fk001:



I have been following your conversation, but let me tell you the bitter truth.


Christian Northerners are PDP by default if you like fill in a reverend in APC and a shieck in PDP they will vote PDP, same goes to SE and SS.


SE, SS and Christian Northerners doesn't hate Hausa, Fulani or Muslims they only detest Buhari and the party he brought APC. They voted Yar'adua he is a Fulani Muslim and from PDP.

Forget all this herdsmen menace, I promise you whoever PDP filled in come 2023 SE, SS and Christian northerners will give him their 80% votes.

SamNaijaboy:
Zoning in this context refers to North and South primarily, not regions.
Regions are on the granular next level of detail: now it’s in the North, who hasn’t been president yet?
It cannot be regions primarily because if it was, the NW wouldn’t have had two bites at the presidency whether truncated by death or not.
El-Rufai is from NW and cannot conceivably run for President till 2050 or so in the APC before it comes back around to the NW if the other northern regions decide it’s their turn since they are all adequately represented in the APC his party. He may have to move to PDP to do that when power comes back North in 2031
Actually that may be why the Fulani (whose seat of Power is in the NW) are so desperately trying to remake the country in their image now.
A Kanuri man may be better placed for equity sake to be President from the North next or a MB man.
That said, 2023 is open to SW, SE, and SS in both APC and PDP. Everybody knows where their strongholds lies in either party.
If the SE is weak in APC, it would be foolish to expect to win the ticket in the APC. Same thing if the SS is weaker in the PDP, the impetus may be with the SE there and the SW may not even have a chance in the PDP.

SamNaijaboy:
I don’t think APC Yoruba will be dumb enough to try Muslim/Muslim ticket as they will realize quickly that that is playing into the hands of the Fulani North.
Their best shot is a Christain SW President who will attract both the SS and SE Christain non-partisan populace as well as the MB.
The PDP North can put Tambuwal/Umahi all they want, the North May vote for him but they will lose heavily in the SS and SW. Added to the MB, and APC North, that will be a losing ticket. And I think you underestimate the Fulani weariness of the South now. Any Fulani candidate will lose heavily in the South going forward.
I strongly doubt Tambuwal can even get the party ticket if he vies for it. The SE and SS are waiting for the ticket.

Putting El-Rufai as VP will cost Tinubu or anyone else so much as he is increasingly disliked in the South. Definitely not worth the trouble.

APC will come to the conclusion themselves that they can’t win without a Christain SW President.

This is because a Muslim SW Presidential candidate may not be fully supported by the SW who are seeing Tinubu in a funny light after his “where are the cows” comment.
They will value balance after the SW Herdsmen killings where Islamization is also a concern. So therefore, the SW will be split if it’s a Muslim Ticket and since the PDP (assuming Tambuwal somehow gets there) is Fulani AND Moslem, and will not be an alternative for them either, the SW turnout will be the lowest ever, dealing a fatal blow to APC’s hopes.

CrimeKsmart:


Forget the Christian factor, SS/SE will not vote for APC. Even though the number of votes will be different from 2019 election for APC, it will be slight increment.

You are emphasising about a Christian candidate from SW but you are not considering Muslim candidate factor for the north which is the one of the factors the north will also use to vote. Its better APC fill a Muslim/Muslim ticket than a Christian/Muslim ticket because the north is their main target

Kaduna, Kano and Kastina votes are very important to APC.

SamNaijaboy:
Laugh all you want.
The entire southern part of the country knew once Jonathan got there, as acting President and then President, he had to be allowed a fresh 4 year term due to the militancy in the SS. At least the entire south knew.
He lost the North by the way.
Buhari ran against him and the northern votes were split between himself and Atiku the so-called northern consensus candidate. So there were alignments. Just didn’t matter since the votes were split.
With the entire south backing him, he won handily.
Anytime a Southerner is facing a northerner, you need a large swarth of the South with you or else you are done for.

LegendHero:


You are very wise.

The best bet for APC is Fashola/El-Rufai .

They need a Muslim Muslim ticket by fronting Fashola for the SW.

Don’t make a mistake, the SE &SS will never vote a Yoruba candidate coz he’s a Christian. They won’t vote Osinbajo.

SW don’t care about religion and they will vote Fashola overwhelmingly and the rest is left to the NE and NE to vote with El-Rufai as VP.

If Tinubu makes a mistake of vying for the presidency, APC will not get the required massive vote from even the SW.

TSRC:
The PDP is winning the south in 2023 as usual regardless of the candidate .
If they can retain their showing in 2019 and take advantage of buhari absence in the poll to really penetrate in the APC parts of the north, they would win.

Hopefully, it is an Igbo candidate. Anyone of Peter obi or umahi will do.
Peter obi is already known nationally thanks to the 2019 elections.
And umahi is good with the buhari fan base.

Igbosmoker:
APC will be really stupid to field a Muslim-Muslim ticket, I'm from the south south I voted PDP in presidential election and apc in governorship election.

Tinubu or fashola won't smell 30% of south south votes if given the ticket but osibanjo a pastor will get over 40%.

When bigwigs are accusing APC of islamization, you think northern Christians will vote Muslim again? I know all these people buhari won both the Christian and Muslims votes in the north because he was loved, I doubt an average northerner knows who tinubu is.

Tinubu is seen as the more corrupt and uglier plus older version of osibanjo, which youth will vote that kind of person during this social media age? God forbid that someone that recieves buvillion vans of money should be president.

