₦airaland Forum

SouthEastFacts:
You will never see them here. 531 views but just 31 replies and only 3 coming from SW handles.

Put anything anti IPOB, and you will see them running amok.

GoodNewsUnltd:
Great job.
I love a perfectly executed piece like this.

GoldCircle:
Fellow Nlanders, if you must counter this guy, please ensure you have facts pointing in the opposite direction lest you derail this thread with insults and unnecessary comments.

And you Mr. SouthEast facts, hope you aren’t feeding us with lies. Hope you won’t get busted. It would have been better if you quoted sources like INEC, NBS etc.

Anyways, me I don grab my popcorn. Leggo...

SouthEastFacts:
You are just talking like a kid.

How old is Nigerian democracy, calculate the number of years Igbos has served at the highest level and compare it with Yoruba's 10 years.

The 4th Republic is just 18 years, and each Region is expected to serve 8 years each, the fact the Yorubas started first didn't make them special, but to compensate them for watching helplessly as Abiola is sent beyond.

Buhari is in power because the NW didn't complete their 8 years. If not, nothing on earth would have made him President.

Assuming Jonathan ascendance didn't upset the plan, SE should be doing part of their 8 years now.

Nigerian 4th Republic is only 18 years, and you don't expect 6 regions to produce President within those 18 years.

When the time comes, all the whole gods of Yorubaland can't stop Igbo Presidency, talk more of your valueless votes.

Next time, stop commenting like a kid.

amjoseph19:
Mama nkechi...!!!! Mama nkechi...!!! kee gi? biko wetere'm this man a chilled bottle of ohm mpa.

This is a combo of of Batista bomb, shawn Michael kick and undertaker RIP in one.
Counter this undiluted fact with another fact. But they won't, they will try to drag this thread out from facts to name calling.

SouthEastFacts:
The PDP National Convention has come and gone, though many are comfortable with the outcome, but few are not, believing that they were sidelined.

This group arrogating to themselves the title of King Maker in the Nigerian political space, believes it will be disastrous for the PDP to ignore them in build up to 2019 election. They believe they can influence the outcome of any Presidential election, hence they are positioning for the PDP VP slot.

In this article, we are going to analyze the political clout of South Western Nigeria from 2011 and their impact on Presidential elections in Nigeria.

In 2011 election, the National election turnout was 52.3%, while turn out in the North was 52.8%, turn out in Eastern Nigerian (South East (66.9) and South South (67.0%)) was 67.0% while SW was 32.8% and they repeated this turn out in 2015 again.

While other regions either fell within the national average or exceeded it, South West was the only region that went below it by 37%, while South East and South South both exceeded it by 27.0%.

At the end of the election, out of the 16290593 votes casted in the South, the South West contributed 28.3% by casting only 4613712 votes, leaving South East and South South to provide the remaining 71.7%, casting 11676881.

Out of this 16290593 votes casted in the South, 13890271 votes were casted for PDP. South West even though it has the highest population in the South contributed only 20% of those votes by casting 2786417 votes, leaving South East with the lowest population and South South with the median population to contribute the other 80%, at 36% and 44% respectively and casting 4985246 and 6118608 votes respectively.

While South West contributed only 12.3% of the entire 22495187 votes PDP got at the election, South East and South South contributed 49.4%, leaving the entire North (3 regions) and FCT to provide the other 38.3%

It is important to point out that while South East gave 98.3% of their votes to PDP, South South gave 96.3%, while South West 60.4%, making them the only region that doesn't give bloc vote, while South East as PDP's strongest hold.

In 2015, South West gave 1851416 votes to PDP while giving 2433193 votes to APC, making APC win South West by a meager votes of 581777, advantage Anambra in the South East rendered useless by giving PDP 660762, returning advantage to PDP by 78985 votes.

It is important to point out that since majority of the 1851416 votes to PDP were gotten from Igbo dominated areas, should South West vote the way they did in 2015, Anambra will always be on ground to restore advantage.

