isthatso:

you are all over the place because sense is eluding you. When i first said it you said its because of Ibos in lagos ok, let us take Osun state:


2011 OSUN GEJ 188,409 Buhari 6,997 ACN 299,711 GEJ defeated Buhari by 182K votes

2015 OSUN GEJ 249,929 Buhari 383,603 GEJ lost by 133k

damage to GEJ and gain by Buhari Buhari in Osun total 315K (182K +133K)


Ogun state

2011 OGUN GEJ 309,177 PMB 17,654 ACN 199,555 GEJ defeated Buhari by 292K
2015 OGUN GEJ 207,950 PMB 308,290 GEJ lost by 103k

Damage to GEj and gain By Buhari in OGUN 395K (103+292)

i havent even factored Ondo,Ekiti. Oyo and already if you add lagos SW already accounts for 2m of Buharis 2.4 margin in 2015 compared to 2011.

is this thing becoming clear to you? Keep shouting middle belt there, No middle belt state gave Buhari these kinds of margin changes, the states he won in the North he won already the times he lost. Buhari won by 2.6M in 2015, if the southwest voted the same way as in 2011 he would have lost. Look at his 2011 results he already had big margins in the North but still lost. Katsina, Kano, Gombe Bauchi, Borno, Niger,Kebbi,Kaduna, Buhari won all by huge margins in 2011 but still lost. 2015 was all about the SW swing, you better beleive it!!!!

I take exception to insult. Maybe, sense eluded you too. Get me well. You misunderstood me. Go to the 2011 figure. I wasn't interested in calculating the state by stats votes in the SW and adding them together to know who who got who. My point is that Yorubas' votes were not a major determinant (so to say) in 2011. Check the Benin votes of over 600k and others from the middle belt, compare it to that of other SW states (apart from Lagos who has more non-Yorubas living there) and tell me whether the Middle Belt's didn't determine Jonathan's win in 2011. Also, that of 2015 Lagos votes of over 700k were contributed by both Yorubas, Igbos and other tribes living in Lagos and cannot be used as a yardstick to determine Yorubas' strength. That's what I meant. I have no time for calculation.

Mandeyy:
I take exception to insult. Maybe, sense eluded you too. Get me well. You misunderstood me. Go to the 2011 figure. I wasn't interested in calculating the state by stats votes in the SW and adding them together to know who who got who. My point is that Yorubas' votes were not a major determinant (so to say) in 2011. Check the Benin votes of over 600k and others from the middle belt, compare it to that of other SW states (apart from Lagos who has more non-Yorubas living there) and tell me whether the Middle Belt's didn't determine Jonathan's win in 2011. Also, that of 2015 Lagos votes of over 700k were contributed by both Yorubas, Igbos and other tribes living in Lagos and cannot be used as a yardstick to determine Yorubas' strength. That's what I meant. I have no time for calculation.

My friend you cannot be dealing with figures and be saying you have no time for calculation. Eldction at the end of the day mathematics, addition and subtraction...that's all!! if you are not ready to understand the figures and their meaning you are bound to lose. For instance Kaduna in 2011 has big figures with 3 million voters, but at the end of the day it was no more important than and in fact nullified by osun with less than 200K voters. Buhari got 1.3m votes in Kaduna but GEJ got 1.19M, the net effect is 140K votes for Buhari. meanwhile osun gave GEJ 188K and Buhari 6k..net effect + 182 K in favour of GEJ, so for all the millions in Kaduna that Year, small Osun state put GEJ ahead because it wiped out Buhari's victory in Kaduna with 40k to spare!

isthatso:


see your life, now you are humbling yourself.


there are 2 types of voters. Peoiple who have never voted and people who change votes (people who swing from one side to another), the swing voter is more important because he does double damage.

i gave an example but i guess you were to busy to see the point of what I was saying.

if there are 6 voters and only 5 vote and your opponent is leading you by 3:2 you are better off convincing 1 voter from your opponent than trying to convince the guy who normally does not vote. because if you take one swing vote from your opponent, he now has 2 and you have 3, i.e the net effect is double, wheras if you convinved the 6th guy who doesnt vote to vote, the best you will do is to tie at 3:3.

This is the reason why 600k SW swing voters in Lagos turned GEJ's majority of 1.1m in lagos to a deficit of 1.2m in 2015. because the effect is doubled! You are adding to your total and subtracting from your opponent's.

