A SCIENTIFIC TRIANGULAR PREDICTION MODEL FOR THE 2019 NIGERIA PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

By

Prof. Umar Adamu Danbatta,
Geology Department,
A.B.U. Zaria.

E-mail: uabatta@yahoo.com

ABSTRACT
It has become a popular pastime for political pundits and scholars alike to predict the winner of presidential elections, especially in the U.S.A. and other European countries. Forecasting by economists and political scientists for predicting the results of this quadrennial ritual, has now taken a global insight in predicting who will become the next president in a country. With the February 2019 Nigeria presidential election looming, we use historical perspectives that incorporate our estimators into a dynamic triangular model to determine the probability of which candidate will win the nest presidential election in Nigeria. We took two political variables of the state of origin of the Presidents and their Vice-Presidents as the main indicators, plugs them into a triangular formula that has correctly predicted the outcome in almost all the 5 last presidential elections that were held in the country in 1999, 2003, 2007, 2011, and 2015. The triangular formula aims to quantify the old geologic-political principle that “the past is the key to the present”. The method falls under the realm of scientific correlations of past data in order to predict what will likely happen next. The present model suggests that the outlook for the People Democratic Party (PDP) is negative in this year’s presidential election.

INTRODUCTION
In case you haven't heard, there's an election in the country tomorrow. Although Nigerians have followed with mixed feelings as the drumbeats of the 2019 political season intensifies, the election offers us a rare moment to-sit back and reflect on the pattern of geo-political development of the country. Over the last three decades, economists and political scientists have developed a variety of regression models to forecast presidential elections.

The object of science, philosophy and history include the study of the records of our past events in order to understand their relevance today. As such we need to understand the intricate triangular geo-political arrangement of power rotation from state to state for the benefit of those who are not familiar. Events in life are the determinants and ingredients of historical facts which are sacrosanct and objective. God knows the future but only historians can alter the past and this article is about the use of triangles generated from past recorded power rotation in the country to predict the next president of Nigeria.

There exist only a limited number of states that had produced the 14 Heads of States/Presidents that had ruled the country. These are namely Kano State, Ogun State, Katsina State, Sokoto State, Niger State and now Bayelsa State. These States of origin of former rulers in the country had in the past played a role in who becomes a President in the country and this is probably not going to change, whatever is the public perception.

It is therefore very imperative that we need to intellectually investigate and understand the actions and tools that control the movement and retention of power in these few states, and placed them in their right perspective. The main aim of this presentation is to highlight a triangular scientific method that I had used to predict past Nigeria presidential elections, as well as use the same insight to predict who will become the next president in Nigeria.

The critical observer would perceive and recognize the fact that the States of origin of the Presidents and their Vice-Presidents are the main historical indicators that determine the context of power rotation in the country since independence. When you plug these States into a triangular pattern, the formed a framework that control, highlights and determines the rules of political engagement in the manner of governing this country.

Nigeria has a multi-party system, with two or three strong parties and a third party that is electorally successful. One of the elements of the Nigerian presidential election is that the president is elected by the residents in each state who vote for the candidate they support. The voting at the state level need to be taken into account and this presentation is trying to model an observed variable: the triangular behavior of States that produced previous presidents in the country.

This triangular variable is then used to predict the next president which is a national issue that requires us to correctly forecast which of the major two parties is expected to win the 2019 presidential election. To make simply this discussion, it is safe to ignore lesser contenders, so in this model only Buhari and Atiku are in the race, despite the fact that there are many contestants. The battle is a straight one and whoever satisfied the all the election criteria and gets more votes wins.

THE TRIANGLE THEORY
Many analysts have asked whether any future prediction on the politics of our great country will stand. Indeed, the present use of triangle for prediction as theorized here had solid science behind it, as explained below. Triangulation is the division of a surface or plane polygon into a set of triangles usually with the restriction that each triangle side is entirely shared by two adjacent triangles.

A surface with a finite number of triangles in its triangulation is called compact. If you put three points anywhere in space (not in a straight line) you have exactly one plane that goes through all the three points. This is unique to three points, as adding more points will not give you a plane and reducing the points will give you multiple planes. This is very useful as it means that a three-legged stool will be stable no matter how uneven the ground is (provided the ground is not so uneven that the stool actually falls over).

