₦airaland Forum

afroniger:
Anambra election in particular will be very interesting because I have a feeling that even though Atiku will win the state, PDP may not be allowed to have a field day rigging the state like they did in 2015 because APGA will neutralize that because Obiano has showed that he's not afraid to maintain his independence. Even today, the state isn't as fired up as one would have expected even with Obi on the ticket. Atiku will definitely win the state but it may not be by as much as many people think.

Parko:
From my point of view
Abia pdp
Adamawa pdp
Akwa Ibom pdp
Anambra pdp
Bauchi apc
Bayelsa pdp
Benue pdp
Borno apc
Cross River pdp
Delta pdp
Ebonyi pdp
Edo pdp
Ekiti apc
Enugu pdp
Gombe apc
Imo pdp
Jigawa apc
Kaduna apc
Kano apc
Katsina apc
Kebbi apc
Kogi pdp
Kwara pdp
Lagos pdp
Nasarawa pdp
Niger apc
Ogun pdp
Ondo apc
Osun pdp
Oyo apc
Plateau pdp
Rivers pdp
Sokoto apc
Taraba pdp
Yobe apc
Zamfara pdp
FCT. Pdp

DrGoodman:
Too many children here

Obiano and Obi his mentor are on the same page on everything. Anambra ppl are educated and will vote Obi to the last man. All Igbos too. Stop listening to nonsense news.

afroniger:
Why then did Obiano reject Ohanaeze's endorsement of Atiku if he's on the same page with his 'mentor'? Look, it's an open-secret that there's still an ongoing cold-war between Obiano and his former godfather. You can pretend all you want that it isn't so but that's the truth.

raumdeuter:
The only state I disagree with is AkwaIbom

landmark86:
In a nutshell Buhari will WIN

If you support the write up let me see ur hands up

DrGoodman:
They are just wishing a tree can make a forest. Akpabio is based in Abuja and most people here are unaware he even went to APc

dguyindcorner:
This is the Summary brethren:

NORTH EAST
Bauchi - APC
Borno - APC
Yobe - APC
Taraba - PDP
Gombe - APC
Adamawa - CLOSE CALL


NORTH CENTRAL
Kwara - CLOSE CALL
Kogi - CLOSE CALL
Benue - PDP
Plateau - CLOSE CALL
Niger - APC
Nasarawa - CLOSE CALL


NORTH WEST
Kano - APC
Zamfara - APC
Kaduna - APC
Katsina - APC
Kebbi - APC
Sokoto - APC
Jigawa - APC


SOUTH WEST
Ogun - APC
Lagos - APC
Oyo - APC
Ondo - APC
Osun - APC
Ekiti - APC


SOUTH EAST
Anambra - PDP
Enugu - PDP
Abia - PDP
Imo - PDP
Ebonyi - PDP



SOUTH SOUTH
Bayelsa - PDP
Rivers - PDP
Delta - PDP
Edo - APC
Akwa Ibom - APC
Cross River - PDP


FINAL VERDICT - BUHARI (APC)

RTSC:
When I saw "buhari will win akwa ibom" , I just stopped reading, even though I didn't expect anything better from tinubu anyway.

He is a principal player in the election and I don't expect an unbiased analysis.

You can like it all you want, it won't affect realities on the ground.

XaintJoel20:
Trash...

Anyone who thinks PMB will win Edo State is a retard...

Indispensable85:
You're actually the one in Abuja,because I've watched more than 10 different Apc rally in Akwa ibom live on tv spearheaded by Akpabio.

Clerverly:
The Nation http://thenationonlineng.net/buhari-vs-atiku-how-states-will-vote-ii/


BUHARI VS ATIKU: HOW STATES WILL VOTE (II)
Yusuf Alli, Managing Editor, Northern Operation; Sam Egburonu, Associate Editor and Dare Odufowokan, Assistant Editor by Yusuf Alli, Managing Editor, Northern Operation; Sam Egburonu, Associate Editor and Dare Odufowokan, Assistant Editor February 9, 2019
BUHARI VS ATIKU: HOW STATES WILL VOTE (II)
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In six days, Nigerians across the 36 states would be queuing up in their millions to decide the 2019 presidential contest. In this piece, Yusuf Alli, Managing Editor, Northern Operation; Sam Egburonu, Associate Editor and Dare Odufowokan, Assistant Editor, report on the chances of the parties – especially the biggest one – the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and main opposition People’s Democratic Party (PDP) – who given their spread have best chance of claiming the prize.
It is not a quantitative projection where percentage of likely votes would be assigned. Rather it is based on our analysis of traditional voting patterns, current trends, the issues driving the current campaigns as well as the critical personalities who determine which way zones and states may go. It bears repeating that our projections for the 2015 polls – reproduced on page 27 – were largely correct.