I hope you can now see why I said it was a bad move to give peter Obi the VP slot. He doest attract swing voters, which is what Atiku needed.

Who is humbling? I noticed a discrepancy in the number of votes cast and 1.23 million votes' swing you calculated, and I decided to ask a question and you turned it to
a "humbling" thing. Well, I've seen your calculation. We're all entitled to our opinion. I saw Jonathan's margin in 2011 against Buhari. So, I disagree with you on this. Buhari surpassed him with 160k votes only, in 2015 while Jonathan beat him with a difference of over 1.1 million in 2011. So, the 1.23 million swing of a thing made no sense to me. My interest lies in the fact that Lagos is cosmopolitan comprising so many non-Yorubas and its votes cannot be used as a yardstick to test Yorubas' voting strength.

Mandeyy:
Who is humbling? I noticed a discrepancy in the number of votes cast and 1.23 million votes' swing you calculated, and I decided to ask a question and you turned it to
a "humbling" thing. Well, I've seen your calculation. We're all entitled to our opinion. I saw Jonathan's margin in 2011 against Buhari. So, I disagree with you on this. Buhari surpassed him with 160k votes only, in 2015 while Jonathan beat him with a difference of over 1.1 million in 2011. So, the 1.23 million swing of a thing made no sense to me. My interest lies in the fact that Lagos is cosmopolitan comprising so many non-Yorubas and its votes cannot be used as a yardstick to test Yorubas' voting strength.

what do you have to say about ogun and osun? The fact that you dont even know what a swing vote is says everything!

isthatso:


what do you have to say about ogun and osun? The fact that you dont even know what a swing vote is says everything!

Guy, I'm dealing with the figures I saw. Swing votes was not our original discussion. We were discussing regional voting strength before you veered off to calculation and swing votes.

Mandeyy:
Guy, I'm dealing with the figures I saw. Swing votes was not our original discussion. We were discussing regional voting strength before you veered off to calculation and swing votes.

I hate to say it but I am clearly dealing with someone who hasnt got a grasp of basic concepts. Elections are about numbers, inec doesnt care if you are Ibo hausa or yoruba, INEC counts numbers and whoever has the highest number wins. If you do not understand how the election arithmetic works, then there is nothing I can do for you. By your own admission you dont want to deal with figures. how can a man talk about elections and counting numbers when he doesnt know the relationship between the numbers. it s like a surgeon saying he doesnt like blood.


Final word: Elections are a race, in a race your speed does not matter, what matters is your speed relative to your opponent. If you are doing 150kph and your opponent is doing 200kph you will lose but if your opponent is doing 50kph then all you need to win is to go at 60kph.

Elections are not about absolute numbers but relative numbers. it's not about how many votes you get, it's about how many votes you get relative to your opponent You can get 2m votes but if you opponent gets 1,999,999m all you have to show is 1 vote and if he has 100k votes from somewhere else you have lost!!

You are getting too bogged down in the sentiment to see clearly and there are basic concepts you clearly do not understand that will affect you judgement. Knowledge is power.........seek it!!!!

isthatso:


My friend you cannot be dealing with figures and be saying you have no time for calculation. Eldction at the end of the day mathematics, addition and subtraction...that's all!! if you are not ready to understand the figures and their meaning you are bound to lose. For instance Kaduna in 2011 has big figures with 3 million voters, but at the end of the day it was no more important than and in fact nullified by osun with less than 200K voters. Buhari got 1.3m votes in Kaduna but GEJ got 1.19M, the net effect is 140K votes for Buhari. meanwhile osun gave GEJ 188K and Buhari 6k..net effect + 182 K in favour of GEJ, so for all the millions in Kaduna that Year, small Osun state put GEJ ahead because it wiped out Buhari's victory in Kaduna with 40k to spare!

Your calculation is diversionary. In that case, you contradicted yourself too because you said that Middle Belt's votes are usually small and irrelevant. Besides, I don't believe Osun's or SW's votes made much difference. The difference came from the Middle Belt, Niger Delta and Igbo. So, that has been my argument.

Mandeyy:
Your calculation is diversionary. In that case, you contradicted yourself too because you said that Middle Belt's votes are usually small and irrelevant. Besides, I don't believe Osun's or SW's votes made much difference. The difference came from the Middle Belt, Niger Delta and Igbo. So, that has been my argument.

