When I stumbled on this topic, the name " Axelrod" prompted me to open the thread and I almost accept the fact that Buhari will win in 2019 thinking it was written by reknown David M. Axelrod (American political operative and political analyst, best known as the Chief Strategist for Barack Obama's presidential campaigns). Reserve is the case when I noticed that our own nairaland Axelrod put up his opinion by thinking Buhari will win in 2019 (his opinion though). Since we are at liberty to write and think freely, I will like to acknowledge the fact that you said its your opinion and not what you think we should accept. May I put to you expressly that your opinion is wrong (my opinion too) base on what I've seen and the body languages of citizens of this country. You are right to say that some people in the North will vote for Buhari corpse let alone a living being, you are right no doubt about that, but the percentage of those willing to comit "Buharicide" (act of killing oneself for Buhari ambition) has drop drastically over the past months because we've come to realise that this government is scam even though their apologists think otherwise. I will highlight the reasons why I believe that Buhari cannot win and why he will win in 2019 ( an the case maybe).
Reasons why he can't win
1. If fallout with Tunubu is not corrected before 2019
We don't need to be to told that this isn't the best of times for Asiwaju, his quietness over national issues over the past months has show that all is not good. True be told, Asiwaju is a major force in South-West politics and he still hold the power to turn things around in that geopolitical zone even though some of Tinubu's allies has switched allegiance to Buhari's camp. They are Fayemi, Fasola, Akeredolu etc. In breaking the puzzle of how much power those guys weigh countdown to 2019 shows that only Akeredolu can offer something for baby because of his position while Fayemi (Ex. Ekiti Governor and current minister of solid mineral) cannot deliver his Isan-Ekiti ward in Oye local government when the times comes because the guy isnt cherish at home. I don't see Fasola determine how lagosians will vote even though he is an Ex.governor handpicked to the throne by Asiwaju.
2. IPOB handling
Another reason why Bubu can't win in 2019 is the way and manner he handle the IPOB agitation. There are better ways to handle such vital issue other than how he used the show of force making an average Igbo man to think that he hate them( I wouldn't know maybe he doesn't). Most of the wound caused by such tyrannical method won't be heal and it will be fresh in an average Igbo mind in 2019.
3. The Quest for Anybody
This is the killer factor. The quest for anybody to ascend the throne by Nigerians will make Buhari lose the coming National election. It might sound so shallow, if Atiku should emerge as PDP flagbearer, he has already a major votes in the southern states while he wil share the north with bubu. (you are not in position to tell me that Atiku is corrupt, I know my self and who doesn't) but the quest to see Buhari leave Aso Villa and occupied with anybody is another problem .
4. Massive Corruption.
This is a case of pot calling kettle black. As usual, there will be blames and counter blames on why corruption is been perpetrated in Buhari's cabinet but that's gonna be a major selling point for the opposition in 2019
5. Inflation
Have we ever think that an average hustling Nigerians (sadly, they make up 85% of the electorates) doesn't think about long term planning on wealth maximization, they want instant yields and since they have come to realise that the cost of running their lives (foods, cloths, shelter) doubled or tripled in Buhari's tenure will mar his re-election because they don't know or understand into details what GDP or price of crude oil has to do with their garri, cereal, millet, corn, onion etc. Their belief is that Bubu skyrocket prices intentionally.

Reason why Buhari will win in 2019
1. Rigging

The truth of the matter; it is easier for this poster to be President by 2019 than for the South to vote out President Buhari, should he decide to contest.
Hold on, I know you don't share my position and want to attack me now. But can you set emotions aside so we face reality? @ axelrod

See mental problem. You have mental problem to.have said this.

The YOUTH of this country is the PROBLEM of this country.

Oh ye Foolish Generation.

People like you pray about things they can do for themselves and accept hardahip instead of prosperity.

You said Nigerians are suffering yet they will not vote out their cause of suffering.

Maduawuchukwu:


Atiku is a strong man in the north-east hope you know? And identity politics is powerful. That they voted overwhelmingly for him in 2015 is because the opponent was a southerner who they felt did not care about their plight. 2019 might be different.