NIGERIANS go to the polls in less than a week to decide who of two septuagenarians would run the country for the next four years.The voters’ register published several weeks ago by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), shows that 84, 004, 084 million Nigerians are eligible to vote. Although, significantly less than that number are expected to make it to the polling booths because as at Friday, February 8, millions of permanent voters cards (PVCs) were yet to be collected across the country – forcing INEC to extend the collection deadline to Monday, February 11.

The zonal summary of registered voters is as follows: 12,841, 279 (South-South); 16, 292, 212 (South-West); 10, 057, 130 (South-East);

13,366,070 (North-Central); 20,158,100 (North-West); and 11, 289, 293 (North-East).

Irrespective of the benchmarks adopted, the battlegrounds remain the Northern axis with 44,813,463 votes and the South-West having 16,292,212 votes. Out of the nation’s 84,004,084 eligible voters, the North and the South-West control 61,105,675: whatever happens in these zones could be decisive.

Not surprisingly, the frontrunners – APC and PDP – have been trying to outwit each other from state to state. Last year witnessed a flurry of movements of key political figures across party lines. Some of these individuals are very influential and could have a say in determining the outcome, come February 16.



However, on-the-ground assessments by our correspondents in different states suggest that despite these defections and the nation’s security and economic challenges, we may not see radical changes in the electoral map.



The main contest is expected to pitch Muhammadu Buhari of the APC against long-standing aspirant, Atiku Abubakar of the PDP. The Social Democratic Party (SDP) has adopted Buhari as its candidate – citing the legal tussle between former Cross River State Governor Donald Duke and former minister Professor Jerry Gana for the party’s ticket. Atiku has equally been endorsed by some elders of known socio- political groups like Ohanaeze, Northern Elders Forum, Afenifere, Middle Belt Forum and Niger Delta association. Some other members of these bodies have repudiated the endorsement and have instead either adopted Buhari or other candidates. Commodore Dan Suleiman of the Middle Belt Forum, for instance, has kicked against the adoption of Atiku and reinterated the adoption of businessman Gbenga Olawepo- Hashim of the Peoples Trust Party.

Other notable candidates include former former Central Bank of Nigeria Deputy Governor, Professor Kingsley Moghalu of Young Progressives Party (YPP), Fela Durotoye of Alliance for New Nigeria (ANN) and Omoyele Sowore of the African Action Congress.

Dr. Oby Ezekwesili of the Allied Congress Party of Nigeria (ACPN), has voluntarily dropped out of the race, but INEC is refusing to accept her withdrawal, insisting her party’s name would still be on the ballot.

A lot of youths appear to be rooting for Sowore and Durotoye. They don’t want both Buhari and Atiku. Many of them know that their preferred candidates cannot win, but they don’t want the two grandees. Many of them in Lagos, Abuja and other cosmopolitan cities could cast their votes for these fringe candidates. The real loser here will be Atiku, as Buhari’s base – the grassroots – seems to be very solid.


In the Southeast, Moghalu may also get sizeable votes. Many voters in the region believe he is the best candidate in terms of articulation and capacity to solve the nation’s socio- economic problems. Again, Atiku will be the loser as the zone is traditional PDP territory.

In the Middle Belt or North Central, Atiku could also lose votes to Olawepo-Hashim if those backing the latter truly work for him. Any loss of votes to third party candidates depletes what should ordinarily go to the PDP’s candidate.

As the clock ticks away towards Election Day, these are our projections regarding likely outcomes in the presidential election from state to state, if the polls were held today.