Oh lord!!! You are digging, the more you post the more i wonder!

what i said is that the margins of victory in the Middle belt are never here nor there, 50k, 70k, they dont do damage. you never get 400k swings in the middle belt like you do in the SW. 1 sw swing state can take care of the entire middle belt. but somehow I get the feeling you still dont understand what i am saying. So i shall just end this here.


Good night

Mandeyy:
Guy, I'm dealing with the figures I saw. Swing votes was not our original discussion. We were discussing regional voting strength before you veered off to calculation and swing votes.

i gave you lagos, you said ibo dey lagos, i gave you osun and ogun, you are saying it's not the discussion. Abeg I don tire!!!

isthatso:


I hate to say it but I am clearly dealing with someone who hasnt got a grasp of basic concepts. Elections are about numbers, inec doesnt care if you are Ibo hausa or yoruba, INEC counts numbers and whoever has the highest number wins. If you do not understand how the election arithmetic works, then there is nothing I can do for you. By your own admission you dont want to deal with figures. how can a man talk about elections and counting numbers when he doesnt know the relationship between the numbers. it s like a surgeon saying he doesnt like blood.


Final word: Elections are a race, in a race your speed does not matter, what matters is your speed relative to your opponent. If you are doing 150kph and your opponent is doing 200kph you will lose but if your opponent is doing 50kph then all you need to win is to go at 60kph.

Elections are not about absolute numbers but relative numbers. it's not about how many votes you get, it's about how many votes you get relative to your opponent You can get 2m votes but if you opponent gets 1,999,999m all you have to show is 1 vote and if he has 100k votes from somewhere else you have lost!!

You are getting too bogged down in the sentiment to see clearly and there are basic concepts you clearly do not understand that will affect you judgement. Knowledge is power.........seek it!!!!

Guy, you're funny. It's numbers I got from the votes that I meant, not the swing votes. INEC doesn't calculate swing votes, they deal with real votes cast. The argument is long overdue. You're entitled to your opinion; I'm entitled to mine. That's all!

Mandeyy:
Guy, you're funny. It's numbers I got from the votes that I meant, not the swing votes. INEC doesn't calculate swing votes, they deal with real votes cast. The argument is long overdue. You're entitled to your opinion; I'm entitled to mine. That's all!

My brother your journey is long, You dont understand numbers, that is clear. If you dont understand something , you will always be talking out of ignorance and making a fool of yourself. Inec counts actual votes, Inec does not know or care if a vote is swing or not, hausa or ibo, yoruba, Muslim or christian, male or female! Swing votes/swing voters is a concept for political parties and strategists. Understanding swing votes and their importance is the job of political parties and their strategists.

Has it not occurred to you all this while to google "swing votes"?

https://www.thefreedictionary.com/swing+voter

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swing_(politics) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swing_(politics)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swing_vote

Final goodnight, I have tried, try and help yourself!!!

isthatso:


i abused you, i didnt abuse your race. this is what people do when they have reached the limits of their intelligence.

I gave you a simple assignment, i know you are slow so you have till 2023 to work it out

1. In Lagos, Jonathan had majority of 1.1m in 2011, in 2015 he had deficit of 130k, how did he lose 1.23m votes in lagos if only 700k yorubas voted for him and his Ibo brothers maintained their 600k votes?

2. Atiku gave peter Obi VP slot, yet the net contribution of Anambra went down from 640K in 2015 to 490K in 2019 and yet Buhari did not win any significant votes in Anambra. was that a good strategic decision? Would he have been better served giving the VP slot to another zone, like Buhari did in 2015 especially considering question 1 above?

2) Is it wise to pay for something that already belongs to you?

3. Which is more important, a) winning 5 states by an average of 70k each or b) 1 state where you convert 300k voters from your opponent, which gives you a bigger margin and by how much?

4. what does converting 1 vote from your opponent do to your margin?

5. You have N5000 to spend on a voter, assuming once you spend the money it is guaranteed the voter will vote for you, should you spend it on some one who will never vote for your opponent or someone who will otherwise vote for him?

6. When are you going to start thinking with your brain not your emotions and tribal sentiments?


Like i said I know God has not blessed you with much of brain so take your time to work these out, you have plenty of time as SE is not producing a president anytime soon.