While South West gave 43.2% of their votes to PDP, South East gave 93.0% of their votes to PDP while South South gave 91.8%. This again confirms South East as PDP's strongest hold and South West as the only region that doesn't give bloc votes in the South.

While South West contributed 14.4% of the total PDP's votes of 12853162 and 15.8% of APC's votes, South South and South East contributed 55.9% of PDP's votes and 4.0% of APC's votes leaving the entire North and FCT to contibute the other 29.7% of PDP's votes and 80.2% of APC's votes.

Finally it is important to point out 4 things:
1. In 2011, assuming South West gave 100% of their votes to Buhari's CPC who came second and gave nothing to PDP and other parties, Jonathan's PDP would have still won the election by 6093068 votes.

South West voted 2786417 for PDP, 1369943 for ACN, 321609 to CPC and 30906 for ANPP.

2. In 2015, assuming South West as a region decided not to vote at all, Buhari would have still won by 1989982 votes.

3. In 2015, assuming South West APC decided not to vote, allowing only South West PDP to vote for Jonathan, Buhari would have still won by 138566 votes.

4. Maybe as a result of faulty card reader recorded in the South East and South South during the election, which even caused His Excellency, the former President to try 7 times before been captured, turn out in SE fell from 66.9% in 2011 to 37% in 2015 and turn out in the South South fell from 67% in 2011 to 56% in 2015, while South West got the same turn out as in 2011. In the North, turn out in 2015 was 54.4% in Kebbi, 60% in Zamfara, while Boko Haram infested Borno, Adamawa and Yobe had an average turn out of 41.7%.

Assuming South East and South South alone voted in 2015 the way they did in 2011, with the other 4 regions and FCT voting like they did in 2015, Jonathan would have gotten 16777385 votes, beating Buhari with 1352464 votes.

In summary, experience from 1999 has taught us that South West PDP supporters are mainly Igbos and Niger Deltans, while South West APC (which metamorphosed from ACN) are mainly Yorubas.

Statistics from 2011 Presidential election equally confirms this. In that year, South West as a region alone, fielding a Northerner, Mallam Ribadu running on a Yoruba regional party ACN, gave the party 65.9% of its total vote, while contributing 89% of the Party's votes from the South, while South East and South South provided the other 11%.

Statistics from 2007, when His Excellency, the former Vice President, ran on that platform equally confirms this.

As a result of this, the South West can never offer a bloc vote. Hence, no matter who South West APC vote for, they CAN NEVER influence the outcome of any Presidential election. Their votes are just formalities.

SOURCES:
https://naijagists.com/final-inec-results-of-2015-nigerian-presidential-election-by-state-buhari-wins-21-states-gej-picks-16/

www.nigerianmuse.com/20110419040622zg/sections/general-articles/details-of-2011-presidential-election-results-in-nigeria/

Bevista:
Brilliant analysis, I must say. Provides some real perspective to regional voting patterns. I, particularly, appreciate the fact that you left your partisanship for a moment and dealt with raw data/facts
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However, I slightly disagree with your view that the low percentage votes witnessed in the SE was as result of mere low turnout. My opinion is that it was due to the use of card readers, which reduced incidence of rigging. Mind you, you cannot rig figures more than what is registered on the card readers.
---
In terms of turnout, the SS was the only region that exceeded the national average and that was due to some purported faulty card readers in many parts, hence the resort to manual accreditation. The national average was approximately 45-55% which was consistent with most regions, except the SS.
---
Come 2019, the PDP will definitely sweep the SS/SE region, but if card readers are used in all parts such that the turnout is consistent with the national average, then the absolute numbers the PDP will get will be much lower than what they got in 2015.

deomelllo:
Wetin Yoruba people got to do with you and aso rock? Shebi you are the king chest-beater maker..


Nna, politics and aso rock affairs is not about your flawed sense of entitlement with your silly you don't expect 6 regions to produce President within those 18 years. This is why you people lose all the time because you keep thinking you everything is about your turn and what you are entitled to, again, it's about relationships and alliances and it could be formed with any region based on winning formulas.

