₦airaland Forum

teepain:
Sent u a mail for some discussion, kindly reply as soon as you can. Thanks.

oodualover:
Atiku will pick an Ibo as his vice. You better accept this. Ibos won't support him if he does not do this. He has to choose an Ibo person

QuotaSystem:
You're also entitled to your own opinion, however baseless AND STEWPID.

luvmijeje:
PDP have a better chance in 2023 when the Buhari factor will be neutralize. Till then, the southern people, they know themselves, should reduce the tribal hatred. Four to five years is enough to change minds.

oodualover:
Atiku will win the SE with landslide, but Bihari will win Kwara(65-70 percent) and 55 percent Kogi.

QuotaSystem:
Even before the race starts...

Adamawa govt chooses President Buhari over Atiku Abubakar - Vanguard (2 Hours ago)

By Umar Yusuf YOLA—Adamawa State government has declared support and loyalty to President Muhammadu Buhari as candidate on the platform of All Progressives Congress, APC, for the 2019 presidential election, noting that it is not disturbed by the emergence of the former Vice President, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, as the presidential candidate of Peoples Democratic Party, PDP.

https://www.vanguardngr.com/2018/10/adamawa-govt-chooses-president-buhari-over-atiku-abubakar/

ModsareChevres:
Ibos have no choice but to support Atiku - VP or no VP. If they don't support Atiku, who will they support? Buhari? What will they gain

Atiku2019:
We just need a 45% share of Northeast and Northwest...


We will flog Buhari in Northcentral

basilo101:
Igbos know the north more than most Northerners

ModsareChevres:
As far as GEJ is alive and supporting the PDP, APC stand no chance in the SS.

buhariguy:
what will they gain if they support thief atiku?
SE will gain more in buhari than what they will gain under thief atiku.
SE has even gain more than what they gain under ineffectual buffoon.

buhariguy:
that will only be in bayelse, because rivers, cross river, akwa ibom and delta are coming to apc,
Beside, ''we SS" have not forgiven ineffectual buffoon for his failure in SS.
Buhari has done more for SS than what gej did.

PassingShot:
SE - Atiku 70% PMB 30%
SS - Atiku 65% PMB 35%
NW - Atiku 30% PMB 70%
NE - Atiku 35% PMB 65%
NC Atiku 55% - PMB - 45%
SW Atiku 40% PMB - 60%

It promises to be tough for both but I see PMB edging it.

Watch out for my analysis on it in due course.

PassingShot:
Replied.

gentlegenius:
And we in the south are waiting impatiently to retire the dullard...

https://www.nairaland.com/4762907/lets-retire-buhari-2019?_e_pi_=7%2CPAGE_ID10%2C4534009659

buhariguy:
that will only be in bayelse, because rivers, cross river, akwa ibom and delta are coming to apc,
Beside, ''we SS" have not forgiven ineffectual buffoon for his failure in SS.
Buhari has done more for SS than what gej did.

gentlegenius:
Chairman... (let me call you that because today, I am not in the mood to address you the way you are known in Nairaland).
I am from Akwa Ibom... Arguably the largest state in the South South. Of course you are right to say that APC is getting stronger in some states in the south. Even here in my state, I will not lie to you, APC is strong. But here's something you guys need to understand: Next year's presidential election is not about political parties. It is about the candidates. I have lots of friends here who are APC members, yet they have sworn never to vote buhari again. Here in the south, we don't carry parties on our head. We vote individuals. Very few people like buhari here in the south, and those few might even change their minds on election day. I am telling you the truth. I am a member of PDP. I will vote Atiku as president. Lots of people here will do the same, not because they like Atiku, but because they want buhari out. When it comes to governorship election in my state, I will vote Nsima Ekere, the NDDC boss contesting under APC. This is to prove to you that here in the south, we are not party fanatics; we vote for individuals based on what we believe they can do.

buhariguy:
before I dispute you, I want to let you know that I'm from Benin, and I'm not partisan, but just a buharist.
Ineffectual buffoon won edo because of federal might, not because we are tribalistic that because ineffectual buffoon is from SS.
Everybody in Nigeria is complaining including me and buhari which buhari is not the cause.
But Pdp that is the cause cannot be the alternative.
Anybody that hear the name atiku in Benin will say no way for atiku,
They prefer not to vote that day, while the rest of us will vote for buhari.
Edo is apc.

oodualover:
So you support a pan nigeranist? I thought you guys wanted Biafra? What changed?

