Investbrooker:

I know Buhari won't get up to 1 million from south east, but I know he will do very well in south south this time around. Much better than he did in 2015

senatordave1:

You are largely correct.but the votes buhari got in ss,se was not really what he got,it was allocated to him.you can check preliminary polling unit results.buhari will get at least 1 million from the ss and 500k from the east.atiku cant get more than 7 million from this region.idiot check buhari's votes in this region since 2007 polls it increases geometrically by over 200%.

Okay Senator, let's work with your figures

Let's assume yours was ideal.... Buhari getting 1 million and 500k, while Atiku gets 6 million from both regions

At least you can agree with me that Buhari has a deficit of 4.5 million to cover. Abi?

It's really difficult to predict who wins this election because sincerely, I don't know Atikus joker.

Buhari gave Jonathan a 3 million gap in 2015 and about 1.7 million came from one state. Do you think the same gap will be repeated this time?

Thanks for being sincere with your figures. It's better than the million million the op wrote

Investbrooker:

Buhari will get 2 million on the south south -- specifically from Edo and delta state. Also, Atiku cannot get up to 4 million in the North bwest

senatordave1:

I don't see buhari getting up to 2 million in ss.buhari should get 1 million from rivers,akwa ibom and delta.the other three states should give him up to 400k.

izzou:


Okay Senator, let's work with your figures

Let's assume yours was ideal.... Buhari getting 1 million and 500k, while Atiku gets 6 million from both regions

At least you can agree with me that Buhari has a deficit of 4.5 million to cover. Abi?

It's really difficult to predict who wins this election because sincerely, I don't know Atikus joker.

Buhari gave Jonathan a 3 million gap in 2015 and about 1.7 million came from one state. Do you think the same gap will be repeated this time?

Thanks for being sincere with your figures. It's better than the million million the op wrote

Zaheertyler:

Lol..because of the campaign crowd lol...

senatordave1:

If you check past results,you will notice that incumbents usually get inflated figures from their zones.buhari own wont be different even if atiku wins him.expect bigger figures this time.
Gej an incumbent could only garner 7 million from his zones,atiku without incumbency and not from here cant garner such figures.its commonsense.again,figures from north west usually equals that of ss,se.atiku's only joker is to massively win ss,se massively and also the north central.it will be easy to predict a winner,whoever wins most states in the north central and south west would have it.

izzou:


I disagree with you, sir

Rather, I believe it's the margin that will decide, not necessarily the number of states

For example, the margin between Buhari and Jonathan
in the South west in 2015 is not up to 700k( I'm overestimating sef)

Can't the south east make up for this and even more?

You are pro APC so it isn't really easy to get you to agree with opinion contrary to yours.... But the truth is Atiku has more up his sleeves than we can know now

I'll still repeat..... We don't know Atikus joker just as we didn't know that of Buhari in 2015

This doesn't translate that I feel Atiku will win. Let's just be open minded and watch

izzou:


I disagree with you, sir

Rather, I believe it's the margin that will decide, not necessarily the number of states

For example, the margin between Buhari and Jonathan
in the South west in 2015 is not up to 700k( I'm overestimating sef)

Can't the south east make up for this and even more?

You are pro APC so it isn't really easy to get you to agree with opinion contrary to yours.... But the truth is Atiku has more up his sleeves than we can know now

I'll still repeat..... We don't know Atikus joker just as we didn't know that of Buhari in 2015

This doesn't translate that I feel Atiku will win. Let's just be open minded and watch

izzou:


I disagree with you, sir

Rather, I believe it's the margin that will decide, not necessarily the number of states

For example, the margin between Buhari and Jonathan
in the South west in 2015 is not up to 700k( I'm overestimating sef)

Can't the south east make up for this and even more?

You are pro APC so it isn't really easy to get you to agree with opinion contrary to yours.... But the truth is Atiku has more up his sleeves than we can know now

I'll still repeat..... We don't know Atikus joker just as we didn't know that of Buhari in 2015

This doesn't translate that I feel Atiku will win. Let's just be open minded and watch

papiforreal:


Fair enough. But do you think the figures GEJ got in 2015 in ss are real?
If they are not inflated then Buhari is in trouble

papiforreal:


Fair enough. But do you think the figures GEJ got in 2015 in ss are real?
If they are not inflated then Buhari is in trouble

helinues:
Total PVC collected by region

NW - 18.2m
SW - 12.8m
SS - 11m
NC - 10.45m
NE - 10.4m
SE - 8.5m

My analysis will be based by region and average voters turned out.

NORTH-WEST

NW is Buhari strongholds, let assume
75% Turned out is 13.65m votes. I am predicting Buhari to have 70% and Atiku 30%

Buhari : 9.5 m votes
Atiku: 4 m votes

SOUTH-WEST

Buhari has and edge over Atiku in SW. Let assume 60% turned out voters is 7.68m voters. I am predicting Buhari to have 57% and Atiku 43%

Verdict

Buhari - 4.3m
Atiku - 3.3 m

SOUTH SOUTH

Atiku has an edge over Buhari in SS.
70% turned out voters is 7.7m voters. Atiku to have 72% and Buhari 28%

Verdicts

Atiku - 5.5 m
Buhari - 2.15m

NORTH CENTRAL

This is a battle ground. 70% turned out voters is 7.3 m voters
I am predicting 50/50

Verdicts

Buhari - 3.65m
Atiku - 3.65m

NORTH EAST

Even though Atiku is from the region, Buhari is the most preferably candidates there. 70% voters turned out is 7.28. Buhari should have 60% while Atiku 40%.

