The two polls, though far away from the 2023 polls, are seen by the two main political parties in the country as a litmus test for the next general elections, and they have thus activated all weapons in their political armories to achieve victory. In Bayelsa, though 45 political parties are fileding candidates for the election, the contest seems to be practically between the PDP and APC.

While the candidate of the PDP, Senator Douye Diri, is believed to have adequate experience to govern the state, having served as the commissioner, House of Representatives member and presently a senator, his main challenger, the APC candidate, David Lyon, is banking on his philanthropic gestures over the years which have endeared him to the people. Lyon, the oil surveillance contractor for multinational companies working in the state, has used the contract to empower many people in the state through provision of jobs and empowerment of youths, women and other people, attracting enormous support and admiration across the state.

When the idea of Lyon contesting for the governorship seat first emerged in August, there was excitement among the people, most of who believe that making him the governor would help reduce their many years of suffering. On the other hand, Senator Diri, the candidate of the PDP who has enjoyed the full support of incumbent Governor Seriake Dickson, having emerged from his ‘Restoration Caucus Family’, is facing some daunting challenges of scaling through during the election. Aside the complaints of Bayelsans that the eight years of Dickson’s administration have brought suffering to the people, they also complain about non-payment of salaries to civil servants, retirees’ benefits, decay in infrastructure and epileptic power supply, thus, the people believe that voting Diri would be a continuation of Dickson and by extension, an addition to their problems. Going by ongoing campaigns of the two major parties, the chances will be equal for both, while the other parties just seem to be in the contest. While Diri enjoys about 80% support from Sagbama, Kolokuma/Opokuma, the APC candidate is very popular in Southern Ijaw, Nembe and Brass. Both candidates may share votes from Yenagoa, Ekeremor and Yenagoa local governments, while the ongoing strife between Dickson and Jonathan’s kinsmen may give Lyon 60 to 70% of the votes in Ogbia LGA. Last week, the mother of former President Jonathan, Eunice Ayi Jonathan, received the APC candidate in her Otuoke home where she prayed for his success.

This caused some confusion for the PDP. APC, PDP on the scale in eight LGs Brass: Before now, Brass was not a favourable ground for the PDP, right from 2012 when the Jonathan-led federal government stopped a son of the area, Chief Timipre Sylva, from continuing his second tenure as governor of the state. In 2014, when other parties merged to form the APC, Sylva led his people to the new party and worked for its success during the presidential election and also delivered one seat in the state assembly for the party in the area. By 2019, the APC had penetrated Brass where they produced a House of Representatives member and two state assembly seats.

With the brilliant outing in 2019, it is believed that the APC will poll 80% of Brass votes. Ekeremor: In Ekeremor LGA, the contest is still open for both major parties with seeming equal chances. A former deputy governor of the state, Hon. Peremobowei Ebebi, who crossed over to APC and a former Minister of State for Agriculture, Senator Heineken Lokpobiri, are from the area and they will certainly work to deliver the APC in the poll. Kolokuma/Kolokuma:

In Senator Diri’s local government, the PDP is sure of 80% of the votes, despite the fact that the area has the least voting strength in the state, but they will most likely vote for their son to become the next governor, having not produced a governor since the creation of the state.

The recent removal of their son, Tonye Emmanuel Isenah, as speaker of the House of Assembly is a minus for the PDP in the area. Nembe: Traditionally the stronghold of the APC during the last presidential, national and state assembly elections, Nembe delivered almost all the APC candidates including Senator Degi, the deputy governorship candidate of the party.

The local government which is one of the areas with high number of voters will put their votes in bulk for David Lyon and the APC. Obviously, based on the observation, it will be difficult for the PDP to garner 20% of votes from there. Ogbia: Before now, the local government was a stronghold of the PDP, the party that produced all political office holders in the area.

But the narrative changed during the last National Assembly election where the people rejected a senatorial candidate allegedly foisted on them by Governor Dickson and opted for the APC candidate, a situation that made PDP to lose Bayelsa East Senatorial seat to the APC. A repeat of the same scenario is imminent.

Ogbia people are already sympathetic to the APC because of how Dickson overrided Jonathan to bring in Douye Diri as the governorship candidate. Most of the political actors in the area have already decamped from the PDP to the APC while others are still in the PDP working for the APC. Lyon is sure of at least 60% of votes in the area. Sagbama: This is Governor Dickson’s home local government.

The deputy governorship candidate of the PDP, Senator Lawrence Ewhrudjakpo, is also from the area. Here, the PDP may not have any opposition, and is sure of at least 90% of votes. For now, Sagbama is the stronghold of the PDP.