QuotaSystem:
Unfortunately you failed to discount for the electoral strength of the regions. SE & SS combined are just 15 million voters strong (assuming 100% turnout).

Even with the 60% victory you've accorded to Buhari in the NW, that's 11 million votes already from the North west alone which has neutralized the entire votes of the SE (7 million) and over half of the SS votes which are Atiku's only strongholds. Remember that with Oshiomole, Amaechi, Akpabio et al the SS will be shared with President Buhari.

With a SE VP, just forget the southwest as Atiku will struggle to get 25% in most of the SW States which adds another possible 10 million votes to Buhari's kitty.

For the reasons I stated, PMB will also sweep the NE but I don't expect a fact-lacking person to agree. In fact, we haven't even accounted for federal might and the extra million votes PMB will get in Boko haram freed regions where people couldn't vote in 2015 due to PDP's corruption and incompetence in battling the insurgency .

The only states where votes will be significantly shared are the 4 states in the NC already mentioned. Clear victory for PMB to the discerning.

2019 is pregnant .

QuotaSystem:
You're also entitled to your own opinion, however baseless.

tuniski:
Atiku hasn't been a loser in Adamawa in any election on a major party's ticket. 1999,2003 VP to OBJ.
The AC adventure was a renegade thing in 2007.
2019 Atiku/PdP will win total aggregate votes in NE/NC. He will win landslide SS/SE while being competitive in SW. Only NW will he be limited to 30 to 35 Percentage showing!

Atiku is the incoming president!

QuotaSystem:
To put it plainly, apart from Taraba, Benue, Plateau & Nassarawa States, President Muhammadu Buhari is poised to sweep the votes of the remaining 15 northern states, for the following reasons:

1. The "Amana" factor.

A lot of southerners often wonder the basis of the cult-like following PMB commands in the North - the reason is not far fetched.

The Hausa-fulani people in particular, place a huge value on the concept of "Amana" (trust/to hold in trust), a value which Buhari's track record of integrity (whether disputed or not) is clearly aligned with. Despite media propaganda, most of these people who are more politically informed than their average southern counterparts, are aware that not a single charge of corruption has stuck on their revered PMB, amidst corruption allegations among his cronies. Atiku loses massively in this respect because of his track record of corruption (BPE, Haliburton, $16b power scam, unexplained source of wealth etc.) which presents him as an untrustworthy leader to most northerners.

Furthermore, PMB's seemingly north-centric agenda regarding appointments, infrastructure projects (roads, rails, ports) and focus on agriculture assures most northerners that their interests would be well protected under his administration, in contrast to Atiku who is perceived to be likely to make concessions and appeasements to the East whose support he is mostly riding on going by recent trends. Atiku also loses big in this regard.

2. The South Eastern VP Factor

If Atiku gives in to the clamor for his running mate to emerge from the East, then he stands to lose massive votes from the core north for obvious reasons.

Firstly, the deep political antagonism and anti-north stance from Igbos, which has characterized the national space and been amplified since the defeat of Jonathan and rise of IPOB/Nnamdi Kanu and their hate speech, will deeply hurt Atiku's chances because not only will it mean the North would be taking the extreme bigotry, insults and political antagonism from the East right on the chin with no consequences, it would also mean the possibility of an Igbo successor to Atiku - a people known for their contempt for Nigeria's unity and secessionist aspirations.

In addition, a SE VP will also cost Atiku significant SW votes - a sub-region with the second largest number of registered voters (14 million).

3. The Boko Haram Factor

In sharp contrast to the generally held notion among some in the south that Atiku would sweep the NE because it's his home region, the strides recorded by PMB in the fight against Boko Haram heavily neutralizes that effect. I am not talking about social media noise, but the perceptions of people directly affected by Boko Haram activities and are experiencing a gradual return to normalcy since PMB took office.

Yola (Adamawa) for example, Atiku's own home capital, has experienced peace since PMB's onslaught on BH like they never saw since Boko Haram emerged under the past PDP administration - this was formerly a ghost town that used to suffer deadly BH attacks daily with dusk-till-dawn curfews, which has since been lifted and attacks reduced to suicide bombings and guerrilla attacks on soft targets, which are reducing on a monthly basis. This was a state that had several LGA's under Boko Haram's rule during PDP's administration and the people aren't quick to forget the corruption that marred the fight against BH in Dasuki fashion.