It's one is one. You abused me first. That shows you've reached the highest level of intelligence. I saw it now and I didn't like it. Besides, you can't be 100 percent sure that Igbos would have voted massively for Atiku without Peter Obi as the VP candidate. You tend to foreclose your judgment. Electioneering is dynamic. At times, permutations fail. Besides, Anambra gave Atiku more votes than the figures reeled out. We were witnesses to how the governor worked against the PDP and harassed voters just because he's not on good terms with Peter Obi. You first accused me of insulting your tribe, but you insulted me first. You don't really even know me and you typed that nonsense you did on the last paragraph just because of argument. He who comes to equity must come with clean hands. Bye.

isthatso:


My brother your journey is long, You dont understand numbers, that is clear. If you dont understand something , you will always be talking out of ignorance and making a fool of yourself. Inec counts actual votes, Inec does not know or care if a vote is swing or not, hausa or ibo, yoruba, Muslim or christian, male or female! Swing votes/swing voters is a concept for political parties and strategists. Understanding swing votes and their importance is the job of political parties and their strategists.

Has it not occurred to you all this while to google "swing votes"?

https://www.thefreedictionary.com/swing+voter

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swing_(politics) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swing_(politics)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swing_vote

Final goodnight, I have tried, try and help yourself!!!

You see yourself. I said that I believe in actual figures cast which INEC believes in, not swing votes of yours. That's what I meant. You just like rushing into conclusion. Nawa ooo.

isthatso:


i gave you lagos, you said ibo dey lagos, i gave you osun and ogun, you are saying it's not the discussion. Abeg I don tire!!!

I pray that another person will see our argument. You don't understand somebody before jumping into conclusion. I told you earlier that I was not interested in swing votes, that I'm much interested in actual votes cast which INEC counted, but you misunderstood me. This argument is long overdue. Just learn how to cultivate manners in discussion because this is an online form. People disagree to agree. But all I know is that every region is politically important. No region determines anything without alliance with others. That has been my submission all along.

Wentin Yoruba get abeg especially in terms of development in Nigeria?

hollah123:
We know your intention is to burn n scatter everywhere so nobody is testing u with power bro. Na wailing till thy kingdom come b ur case

remember these words.
"our opportunity will come "
Nature has a way of doing her thing.
even evil do have its ordained time.

Mrfeel:


We all know you Southwest are the ones living in potopo red mud houses with rusted roofs all over your states those houses are still in Yoruba land till date, we Igbos are not servants we are self independent business minded , we are global citizens spread across planet earth there's is no country in the world you won't find us, we have been in Lagos Long long time during colonial rain, doing business

.....blah, blah blah,...you global thieves and criminals?...we know already. As to the brown roof when the great war of Nigeria coming soon is over it doesn't take years to transform, wait and see, from your alapotopoto.

nogragra:

.....blah, blah blah,...you global thieves and criminals?...we know already. As to the brown roof when the great war of Nigeria coming soon is over it doesn't take years to transform, wait and see, from your alapotopoto.

I don't know what you mean by that, but we have fought civil war, everything was destroyed in our region we bounced back and we are rich competing shoulder to shoulder with you afonja's, visit our villages and see fenced mansions all over our villages with electricity, unlike the mud brown roof houses you afonja's live in, no matter what happens we are the bravest and smartest tribe in this country and we can survive anything even if a second civil war happens it won't take time for us to get back on our feets

IntrovertedK:
simple as abc. Apc will present yoruba. Their die hard/do or die for party should present one ibo jew buh thay are scared. They will rather sell it to their northern master because they know they've got nothing on yoruba.

just like you lots did in 2015! Nothing concerns you with the politics the East will play in 2023 even if we like we vote Buhari or Usman Dan fodio e no concern you!

isthatso:

The SE is irrelevant politically. their votes are of no consequence because their votes do not determine the outcomes of national elctions. The only way to win an election is to split the northen vote and split the yoruba vote, that was Atiku's mistake. He chose a SE VP to win over the Se who were always going to vote for him anyway. If he had chosen a SW Vp he would have gotten more votes.