Southern Ijaw: David Lyon’s home local government, where the APC is very popular. During the National Assembly election earlier in the year, the party’s candidate, Preye Oseke, defeated the then Speaker of the state House of Assembly, Mr. Konbowei Benson, for the House of Representatives seat.

The APC at the moment has taken over all the villages of Southern Ijaw, and it is sure of at least 90% of the votes there. The area has the second highest voting strength. Yenagoa: The state capital, it has the highest concentration of people and highest voting strength, but the two dominant parties have equal chances here.

No candidate from Yenagoa is contesting the election and the local government area does not have much stake and interest in the election. INEC’s preparation in Bayelsa INEC has been working round the clock to ensure a hitch-free election in the state. It has been engaging stakeholders and other interest groups to ensure a credible and peaceful election,

Daily Trust on Sunday’s findings revealed. During the week, the commission carried out a series of trainings for people that will be involved in the election. Speaking during a stakeholders’ meeting in Yenagoa, INEC Chairman, Prof. Mahmood Yakubu, reiterated the commission’s readiness to conduct a free, fair, credible and conclusive poll for the people of the state.

He said the commission had delivered all non-sensitive materials to its office in Yenagoa.

He said: “The materials have been sorted out, categorized and batched, ready to be delivered to the LGAs, wards and polling units.

“The sensitive materials are also ready and the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) is delivering them to Bayelsa State this weekend.

“Voter inducement in all forms, including vote-buying at polling units is a violation of the law. The ban on use of mobile phones and other photographic devices in the voting cubicles is still in force and will be strictly enforced and monitored.
https://www.newsexpressngr.com/news/86119

Mynd44
Meleszenawi
Kyase
Oghenaogie
Freeze
Bayelsaowei
Tonye
Kahal
Obuksbayelsa

The predictions according to apc exactly tallies with mine.verdict: apc win

senatordave1:
The predictions according to apc exactly tallies with mine.verdict: apc win

Same way APC won with ur verdict in AkwaIbom and PDP won the main election

HIGHESTPOPORI:
Same way APC won with ur verdict in AkwaIbom and PDP won the main election

You predicted a buhari loss.you no get shame

senatordave1:

You predicted a buhari loss.you no get shame

Presidential is diff from Governorship

Truth is that it's difficult to accurately predict who will win the election this time around... PDP having many things working against them this time around but that doesn't mean they can't win... Even the Brass that is a stronghold of APC will most likely be more difficult for the APC to win conveniently this time around... The most prepared to rig will most likely carry the day... May the souls of the innocent ones that will die during this election rest in peace...

Let’s see

SmellingAnus:
Truth is that it's difficult to accurately predict who will win the election this time around... PDP having many things working against them this time around but that doesn't mean they can't win... Even the Brass that is a stronghold of APC will most likely be more difficult for the APC to win conveniently this time around... The most prepared to rig will most likely carry the day... May the souls of the innocent ones that will die during this election rest in peace...

You are right.the best rigger will likely win

HIGHESTPOPORI:
Presidential is diff from Governorship

It is the primary one,the ultimate

senatordave1:
The two polls, though far away from the 2023 polls, are seen by the two main political parties in the country as a litmus test for the next general elections, and they have thus activated all weapons in their political armories to achieve victory. In Bayelsa, though 45 political parties are fileding candidates for the election, the contest seems to be practically between the PDP and APC.

While the candidate of the PDP, Senator Douye Diri, is believed to have adequate experience to govern the state, having served as the commissioner, House of Representatives member and presently a senator, his main challenger, the APC candidate, David Lyon, is banking on his philanthropic gestures over the years which have endeared him to the people. Lyon, the oil surveillance contractor for multinational companies working in the state, has used the contract to empower many people in the state through provision of jobs and empowerment of youths, women and other people, attracting enormous support and admiration across the state.

When the idea of Lyon contesting for the governorship seat first emerged in August, there was excitement among the people, most of who believe that making him the governor would help reduce their many years of suffering. On the other hand, Senator Diri, the candidate of the PDP who has enjoyed the full support of incumbent Governor Seriake Dickson, having emerged from his ‘Restoration Caucus Family’, is facing some daunting challenges of scaling through during the election. Aside the complaints of Bayelsans that the eight years of Dickson’s administration have brought suffering to the people, they also complain about non-payment of salaries to civil servants, retirees’ benefits, decay in infrastructure and epileptic power supply, thus, the people believe that voting Diri would be a continuation of Dickson and by extension, an addition to their problems. Going by ongoing campaigns of the two major parties, the chances will be equal for both, while the other parties just seem to be in the contest. While Diri enjoys about 80% support from Sagbama, Kolokuma/Opokuma, the APC candidate is very popular in Southern Ijaw, Nembe and Brass. Both candidates may share votes from Yenagoa, Ekeremor and Yenagoa local governments, while the ongoing strife between Dickson and Jonathan’s kinsmen may give Lyon 60 to 70% of the votes in Ogbia LGA. Last week, the mother of former President Jonathan, Eunice Ayi Jonathan, received the APC candidate in her Otuoke home where she prayed for his success.