Sir,atiku is not strong pilitically except in terms of funds and friends but hes too elitist for voters and doesnt have that grassroot support buhari does.atiku cannot even win his state anyway and if he does,it would be marginally.hes struggling to control his state politically currently and his influence in taraba is waning.another state he can get votes from in the north is plateau and kwara but buhari as president would win north west and north east heavily.the both regions may give him over 15 million votes.states like kano,kaduna and katsina will give him over 2mil votes each.he will still win middle belt and southwest marginally.the south east and south south would go to atiku but not many votes would be recorded since a southerner is not the candidate.buhari may win states like imo,edo,rivers,cross river etc.
Pdp recorded 2.4 million votes in the south east in 2015 and buhari had 180,000 votes.pdp may not get up to 1.5 mil votes while buhari would get more than 500,000 votes.in the south south pdp recorded 4.6mil votes while apc had about 400,000 votes.in 2019,pdp would struggle to get up to 3mil votes while apc would get up to a million votes.no northerner presently can win buhari in his state or even win up to 5 northern states.even any candidate nominated by buhari would still win.up apc.up buhari.

Jesusloveyou:
tell me any popular candidate from north that can stand buhari?

Remember a certain General Mohammadu Buhari, who was called a serial loser, unelectable, Boko-haram sympathizer, brutal ex dictator, jan jah whe ed, illiterate, no certificate, not amiable..... YES, HE WAS THE DEFINITION OF YOUR TERM "unpopular"

But when the people are tired, they do not see all these negatives!



Just like when a woman is tired of her husband and marriage and seeks revenge, she could sleep with anything walking on 2 legs!

luwabrooklyn:
he could win d north ooooh and preside over them but for south never easily nigeria go disintegrate

Even northerners don taya bro

ogbonti:




I see that the defeat of Goodluck Jonathan taught you nothing about "a people tired of a leader" and wish to trash him for anyone - a real or potential messiah. Your Buhari will lose in a landslide, and his defeat will be so massive that he may develop a stroke on election night. WHY?


Those people you mentioned will rather die than to see Buhari lose, have "one vote each to cast, not ten million votes each" - go ask Orubebe, FFK, Dieziani, Asari, Dasuki, Sambo, Anyim, Metuh, Dokpesi etc. these were people who had political clout and cash to move mountains, but when the people thought otherwise, all their powers was no match when the PVC showed up. There OP who seems to suffer from chronic Amnesia, you seem to forget too soon because you only see the present and you forget that this same time, 3 years ago, Goodluck looked like the "Rock of Gilbratar" with all the trappings and candor of power, and he was consumed by it when he started dollarizing the election thinking some big names; political heavy weights, the media, traditional rulers, intellectuals, Nollywood stars, soccer stars, comedians etc. INSTEAD OF THE MASSES, could save his campaign. To his credit, the man did his best and accepted defeat because the people were just tired of that name PDP, and wanted something else after 16 years, despite the fact that almost everyone in APC was a disgruntled former PDP member.

Now having refreshed your mind about the events that brought in PMB some 30 months ago, I need you to realize that "THE PEOPLE" not a group of power hungry oligarchs is the "SOLE DENOMINATOR IN EVERY ELECTION EQUATION" especially now that the PVC has power. From the current pulse in Nigeria, your PMB has a steep mountain to climb. And he is most likely to lose -

1. His poor handling of the IPOB issue shows the SE is locked out from supporting his candidacy, even the most illliterate Nigerian knows this.

2. His Northern Agenda of appointment, even baffled the most sympathetic Yoruba electorate and they know what to do in 2019.

3. Don't expect Tinubu to openly campaign against Buhari right now, but I know his foot soldiers are "rolling the tanks of an election coup"

4. The witch hunt of only PDP members and beautication to sainthood of the likes of Rotimi Amaechi, Buratai, SFG Lawal will finish PMB

5. That national address he gave when he returned from U.K. Where he threatened Nigerians will be remembered, he is done!

6. The litany of lies and broken promises of the APC will turn biters away. $1 is not N1, instead it's almost doubled at N360 from N500

7. The onslaught of Fulani herdsmen ravaging the country with rape, murder, plunder and PMB's docile response will be remembered.

8. The grazing bill which is a calculation to colonize the country for the Normadic and barbaric Fulani will be remembered.

9. No one should ridicule a stick person, but the irresponsible disappearance of Buhari, refusing to brief Nigerians on his health is a liability

10. With almost zero convictions of the EFCC under Buhari, the people's desire to see kirikiri full of corrupt politicians has vaporized.


And many more time and space will not permit me to type, the PEOPLE WILL SEND HIM PACKING COME 2019 !!!!! Enough said.

you people should stop your deceit game it's not in your favour!
Let me tell you PDP can never win in Lagos, Tinubu is not fool to lose Lagos to PDP in any election.
you get it right
Ibadan can never be lost to PDP!
ok!

gabicon:
The permutations of 2019 still favours pmb simply because the north has no other uniting face. Getting votes in the ss n se will be a tough one, the sw are evaluting the benefits of their supporting pmb in 2015 the results are unfavourable. Pdp is out of the question as its now more of an area boys gathering than a political party. Im afraid of another political party coming into the scene cos it may just make an already terrible situation worse.