In other words, the present scientific study reveals that triangles are the basis of stability of many past regimes in the country, and the triangular permutation we are going to use to predict the next president has a scientific basis. It is a legitimate area of research and intellectual speculation in which a country facing a political crisis should be interested in.

The maths behind this is calculated using Triangular Theorem plus a healthy dose of maps analysis, but using the same underlying triangular idea. The present triangular formula aims to shut out the political noise of who will win and predict the outcome of every presidential election based on scientific factors.

EVOLUTION OF THE MODEL

Preamble
For the last 50 years, the country had been ruled by 14 Heads of Government as shown in Table 1 below. The political leadership of the First Republic was dominated by the regime of Tafawa Balewa from Bauchi State (1st Oct., 1960- 15th Jan., 1966) and was toppled and replaced by that of Aguiyi-Ironsi from Abia State (15th Jan., 1966-29th July, 1966). General Yakubu Gowon from Plateau State came to the scene and ruled the country from 29th July, 1966-29th July, 1975.

The post civil-war political leadership of the country is the main focus of this theoretical analysis. It was dominated by the regime of General Murtala Ramat Mohammed of Kano State (29th July, 1975-13th Feb., 1976) who snatched power from General Yakubu Gowon in anticlockwise movement. This was followed by the regime of General Olusegun Obasanjo (Abeokuta, Ogun State; Feb. 13th, 1976-Sept. 30, 1979) who came after Murtala and handed power to President Shehu Shagari from Sokoto State who ruled the country from 1st Oct., 1979-31st Dec., 1983.

General Muhammad Buhari (Daura, Katsina State) threw the government of President Shagari (31st Dec., 1983-25th Aug., 1985), while General Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida (IBB of Minna, Niger State) threw the government of General Buhari in 1985 (27th August, 1985-25th Aug., 1993).

IBB stepped aside for Chief Ernest Shonekan from Ogun State (26th Aug., 1993-14th Nov., 1993). Gen. Sani Abacha (Kano State) snatched power from Chief Shonekan and his presidency (15th Nov., 1993-8th June, 1998) is a culmination of a clockwise rotation by which power was taken from late Abacha by Abubakar Abdulsalam of Niger State (9th June, 1998-29th May, 1999), and unconsciously programmed to go back to Abeokuta (Obasanjo’s city) at a later time.

Olusegun Obasanjo (Abeokuta, Ogun State) collected leadership from Abdulsalam and ruled the country from 29th May, 1999-29th May, 2007; while Umaru Yar’Adua ruled from 29th May, 2007-30th Nov., 20009. Yar’Adua and the drama about his health towards the end of his life and his presidency is a culmination of a clockwise rotation by which power was transferred to Goodluck Jonathan (1st Dec., 2009-29th May, 2015), and unconsciously programmed to go back to Daura in Katsina State 29th May 2015- 29th May 2019?

An analysis of Table 1 suggests that in the last 39 years of post-civil war regimes, no matter your devotion or patriotism you never get elected to Nigeria’s highest office, if you are not from one the nine listed states that comprises of: i) Abia; ii) Anambra; iii). Bayelsa; iv) Kano; v) Katsina; vi) Ogun; vii) Niger; viii) Plateau; ix) Sokoto; ix). It was like an unwritten rule.

Somebody should summarize pls
Meanwhile:
#saiBABA
#saiPMB
#SaiAPC
#saiNextLEVEL 4+4

I too know professor. Let me win on saturday. On sunday, una enter strike. Walahi

All I know is Atiku will never be President of Nigeria even for one day.

Lol. I prefer the mathematical approach to these thieves called prophets nd pastors MMM predictions.

So because the past presidents/heads of States were fortunate to have been presidents and from the nine states you mentioned; no other candidate/aspirant from other states can become president in the future?


Very lame mathematical model/analysis!

snowball11:
So because the past presidents/heads of States were fortunate to have been presidents and from the nine states you mentioned; no other candidate/aspirant from other states can become president in the future?