This caused some confusion for the PDP. APC, PDP on the scale in eight LGs Brass: Before now, Brass was not a favourable ground for the PDP, right from 2012 when the Jonathan-led federal government stopped a son of the area, Chief Timipre Sylva, from continuing his second tenure as governor of the state. In 2014, when other parties merged to form the APC, Sylva led his people to the new party and worked for its success during the presidential election and also delivered one seat in the state assembly for the party in the area. By 2019, the APC had penetrated Brass where they produced a House of Representatives member and two state assembly seats.

With the brilliant outing in 2019, it is believed that the APC will poll 80% of Brass votes. Ekeremor: In Ekeremor LGA, the contest is still open for both major parties with seeming equal chances. A former deputy governor of the state, Hon. Peremobowei Ebebi, who crossed over to APC and a former Minister of State for Agriculture, Senator Heineken Lokpobiri, are from the area and they will certainly work to deliver the APC in the poll. Kolokuma/Kolokuma:

In Senator Diri’s local government, the PDP is sure of 80% of the votes, despite the fact that the area has the least voting strength in the state, but they will most likely vote for their son to become the next governor, having not produced a governor since the creation of the state.

The recent removal of their son, Tonye Emmanuel Isenah, as speaker of the House of Assembly is a minus for the PDP in the area. Nembe: Traditionally the stronghold of the APC during the last presidential, national and state assembly elections, Nembe delivered almost all the APC candidates including Senator Degi, the deputy governorship candidate of the party.

The local government which is one of the areas with high number of voters will put their votes in bulk for David Lyon and the APC. Obviously, based on the observation, it will be difficult for the PDP to garner 20% of votes from there. Ogbia: Before now, the local government was a stronghold of the PDP, the party that produced all political office holders in the area.

But the narrative changed during the last National Assembly election where the people rejected a senatorial candidate allegedly foisted on them by Governor Dickson and opted for the APC candidate, a situation that made PDP to lose Bayelsa East Senatorial seat to the APC. A repeat of the same scenario is imminent.

Ogbia people are already sympathetic to the APC because of how Dickson overrided Jonathan to bring in Douye Diri as the governorship candidate. Most of the political actors in the area have already decamped from the PDP to the APC while others are still in the PDP working for the APC. Lyon is sure of at least 60% of votes in the area. Sagbama: This is Governor Dickson’s home local government.

The deputy governorship candidate of the PDP, Senator Lawrence Ewhrudjakpo, is also from the area. Here, the PDP may not have any opposition, and is sure of at least 90% of votes. For now, Sagbama is the stronghold of the PDP.

Southern Ijaw: David Lyon’s home local government, where the APC is very popular. During the National Assembly election earlier in the year, the party’s candidate, Preye Oseke, defeated the then Speaker of the state House of Assembly, Mr. Konbowei Benson, for the House of Representatives seat.

The APC at the moment has taken over all the villages of Southern Ijaw, and it is sure of at least 90% of the votes there. The area has the second highest voting strength. Yenagoa: The state capital, it has the highest concentration of people and highest voting strength, but the two dominant parties have equal chances here.

No candidate from Yenagoa is contesting the election and the local government area does not have much stake and interest in the election. INEC’s preparation in Bayelsa INEC has been working round the clock to ensure a hitch-free election in the state. It has been engaging stakeholders and other interest groups to ensure a credible and peaceful election,

Daily Trust on Sunday’s findings revealed. During the week, the commission carried out a series of trainings for people that will be involved in the election. Speaking during a stakeholders’ meeting in Yenagoa, INEC Chairman, Prof. Mahmood Yakubu, reiterated the commission’s readiness to conduct a free, fair, credible and conclusive poll for the people of the state.

He said the commission had delivered all non-sensitive materials to its office in Yenagoa.

He said: “The materials have been sorted out, categorized and batched, ready to be delivered to the LGAs, wards and polling units.

“The sensitive materials are also ready and the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) is delivering them to Bayelsa State this weekend.