Any ticket with the SE as VP or Presidential candidate is a losing ticket, it is what it is, period.

SS/SE ticket won't fly beyond that region.

SS/SW ticket won't fly because based on your hateful ways, anti Yoruba ways and attitude and all the no man's land rubbish, it won't fly.

SE/North ticket won't fly for obvious reasons and last we checked, they practically ordered you to pack your shit and get lost back to your villages.

So, exactly how are you going to enter aso rock?


Nna, we don'tgive a shit about your turn and numbers

SouthEastFacts:
If you like vote for Buhari or Atiku, it will change nothing.

Have you seen the reason PDP returned the National Chairmanship to South South?

The real King Makers are SE and SS, but only when they are fully mobilized, if not NC holds it. NW only vote one side, hence they are held constant in every permutation.

SouthEastFacts:
I'll only respond to the boldened.

We have successfully flied North/SE tickets on three occassions.

The first was Shagari/Ekwueme which resulted to a 2 term Presidency, though the second term was truncated.

The other two was with Buhari in 2003 and 2007. The ticket sold in the North on those two occasions but was shut down by SS/SE combined votes.

This ticket won 12710022 votes in the 2003, 495169 votes more than Buhari/Bakare votes won in 2011, winning 32.19% of the votes in 2003, while Buhari/Bakare ticket won 31.8%.

In 2007, when Buhari/Ezeoke ticket contested against another strong Northerner, Yar'Adua, this ticket won 6605299 votes, 54.1% of Buhari/Bakare ticket which contested in 2011 against the most hated President in the North.

I don't believe in senseless assumptions, use facts to convince us that a North/SE ticket will not fly. In the SW yes, but in the North, No. We don't have problem with that because SW votes can't stop that ticket.

Like I said before, when the time comes, a gathering of all your gods can't stop the Igbos.

#Peace.

Bevista:
Brilliant analysis, I must say. Provides some real perspective to regional voting patterns. I, particularly, appreciate the fact that you left your partisanship for a moment and dealt with raw data/facts
---
However, I slightly disagree with your view that the low percentage votes witnessed in the SE was as result of mere low turnout. My opinion is that it was due to the use of card readers, which reduced incidence of rigging. Yes, there was rigging everywhere throughout the country, but once accreditation is done with card readers, you cannot rig figures more than what is registered on the card readers.
---
In terms of turnout, the SS was the only region that exceeded the national average and that was due to some purported faulty card readers in many parts, hence the resort to manual accreditation. The national average was approximately 45-55% which was consistent with most regions, except the SS.
---
Come 2019, the PDP will definitely sweep the SS/SE region, but if card readers are used in all parts such that the turnout is consistent with the national average, then the absolute numbers the PDP will get will be much lower than what they got in 2015.

Bevista:
Brilliant analysis, I must say. Provides some real perspective to regional voting patterns. I, particularly, appreciate the fact that you left your partisanship for a moment and dealt with raw data/facts
---
However, I slightly disagree with your view that the low percentage votes witnessed in the SE was as result of mere low turnout. My opinion is that it was due to the use of card readers, which reduced incidence of rigging. Yes, there was rigging everywhere throughout the country, but once accreditation is done with card readers, you cannot rig figures more than what is registered on the card readers.
---
In terms of turnout, the SS was the only region that exceeded the national average and that was due to some purported faulty card readers in many parts, hence the resort to manual accreditation. The national average was approximately 45-55% which was consistent with most regions, except the SS.
---
Come 2019, the PDP will definitely sweep the SS/SE region, but if card readers are used in all parts such that the turnout is consistent with the national average, then the absolute numbers the PDP will get will be much lower than what they got in 2015.

Nowenuse:
Are you sure about your 2nd and 3rd paragraphs? NW actually had a high turnout or eventually resorted to manual registration just like the SS.

The SE really dissapointed we PdP supporters in the last election.