Pmb has taught me that a good leader is useless without a good team. Pmb assembled a poor team to work for him.

one of the quality of a good leader is the ability to assembled a good teamwork.

Buhari will get more vote from SS/SE in 2019 than 2015, the PDP will obviously field a northerner as candidate, unlike 2015.
The PDP candidate peradventure he wins, will like running for another tenure making it 12 years of northern rule. Southerners in APC knew this, that's why they are pushing Buhari second term ticket.

Afam4eva:

While i agree with your prelude, i think the crux of your argument does not hold water. Despite Buhari's God like status in the north, how come he couldn't win the election in the previous times that he contested? It's mainly due to the fact that most of his votes came from the core northern states and he couldn't get the middle-belt votes as well as the south-west votes which he got this time around. That's exactly what changed. And the reason he was voted by these regions was because of the influence of Tinubu and the APC machinery in the south-west. For the middle-belt, they just joined the bandwagon of changed because they really suffered in the hands of their PDP reps.

This time around, Buhari will really find it tough because we all know that the SE and SS will not vote for Buhari. He may not even win Edo state which is the only APC state in the region. A lot of people in the SW have also become disenchanted with his rulership even though some may try to hide it. It's the same story in the middle-belt.

The only way Buhari will win the 2019 election is if PDP or any opposition do not present a popular candidate. I think at the point, it's PDP's election to lose because Buhari's presidency is the worse ever in the history of Nigeria. He makes Jonathan look like a demi God.

Let's also not rule out the springing up of a new political merger towards 2019.

Because he only won in North- West and East respectively.
Then he lost Majority of North Central; Kwara was Saraki -PDP, Plateau was Jona Jang -PDP, Nasarawa was Ali Akwe Doma -PDP, Benue was Gabriel Suswam -PDP and Niger was Babangida Aliyu -PDP. A careful examination tells you that those mentioned above are/were diehard PDP stalwarts who couldn't have supported Bubari.
He lost the South-West firstly, to Obasanjo, then to Yar'dua and GEJ due to Tinubu's support for the latter in 2011.

You can't say that now that the entire North-Central is APC and some South-West.

Brillantman:
When I stumbled on this topic, the name " Axelrod" prompted me to open the thread and I almost accept the fact that Buhari will win in 2019 thinking it was written by reknown David M. Axelrod (American political operative and political analyst, best known as the Chief Strategist for Barack Obama's presidential campaigns). Reserve is the case when I noticed that our own nairaland Axelrod put up his opinion by thinking Buhari will win in 2019 (his opinion though). Since we are at liberty to write and think freely, I will like to acknowledge the fact that you said its your opinion and not what you think we should accept. May I put to you expressly that your opinion is wrong (my opinion too) base on what I've seen and the body languages of citizens of this country. You are right to say that some people in the North will vote for Buhari corpse let alone a living being, you are right no doubt about that, but the percentage of those willing to comit "Buharicide" (act of killing oneself for Buhari ambition) has drop drastically over the past months because we've come to realise that this government is scam even though their apologists think otherwise. I will highlight the reasons why I believe that Buhari cannot win and why he will win in 2019 ( an the case maybe).
Reasons why he can't win
1. If fallout with Tunubu is not corrected before 2019
We don't need to be to told that this isn't the best of times for Asiwaju, his quietness over national issues over the past months has show that all is not good. True be told, Asiwaju is a major force in South-West politics and he still hold the power to turn things around in that geopolitical zone even though some of Tinubu's allies has switched allegiance to Buhari's camp. They are Fayemi, Fasola, Akeredolu etc. In breaking the puzzle of how much power those guys weigh countdown to 2019 shows that only Akeredolu can offer something for baby because of his position while Fayemi (Ex. Ekiti Governor and current minister of solid mineral) cannot deliver his Isan-Ekiti ward in Oye local government when the times comes because the guy isnt cherish at home. I don't see Fasola determine how lagosians will vote even though he is an Ex.governor handpicked to the throne by Asiwaju.
2. IPOB handling
Another reason why Bubu can't win in 2019 is the way and manner he handle the IPOB agitation. There are better ways to handle such vital issue other than how he used the show of force making an average Igbo man to think that he hate them( I wouldn't know maybe he doesn't). Most of the wound caused by such tyrannical method won't be heal and it will be fresh in an average Igbo mind in 2019.
3. The Quest for Anybody
This is the killer factor. The quest for anybody to ascend the throne by Nigerians will make Buhari lose the coming National election. It might sound so shallow, if Atiku should emerge as PDP flagbearer, he has already a major votes in the southern states while he wil share the north with bubu. (you are not in position to tell me that Atiku is corrupt, I know my self and who doesn't) but the quest to see Buhari leave Aso Villa and occupied with anybody is another problem .
4. Massive Corruption.
This is a case of pot calling kettle black. As usual, there will be blames and counter blames on why corruption is been perpetrated in Buhari's cabinet but that's gonna be a major selling point for the opposition in 2019
5. Inflation
Have we ever think that an average hustling Nigerians (sadly, they make up 85% of the electorates) doesn't think about long term planning on wealth maximization, they want instant yields and since they have come to realise that the cost of running their lives (foods, cloths, shelter) doubled or tripled in Buhari's tenure will mar his re-election because they don't know or understand into details what GDP or price of crude oil has to do with their garri, cereal, millet, corn, onion etc. Their belief is that Bubu skyrocket prices intentionally.