NORTH EAST ZONE



BAUCHI STATE

Ordinarily, this is an electoral fortress for Buhari who garnered 931,598 votes in the state in 2015 compared with a paltry 86,085 votes received by ex-President Goodluck Jonathan. But the coalition which brought Governor Mohammed Abubakar to power during the last poll collapsed – leading to a major crack in APC and the dwindling of the party’s fortunes.

Until Buhari and the APC pulled a fast one, the state was almost lost to the PDP going by massive defections from the ruling party to the opposition. Among those who left was the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Yakubu Dogara. Armed with an impressive war-chest, a former Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Senator Bala Mohammed, also revved up the PDP in the state with the choice of Baba Tella (a grassroots politician) as his running mate for the governorship race. The ex-minister, who is from Bauchi South Senatorial District like the governor might split the votes from the zone.Other factors in favour of the Bauchi PDP are Dogara (who commands the strong following among Christians and minorities in the state) and a former Majority Leader in the House of Representatives, Abdul Ningi.

However, in recent weeks, Buhari and APC have embarked on a salvage mission which is paying off for the party. Apart from wooing ex-Governor Isa Yuguda to the ruling party, the President has also courted aformer National Chairman of PDP, Adamu Mu’azu, the immediate past Deputy National Chairman (North) of PDP, Sen. Garba Babayo Gamawa and a Board of Trustees member, Alhaji Kaulaha Aliyu. The major heavyweights in Bauchi politics are back in APC to give more bite to the campaign of the party. This is the first time Yuguda and Mu’azu will join forces politically to campaign for the same candidate and party. But the fate of APC depends on more reconciliation because some of its stalwarts like ex-Minister Yakubu Lame, Capt. Bala Jibrin and others might lead internal revolt and deliver protest votes against Governor Abubakar next month. A foretaste of wrangling within APC happened recently in Azare and Misau (Katagum Emirate) when

the governor’s campaign entourage was pelted with stones by angry citizens.Except for the Emir of Katagum, most of the Emirs in the state are reportedly unhappy with the governor although they usually pretend and tag along with him. Yet these royal fathers wield enormous political influence.Following realignment of forces in the state, the APC may still retain the grip. The APC and PDP have had impressive campaigns in the state with massive turnout of their supporters at their rallies.

However, we project that Buhari’s mass appeal would make the difference – leading to a very comfortable win for him.

Verdict: Buhari to win.



BORNO STATE

In spite of the insurgency, Borno is still a stronghold of the APC and Buhari. The people of the state have undiluted loyalty to the president and his commitment to the war against Boko Haram has strengthened their political bond with him. The humble and unifying disposition of Governor Kashim Shettima in governing the state have also left APC more united for a straightforward victory at the polls. Initially, there were fears that the imposition of a former Commissioner for Reconstruction, Rehabilitation and Resettlement, Prof. Babagana Zulum as the APC governorship candidatemight create crisis, but the governor managed the stakeholders with maturity.The return of a former National Chairman of PDP, Senator Ali Modu Sheriff to APC, which he assisted to form, has been a game-changer which has left PDP in quandary.

The seemingly intractable crisis in opposition party in the state has affected its fortunes. Since the ill-fated governorship primaries of the party, it has broken into two factions led by Alhaji Usman Baderi and Alhaji Zanna Gadama respectively. The PDP is not only in bad shape to promote its governorship candidate, Mohammed Alkali Imam, it is yet to win the confidence of the masses of the war-torn state. The defection of the highly-respected ex-Governor of old Borno State, Alhaji Mohammed Goni (1979-1983) from PDP to APC has made the victory of APC a fait accompli.There are 2,315,956 votes available in the state and APC may win with a landslide. In 2015, of the 510,920 valid votes cast, Buhari received a massive 473,543 – leaving a paltry 25,640 for ex-President Goodluck Jonathan. Nothing has happened in the last four years to suggest a significant change in likely outcome. Buhari could score more votes in the state with the relative peace it now enjoys. Verdict: Buhari



YOBE STATE

A politically homogenous enclave, Yobe State has been traditionally progressive since 1999. It has always voted against PDP despite its political transformation from All Peoples Party (APP) to All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) and APC. The smooth transition of power laid down by the first civilian governor of the state, Senator Bukar Abba Ibrahim has helped in consolidating its progressive credentials. The Kanuri-Fulani collaboration has made the state impregnable for the opposition. But the Kanuri have been governing the state since its creation.Although the PDP is rebranding itself with the emergence of Ambassador Umar Iliya Damagum as its consensus gubernatorial candidate, the party is still weak. Its weakness was fueled by the crisis of

confidence between ex-Minister of Police Affairs, Adamu Maina Waziri, who has been the sole gubernatorial flagbearer of the party since1999, and the current Senator representing Yobe South Senatorial Zone, Mohammed Hassan. They both emerged from parallel primaries.In 2015, APC received 446,265 votes as opposed to just 25,256 for the PDP. This pattern is set to repeated as Buhari’s appeal remains strong here.