Verdicts

Buhari - 4.3m
Atiku - 2.8m

SOUTH EAST

Even if Obi is not from SE, SE have been stronghold of Pdp most especially for this 2019 presidential elections. 80% turned out voters is 6.8 m voters. Unarguably, Atiku is winning with 75% and Buhari 25%

Verdicts

Atiku - 5.1m
Buhari - 1.7m

Final results

Buhari ; 9.5+4.3+2.1+3.65+4.3+1.7
Atiku; 4+3.3+5.5+3.65+2.8+5.1

Buhari 25.5 million
Atiku 24.5 million

NB: The total number of other aspirants is insignificant.

NobodyKnows:


I hope you won’t scream rigging when you see the votes Buhari will get in the said pdp strongholds .
Just wait and see

Whoever wins is not my problem.

I'm not voting any of them, and Nigeria can never get better if any wins.....

So I'm the least person that should be emotional about two failures already

senatordave1:

My brother,right from 1960 the winner of presidential polls have always won more states than the loser.there have never been a time where a candidate wins less states but leads in margin.winning most states always translates to getting more votes.to be honest am jittery at times.atiku will pull some jokers which i believe will include inflating figures down south,winning the north central,trying to buy votes massively,hacking and sabotaging apc areas etc but since he's not in power,his capacity to do much is limited.plus he's dealing with a ruthless opponent who is always on the offensive.
Though am pro apc,i try to be always realistic and kind to pdp.the south east can make up if they turn out and if the core north dont turn up.

senatordave1:

They were clearly inflated.all buhari needs to do is to stop this inflation from repeating while inflating in his bases.

izzou:


They could be inflated... I really do not trust politicians

But my fear is some of the people who stood behind Buhari in 2015 are no longer there. Let's not play down that fact

I can't be convinced that people like Atiku, Saraki, Kwankwaso didn't help Buhari is 2015....

Like I said, Atiku has a joker... And there's something these guys I mentioned above are seeing, that the voters can't see yet....

Nevertheless, Buhari can still win

izzou:


Its funny how you lots underestimate Atiku's strength in the North, but overestimate Buhari's strength in the South

I'm no supporter of the two old men, but how can Buhari get 1.7 million votes in the South East?

How can Buhari get 2 million plus in the South South?

Very funny thread

izzou:


Its funny how you lots underestimate Atiku's strength in the North, but overestimate Buhari's strength in the South

I'm no supporter of the two old men, but how can Buhari get 1.7 million votes in the South East?

How can Buhari get 2 million plus in the South South?

Very funny thread

papiforreal:

Kano has twice the population of rivers state but in 2015, Rivers get PDP 1.4 million votes while Kano gave 1.7. just a 300,000 difference

papiforreal:


Tambuwal is inconsequential. Only kwankwaso can detail some Buhari votes and that won't even be much. Buhari still has Kano. Only party people would vote PDP in presidential election but the citizens are for APC

izzou:


I didn't type Tambuwal anywhere sir

Cherrybae:


You people make me sigh, Buhari might even get many votes in the SS and SE especially Imo, Abia, Enugu, Anambra, Ebonyi, Rivers, Akwa ibom, Delta, Edo

PDP during the past years uses federal might to grab votes and write results, this time things are not the same

A good politics analyst WI say it will be tough for PDP this time.

No way PDP can right so easily this time in SS and SE

papiforreal:

I wanted to say Atiku. He's no real followers like Buhari. Actually there are no people that honestly like him. Everyone see him as a bad guy. People believe he's not good Muslim

Sirjamo:
Who will give Atiku 4 million votes in North west or 3.3 million in South west. We also love our Osinbajo, the same way you love your Obi

The last time you voted Osibanjo against Jonathan, the difference wasn't up to 700k. That should tell a lot about what your region is bringing to the table

Anyways, I'm not voting my Obi or your Osibanjo

izzou:


So governors are inconsequential in elections Abi?

Maybe Jonathan forgot to use "Federal might" to grab 1 million in Kano...

I know you love Buhari, but please try and be logical in your judgements....Even Amaechi knows he won't get any reasonable number from Rivers

Cherrybae:


The governor's have there own elections to battle, none will kill himself for Atiku, they will reserve there boys for there own elections
If there hitmen are crushed during presidential election who will they use for there own elections.

If you say the governor's are powerful, how come wike used federal might to take all votes in Rivers for Jonathan when Amaechi was the governor

Let me tell you, I'm on ground in Rivers Buhari will get more than 30% in Rivers
Mark my words

izzou:


So governors are inconsequential in elections Abi?

Maybe Jonathan forgot to use "Federal might" to grab 1 million in Kano...

I know you love Buhari, but please try and be logical in your judgements....Even Amaechi knows he won't get any reasonable number from Rivers

izzou:


And if Buhari doesn't, what should I do to you?

izzou:


And if Buhari doesn't, what should I do to you?

Cherrybae:


I will give you free sex for two nights but you will book my flight to hook you up.