Reason why Buhari will win in 2019
1. Rigging

You think this is 1979 or 1983 or even 1999 ? Biko, tell your Buhari to rig and watch POTUS Donald Trump find a reason to excommunicate him and Nigeria from the civilized world. Then you will know the illiterate from Daura is just a chicken. My guy, learn ooooo. Have you seen what's happening in Venezuela? They are at a breaking point even though communist sympathizer nations are managing to buy their oil in bits just to keep them afloat... who buys our oil? 90% of it is sold to USA and NATO nations, and if Trump lays an embargo because PMB rigged? What will happen ? When hunger waya your household, you go know say khaki no be leather... old boy, leave that thing!

Axelrod:


Really?
If you want to talk about Buhari's achievements, please don't mention agriculture. It's a friendly warning. Because when those who have the strength to argue finally get here, they will put that line in the thrash where it belongs.
Have you heard of Akinwumi Adesina? Erstwhile minister of agriculture and all the good this he did in that sector?
Now we have Audu Ogbe who is exporting yams. Or did anyone tell you the yams were rejected in the US because they were bad?

brother..well done...but u must know that.. They tried 70tones..of yam to export.., not all were rejected.. But some.the rejection was mainly due to export policies, others and not because there were bad.it was actually a laudable attempt. The y only wanted to be sure they can enter the market which they have achieved.what is left for the ministry of agric now is to do yam self sufficiency analysis to be able to see the amount needed in the country all year round and the amount for exportation that could be sustained. Country like Ghana, ivory coast have been in the market for long.the amount of yams being cultivated in Niger state alone is more than the amount being produced in the entire Ghana.

salt1:


She's actually right. Buhari will win if he's alive and well to contest in 2019. Here are my own reasons:
1) he enjoys huge support of the North
2)The North has huge population. By 2019, most of the 10m out of school children in the north will be qualified to vote and will vote for him
3)if he presents Osibanjo, he will still get block votes from Yorubas who will enjoy the possibility of a presidency if the incumbent should die. Born agains in Redeemed and Winners will still support their pastor.
4) there will be voter apathy in SS and SE if the two major parties present Hausas

It sucks being Igbo or SS right now, but democracy is a game of numbers. Right now, the Hausas and Yorubas have it and will continue to be the beautiful bride for a long while

Point of correction, my post is more of a lamentation than a boast!
I am not a Buhari supporter. My comment here should tell you that!

Bro, Na you misquoted me by focusing only on that. A good student of literature will know that's an irony.

ogbonti:




You think this is 1979 or 1983 or even 1999 ? Biko, tell your Buhari to rig and watch POTUS Donald Trump find a reason to excommunicate him and Nigeria from the civilized world. Then you will know the illiterate from Daura is just a chicken. My guy, learn ooooo. Have you seen what's happening in Venezuela? They are at a breaking point even though communist sympathizer nations are managing to buy their oil in bits just to keep them afloat... who buys our oil? 90% of it is sold to USA and NATO nations, and if Trump lays an embargo because PMB rigged? What will happen ? When hunger waya your household, you go know say khaki no be leather... old boy, leave that thing!