“Voter inducement in all forms, including vote-buying at polling units is a violation of the law. The ban on use of mobile phones and other photographic devices in the voting cubicles is still in force and will be strictly enforced and monitored.
https://www.newsexpressngr.com/news/86119

Mynd44
Meleszenawi
Kyase
Oghenaogie
Freeze
Bayelsaowei
Tonye
Kahal
Obuksbayelsa

oga stop quoting me u node hear word or are u mad why una de annoy person must u tag me to news I cab always read haba

senatordave1:

You are right.the best rigger will likely win

. I disagree with you why because you can't rig where you are not popular. So, it all boils down to the people.

FearGodinall:
. I disagree with you why because you can't rig where you are not popular. So, it all boils down to the people.

The apc guy is more popular here fortunately

I must commend SenatorDave for his analysis, though I believe this analysis was gotten from Daily Trust a paper based in the north. truth must be told it's not going to be an easy ride but Douye Diri and PDP will win.
Firstly Bayelsa State is a PDP State where at the last election PDP polled 78% of votes cast, so it will be extremely difficult for APC to change that in less than 7months.
The quality of the candidates have a role to play, Douye Diri is well grounded intellectually and can fashioned out programme that will resonate with the elites and bureaucracy while David Lyon is barely read and in a true sense cannot put together a programme of action that can transform Bayelsa State and definitely will have problem with the elites and bureaucracy, his government will be no different from a government of disbursement and Father Christmas mentality.
It's important at this stage to counter obvious misrepresentation by op and analyst from Daily Trust, firstly he talks of Goodluck Jonathan having an electoral value that his absence from PDP activities will translate to votes for David Lyon, no, that's not true go through the records of 2015 Presidential election and it will show that Jonathan lacks the capacity to win his ward in Ogbia and looking at the 2015 Governorship elections with Dickson as PDP candidate in Ogbia LGA it shows the so-called electoral value of Jonathan while we don't intend to demystify him being a very humble personality he will not add nor subtract anything from PDP and Douye Diri victory at the coming polls. He remains our leader. Coming to your permutations as to likely percentage of votes I will only make a comment that the analyst are/is not on ground to fathom what Bayelsans will do on 16th November 2019 and the analyst seems to be out there to raise a loan for David Lyon. Looking at the bigger picture at the LGA, Douye Diri will defeat David Lyon 60% to 40%.
Southern Ijaw LGA, Douye 45% David 55%.
Kolokuma/Opokuma, Douye 85% David 10%.
Nembe LGA, Douye 35% David 60%.
Ogbia LGA, Douye 45% David 50%.
Sagbama LGA, Douye 90% David 5%.
Ekeremor LGA, Douye 70% David 25%.
Brass LGA, Douye 40% David 60%.
Yenagoa LGA, Douye 65% David 30%.
Douye Diri of PDP will win outright in Kolokuma/Opokuma, Sagbama, Ekeremor, Yenagoa and will make a quarter of the votes in the other four other LGA. more importantly, Southern Ijaw and Nembe may be battle ground. Douye will win I have no doubt about it.

OBUKSBAYELSA:
I must commend SenatorDave for his analysis, though I believe this analysis was gotten from Daily Trust a paper based in the north. truth must be told it's not going to be an easy ride but Douye Diri and PDP will win.
Firstly Bayelsa State is a PDP State where at the last election PDP polled 78% of votes cast, so it will be extremely difficult for APC to change that in less than 7months.
The quality of the candidates have a role to play, Douye Diri is well grounded intellectually and can fashioned out programme that will resonate with the elites and bureaucracy while David Lyon is barely read and in a true sense cannot put together a programme of action that can transform Bayelsa State and definitely will have problem with the elites and bureaucracy, his government will be no different from a government of disbursement and Father Christmas mentality.
It's important at this stage to counter obvious misrepresentation by op and analyst from Daily Trust, firstly he talks of Goodluck Jonathan having an electoral value that his absence from PDP activities will translate to votes for David Lyon, no, that's not true go through the records of 2015 Presidential election and it will show that Jonathan lacks the capacity to win his ward in Ogbia and looking at the 2015 Governorship elections with Dickson as PDP candidate in Ogbia LGA it shows the so-called electoral value of Jonathan while we don't intend to demystify him being a very humble personality he will not add nor subtract anything from PDP and Douye Diri victory at the coming polls. He remains our leader. Coming to your permutations as to likely percentage of votes I will only make a comment that the analyst are/is not on ground to fathom what Bayelsans will do on 16th November 2019 and the analyst seems to be out there to raise a loan for David Lyon. Looking at the bigger picture at the LGA, Douye Diri will defeat David Lyon 60% to 40%.
Southern Ijaw LGA, Douye 45% David 55%.
Kolokuma/Opokuma, Douye 85% David 10%.
Nembe LGA, Douye 35% David 60%.
Ogbia LGA, Douye 45% David 50%.
Sagbama LGA, Douye 90% David 5%.
Ekeremor LGA, Douye 70% David 25%.
Brass LGA, Douye 40% David 60%.
Yenagoa LGA, Douye 65% David 30%.
Douye Diri of PDP will win outright in Kolokuma/Opokuma, Sagbama, Ekeremor, Yenagoa and will make a quarter of the votes in the other four other LGA. more importantly, Southern Ijaw and Nembe may be battle ground. Douye will win I have no doubt about it.