The SE votes are politically irrelevant because they will always vote for PDP, whether or not there is a SE person on the ticket and secondly they are the smallest voting block in terms of numbers.

lol politics in Nigeria did not start in 2015 stop deceiving yourself oo the same odds that was stacked up against the East in 2015 is what you lots will be facing in 2023 stop deceiving yourself. Once Apc brings out a Westerner automatically Pdp will field a Northerner. And if you think the North is as dumb as you lots that supported a Northerner over a Southerner in 2015 think again ! North will always vote North you know!

IntrovertedK:
lie lie. Fear of yorubas defeating you at the poll is the reason you will keep selling your birthright to your northern masters.

lol is it your fear? free igbos 2023 they will do exactly what you did in 2015 . Una start am

isthatso:


you are talking a lot of nonsense


1. Election is a numbers game. If you dont have the numbers you cant influence an election.

2. PVC has meant manufactured numbers have gone down, which is why manufactured votes from SS and SE have been going down in the last 2 elections.

3. The SE wasnt VP but it was a lesson to the north. The north have tradionally less trust for the SE than the SS. Dont forget the Igbo coup killed all theor traditional politicl leaders in balewa and Sardauna...they havent forgotten and will not forget.

4. Division in this country only happenned when the SE were removed from the corridors of power for the 1st time in the history of the country. Under every disposition The SE elite have always been beneficiaries even if they wernt in Power. They fuelled the division when they put all their eggs in PDP and lost.

3. There is not block vote which is why the SE vote is irrelevant and the SW is the real battle ground and has been since 2015, it's the only region where the voyers change their votes.

4. I dont care who becomes president, all I am saying is SE will not produce the president 100%

5. I have already said that things will be different in 2023 because the Buhari influence in the North will be diminished.

6. The North will NEVER sanction a SE president

6. i have no hopes, i am just giving you an unbiased analysis.

you are saying the Truth but you are bending it by putting "South East" NO SOUTHERNER WILL WIN IN 2023 MARK IT! THE BUHARI EFFECT WILL GO! THE EAST IS WILL RATHER VOTE BUHARI FOR THIRD TERM THAN VOTE A WESTERNER . PDP CANDIDATE WILL BE A NORTHERNER WITH AN EASTERNER VICE .if Apc fields a Westerner which is the obvious they will LOOSE! The North will always vote a Northerner over a Southerner no matter what you know it unless Apc fields a Northerner then the will most likely win ,but if the put A Westerner there banking on Northern votes the are in for a shocker! And for the records the East don't give a Bleep if Pdp fields a Northerner they will just vote him! I don't need to tell you where the Northern votes will go 2023 will be reverse of 2015

isthatso:


you are talking a lot of nonsense


1. Election is a numbers game. If you dont have the numbers you cant influence an election.

2. PVC has meant manufactured numbers have gone down, which is why manufactured votes from SS and SE have been going down in the last 2 elections.

3. The SE wasnt VP but it was a lesson to the north. The north have tradionally less trust for the SE than the SS. Dont forget the Igbo coup killed all theor traditional politicl leaders in balewa and Sardauna...they havent forgotten and will not forget.

4. Division in this country only happenned when the SE were removed from the corridors of power for the 1st time in the history of the country. Under every disposition The SE elite have always been beneficiaries even if they wernt in Power. They fuelled the division when they put all their eggs in PDP and lost.

3. There is not block vote which is why the SE vote is irrelevant and the SW is the real battle ground and has been since 2015, it's the only region where the voyers change their votes.

4. I dont care who becomes president, all I am saying is SE will not produce the president 100%

5. I have already said that things will be different in 2023 because the Buhari influence in the North will be diminished.

6. The North will NEVER sanction a SE president

6. i have no hopes, i am just giving you an unbiased analysis.

you are saying the Truth but you are bending it by putting "South East" NO SOUTHERNER WILL WIN IN 2023 MARK IT! THE BUHARI EFFECT WILL GO! THE EAST IS WILL RATHER VOTE BUHARI FOR THIRD TERM THAN VOTE A WESTERNER . PDP CANDIDATE WILL BE A NORTHERNER WITH AN EASTERNER VICE .if Apc fields a Westerner which is the obvious they will LOOSE! The North will always vote a Northerner over a Southerner no matter what you know it unless Apc fields a Northerner then the will most likely win ,but if the put A Westerner there banking on Northern votes the are in for a shocker! And for the records the East don't give a Bleep if Pdp fields a Northerner they will just vote him! I don't need to tell you where the Northern votes will go 2023 will be reverse of 2015 ..