Clerverly:


Which country is that? In 2015 elections, the entire votes of South East which is about 1.5Million is less than that of Kano 1.8Million...and that was in spite of the vote stuffing for jonathan....now Buhari being on saddle in 2019..tell me how Kano votes would look like?

actually, gej lost the 2015 election due to low voters turnout (conspiracy theorists has a lot of assumptions over it's occurrence) in the SE. 2011 gej got over a million votes in abia, 2015 he got 300,000 (a difference of 700,000).2011 he got a million votes from imo ,anambra, 2015 he got 500,000,600,000 -respectively (a difference of 500,000 and 300,000).2015 he got 500,000 votes from Enugu compared to the 800,000 he got in 2011.he also lost over 100,000 votes in ebonyi. The same thing occurred in the south west (only difference is that the Yoruba's voted instead for apc).
apc won with a 2.6 million margin, Pdp lost close to 2 million votes in the SE alone and God knows what number in the SW. The opposition would have a credible opportunity if the can get the SE to vote (which begs the question of whom and what ipob is working for? ) and get some south west states to their side.

Buhari will definitely win again, this time people would have empathize with the SE to vote a candidate from there but the action of IPOB recently has change the mind of the people that matter or the mind of the people that decide. From source OGBONNAYA ONU is the candidate being pick by the men that decide to contest as Buhari is not willing to contest again, but now his body language has change and may want run again.

For now no Igbo candidate can win as they have lost the trust due to the recent agitation for secession. There are news from different side of people decamping to other party here and there, do not be excited yet this is the preamble in the political game, you also hear people angry of the Buhari administration! ok oo i hear you,, let 2019 comes you will be surprise don't be deceive by any news now.

Another thing again the SE does not vote in mass as the north do, they sit at home and wait for the vote to be manipulate in their favor.

Axelrod:
Before you proceed, kindly know that this is my personal opinion which I am entitled to, just like you are entitled to yours!

It is no longer news that Nigerians are undergoing much more suffering in the President Muhammadu Buhari's administration than has ever been experienced in the 18years of absolute democracy in the country.

This suffering and hardship has been defined differently, according to each person's political views and affiliations. President Buhari's supporters have not wasted any chance to shout to high havens that the suffering and hardship is as a result of the rot left behind by the defeated, now opposition Peoples Democratic Party, particularly, the immediate past administration of President Goodluck Jonathan has been fingered the most.

Whereas, others see it differently, as they believe the hardship is as a result of the ruling party's inability and inexperience to manage the country. Those in this school, point to many factors to proof their points. Some of which are:

1. Nigerian Naira was around 197 to one USDolloar, $1 = N197, at the tthe the current administration took over powers, but now, the difference is almost double of what it used to be.

2. PMS pump price was at N97, despite the fact that crude oil sold for $100/per barrel then. Now it is at N145 even though crude oil is selling at $54/barrel.

3. The Nigerian Economy was one of the best in Africa, yet after the new administration came on board, the economy plunged into recession.

4. As a result of the recession, food stuffs skyrocketed, thus, the hardship in question.

5. Etc

Be it as it may, Nigerians, particularly those from the Southern part of the country have accused the current President of sectional leadership style. Some believe the President favours citizens from the North more than he does those from the South.

This accusations have formed the basis for which many people who feel unduly treated, together with those not feeling the impact of this government, should I say, those feeling the impact negatively, have vowed to vote President Buhari and APC out of power, come 2019.

The truth of the matter; it is easier for this poster to be President by 2019 than for the South to vote out President Buhari, should he decide to contest.
Hold on, I know you don't share my position and want to attack me now. But can you set emotions aside so we face reality?

-Now, President Muhammadu Buhari is highly revered in the North. Most Northerners, particularly, the Muslims who hold the majority in terms of population see him as their Messiah and will vote for his obituary poster(pun intended here). In that case, Buhari on a wheel chair will still win in the entire.

- In the South, he has allies who will rather die than not support him, even if he were on a sick bed. These persons include; Rochas Okorocha, Governor of Imo State, Rotimi Amaechi, Babatunde Fashola, Ibikunle Amosun, Chris Ngige, Fayemi Kayode, et al.

With those people, Buhari will get the needed votes from the South (he may not necessarily win the South).
If you check, I did not mention Tinubu nor Obasanjo. That was on purpose. Because, in some quarters, people believe that Tinubu has fallen out of favours from the President and as such ''may'' not support him by 2019.

So you see! It is almost impossible to vote out Buhari and he, just like his supporters, like Sarrki, Cleverly, Hungerbad, Omenka, Mynd44(no ban me o, I get right to talk o) and others know this. Hence, they keep shouting, Buhari till 2023.

Let the bashing begin!