Verdict: Buhari



TARABA STATE

This is one Northeastern state where analysts expect PDP to do well. Governor Darius Ishaku is still popular and former Minister of Defence, Lt. General Theophilus Danjuma who is the governor’s political godfather, remains highly influential. He has not hidden his opposition to a second term bid by Buhari.The security problems which the state underwent in the last three years with ethnic undertone have not helped electoral chances of the APC. The defection of ex-Minister of Women Affairs, Aishatu Jummai Alhassan from APC to United Democratic Party (UDP) has made the latter to lose its soul. The internal wrangling within APC has not put it ingood stead for next month’s election. Still, the massive turnout for last Thursday’s APC presidential rally in Jalingo, the state capital, has become a talking point. While the PDP is still expected to prevail here, the ruling party would give it a close fight. In 2015, the difference between the parties was roughly 50,000 votes. PDP raked in 310,800, while APC managed 261, 326 votes. A re -enactment is likely.

Verdict: Atiku



GOMBE STATE

Initially, it was thought that the contest between APC and PDP in Gombe State would be a keen one. The outgoing Governor Ibrahim Dankwambo is trying to assert himself as the new kingmaker. Against all odds, he won re-election in 2015, a development which cast a little shadow on the political profile of his erstwhile godfather, ex-Minister Danjuma Goje, who is trying to regain control of the state. Goje had in 2015 pitched his favourite ex-Commissioner for Finance, Mohammed Inuwa Yahaya as the governorship candidate of APC, but he lost the battle. Now, he is back in the trenches with Dankwambo.For the governorship race, ethnic colouration and the need for power shift might determine which between the APC or PDP wins the race to the Government House. In the past 16 years, Goje and Dankwambo from Gombe Central Senatorial District have ruled the state and there is agitation to allow power to shift to another zone.While Goje is sticking to Inuwa Yahaya (an Hausa from Gombe Central), PDP and Dankwambo have opted for ex-Deputy Speaker of theHouse of Representatives, Senator Bayero Nafada, who is a Fulani from Gombe North.The PDP has a big hurdle to cross in this election . The hurdle is his alleged refusal to honour his pledge to give Gombe South a shot at the governorship race. The party on October 3 lost Sardauna Gombe, Alhaji Jamilu Isiyaku Gwamna who defected from PDP to APC. Gwamna’s parting of ways with PDP has made the race keener.For the presidential poll, ethnic fault lines will be sole determinants. The ethnic groups in the state are Fulani (Northern part); Tangale (Southern part); Hausa, Tera, Waja, Bolewa, and Kanuri. Both Buhari and Atiku are of Fulani stock.

However, Buhari’s mesmerizing connection with the masses of the people would see him win the state handily again. In 2015, APC polled 361,245 votes as against 96,873 for PDP. Watchers of politics in the state expect a similar thing on Saturday.

Verdict: Buhari



ADAMAWA STATE

Adamawa has been a PDP state since 1999 until the APC’s 2015 bandwagon altered its political focus. The next poll in the state will draw more attention than elsewhere because the PDP presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar is from there; Buhari married from the state to make the First Lady, Hajiya Aisha Buhari, equally a factor in the presidential race.

The likely factors in the state are religion, ethnicity, security challenges, the political elite, money, and good governance. If performance is anything to reckon with, Governor Jibrilla Umaru Bindow’s achievements will make it an easy ride for APC.

Unfortunately, some political leaders are angry with the governor, who is a minority, for not looting and sharing the state resources. But Bindow has upped the ante in the state and his performance benchmark will create a hurdle for his successor.