Imagine a state like Abia state (with almighty Aba city) delivering only 380k votes. Northern states like Plateau and Kaduna (southern kaduna) axis even delivered more votes to GEJ than many core SE/SS states. Plateau state delivered about 580k votes while Kaduna delivered about 480k votes.

Nowenuse:
Are you sure about your 2nd and 3rd paragraphs? NW actually had a high turnout or eventually resorted to manual registration just like the SS.

The SE really dissapointed we PdP supporters in the last election.

Imagine a state like Abia state (with almighty Aba city) delivering only 380k votes. Northern states like Plateau and Kaduna (southern kaduna) axis even delivered more votes to GEJ than many core SE/SS states. Plateau state delivered about 580k votes while Kaduna delivered about 480k votes.

SouthEastFacts:
I don't believe that.

I believe the national average fell to 49% because SE/SS were heavily undermined.

Ok check the stat again. In 2015 SW maintained the same turn out they had in 2011, Kebbi had 54.4% turnout while Zamfara 60% which were both more than the national average in 2011, in the same 2015, Boko Haram ravaged Borno, Yobe and Adamawa had average turn out of 41.7%.

So why is it that it is only in the SE and SS that their turn out fell from 66.9% to 37% and 67% to 57% respectively? It is not possible because those two regions are Jonathan's strongest holds.

Why didn't it fall in other parts of the country?

SouthEastFacts:
I don't believe that.

I believe the national average fell to 49% because SE/SS were heavily undermined.

Ok check the stat again. In 2015 SW maintained the same turn out they had in 2011, Kebbi had 54.4% turnout while Zamfara 60% which were both more than the national average in 2011, in the same 2015, Boko Haram ravaged Borno, Yobe and Adamawa had average turn out of 41.7%.

So why is it that it is only in the SE and SS that their turn out fell from 66.9% to 37% and 67% to 57% respectively? It is not possible because those two regions are Jonathan's strongest holds.

Why didn't it fall in other parts of the country?

SouthEastFacts:
I'll only respond to the boldened.

We have successfully flied North/SE tickets on three occassions.

The first was Shagari/Ekwueme which resulted to a 2 term Presidency, though the second term was truncated.

The other two was with Buhari in 2003 and 2007. The ticket sold in the North on those two occasions but was shut down by SS/SE combined votes.

This ticket won 12710022 votes in the 2003, 495169 votes more than Buhari/Bakare votes won in 2011, winning 32.19% of the votes in 2003, while Buhari/Bakare ticket won 31.8%.

In 2007, when Buhari/Ezeoke ticket contested against another strong Northerner, Yar'Adua, this ticket won 6605299 votes, 54.1% of Buhari/Bakare ticket which contested in 2011 against the most hated President in the North.

I don't believe in senseless assumptions, use facts to convince us that a North/SE ticket will not fly. In the SW yes, but in the North, No. We don't have problem with that because SW votes can't stop that ticket.

Like I said before, when the time comes, a gathering of all your gods can't stop the Igbos.

#Peace.

senatordave1:
In 2019,buhari as an incumbent would record more votes while reducing the votes of pdp in ss/se though pdp will win while inflating apc votes in the north,a tactics obj always used and gej used in 2011.i see the northwest giving apc 10 million,pdp 1 million.north east apc 5 million pdp 1 million.in the middle belt,apc 4 million,pdp 2 million,south west apc 3 million,pdp 1 million.ss/se apc 1 million,pdp 5 million.the staggering votes pdp usually recorded in ss/se were because they had the incumbent but that cant happen again.

Truthman:
Folks,
First of all, I will suggest we all calm things down and not generate unnecessary tension. We should general avoid making comments capable of provoking ethnic/tribal wars.

@SouthEastFacts,thank you for your analysis,I consider it a good starting point for the discussion but I am of the opinion that your analysis would have been more convincing and unbiased if you had taken into account the following:
- It takes more than 2 cycles of elections to clearly establish a pattern - stretching the your analysis backwards to the commencement of the 4th republic would have helped to establish voting patterns. A general observation, I have made over the past few elections we have had is the strong influence of local factors on voters turnout in some areas i.e. PMB strong performance in North West and GEJ strong showing in the South south during 2015 election like wise Olu Falae's strong performance in the southwest during the 1999 election.