You are a patriot

senatordave1:

Sir,atiku is not strong pilitically except in terms of funds and friends but hes too elitist for voters and doesnt have that grassroot support buhari does.atiku cannot even win his state anyway and if he does,it would be marginally.hes struggling to control his state politically currently and his influence in taraba is waning.another state he can get votes from in the north is plateau and kwara but buhari as president would win north west and north east heavily.the both regions may give him over 15 million votes.states like kano,kaduna and katsina will give him over 2mil votes each.he will still win middle belt and southwest marginally.the south east and south south would go to atiku but not many votes would be recorded since a southerner is not the candidate.buhari may win states like imo,edo,rivers,cross river etc.
Pdp recorded 2.4 million votes in the south east in 2015 and buhari had 180,000 votes.pdp may not get up to 1.5 mil votes while buhari would get more than 500,000 votes.in the south south pdp recorded 4.6mil votes while apc had about 400,000 votes.in 2019,pdp would struggle to get up to 3mil votes while apc would get up to a million votes.no northerner presently can win buhari in his state or even win up to 5 northern states.even any candidate nominated by buhari would still win.up apc.up buhari.

Atiku was the person who put the present Adamawa governor in office. Hope you know? Atiku was the one who pushed Mama Taraba to almost winning the 2015 elections in her state hope you know? Atiku is very strong in the North East guy and who told you Buhari will win south-west this time around? He barely won the last time and he is now in bad shape there mind you. Lastly, Buhari cannot win any state in the South-East and South-south, mark my words.

You guys can fight till eternity it's non of my business I give up already, in fact I am not going to vote comes 2019,let them politicians continue to do their own and I will continue to do my own.

You are very correct; total vote for PDP and APC from NW in 2015 presidential election was 8,454,908 while that of SS + SE was 7,796,469

STATE PDP APC
ABIA 368,303 13,394
ADAMAWA 251,664 374,701
AKWA IBOM 953,304 58,411
ANAMBRA 660,762 17,926
BAUCHI 86,085 931,598
BAYELSA 361,209 5,194
BENUE 303,737 373,961
BORNO 25,640 473,543
CROSS RIVER 414,863 28,368
DELTA 1,211,405 48,910
EBONYI 323,653 19,518
EDO 286,869 208,469
EKITI 176,466 120,331
ENUGU 553,003 14,157
FCT 157,195 146,399
GOMBE 96,873 361,245
IMO 559,185 133,253
JIGAWA 142,904 885,988
KADUNA 484,085 1,127,760
KANO 215,779 1,903,999
KATSINA 98,937 1,345,441
KEBBI 100,972 567,883
KOGI 149,987 264,851
KWARA 132,602 302,146
LAGOS 632,327 792,460
NASSARAWA 273,460 236,838
NIGER 149,222 657,678
OGUN 207,950 308,290
ONDO 251,368 299,889
OSUN 249,929 383,603
OYO 303,376 528,620
PLATEAU 549,615 429,140
RIVERS 1,487,075 69,238
SOKOTO 152,199 671,926
TARABA 310,800 261,326
YOBE 25,526 446,265
ZAMFARA 144,833 612,202
12,853,162 15,424,921

Clerverly:


Motor park analysis, the elections in Nigeria are not won based on the number of zones a candidate wins but rather on a simple majority, provided the candidate meets the required 1/3 of the votes in the 2/3 of the Federation.

The total votes of the entire South East/SS are not bigger than that of the North West, Before you add other regions...

moninuola65:

you people should stop your deceit game it's not in your favour!
Let me tell you PDP can never win in Lagos, Tinubu is not fool to lose Lagos to PDP in any election.
you get it right
Ibadan can never be lost to PDP!
ok!

Well, you seem to see politics from a monolithic spectrum. Those intellectuals who coined the adage that;

" a day in politics is like 10 years " .......... this is because in a day in politics, a lot can happen that will look like it took 10 years to do it

AND

" in politics, there are no permanent friends, no permanent enemies, but permanent interests"


Are not fools. Everyone seeks where their bread is buttered. If you were alive in 1983, you will realize that Awolowo (UPN) boasted that he will not lose an inch of his domain to Shagari (NPN) Let me help u understand what happened. BOLA IGE of UPN, lost to a certain VICTOR OMOLOLU OLUNLOYO of NPN in Oyo State, ...... ADEKUNLE AJASIN (UPN) lost to a certain AKIN OMOBORIOWO (NPN). In BENDEL, Prof. Ambrose Ali (UPN) lost to Dr. Samuel Ogbemudia (NPN)



In the east nko? Azikiwe (NPP) boasted he can lose anywhere in Nigeria but not his beloved Anambra to Shagari (NPN) What happened?

