OfoIgbo:
If Tinubu intends to run, what it means is that zoning is suspended, afterall the only geopolitical zone that has the greatest claim to this presidency is the south east.

I have nothing against El-Rufai running, afterall Tinubu will also be running for it. Igbos will not cede the Southern slot to Tinubu, so El-Rufai is welcome

Tinubu cannot eat his cake and have it. If Tinubu wants zoning, then it MUST be zoned to the south east, otherwise zoning is suspended

SamNaijaboy:
A Kanuri man may be better placed for equity sake to be President from the North next or a MB man.
That said, 2023 is open to SW, SE, and SS in both APC and PDP. Everybody knows where their strongholds lies in either party.
If the SE is weak in APC, it would be foolish to expect to win the ticket in the APC. Same thing if the SS is weaker in the PDP, the impetus may be with the SE there and the SW may not even have a chance in the PDP.

SamNaijaboy:
Zoning in this context refers to North and South primarily, not regions.
Regions are on the granular next level of detail: now it’s in the North, who hasn’t been president yet?
It cannot be regions primarily because if it was, the NW wouldn’t have had two bites at the presidency whether truncated by death or not.
El-Rufai is from NW and cannot conceivably run for President till 2050 or so in the APC before it comes back around to the NW if the other northern regions decide it’s their turn since they are all adequately represented in the APC his party. He may have to move to PDP to do that when power comes back North in 2031
Actually that may be why the Fulani (whose seat of Power is in the NW) are so desperately trying to remake the country in their image now.
A Kanuri man may be better placed for equity sake to be President from the North next or a MB man.
That said, 2023 is open to SW, SE, and SS in both APC and PDP. Everybody knows where their strongholds lies in either party.
If the SE is weak in APC, it would be foolish to expect to win the ticket in the APC. Same thing if the SS is weaker in the PDP, the impetus may be with the SE there and the SW may not even have a chance in the PDP.

samueloduoye:
Kaduna State Governor, Nasir El-Rufai, gave Nigerians a clear hint about his intention for 2023 presidential race at the weekend. It has been in the realm of speculation before now, and people had thought the zoning clause will stand against him, even if he declares an interest.

To put himself in the perfect position to contest, he made a case for the abandonment of zoning arrangements for political offices as currently obtainable in the country. Normally, it’s expected that, with President Buhari out, a southerner will take his place. But El-Rufai is striving to change this.

Continue reading here: https://qwenu.com/2019/08/14/el-rufai-opens-the-battleground-for-2023-presidency/

OfoIgbo:
If Tinubu intends to run, what it means is that zoning is suspended, afterall the only geopolitical zone that has the greatest claim to this presidency is the south east.

I have nothing against El-Rufai running, afterall Tinubu will also be running for it. Igbos will not cede the Southern slot to Tinubu, so El-Rufai is welcome

Tinubu cannot eat his cake and have it. If Tinubu wants zoning, then it MUST be zoned to the south east, otherwise zoning is suspended

OfoIgbo:
If Tinubu intends to run, what it means is that zoning is suspended, afterall the only geopolitical zone that has the greatest claim to this presidency is the south east.

I have nothing against El-Rufai running, afterall Tinubu will also be running for it. Igbos will not cede the Southern slot to Tinubu, so El-Rufai is welcome

Tinubu cannot eat his cake and have it. If Tinubu wants zoning, then it MUST be zoned to the south east, otherwise zoning is suspended

Bede2u:
zoning is a pdp thing...otherwise buhari would not have run in 2003, 2007, 2011, 2015 and 2019. And as far as pdp zoning is concerned, the south was allowed to run 4 times in 1999, 03, 011 and 015....equity demands the north be allowed the ticket of 2019, 2023 and 2027

So i forsee a tambulwal/umahi ticket in pdp against a tinubu/el rufai muslim/muslim ticket. Apc can win if it rigs north....cos apc will lose ss and se and may lose north in a free election

SamNaijaboy:
I don’t think APC Yoruba will be dumb enough to try Muslim/Muslim ticket as they will realize quickly that that is playing into the hands of the Fulani North.
Their best shot is a Christain SW President who will attract both the SS and SE Christain non-partisan populace as well as the MB.
The PDP North can put Tambuwal/Umahi all they want, the North May vote for him but they will lose heavily in the SS and SW. Added to the MB, and APC North, that will be a losing ticket. And I think you underestimate the Fulani weariness of the South now. Any Fulani candidate will lose heavily in the South going forward.
I strongly doubt Tambuwal can even get the party ticket if he vies for it. The SE and SS are waiting for the ticket.