If those people that called atiku a thief should campaign for tinubu, noone will even take them serious

OfoIgbo:
If Tinubu intends to run, what it means is that zoning is suspended, afterall the only geopolitical zone that has the greatest claim to this presidency is the south east.

I have nothing against El-Rufai running, afterall Tinubu will also be running for it. Igbos will not cede the Southern slot to Tinubu, so El-Rufai is welcome

Tinubu cannot eat his cake and have it. If Tinubu wants zoning, then it MUST be zoned to the south east, otherwise zoning is suspended

oyatz:
Do you honestly think Peter Obi or Dave Umahi
can win PDP Presidential ticket let alone defeat Tinubu or Osinbajo or Fashola in the main Election?

Ekpeitit:
South East is not part of Nigeria,South East is Biafra.

oyatz:
What many of you fail to put into these analyses is that it's the party that is contesting an election and the Presidential election won't be in isolation.

There are many powerful people in both parties who will also be contesting on the platform of the parties as Governors, senators, HOR, etc.
They will do everything to make their parties win in their States.

OfoIgbo:
If Tinubu intends to run, what it means is that zoning is suspended, afterall the only geopolitical zone that has the greatest claim to this presidency is the south east.

I have nothing against El-Rufai running, afterall Tinubu will also be running for it. Igbos will not cede the Southern slot to Tinubu, so El-Rufai is welcome

Tinubu cannot eat his cake and have it. If Tinubu wants zoning, then it MUST be zoned to the south east, otherwise zoning is suspended

TSRC:

It is a shame then that biafrans constitute the greater part of your useful human capital in any national endeavour.
Where are the Nigerians?

oyatz:
What is APC Yoruba?

The APC will conduct Presidential primary with delegates from 36 States +FCT to chose one Presidential candidate.

TSRC:

Forget about PDP. It is not Yoruba concern.
Yes Peter obi and umahi have a very high chance of winning the ticket if it is zoned to the south.

Can they win tinubu or fashola? We would have to wait and see.
It would depend on how well they perform in the north which would depend on the northern VP they choose.

But one thing is certain though, Peter obi or umahi will batter tinubu or fashola in the south and take the battle to the north.

You can see how poorly osibanjo fared against peter obi in the south in 2019.
The guy lost his own polling unit in Lagos. And the people that voted against him and his party have not suddenly changed their mind.

oyatz:
What many of you fail to put into these analyses is that it's the party that is contesting an election and the Presidential election won't be in isolation.

There are many powerful people in both parties who will also be contesting on the platform of the parties as Governors, senators, HOR, etc.
They will do everything to make their parties win in their States.

oyatz:
In 2011, Atiku was 'Northern consesus candidate' to challenge Jonathan for the PDP Presidential ticket and Jonathan defeated him.

In the main Election, it was Buhari (CPC) Vs Jonathan (PDP), so there wasn't any splitting of Northern votes.

TSRC:

It is a shame then that biafrans constitute the greater part of your useful human capital in any national endeavour.
Where are the Nigerians?

TSRC:

Forget about PDP. It is not Yoruba concern.
Yes Peter obi and umahi have a very high chance of winning the ticket if it is zoned to the south.

Can they win tinubu or fashola? We would have to wait and see.
It would depend on how well they perform in the north which would depend on the northern VP they choose.

But one thing is certain though, Peter obi or umahi will batter tinubu or fashola in the south and take the battle to the north.

You can see how poorly osibanjo fared against peter obi in the south in 2019.
The guy lost his own polling unit in Lagos. And the people that voted against him and his party have not suddenly changed their mind.

LegendHero:


You really don’t know what you are saying. PDP got that number of vote in the SW because people already lost hope in Buhari and that reflected in the votes. It’s not a matter of Osinbajo or Obi.

Write this down, APC will get nothing less than 85% of the vote cast in the SW if a Yoruba man is on the ballot as presidential candidate (Fashola or Osinbajo).

To be honest, Peter Obi or Umahi will win the votes in the SS and SE with nothing less than 85% also.

If the southerners are the candidate for PDP and APC, then the major fight is in the NE and NW. The NC vote will be shared 50/50.

LazyGold:


Which of the National endeavours and useful human capital do you constitute?


Or you just feel like typing bullshit and beat chest

TSRC:

Forget about PDP. It is not Yoruba concern.
Yes Peter obi and umahi have a very high chance of winning the ticket if it is zoned to the south.

Can they win tinubu or fashola? We would have to wait and see.
It would depend on how well they perform in the north which would depend on the northern VP they choose.

But one thing is certain though, Peter obi or umahi will batter tinubu or fashola in the south and take the battle to the north.

You can see how poorly osibanjo fared against peter obi in the south in 2019.
The guy lost his own polling unit in Lagos. And the people that voted against him and his party have not suddenly changed their mind.

TSRC:

Even if all the Yoruba votes went to osibanjo which is not possible, he would still lose woefully in the south.

The only Yoruba candidate that won the South did it under the PDP and was not a product of greed.

Printerscanner:


Nobody in the history of Nigeria has fought Tinubu the Jagaban and survive it. They are either dead politically or physically. Ask Goaltuck Jonathan, Olusegun Obasanjo, Wahab Dosunmu, Buknor Akerele, ex-convict Bode George, Adeseye Ogunleye, Jimi Agbaje, Ayo Fayose, Ade the Dancer e.g. F9 Parallel, Funsho Williams, imPatience Jonathan, Diezaini Alison-Madueke, e.t.c. El-Rufai will go the same way. If you have contrary opinion, please provide proves, don't just blab and wail.

TSRC:


From your academia to the private sector to your national sports teams, it screams Igbo.