Chief Jim Nwobodo (NPP) lost to Chief C.C. Onoh (NPN)



In Borno, Abubakar Waziri (GNPP) boasted that he will not lose his home state to Shagari (NPN), what happened?

Mohammed Goni (GNPP) lost to Sheik Jama (NPN)



In 1993 June 12 presidential elections, MKO Abiola from Ogun state defeated Bashir Tofa of Kano State in Kano State!

In politics, the more you look, the less you see!

When you are talking about politics in Nigeria exclusively, you have to take personal interest into your consideration. As it stands now, I'm still expecting a lot of consultations a lot of resources to change hands before 2019. I'm very certain all the big players in Nigeria politics today are still open for negotiation at this point in time due to the term PERSONAL INTEREST.

However, what I can deduce from PMB right now is that he's planning to go for more four years, and he's ready to play dirty politics to win another term going by the people he has intentionally put into strategic positions of the country with the aim of playing the right cards for him as the circumstances may required. But to me personally, PMB is losing the plot already especially mainstream media.

All in all, it's still early to say whether he will win again or not in my own opinion and extrapolation.

The reason I will support Buhari is because I want continuity. Yar'Adua's deviation from Obasanjo's well laid out plans led to the economic crisis which the OP is falsely trying to link with Buhari. By the time Buhari came in May 2015, petrol was officially 87 Naira but was only available at 300 Naira.

Wasteful analysis there

ogbonti:
[/b]



Well, you seem to see politics from a monolithic spectrum. Those intellectuals who coined the adage that;

" a day in politics is like 10 years " .......... this is because in a day in politics, a lot can happen that will look like it took 10 years to do it

AND

" in politics, there are no permanent friends, no permanent enemies, but permanent interests"


Are not fools. Everyone seeks where their bread is buttered. If you were alive in 1983, you will realize that Awolowo (UPN) boasted that he will not lose an inch of his domain to Shagari (NPN) Let me help u understand what happened. BOLA IGE of UPN, lost to a certain VICTOR OMOLOLU OLUNLOYO of NPN in Oyo State, ...... ADEKUNLE AJASIN (UPN) lost to a certain AKIN OMOBORIOWO (NPN). In BENDEL, Prof. Ambrose Ali (UPN) lost to Dr. Samuel Ogbemudia (NPN)



In the east nko? Azikiwe (NPP) boasted he can lose anywhere in Nigeria but not his beloved Anambra to Shagari (NPN) What happened?

Chief Jim Nwobodo (NPP) lost to Chief C.C. Onoh (NPN)



In Borno, Abubakar Waziri (GNPP) boasted that he will not lose his home state to Shagari (NPN), what happened?

Mohammed Goni (GNPP) lost to Sheik Jama (NPN)



In 1993 June 12 presidential elections, MKO Abiola from Ogun state defeated Bashir Tofa of Kano State in Kano State!

In politics, the more you look, the less you see!

truth be told, Nigeria politics can be difficult to predict most times due to self interest politics being played by our politicians. That is why I've been saying it's still somehow early to say what will happen come 2019 in Nigeria political arena.

Oluwadare:
When you are talking about politics in Nigeria exclusively, you have to take personal interest into your consideration. As it stands now, I'm still expecting a lot of consultations a lot of resources to change hands before 2019. I'm very certain all the big players in Nigeria politics today are still open for negotiation at this point in time due to the term PERSONAL INTEREST.

However, what I can deduce from PMB right now is that he's planning to go for more four years, and he's ready to play dirty politics to win another term going by the people he has intentionally put into strategic positions of the country with the aim of playing the right cards for him as the circumstances may required. But to me personally, PMB is losing the plot already especially mainstream media.

All in all, it's still early to say whether he will win again or not in my own opinion and extrapolation.

Every successful party in an election has a message that resonates with the people..... if the presidential election were held today, what is Buhari's message?

"Change begins with me?"

OR


"Corruption is in kirikiri?"


OR


"We kept ALL, or SOME, or ONE of our promise"


OR


what I can't even imagine wtf Buhari or APC will campaign with regarding achievement except lies and propaganda.

Clerverly:


The way you guys analyze and predict election results is so weird The election is PDP to lose? How? In the south east? Where? Buhari only needed the coalition to get to power....and now that he is there, with APC Governors controlling about 26 State governments, with 95% of northerners in firm grip, instrument of power,(INEC, Police etc) and with a South Westerner Osinbajo as his running met, pray tell, how will the election be a contest with PDP who has even been supporting secession camouflaged as Restructuring? Do you think the average Northerners are not taking notes of the Hatred being preached by Fayose and FFK?

