefits of CHANGE.
# Istandfirmlywithbuhari #

this is really funny! why? We used to think you people believed things were getting better. Now I know this hunger is biting hard into the flesh of the zombies hahahaha...you listed that yourself? Please, continue to "continue to have faith" .This Is Hilarious

enlightenedmind:
Let's be clear. FX is not crippling Nigeria it is crippling d dollar. Fuel has never been sold at the right price in did country bcoz PDP looters collect bribes from Western countries to use us milking cows. Don't know about light by I happy for the FX and Fuel. We must refine our own feul even if we have suffer we must refine it then sell.

You don't just sit on the chair of your comfort zone and type trash from your freckle mind. Nigeria's economy has taken the path of recession due to poor economic policy and lack of knowledge. Yet, you continue to support a government that has lost control of the economy as declared by lie lie Muhammed. Comment is not by force.

enlightenedmind:
Let's be clear. FX is not crippling Nigeria it is crippling d dollar. Fuel has never been sold at the right price in did country bcoz PDP looters collect bribes from Western countries to use us milking cows. Don't know about light by I happy for the FX and Fuel. We must refine our own feul even if we have suffer we must refine it then sell.

zombie spotted.why are you this daft

enlightenedmind:
What are you even saying? God there is really no intelligent person in this country again. My dear. Buhari did not go to beg for loans, he asked for direct loans not through IMF to cut off the IMF routes that leave African countries destitute. He said he was not collecting IMF funds. And he has to find a way to get that money. Now the looted funds is what i am interested in. Nigerians are so lazy. You think your problem is light OR FUEL.

Please change your moniker from enlightenedmind to lazymind becuase
an enlightenedmind won't be brainwashed into believing useless conspiracy theories.
Having a siege mentality has never helped anyone, it is associated with chronic
depression and hopelessness.

Light and fuel are not your problem but invisible money is.
SMH

Excellentmind:
You don't just sit on the chair of your comfort zone and type trash from your freckle mind. Nigeria's economy has taken the path of recession due to poor economic policy and lack of knowledge. Yet, you continue to support a government that has lost control of the economy as declared by lie lie Muhammed. Comment is not by force.

What poor economic policy? This is the first time in 16 years we have even had "An Economic Policy". I wonder what happened to all the intelligent people in this country. Nigerians are wailing because money is no longer easy to come by. Welcome to he real world. You cannot just loot money. You have to work hard, work really hard and actually contribute usefully to society to get money out of it. Nigeria is the most corrupt country in the world today. Outsiders look at us and laugh and they wonder how so much people can be foolish at the same time. That you even say what you are saying simply means you do not even know how a country makes money and you think it is by selling oil. All we have been doing for 16 years is giving our oil wells out and selling it. Leaving our own people in the Niger Delta to be the destitute of this murderous people. No one except the PDP looters and their handbags/wannabes profited from this 16 years. Schooling became harder, finding a job became harder, we have to fly to england/India (India that was almost nothing when we were everything back in the 60s) to get good treatment (so those of us who cannot afford to go to india and do not have looting connections can die abi?).

And guess what? The entire world in a recession thanks to our over dependence on the dollar as a global currency that determines change in the trade markets, a default by American and EU banks means the whole world has to drink garri. So APC is not the cause of Nigeria's recession, the world has been in it for a long time. If your problem is fuel and light then I am sorry but you have a long way to go.

Enyimbamercedes:
Reminds me of the article on how to criticize the present government. Always start of with blaming PDP...I would be able to address your comment if i understood half of what you said but honestly i do not. How do you refine your fuel without...wait for it...functional REFINERIES? I agree on fuel not selling at the right price but i don't know what that has to do with bribes from the western countries. You may wish to recall that the PDP-led government attempted to sell fuel at the right price by removing subsidies but we all cried out and occupied the streets...now you wail that they collected bribes. Now listen, for as long as we import and we have FX restrictions, we will always be exposed to shortages. For as long as we fix prices and subsidize, the sector will never grow. No refineries will be built and we won't be able to refine and sell.