Very lame mathematical model/analysis!

I now probably see why Nigerian Academics are never taken too seriously abroad, the amount of prolixity spewed by the so called prof is nauseating.

EZEIGBO1OFIMO:
I now probably see why Nigerian Academics are never taken too seriously abroad, the amount of prolixity spewed by the so called prof is nauseating.

So annoying. A professor for that matter!

EZEIGBO1OFIMO:
I now probably see why Nigerian Academics are never taken too seriously abroad, the amount of prolixity spewed by the so called prof is nauseating.

The same was done in the U.S.A in the last elections by PROFESSIONAL BODIES, INTELLECTUALS and not just PROFESSORS, permutating, calculating and analysing mathematically and otherwise, how Trump has ZERO CHANCES of winning Hillary.

How seriously should these American Professors be taken with the reality that TRUMP is America's President today?

Let me pretend say i read am

snowball11:
So because the past presidents/heads of States were fortunate to have been presidents and from the nine states you mentioned; no other candidate/aspirant from other states can become president in the future?


Very lame mathematical model/analysis!

Poor comprehension on your part.

mtchew!

EZEIGBO1OFIMO:
I now probably see why Nigerian Academics are never taken too seriously abroad, the amount of prolixity spewed by the so called prof is nauseating.

This might just be mere coincidences, I was looking forward to something more thorough. It sounds like what someone can say from a pub. The Prof did not explain variables that necessitated the emergence of these leaders. If he did that, he would have noticed that socio-economic determinants such as poverty and unemployment are working against the re-election of PMB. Furthermore, "interparty migration" intra-party ranglings are also working against him.

*Clears throat like and adjust glasses* this Prof despite being my colleague did a poor job.

Very proud and happy to read again from my amiable and lovely Prof danbatta, who taught me some 7 years ago in Ahmadu Bello university Zaria. Having said that, it's important to state in all honestly, that this article, thesis, journal, essay, report, hypothesis, prediction model or whatever he chooses to
Call it, is formless, incoherent and lacks logic and structure . it will only make sense in a bar parlor crowded with drunk intellectuals and politicians.

Firstly, the past is indeed the key to the future, but to every law their is an exception! if this is not so, How would you explain the emergence of good luck Jonathan from a minority tribe in bayelsa state, a state that happens to be the least populated in the country. I will argue that sheer twist of eventualities and the social unpredictability of the Nigerian political scenery birthed his emergence and not some Mathematical triangular permutations.

Secondly, it is erronious to conclude that any states in the federation holds any special tendencies or chances to produce future presidents of the country on any index, parameter or basis. Lagos which is arguably the most populated in the country is yet to produce a president even though we are in a democratic dispensation, ironically, bayelsa the least populated has produced one.

Lastly, you claimed that "no matter your devotion or patriotism you never get elected to Nigeria’s highest office, if you are not from one the nine listed states that comprises of: i) Abia; ii) Anambra; iii). Bayelsa; iv) Kano; v) Katsina; vi) Ogun; vii) Niger; viii) Plateau; ix) Sokoto; ix). It was like an unwritten rule."

This is akin to saying since the last two previous elections were postponed, the next two would equally be postponed, it is illogical, while I agree their is an iota of probability, for your postulation (just as there always is for any event no matter how unreasonable) I totally disagree with both the idea and methodology of triangularily permutating election results. Its like trying to predict the end of the world using the circumferential properties of the circle.

DeSepiero:


Poor comprehension on your part.

Mr. Good Comprehension,......it seems you can explain the prof's hypothesis/mathematical triangle better?


The floor is open!

snowball11:




Mr. Good Comprehension,......it seems you can explain the prof's hypothesis/mathematical triangle better?

The floor is open!

I'm not obliged! Work on your comprehension skills. Then open your mind not a floor for argument.

dguyindcorner:
All I know is Atiku will never be President of Nigeria even for one day.

A million Amen

DeSepiero:


I'm not obliged! Work on your comprehension skills. Then open your mind not a floor for argument.

Then, keep your comprehension skill to yourself; while I keep mine!