Putting El-Rufai as VP will cost Tinubu or anyone else so much as he is increasingly disliked in the South. Definitely not worth the trouble.
APC will come to the conclusion themselves that they can’t win without a Christain SW President

SamNaijaboy:
I don’t think APC Yoruba will be dumb enough to try Muslim/Muslim ticket as they will realize quickly that that is playing into the hands of the Fulani North.
Their best shot is a Christain SW President who will attract both the SS and SE Christain non-partisan populace as well as the MB.
The PDP North can put Tambuwal/Umahi all they want, the North May vote for him but they will lose heavily in the SS and SW. Added to the MB, and APC North, that will be a losing ticket. And I think you underestimate the Fulani weariness of the South now. Any Fulani candidate will lose heavily in the South going forward.
I strongly doubt Tambuwal can even get the party ticket if he vies for it. The SE and SS are waiting for the ticket.

Putting El-Rufai as VP will cost Tinubu or anyone else so much as he is increasingly disliked in the South. Definitely not worth the trouble.
APC will come to the conclusion themselves that they can’t win without a Christain SW President

Bede2u:
a lot of fallacies in ur analysis. Atiku just won ss and se convincingly...winning every single state of the 11 states. Why oh why will u think any pdp candidate will not repeat the same feat even better than atiku that most ss and se see as a thief? Lol chai.... just forget about apc winning ss and se in 2023. They can only do well (but not win) if they present someone like osinbajo...the christian factor may have him winninh up to 40% of ss and se...but pdp will still win the region...even if they present a non-entity fulani bigot with the worst track record ever.

As for middle belt...their vote will be split 50-50 in 2023 no matter who apc or pdp field....even if both field someone from middle belt sef...they are not united enough to be a voting block in 2023. The people who would decide the winner will be north east, north west and inec/police/army.

Pdp will win ss/se well....apc will win sw well pdp and apc will split mb 50-50 and then the rest will depend on results from core north

SamNaijaboy:
Exactly why the APC will soon realize to stand a chance, you will have to put an Osinbajo or Fayemi.
Has to be a Christain.
Even if they lose the SE and SS, they will get 40-45%.
With 70% of the SW, they are looking good in the South. Forget split votes from the Yoruba that time. That only happens when a Yoruba is not on the ticket (in 1999 there were both Yorubas) or is unloved for whatever reason(like Tinubu is increasingly is).

CrimeKsmart:


Muslim/Muslim will work for APC and its very simple.

Northerners will vote a Muslim any day any time.
S/W are not religious fanatics so they care less they will vote any Yoruba candidate.

SS/SE are for PDP so weather Christian or Muslim, majority of them will vote for PDP so their votes are inconsequential to APC .

The north and SW will do the winning for APC

SamNaijaboy:
That’s the theory.
That theory works only before the Fulani herdsmen issue.
People are fearful to travel on SW roads now and have to be going by flights when they can. And you think they won’t vote their frustrations or sit at home if there is a Muslim/muslim ticket?
A large number will sit at home. And APC loses the RCCG block vote.

SamNaijaboy:
That’s the theory.
That theory works only before the Fulani herdsmen issue.
People are fearful to travel on SW roads now and have to be going by flights when they can. And you think they won’t vote their frustrations or sit at home if there is a Muslim/muslim ticket?
Yorubas respond and vote their consciences. You will see them vote their view of the herdsmen and how they view the APC did. That view will be worsened if there is a Muslim/muslim ticket and the PDP has a Fulani Muslim as the Presidential candidate as well.
A large number will sit at home. And APC loses the RCCG block vote.