How many elections has PDP being able to win since 2015, despite their propaganda against Buhari/APC? Do you think PDP will garner the kind of votes they had in 2015 without the aid of police and the military which are firmly in the hands of South East APC politicians?
Ask Wike, PDP in Imo State, PDP in Ondo State, PDP in Edo State how elections are held when you are at the receiving end...

Have you seen Obiano, Ikpeazu, Ugwuanyi. Ayade, Udom and Umahi criticize Buhari before? Reason, they are more interested in the second term bids[b][/b] than any useless presidential election..

Afam, concentrate on ipob things...you dont know anything about Nigerian Politics...

ogbonti:
[/b]



Well, you seem to see politics from a monolithic spectrum. Those intellectuals who coined the adage that;

" a day in politics is like 10 years " .......... this is because in a day in politics, a lot can happen that will look like it took 10 years to do it

AND

" in politics, there are no permanent friends, no permanent enemies, but permanent interests"


Are not fools. Everyone seeks where their bread is buttered. If you were alive in 1983, you will realize that Awolowo (UPN) boasted that he will not lose an inch of his domain to Shagari (NPN) Let me help u understand what happened. BOLA IGE of UPN, lost to a certain VICTOR OMOLOLU OLUNLOYO of NPN in Oyo State, ...... ADEKUNLE AJASIN (UPN) lost to a certain AKIN OMOBORIOWO (NPN). In BENDEL, Prof. Ambrose Ali (UPN) lost to Dr. Samuel Ogbemudia (NPN)



In the east nko? Azikiwe (NPP) boasted he can lose anywhere in Nigeria but not his beloved Anambra to Shagari (NPN) What happened?

Chief Jim Nwobodo (NPP) lost to Chief C.C. Onoh (NPN)



In Borno, Abubakar Waziri (GNPP) boasted that he will not lose his home state to Shagari (NPN), what happened?

Mohammed Goni (GNPP) lost to Sheik Jama (NPN)



In 1993 June 12 presidential elections, MKO Abiola from Ogun state defeated Bashir Tofa of Kano State in Kano State!

In politics, the more you look, the less you see!

pls stop!
do you know what play on then and whats play on now!
pdp is igbo in Lagos, that show you clearly Lagosian can afford losing Lagos to igbo
ok!
The winning of NPN in the west last how any months?
and when returned to politic it favour who later?
PDP was not win Lagos when they were in power, it's now they've dead already they will win in Lagos?

Maduawuchukwu:


Atiku was the person who put the present Adamawa governor in office. Hope you know? Atiku was the one who pushed Mama Taraba to almost winning the 2015 elections in her state hope you know? Atiku is very strong in the North East guy and who told you Buhari will win south-west this time around? He barely won the last time and he is now in bad shape there mind you. Lastly, Buhari cannot win any state in the South-East and South-south, mark my words.

Great analysis!

OgundeleT:

buhari will get more than the votes he got from the ss and se in 2019 if he should contest in 2019, get that fact.

Because buhari has done anything for the SE/SS?
Your name is ogundele. Only a Yoruba man can be this ignorant. That is why they always head left when the rest of the south is looking right.
Go and get the votes for him from your hut in ogbomoso.

Thunder will fire Obama and all those other American senators crying that the Russians meddled in their elections .
How did they meddle,by sponsoring adverts on Facebook
Heck Obama and Axelrod meddled in 2015 Nigerian presidential election just to rig Jonathan out and collected hefty millions of dollars from the one Amaechi provided,,,,,,,,we'll Nigerians (including Tinubu,irrespective of some patronages he has got from this govt via Osunbade) are bearing the brunt of that electoral and economic fraud that produced Buhari as president
So Ipray that Buhari will fall on Axelrod and Barack Obama

Do you also know that some of the northern states are against him due to his failing health, unless he can convince them, then he will be able to buy them over, but if the opposition party field a popular candidate from the north, then the votes from the northern states will be divided, and that's where votes from the south will augment his chances of winning the election.

Realdeals:
Buhari will get more vote from SS/SE in 2019 than 2015, the PDP will obviously field a northerner as candidate, unlike 2015.
The PDP candidate peradventure he wins, will like running for another tenure making it 12 years of northern rule. Southerners in APC knew this, that's why they are pushing Buhari second term ticket.

On what possible basis? Are you living in a parallel universe?
Is it his python dance or the slaughter of innocent people that will get him the votes or the fact that he has done practically nothing for the SE/SS, except bigotry and nepotism for the north?
I am not even talking about the influence of IPOB that was not even evident in 2015.
If your buhari gets 1% from the SE, that would be a miracle.