Because western countries have to ensure that our raw materials which we export sell at next to nothing. The goal is to drive the prices of our raw exports down so we can devalue the currency to be able to afford the finished goods when it is re-imported back to us. Fuel included.

Power, fuel and forex. Buharry needs to listen to professionals. The con3 is not smiling and the bread winners are not happy.

If you are not a bread winner, U won't understand these three combo

when you fail to plan. Then you are planning to fail. The problem with our leaders is that they don't sit down and study the Nigeria system and look for a possible solution. They wait until they get into power and start using Nigerian's and our resources for experiment. APC Government are still experimenting,may be after four years they will get the solution to all this problems.

Quakertellicus1:
From the article....it is obvious that they want us to devalue....so that forex can flow.

Buharinomics is a bad choice. The problem is...the alternatives are far worse. If we devalue now...we would end up with runaway inflation, severely depreciated naira and suddenly we would be taking high amount of loans to balance the books.

What needs to be done next is simple. We must, as I have said here time after time...become a manufacturing power. I want to see this APC government spend more on generation, and work with the DISCOS and GENCOS to repair our outdated transmission system. I want to see more spending on technical education.I want to see an end to fuel subsidy....because we are just wasting money that could be used for better things, and we do not even have the money to subsidize fuel anyways. We should improve agriculture....by encouraging large scale farming. We should encourage our local industries to stop importing raw materials if they can be sourced in Nigeria. And we must fight corruption....no compromise.



That is what APC must do to leave a glorious legacy.

Modified: Re loans....if we have to take loans...why not in the form of infrastructure?

Eg...Germany gives us a ''loan''to build a power station that runs on refuse...by building the power plant and providing training and logistics.

One million likes for you.

Produce, Manufacture and sell to the world and Nigeria will have forex.

My comment about all these PDP crap is ;

enlightenedmind:
Because western countries have to ensure that our raw materials which we export sell at next to nothing. The goal is to drive the prices of our raw exports down so we can devalue the currency to be able to afford the finished goods when it is re-imported back to us. Fuel included.

How does devaluation help us afford imported goods? You ever taken an economics class?

enlightenedmind:
Because western countries have to ensure that our raw materials which we export sell at next to nothing. The goal is to drive the prices of our raw exports down so we can devalue the currency to be able to afford the finished goods when it is re-imported back to us. Fuel included.

How does devaluation help us afford imported goods? You ever taken an economics class?

einsteine:
How does devaluation help us afford imported goods? You ever taken an economics class?

How does devaluation help us afford imported goods? You ever taken an economics class?

YOU ARE ASKING ME THIS QUESTION AND ASKING ME IF I HAVE TAKEN ECONOMICS CLASS LOL

Dude, after a devaluation, imported goods become MORE EXPENSIVE not more affordable. You really should think things before posting.

enlightenedmind:
YOU ARE ASKING ME THIS QUESTION AND ASKING ME IF I HAVE TAKEN ECONOMICS CLASS LOL

einsteine:
Dude, after a devaluation, imported goods become MORE EXPENSIVE not more affordable. You really should think things before posting.

Of cuz it increases. What are u saying? The prices of goods and services increase accordingly. So imports are more expensive. But that law never works in the Nigerian market. The person who made law never expected that a country would export raw materials and re-import finished goods. So if we are making some return on the exportation of those goods, even if the value of the currency is going down, but a country has phony GDP growth (growth in the amount of money individuals hold), they are able to afford the imports anyways so it does not apply. So they can get our raw materials cheaply, then sell us the finished products at ridiculous prices and of course we will buy it because although the currency has fallen, people have more money to spend.
And mind you, fuel is a necessity so its income elasticity is almost zero. Regardless of the price of fuel we must buy fuel. So if we are importing fuel, we cannot be devaluing the currency. Else you become Zimbabwe. 1trillion Zim Dollars.

paschu:
You are really very funny.