- Going by constitutional provision, a candidiate can only be deemed to have won the presidential elections if he is able to secure the highest number of votes cast and with a geographical spread (1/3 of the votes in at least 2/3 of 36 states and Abuja). So it is important for parties to be competitive in as many states as possible. This obviously was the swing factor in the 2015 elections as PMB suddenly became competitive in the states GEJ won in 2011 (SW and some North central states). As matter of fact, the 2015 elections was unique in the sense that it was the first time two parties surpassed this constitutional requirements.

Cheers

SouthEastFacts:
We chose the two elections SW was at their best, 2011 and 2015.

I'll try to extend it and see.

To become President you need to win 1/3 of the votes in at at least 2/3 of the 36 states and FCT, which translates to 24 states.

If you remove 24 states from 37, you will be left with 13. SW has only 6 states.

So even if they they didn't vote in 2015, Buhari would have still won, winning over 1/3 of the votes in 21 states forcing the election into a run-off, where this criteria wouldn't be in play.

Every Region is needed for a flawless win, but others shouldn't be parading themselves more than their worth.

#Peace

SouthEastFacts:
I am happy you observed that. It is not possible.

Something happened.

Bevista:
---
The Igbos are very enterprising and independent folks. Is it that they do not take politics as serious as other parts of the country? (They'd rather focus on business). If so, then maybe those 2011 figures were just "cooked", but it became impossible in 2015 due to the card readers.
---
My question, then, would be - Is there any chance that the voters turnout in the SE will improve in 2019?

GavelSlam:
Your stats don't appear to agree with documented evidence.

If you have credible links please provide them.

Please find below:


Nigeria presidential election: regional voter turnout
2015 2011 (approximate)

North Central 43.47 --------------- 49
North East 45.22 --------------- 56
North West 55.09 --------------- 56
South East 40.52 ---------------- 63
South South 57.81 ---------------- 62
South West 40.26 -------------- 32

2015 Presidential Election Outcome - Centre for Public Policy Alternatives
PDFcpparesearch.org › uploads › 2015/04

Nowenuse:
Really? I think Igbos do not just take politics serious. Una like to make yanga too much. I heard that in some parts of Abia, voting materials did not arrive early enough and most of the voters went back home and could not wait.

And you won't believe that faraway in Southern Kaduna (in Jema'a LGA), materials were delayed till the next day (sunday) and people waited, just because they feel they must vote for GEJ. This was why many centres were cancelled in Southern Kaduna. Otherwise, Southern Kaduna people would have neutralized Hausa fulani votes in Kaduna state just as they did in 2011.

In Bauchi state, Come and see Hausa youths who sat down on the main roads, blocking all the roads till midnight against all security personnels cos they believe that their votes must be counted in their presence.

Igbos lack the ruggedness to compete with Hausa-fulanis when it comes to Naija politics. The SS is even the one playing much of the leadership role against Hausa-fulanis.

When we saw the votes from Delta & Rivers, we had some hope for PDP.

When core hausa states like Kano, Bauchi, Katsina, Kaduna were giving Buhari bloc votes in millions, come and see what Igbo states were giving.

I guess this guy's comment below justifies Igbos. Their businesses are more important to them than national politics.

SouthEastFacts:
If this is the only flaw you found, then no problem, since they were not used in the analysis, but just stated for reference sake.

INEC don't publish any regional turn out, but only number of registered voters, number of accredited voters, number of total votes casted and number of valid votes.

While some Analysts calculate turn out using number of registered voters and number of total votes casted, example this reputable International Journal https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/2015-nigerian-presidential-election-which-factors-drive-voter-turnoutthe-most-2332-0761-1000284.php?aid=94143&view=mobile

But the right way to calculate it is using registered voters and accredited voters. This analysis used the latter.