IntrovertedK:
at least you've made it clear that you people are inconsequential and at the same time a coward who can only hide behind your northern masters to make your opinion known instead of coming out to face your perceived worst enemy and brawl it out. What we did in 2015 is known as 'strategizing for the future'. Even a dead rat would have won that m.o.ronic President Jonathan. The useless thing was a disgrace to intellects worldwide that the power all over the world was against hime. He was such a scum of a leader.

is it your "cowardice"? leave it for us make we coward dey go .2023 is 2015 in reverse the North knows it that is why the are urging you to contest

Chukapage:
lol politics in Nigeria did not start in 2015 stop deceiving yourself oo the same odds that was stacked up against the East in 2015 is what you lots will be facing in 2023 stop deceiving yourself. Once Apc brings out a Westerner automatically Pdp will field a Northerner. And if you think the North is as dumb as you lots that supported a Northerner over a Southerner in 2015 think again ! North will always vote North you know!

I dont think you understand, Nowhere have I said a SW will become president, Nowhere have I said I want a SW president or care if one becomes president, please read again. What I have said is that SE will NEVER produce a president of Nigeria. Because I talk about the SE does not mean I am pro SW. I am simply making my observations that the SE have become unelectable as president of this country.

seunmsg:


We supported Jonathan in 2011 because of the need to carry the minorities along and based on the agreement that he would serve for a single term. In 2015, Jonathan refused to honor the single term arrangement after serving for close to 6 years. We had no choice than to support the return of power to the north in respect of the rotational arrangement.

In 2023 southerners in APC will ensure the party’s ticket is zoned to the south. It is now left for those of you in PDP to do same. We also have lots of northerners who are in support of respecting the rotational arrangement. The north has not said they want to retain power. The only region trying to force the retention of power in the north out of spite is the south east and they shall be disgraced as usual.

lol na so like I said 2023 will be reverse of 2015 if you think that a Northerner will vote a Southerner over a Northerner think again! Look at what atiku did to Buhari , he gave him some tough time not to talk of 2023 when the "Buhari effect" is gone ,Una go shock again if you think Northerners will vote a Southerner over a Northerner think again! You South westerners who are planning on 2023 banking on Northern votes should better start now and restrategize because if your banking on Northern votes una go shock El rufai and other Northerner s don dey tell una the truth with style una no go hear better go and plan well now there is time oo

isthatso:


I dont think you understand, Nowhere have I said a SW will become president, Nowhere have I said I want a SW president or care if one becomes president, please read again. What I have said is that SE will NEVER produce a president of Nigeria. Because I talk about the SE does not mean I am pro SW. I am simply making my observations that the SE have become unelectable as president of this country.

lol oga chill you are not God you hear? Who believed a mere ex Deputy Governor like Good luck Jonathan will be president? You are not God! Bro drink water ! The one I am sure is 2023 the West will understand politics that's the game unless Apc fields a Northerner. Again my guy you are not God .

sogodihno:


It is only a fool that still take 5% people serious, useless 5%, as if they matter

lol e pain am ! And for the records it's now 3% ooo make you know 2023 is 2015 in reverse let South West come and collect president na

KidsNEXTdoor:


Sure... Northerners will vote Tinubu ... And Leave their son
South southerners will vote for him helping to truncate their second term bid
South westerners will vote for him for caging and holding the region ransom
South easterners will vote for him out of love and sabotaging the South

Tinubu will win overwhelmingly

lol the sarcasm thougu Dem go shock!

Chukapage:
lol oga chill you are not God you hear? Who believed a mere ex Deputy Governor like Good luck Jonathan will be president? You are not God! Bro drink water ! The one I am sure is 2023 the West will understand politics that's the game unless Apc fields a Northerner. Again my guy you are not God .