Your assertion is that the last administration could not pay Jan. and Feb. salaries and oil subsidies in 2015 because the govt. was broke, right? So answer these:

Since the 2016 budget is still unavailable, and oil price went even lower:

1. Where did PMB get the money to pay off the backlog of oil subsidies?

2. Where did PMB get the money to pay fedral salaries all through 2015?

3. Where did PMB get money to bail out the so many broke states around the nation?

4. Where did PMB get money to continue the fight against BH?

5. Where did PMB get the money that keeps his govt. and its massive propaganda running?

6: Where did PMB get the money to fund all his massive presidential travels?

There is only one logical answer to all the above, in 4 steps:

Step 1. Peg the forex at a ridiclously artificial low price and call it the official window.

Step 2. Create forex scarcity with your policies, and refuse most people access to forex at the official window.

Step 3: Make sure parallel market sells at a high price, then tell them to go source their own forex.

Step 4. Create a close knitt racket through wich you round trip the forex and rob innocent nigerians of their hard-earned money making nearly 100% profit out of thin air without work or noise.

Bam you have more than enough fund to keep your lopsided govt. and its cronies going while the rest of the populace moan and languish in pains.

This very scenario is the root of all the SUDDEN HIKE in economic woes we now have. It has absolutely little or nothing to do with the price of crude or past administration.

in response to your questions; nigeria made $480b from the sale of crude between 2010 and 2015 and was only able to save $2.1b in ECA and paltry sum of $2.4b in SWF,while its foreign reserve depreciated year in year out from $49b in 2010 to $27.8b as at 30th of may 2015 and its debt profile increased astronomically within this period. You dont require a professor of economist to tell you these were recipes for economic disasters, it was just a matter of time. Nigeria is a mono-economy with over 80% of its foreign earnings coming from crude oil sale, so its only logical to expect a sharp drop in foreign earnings, which in turn affects the access to foreign exchange. This is where simple law of opportunity cost comes in, how do you now apply your very lean foreign reserve in view of the fact that you may not be having any extra source of earning any time soon. Liberalising the forex market has done us no good even in the past, from the days of SAP to present days. May I remind you that just in 2014, nigeria devalued its currency by over 20%, yet this had no positive impact on our economy. Simple truth is that ask your brother jona to tell us how come we made so much money within the time of his reign yet we incurred about the highest debt ever in the history of nigeria.

todayboy:
The problem with buhari is that he is too arrogant and prideful he does not listen to advise
Buhari is thinking he is still in control because of the Yoruba children that eulogies him online
For those of us who liv with the Yorubas in Lagos they will push to the war front and abandon and betray you

The only people supporting and hailing buhari are those on nairaland.

enlightenedmind:
What poor economic policy? This is the first time in 16 years we have even had "An Economic Policy". I wonder what happened to all the intelligent people in this country. Nigerians are wailing because money is no longer easy to come by. Welcome to he real world. You cannot just loot money. You have to work hard, work really hard and actually contribute usefully to society to get money out of it. Nigeria is the most corrupt country in the world today. Outsiders look at us and laugh and they wonder how so much people can be foolish at the same time. That you even say what you are saying simply means you do not even know how a country makes money and you think it is by selling oil. All we have been doing for 16 years is giving our oil wells out and selling it. Leaving our own people in the Niger Delta to be the destitute of this murderous people. No one except the PDP looters and their handbags/wannabes profited from this 16 years. Schooling became harder, finding a job became harder, we have to fly to england/India (India that was almost nothing when we were everything back in the 60s) to get good treatment (so those of us who cannot afford to go to india and do not have looting connections can die abi?).

And guess what? The entire world in a recession thanks to our over dependence on the dollar as a global currency that determines change in the trade markets, a default by American and EU banks means the whole world has to drink garri. So APC is not the cause of Nigeria's recession, the world has been in it for a long time. If your problem is fuel and light then I am sorry but you have a long way to go.