Maiduguri is back to it's bustling state with dozens of NGO's providing humanitarian services to help with the ongoing rebuilding efforts, people are now free to watch El-Kanem FC matches in the township stadium, and trans-border economic trade (mostly fish) is gradually being restored. The return of the Chibok and Dapchi girls also adds points to PMB's profile in the sub-region. If by God's grace the FG is able to secure the release of Leah Sharibu then that would be a hat-trick. I personally spoke to a "Kube" (traditional hausa cap) dealer from Borno recently and these were the exact sentiments he expressed as he professed support for Buhari's candidacy.

Final Note

It is very valid to permute that the votes from the 4 excluded northern states (Benue, Plateau, Nassarawa, Taraba) will be shared by both candidates as federal might will play out (both parties will rig anyway). With 19 million registered voters in the North West and 10 million in the North East which are largely homogenic, it is safe to say anyone who loses these key regions has lost the 2019 elections. With another 14 million registered voters in the SW which is APC's stronghold and Atiku's slant towards choosing a SE VP, his campaign team should be very worried.

Note that this is not to say Atiku will not record a sizable number of votes from the Northern States, but the ratio will pale in significance to Buhari's potential landslide victory in the region. - Q.S

QuotaSystem:
To put it plainly, apart from Taraba, Benue, Plateau & Nassarawa States, President Muhammadu Buhari is poised to sweep the votes of the remaining 15 northern states, for the following reasons:

1. The "Amana" factor.

A lot of southerners often wonder the basis of the cult-like following PMB commands in the North - the reason is not far fetched.

The Hausa-fulani people in particular, place a huge value on the concept of "Amana" (trust/to hold in trust), a value which Buhari's track record of integrity (whether disputed or not) is clearly aligned with. Despite media propaganda, most of these people who are more politically informed than their average southern counterparts, are aware that not a single charge of corruption has stuck on their revered PMB, amidst corruption allegations among his cronies. Atiku loses massively in this respect because of his track record of corruption (BPE, Haliburton, $16b power scam, unexplained source of wealth etc.) which presents him as an untrustworthy leader to most northerners.

Furthermore, PMB's seemingly north-centric agenda regarding appointments, infrastructure projects (roads, rails, ports) and focus on agriculture assures most northerners that their interests would be well protected under his administration, in contrast to Atiku who is perceived to be likely to make concessions and appeasements to the East whose support he is mostly riding on going by recent trends. Atiku also loses big in this regard.

2. The South Eastern VP Factor

If Atiku gives in to the clamor for his running mate to emerge from the East, then he stands to lose massive votes from the core north for obvious reasons.

Firstly, the deep political antagonism and anti-north stance from Igbos, which has characterized the national space and been amplified since the defeat of Jonathan and rise of IPOB/Nnamdi Kanu and their hate speech, will deeply hurt Atiku's chances because not only will it mean the North would be taking the extreme bigotry, insults and political antagonism from the East right on the chin with no consequences, it would also mean the possibility of an Igbo successor to Atiku - a people known for their contempt for Nigeria's unity and secessionist aspirations.

In addition, a SE VP will also cost Atiku significant SW votes - a sub-region with the second largest number of registered voters (14 million).

3. The Boko Haram Factor

In sharp contrast to the generally held notion among some in the south that Atiku would sweep the NE because it's his home region, the strides recorded by PMB in the fight against Boko Haram heavily neutralizes that effect. I am not talking about social media noise, but the perceptions of people directly affected by Boko Haram activities and are experiencing a gradual return to normalcy since PMB took office.

Yola (Adamawa) for example, Atiku's own home capital, has experienced peace since PMB's onslaught on BH like they never saw since Boko Haram emerged under the past PDP administration - this was formerly a ghost town that used to suffer deadly BH attacks daily with dusk-till-dawn curfews, which has since been lifted and attacks reduced to suicide bombings and guerrilla attacks on soft targets, which are reducing on a monthly basis. This was a state that had several LGA's under Boko Haram's rule during PDP's administration and the people aren't quick to forget the corruption that marred the fight against BH in Dasuki fashion.