CrimeKsmart:

RCCG block vote?
You dnt mean it!

So you want to sacrifice RCCG block vote for the north.
You need to go back and draw ur political calculation well. Regardless of the religion, as far as it's SW candidate, the SW will give a reasonable amount of votes.

WiLdFLame:
Stop this religious stuff in south west. South west don’t care about Christian or Muslim. Inasmuch it’s our own. Don’t forget 2023 is still far . A lot of political realignment will happen . The Fulani fear is more of the northern in government than religious shit in the south west. Don’t forget politics is mainly about interest not religion. The south south is bound to vote very well for APC based on the interest they now have in APC. Remember again. Politics is mainly about interest not religion

SamNaijaboy:
Are you trying to say that the Muslim North will vote a Tinubu instead of a Tambuwal because he is Muslim?
Or a Fashola instead of a Kwankwaso?
The ones in the North that will vote a Fashola will vote an Osinbajo because they know that the time has come to vote a Southerner for equity reasons. The others that will vote a Muslim will always vote a Northern Muslim ahead of a Southerner Muslim.

Therefore it is important to secure the Christain vote from the South and MB. Also turns out there are significant Christians in Kaduna, and Adamawa. And then add the Northern APC vote.
The SE and SS may vote PDP but you can expect to win the SW and Edo convincingly and the MB.
The battleground will be the North and you will need a really good Northern VP to help in addition to Buhari’s endorsement effect

CrimeKsmart:


Your analysis is not just going well bro. SE/SS are PDP states. SW/NW/MB/NE are APC states.

It is unwise to consider a Christian candidate first because you need massive votes from SE/SS PDP strongholds

Party first before any religion and thats why Atiku a northerner and a Muslim got a reasonable votes in the South than Buhari.

Printerscanner:


Presidency has been unofficially zoned to the South or North through gentleman's agreement. Presidency has never been zone to the North-West, North-Central, South-East, South-South, North-East or South-West. The zoning is North/South, that is two regions and not six regions.

OfoIgbo:
If Tinubu intends to run, what it means is that zoning is suspended, afterall the only geopolitical zone that has the greatest claim to this presidency is the south east.

I have nothing against El-Rufai running, afterall Tinubu will also be running for it. Igbos will not cede the Southern slot to Tinubu, so El-Rufai is welcome

Tinubu cannot eat his cake and have it. If Tinubu wants zoning, then it MUST be zoned to the south east, otherwise zoning is suspended

SamNaijaboy:
What happened in 2015? Northern PDP crossed over to APC. What makes you think that will not happen again, but this time in the opposite direction?
There will be a series of alignment in the North before the election. You see a lot of people are suspecting the North wants to hold on to power and if this is the case, that can only happen in the PDP. So they’ll move.
Whoever cannot hold the whole of the SW for the APC is a losing candidate and a Muslim SW person is unlikely to drive out people even if it’s Fashola unless the VP is a Christain (As the Yoruba churches won’t give their seal of approval on a Muslim Muslim ticket and a lot will sit at home rather than vote)
Unfortunately a Northern Christain VP won’t happen as they need a popular northerner VP to counter PDP’s Northerner If PDP decodes a Northerner is candidate.

CrimeKsmart:

I just have to laugh at your analysis. In your earlier posts, you claim Yoruba will vote any candidate regardless of the religion in as much as the person is from SW. You also claim APC won't get RCCG block vote if the person aint a christian from SW as if na only RCCG dey for the whole SW.lol...

2015, people were just tired of PDP govt and most of the northern politicians saw that the Masses are for Buhari and APC. Thats why most of them decamped. In 2011, why northerners didn't decamp despite having a northern Candidate?

So a typical northern will leave a northern Muslim president and vote for a northern Christian v.p right?

Just think about the aforementioned question well. I have told you earlier that APC gets more vote in the north than the south. Its only SW that gives APC a reasonable vote in the south. Weather Christian or a Muslim, SS/SE will still go for PDP any day any time.

Muslim/Muslim ticket is more feasible than Christian/Muslim ticket in APC