In case you don't know, Nigerian is not the most corrupt country in the world like you erroneously posited in your comment. It may interest you to know that Nigerians are known to be hard working people round the globe and so can't be blamed for the state of Nigerian economy. Leadership has been the problem of Nigeria of which Buhari and his APC corrupt associates now turned saints are part of and so invalidates the theory of PDP being responsible for economic woos of Nigeria.

coolbis:
in response to your questions; nigeria made $480b from the sale of crude between 2010 and 2015 and was only able to save $2.1b in ECA and paltry sum of $2.4b in SWF,while its foreign reserve depreciated year in year out from $49b in 2010 to $27.8b as at 30th of may 2015 and its debt profile increased astronomically within this period. You dont require a professor of economist to tell you these were recipes for economic disasters, it was just a matter of time. Nigeria is a mono-economy with over 80% of its foreign earnings coming from crude oil sale, so its only logical to expect a sharp drop in foreign earnings, which in turn affects the access to foreign exchange. This is where simple law of opportunity cost comes in, how do you now apply your very lean foreign reserve in view of the fact that you may not be having any extra source of earning any time soon. Liberalising the forex market has done us no good even in the past, from the days of SAP to present days. May I remind you that just in 2014, nigeria devalued its currency by over 20%, yet this had no positive impact on our economy. Simple truth is that ask your brother jona to tell us how come we made so much money within the time of his reign yet we incurred about the highest debt ever in the history of nigeria.

You did not answer any of the questions, man. You only did the classic APC thing: blame GEJ.

Unfortunately the question was not about what happened invthe last administration. The question was (and still is) where did PMB get the money to run his government, and even had the excess to handle the other issues I raised?

There is no way you can explain that scenario (and still insist that GEJ left nothing) without acknowledging that your god's govt. imposed forex restrictions and undue forex scarcity in order to illegally raise money from the unsuspecting masses. QED

enlightenedmind:
What poor economic policy? This is the first time in 16 years we have even had "An Economic Policy". I wonder what happened to all the intelligent people in this country. Nigerians are wailing because money is no longer easy to come by. Welcome to he real world. You cannot just loot money. You have to work hard, work really hard and actually contribute usefully to society to get money out of it. Nigeria is the most corrupt country in the world today. Outsiders look at us and laugh and they wonder how so much people can be foolish at the same time. That you even say what you are saying simply means you do not even know how a country makes money and you think it is by selling oil. All we have been doing for 16 years is giving our oil wells out and selling it. Leaving our own people in the Niger Delta to be the destitute of this murderous people. No one except the PDP looters and their handbags/wannabes profited from this 16 years. Schooling became harder, finding a job became harder, we have to fly to england/India (India that was almost nothing when we were everything back in the 60s) to get good treatment (so those of us who cannot afford to go to india and do not have looting connections can die abi?).

And guess what? The entire world in a recession thanks to our over dependence on the dollar as a global currency that determines change in the trade markets, a default by American and EU banks means the whole world has to drink garri. So APC is not the cause of Nigeria's recession, the world has been in it for a long time. If your problem is fuel and light then I am sorry but you have a long way to go.

Chei!!!! Did you just type that rubbish up there?

paschu:
You did not answer any of the questions, man. You only did the classic APC thing: blame GEJ.

Unfortunately the question was not about what happened invthe last administration. The question was (and still is) where did PMB get the money to run his government, and even had the excess to handle the other issues I raised?

There is no way you can explain that scenario (and still insist that GEJ left nothing) without acknowledging that your god's govt. imposed forex restrictions and undue forex scarcity in order to illegally raise money from the unsuspecting masses. QED

for your information mr Buhari is and can never be my god, we supported ur GEJ in 2011 thinking he was going to be different. Unfortunately he turned out to be a disaster. If a country whose income in 5 years was in the range of $500b can only boast of less than $5b as savings with huge debt,then something definitely was wrong with the policy makers. Lack of clarity in forex policy did not start with this present government. As a matter of fact the first yellow card given to CBN by JP morgan as regards to lack of clarity in forex policy was in November 2014, when your hero was still @ the helm of affairs. So how soon could you have forgotten all these.