Maiduguri is back to it's bustling state with dozens of NGO's providing humanitarian services to help with the ongoing rebuilding efforts, people are now free to watch El-Kanem FC matches in the township stadium, and trans-border economic trade (mostly fish) is gradually being restored. The return of the Chibok and Dapchi girls also adds points to PMB's profile in the sub-region. If by God's grace the FG is able to secure the release of Leah Sharibu then that would be a hat-trick. I personally spoke to a "Kube" (traditional hausa cap) dealer from Borno recently and these were the exact sentiments he expressed as he professed support for Buhari's candidacy.

Final Note

It is very valid to permute that the votes from the 4 excluded northern states (Benue, Plateau, Nassarawa, Taraba) will be shared by both candidates as federal might will play out (both parties will rig anyway). With 19 million registered voters in the North West and 10 million in the North East which are largely homogenic, it is safe to say anyone who loses these key regions has lost the 2019 elections. With another 14 million registered voters in the SW which is APC's stronghold and Atiku's slant towards choosing a SE VP, his campaign team should be very worried.

Note that this is not to say Atiku will not record a sizable number of votes from the Northern States, but the ratio will pale in significance to Buhari's potential landslide victory in the region. - Q.S

Obi1kenobi:
1) The cult-like following Buhari enjoys in the North has little to do with the perception of incorruptibility. Stop deluding yourself. He enjoys the same cult-followership that any big-name old military administrator would enjoy. I bet you that even Sani Abacha would enjoy a cult followership if he was alive today to participate in Nigerian politics. It's a function of the feudal legacy of the North where an established elite easily mobilize the political sentiments of the plebeian class. It's one of the reasons no one does mass-slaughtering riots like the core North. If you're empowered as a politician or cleric, give Northern youths any command and they'd do your bidding. Northern plebs are the most impressionable voters in Nigeria and almost accord divine status to their betters. To say they are more politically informed that Southerners is beyond absurd. All the maiguards in my street where Sai Buhari chanters during the 2015 elections. I can assure you there was nothing informed about their support on any issues of substance.

2) Stop throwing around words like "bigotry" about other people. The core North is the most bigoted region in Nigeria. It's the region where all outsiders tiptoe around on eggshells terrified at what they would do to offend vengeful, blood-thirsty, intolerant locals. The region where Igbo people and other Southerners get butchered because a cartoonist in Denmark drew an offensive Mohammed cartoon. Where fatwas are pronounced on Southern journalists. Where a parallel constitution called Sharia law was adopted because locals are intolerant of the liberties of outsiders. Where a number of pogroms have been enacted against non-indigenes. Facebook noisemakers are positively tame compared with that.

3) Buhari's gains against Boko Haram were a continuation of the gains made under Jonathan (Buhari funny enough was quoted criticizing the military campaign against Boko Haram). It's a bit like how Trump took over when most of ISIS' territorial gains were reversed and ISIS were in retreat, but Trump tries to take the glory for rounding up what everyone knew was dead-certain defeat. Boko Haram's insurgency is still ongoing and may go on for several more years, but their territorial gains were never going to be sustainable seeing as they are built for guerrilla insurgency and not capturing territory. The Buhari administration has recently been trying to force people off IDP camps back to their homes that are still threatened by Boko Haram, when by all reports, those areas are still not safe. He was doing it to inflate the gains he made. If NE people believe the picture is rosy, they are uninformed.

GEJ to be honest was a pretty clueless leader. But this administration (which I voted for) is no better. What this administration has demonstrated is they are in a class of their own for sheer propagandizing. This has been the most effective government in propaganda I have seen in my lifetime. They're very good at it.
I do believe Buhari will win in 2019, partly because his followership is cult-like. But also because this administration has proven more desperate than the last in what extremes they are willing to go to to win as proven recently in Osun and Ekiti. INEC's progress over the years has been compromised by the single-minded desperation of this administration.

abduljabbar4:
Whose son is this? Total aggregate in NE/NW?

You need to get some blood pumped into your brain. The op and i are northerners unlike you

tuniski:
Sannu ko. What makes you More northern than me or even old enuff to be my mate?
Anyway, except you are holed up in NW, the NE/NC are atikulated!

abduljabbar4:
Those guys will never agree with you. Just wait by 2019 they will start accusing buhari of rigging and calling for International intervention again. Za su sha mamaki ai

Shuku0kukobambi:
As in ehn, I wonder how adults will just sit down, create a hype for themselves and be believing the same hype they created. How deluded can people be?

tuniski:
Sannu ko. What makes you More northern than me or even old enuff to be my mate?
Anyway, except you are holed up in NW, the NE/NC are atikulated!