Cheers!

snowball11:




Then, keep your comprehension skill to yourself; while I keep mine!

Cheers!

Sure! While at it, avoid criticizing and rubbishing concepts beyond your understanding in public.

DeSepiero:


Sure! While at it, avoid criticizing and rubbishing concepts beyond your understanding in public.

You must be limited in comprehension; Mr Good Comprehension!


I guess I'm done responding to your mention!

Good bye!

I'm afraid analysis like this may not work for Nigeria considering our population and literacy level.

Nezy4Real:
A SCIENTIFIC TRIANGULAR PREDICTION MODEL FOR THE 2019 NIGERIA PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

By

Prof. Umar Adamu Danbatta,
Geology Department,
A.B.U. Zaria.

E-mail: uabatta@yahoo.com

ABSTRACT
It has become a popular pastime for political pundits and scholars alike to predict the winner of presidential elections, especially in the U.S.A. and other European countries. Forecasting by economists and political scientists for predicting the results of this quadrennial ritual, has now taken a global insight in predicting who will become the next president in a country. With the February 2019 Nigeria presidential election looming, we use historical perspectives that incorporate our estimators into a dynamic triangular model to determine the probability of which candidate will win the nest presidential election in Nigeria. We took two political variables of the state of origin of the Presidents and their Vice-Presidents as the main indicators, plugs them into a triangular formula that has correctly predicted the outcome in almost all the 5 last presidential elections that were held in the country in 1999, 2003, 2007, 2011, and 2015. The triangular formula aims to quantify the old geologic-political principle that “the past is the key to the present”. The method falls under the realm of scientific correlations of past data in order to predict what will likely happen next. The present model suggests that the outlook for the People Democratic Party (PDP) is negative in this year’s presidential election.

INTRODUCTION
In case you haven't heard, there's an election in the country tomorrow. Although Nigerians have followed with mixed feelings as the drumbeats of the 2019 political season intensifies, the election offers us a rare moment to-sit back and reflect on the pattern of geo-political development of the country. Over the last three decades, economists and political scientists have developed a variety of regression models to forecast presidential elections.

The object of science, philosophy and history include the study of the records of our past events in order to understand their relevance today. As such we need to understand the intricate triangular geo-political arrangement of power rotation from state to state for the benefit of those who are not familiar. Events in life are the determinants and ingredients of historical facts which are sacrosanct and objective. God knows the future but only historians can alter the past and this article is about the use of triangles generated from past recorded power rotation in the country to predict the next president of Nigeria.

There exist only a limited number of states that had produced the 14 Heads of States/Presidents that had ruled the country. These are namely Kano State, Ogun State, Katsina State, Sokoto State, Niger State and now Bayelsa State. These States of origin of former rulers in the country had in the past played a role in who becomes a President in the country and this is probably not going to change, whatever is the public perception.

It is therefore very imperative that we need to intellectually investigate and understand the actions and tools that control the movement and retention of power in these few states, and placed them in their right perspective. The main aim of this presentation is to highlight a triangular scientific method that I had used to predict past Nigeria presidential elections, as well as use the same insight to predict who will become the next president in Nigeria.

The critical observer would perceive and recognize the fact that the States of origin of the Presidents and their Vice-Presidents are the main historical indicators that determine the context of power rotation in the country since independence. When you plug these States into a triangular pattern, the formed a framework that control, highlights and determines the rules of political engagement in the manner of governing this country.

Nigeria has a multi-party system, with two or three strong parties and a third party that is electorally successful. One of the elements of the Nigerian presidential election is that the president is elected by the residents in each state who vote for the candidate they support. The voting at the state level need to be taken into account and this presentation is trying to model an observed variable: the triangular behavior of States that produced previous presidents in the country.

This triangular variable is then used to predict the next president which is a national issue that requires us to correctly forecast which of the major two parties is expected to win the 2019 presidential election. To make simply this discussion, it is safe to ignore lesser contenders, so in this model only Buhari and Atiku are in the race, despite the fact that there are many contestants. The battle is a straight one and whoever satisfied the all the election criteria and gets more votes wins.