Four parties are competing for space in the state. They are APC, PDP, the Social Democratic Party (SDP) and the African Democratic Congress (ADC) being led by Senator Abdul-Aziz Nyako, who is also the governorship candidate of the party. His father, Vice Admiral Murtala Nyako was a former governor of the state. While Bindow is the governorship flag bearer of APC, ex-Acting Governor Umaru Fintiri is the candidate of the PDP and Marcus Gundiri has earned the ticket of SDP.

The gruesome killing of a former Chief of Defence Staff, Air Chief Marshal Alex Badeh (rtd), has affected the fortunes of SDP because he was alleged to be a major sponsor of the party’s candidate.

For Atiku, it has been topsy-turvy experience for him in the state. He was instrumental to the emergence of Boni Haruna as the governor from 1999-2007 but after a cold war with ex-President Olusegun Obasanjo, he lost the initiative to the ex-President who wielded incumbency influence to anoint Vice Admiral Nyako for the gubernatorial seat.

Although Atiku attempted to install a governorship candidate in 2015 under the banner of APC, he failed in his bid because Bindow defeated his preferred candidate twice at the primaries.

Having a president from a state can be a source of pride, but it will be a tough task for Atiku to prevail in his home state. Buhari’s popularity was in evidence during the APC’s presidential campaign rally in Yola on Thursday. The government’s success in blunting the Boko Haram insurgency here is also a plus.

Buhari won here in 2015, garnering 374,701 votes as opposed to 251,664 for Jonathan. While it is tempting to cede the state to him, Atiku being on home turf is equally a powerful factor to consider. Expect a major electoral battle here. Adamawa may be too close to call.

Verdict: Battleground

XaintJoel20:
Trash...

Anyone who thinks PMB will win Edo State is a retard...

XaintJoel20:
Trash...

Anyone who thinks PMB will win Edo State is a retard...

dguyindcorner:
This is the Summary brethren:

NORTH EAST
Bauchi - APC
Borno - APC
Yobe - APC
Taraba - PDP
Gombe - APC
Adamawa - CLOSE CALL


NORTH CENTRAL
Kwara - CLOSE CALL
Kogi - CLOSE CALL
Benue - PDP
Plateau - CLOSE CALL
Niger - APC
Nasarawa - CLOSE CALL


NORTH WEST
Kano - APC
Zamfara - APC
Kaduna - APC
Katsina - APC
Kebbi - APC
Sokoto - APC
Jigawa - APC


SOUTH WEST
Ogun - APC
Lagos - APC
Oyo - APC
Ondo - APC
Osun - APC
Ekiti - APC


SOUTH EAST
Anambra - PDP
Enugu - PDP
Abia - PDP
Imo - PDP
Ebonyi - PDP



SOUTH SOUTH
Bayelsa - PDP
Rivers - PDP
Delta - PDP
Edo - APC
Akwa Ibom - APC
Cross River - PDP


FINAL VERDICT - BUHARI (APC)

jamejanev:
Just wake up, Saturday is for Buhari. Prepare ur mind guy

DrGoodman:
On TV
Maybe from Punjab, India

You must be a comedian. I am on ground, Akpabio lost our respect the day he was seen in APC.

buspid:


Atiku might eventually lose in Adamawa. Buba Marwa, Ribadu, Senator Binta and Jibrilla himself are strong forces that would prevent Atiku from winning the state. Aisha might not be a force but her siblings are also forces to reckon with in Adamawa.

RTSC:
The writer is optimistically pro apc just as we expect.

My concern is that the real elections should not be rigged with Biro like this.

jamejanev:
APC will do what PDP knows how to do. We know PDP as chief rigger, APC will rig it and heaven will not fall. I can bet it with everything, Buhari will win on Saturday, unless he dies, but if he is alive, Saturday is sure for Baba. If u don't like it, go and commit suicide.

senatordave1:
Thats how most pdp fans are,senseless and ridiculous.

RTSC:
If apc rigs it, the pdp will declare a parallel president just like amaechi threatened in 2015.

Venezuela would be a child's play.

jamejanev:
I think ure still sleeping. Do u think Adam Osho will allow Atiku to win Edo, even if to rig it for APC, he will do everything. Just take heart, Buhari is taking Saturday. I will laugh u guys come Saturday.