SS is a neutral region, they can and will produce another president be fore the SE, if Nigeria still remains one country. The North also saw what happened with Jonathan. I am not God, I am just good at interpreting things without sentiment.
The SE have no support for the presidency outside the SE and they dont have the numbers. I would go as far as to say there is no region in Nigeria that the rest of the country is so opposed to seeing in the presidency like the SE. The SE don't know how to play politics. Even the SW that were tradionallly the worst group have learnt. They dont know how to lose gracefully without heating up the polity and stinking up the place which has not endeared them and done more damage than good to their cause, dont forget the SE also have legacy issues from the civil war and now they have antagonized the SW.

isthatso:


You have a choice to take on board what i have said or you can choose to be sentimental. I said it before the 2015 election that PDP will gain nothing by giving peter Obi the ticket but ibos lambasted me and i say it again.... In the current political equation, the Ibo vote is irrelevant. By that i mean an irrelevant vote is a vote that is fixed, a vote that doesnt change. No matter what APC does Ibos will not vote for APC, no matter what PDP does Ibos will vote for PDP, so the Ibo vote does not change the political election math, therefore it is an irrelevant block vote. There is no need to incentivize the Ibos because they will not change their voting pattern. That is the meaning of irrelevance. The Northern vote can be split and the yoruba vote can be split, so they are relevant and need to be incentivized. You dont pay for something that is already yours and you dont waste your money and energy trying to get something that you can never have, that is the irrelevance of the Ibo vote!!!

Anytime the Ibos have been on the winning side, the North has either been one and voted as a block (1999) or the SW also voted with the Ibos, 2003/2007,2011. Once the North is divided and it will be divided in 2023, a divided North cannot win an election partnering with Ibos without yoruba support. 2003, 2007, 2011 had a divided North but had southwest support thats why the Ibo supported party won, once the SW took away it's support in 2015 and 2019, it was impossible for the Ibo supported party to win. the most attractive bride in Nigerian politics now is SW. Like it or not, SW vote is the game changer because the North is divided and will be divided in 2023 because APC is either going to feild a Northern candidate or a SW candidate with Northern support in 2023, whatever the case they will have strong northern support even though they will lose the Buhari factor. You can take on board tor you can be sentimental. Dont say i did not tell you.

you are still living in pre-2011 politics, things have changed my brother, the Ibo vote is an irrelevant vote because it doesnt change anything. PDP wont win because they have it and APC wont lose because they dont have it. The battle ground in 2023 will be North and SW. they are the ones whose votes can change. Even SS is more important than the SE vote.

lol dream on see as he is tactically trying to patronize SS lol una go shock ! North divided? Lol again if you think Northerners will be stupid like you lots that Supported A NORTHERNER over a Southerner think again! Shey El rufai don tell una lmao North divided ko dividend ni one Northern candidate go shock una ! Your people should better plan 2023 now because once the Buhari effect is gone The North will massively vote a Northerner candidate and YOU KNOW IT! Even atiku with Peter Obi as vice really gave Buhari a tough time even in the North sef . Keep consoling yourselves one moment the whole Eastern Region that supported Jonathan are 5% the next moment "only south south vote is relevant" dey deceive yourself ooo

Chukapage:
lol dream on see as he is tactically trying to patronize SS lol una go shock ! North divided? Lol again if you think Northerners will be stupid like you lots that Supported A NORTHERNER over a Southerner think again! Shey El rufai don tell una lmao North divided ko dividend ni one Northern candidate go shock una ! Your people should better plan 2023 now because once the Buhari effect is gone The North will massively vote a Northerner candidate and YOU KNOW IT! Even atiku with Peter Obi as vice really gave Buhari a tough time even in the North sef . Keep consoling yourselves one moment the whole Eastern Region that supported Jonathan are 5% the next moment "only south south vote is relevant" dey deceive yourself ooo

your problem you are speaking out of sentiment. it is the problem with a lot of your brothers. Either sentiment or failure of understanding. An irrelevant vote can be

1) a vote that is insignificant

or

2) a vote that will not change


In the case of the SE, the Se is irrelevant because Se will never vote for APC, they will always vote for PDP, so they are irrelevant to BOTH APC and PDP, you dont waste your resources on someone who will never change his mind, you dont waste your resources on someone who will never vote for your opponent and you dont waste your resources on someone who will never vote for you ...THAT in political definition of IRRELEVANT! and the mistake Atiku made in 2019. He had nothing to gain by courting the SE because they are always going to vote PDP. He wasted his VP slot on the SE. He even got less votes from Anambra in 2019 than PDp got in 2015.

The North and SW are the 2 most relevant zones in the Nigerian political equation because they are the only ones who change their votes.