THE TRIANGLE THEORY
Many analysts have asked whether any future prediction on the politics of our great country will stand. Indeed, the present use of triangle for prediction as theorized here had solid science behind it, as explained below. Triangulation is the division of a surface or plane polygon into a set of triangles usually with the restriction that each triangle side is entirely shared by two adjacent triangles.

A surface with a finite number of triangles in its triangulation is called compact. If you put three points anywhere in space (not in a straight line) you have exactly one plane that goes through all the three points. This is unique to three points, as adding more points will not give you a plane and reducing the points will give you multiple planes. This is very useful as it means that a three-legged stool will be stable no matter how uneven the ground is (provided the ground is not so uneven that the stool actually falls over).

In other words, the present scientific study reveals that triangles are the basis of stability of many past regimes in the country, and the triangular permutation we are going to use to predict the next president has a scientific basis. It is a legitimate area of research and intellectual speculation in which a country facing a political crisis should be interested in.

The maths behind this is calculated using Triangular Theorem plus a healthy dose of maps analysis, but using the same underlying triangular idea. The present triangular formula aims to shut out the political noise of who will win and predict the outcome of every presidential election based on scientific factors.

EVOLUTION OF THE MODEL

Preamble
For the last 50 years, the country had been ruled by 14 Heads of Government as shown in Table 1 below. The political leadership of the First Republic was dominated by the regime of Tafawa Balewa from Bauchi State (1st Oct., 1960- 15th Jan., 1966) and was toppled and replaced by that of Aguiyi-Ironsi from Abia State (15th Jan., 1966-29th July, 1966). General Yakubu Gowon from Plateau State came to the scene and ruled the country from 29th July, 1966-29th July, 1975.

The post civil-war political leadership of the country is the main focus of this theoretical analysis. It was dominated by the regime of General Murtala Ramat Mohammed of Kano State (29th July, 1975-13th Feb., 1976) who snatched power from General Yakubu Gowon in anticlockwise movement. This was followed by the regime of General Olusegun Obasanjo (Abeokuta, Ogun State; Feb. 13th, 1976-Sept. 30, 1979) who came after Murtala and handed power to President Shehu Shagari from Sokoto State who ruled the country from 1st Oct., 1979-31st Dec., 1983.

General Muhammad Buhari (Daura, Katsina State) threw the government of President Shagari (31st Dec., 1983-25th Aug., 1985), while General Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida (IBB of Minna, Niger State) threw the government of General Buhari in 1985 (27th August, 1985-25th Aug., 1993).

IBB stepped aside for Chief Ernest Shonekan from Ogun State (26th Aug., 1993-14th Nov., 1993). Gen. Sani Abacha (Kano State) snatched power from Chief Shonekan and his presidency (15th Nov., 1993-8th June, 1998) is a culmination of a clockwise rotation by which power was taken from late Abacha by Abubakar Abdulsalam of Niger State (9th June, 1998-29th May, 1999), and unconsciously programmed to go back to Abeokuta (Obasanjo’s city) at a later time.

Olusegun Obasanjo (Abeokuta, Ogun State) collected leadership from Abdulsalam and ruled the country from 29th May, 1999-29th May, 2007; while Umaru Yar’Adua ruled from 29th May, 2007-30th Nov., 20009. Yar’Adua and the drama about his health towards the end of his life and his presidency is a culmination of a clockwise rotation by which power was transferred to Goodluck Jonathan (1st Dec., 2009-29th May, 2015), and unconsciously programmed to go back to Daura in Katsina State 29th May 2015- 29th May 2019?

An analysis of Table 1 suggests that in the last 39 years of post-civil war regimes, no matter your devotion or patriotism you never get elected to Nigeria’s highest office, if you are not from one the nine listed states that comprises of: i) Abia; ii) Anambra; iii). Bayelsa; iv) Kano; v) Katsina; vi) Ogun; vii) Niger; viii) Plateau; ix) Sokoto; ix). It was like an unwritten rule.

op if u"re expecting me to read Dis (a whole book of psalms) u LIE..

Tell this deluded man that Bayelsa only joined his listed states in 2011. Adamawa is about to join in 2019 till it goes round.

.