I like your analysis but it is full of half truths.in the last election,atiku had 190000 while buhari had about 120,000 which is about 35% compared to lwhat he got in 2015.apc won a senate seat and two reps seats.so where is the 78%.even in the 2015 guber polls,dickson did not get up to 78%.

Daily trust being a northern based newspaper means nothing after all none of the major dailies are based in bayelsa.most are in lagos but have correspondents everywhere including bayelsa.infact,the northern based news media is even likely to be honest in their analysis than their southern counterparts.they have people on ground in bayelsa who are reporting current happenings.
The most important factors in winning elections are working in favour of lyon.pdp in bayelsa is surrounded,apc is taking that election like a war.this is the closest they have reached in winning a ss state,they wont miss it.dickson's desperate moves should tell you the end is near.to make it easy,lyon is more popular thereby making rigging easy.his limited education doesn't matter as far as he can perform.if it comes to rigging,pdp will lag behind.if it comes to popular votes,same thing.the people relate more and are familiar with lyon than diri.

Looking at your predictions,it is funny.how can you give sagbama and kolokuma 90% to diri and give lyon just 55% in his southern ijaw? He will get nothing less than 80%.same thing will happen in nembe and brass.as for ekeremor pdp will win narrowly like 55%.same thing in yenagoa.whoever will win ogbia will do so narrowly but the deciding votes will come from southern image,nembe and brass.good night

senatordave1:

I like your analysis but it is full of half truths.in the last election,atiku had 190000 while buhari had about 120,000 which is about 35% compared to lwhat he got in 2015.apc won a senate seat and two reps seats.so where is the 78%.even in the 2015 guber polls,dickson did not get up to 78%.

Daily trust being a northern based newspaper means nothing after all none of the major dailies are based in bayelsa.most are in lagos but have correspondents everywhere including bayelsa.infact,the northern based news media is even likely to be honest in their analysis than their southern counterparts.they have people on ground in bayelsa who are reporting current happenings.
The most important factors in winning elections are working in favour of lyon.pdp in bayelsa is surrounded,apc is taking that election like a war.this is the closest they have reached in winning a ss state,they wont miss it.dickson's desperate moves should tell you the end is near.to make it easy,lyon is more popular thereby making rigging easy.his limited education doesn't matter as far as he can perform.if it comes to rigging,pdp will lag behind.if it comes to popular votes,same thing.the people relate more and are familiar with lyon than diri.

Looking at your predictions,it is funny.how can you give sagbama and kolokuma 90% to diri and give lyon just 55% in his southern ijaw? He will get nothing less than 80%.same thing will happen in nembe and brass.as for ekeremor pdp will win narrowly like 55%.same thing in yenagoa.whoever will win ogbia will do so narrowly but the deciding votes will come from southern image,nembe and brass.good night

There are no half truth and my recourse to past records is not based on emotions.
Firstly Southern Ijaw throw up alot of issues, one is that there are four major towns in that LGA three will suffice, they're are battle ground towns viz Amassoma, Oporoma, Ekowei, Douye Diri wife is from Southern Ijaw, and Douye Diri blood flows with Tarakiri people who make up a substantial numbers of voters in that LGA. I make bold to State that it will end 50%-50%. Secondly Yenagoa LGA will shock APC because of the Igbo, Urhobo/Isoko and Akwa Ibom people who will vote for Douye Diri because of ethnic disenchantment with the APC.
Thirdly, Kolokuma/Opokuma will do a thing that will shock the the Ijaw Nation because they have been told that no Kolokuma/Opokuma man or woman can be Governor because they are minority of minority, expect a massive turn out.
fourthly, Ekeremor which is the headquarters of Tarakiri Kingdom will deliver for thier son Douye because the Ijaw society is MATERNALLY Driven. Now you talk about Peremobowei Ebebi(ODUDU) who defected, Ebebi defected because he was offered the Senatorial seat to contest against Seriake Dickson when Lawrence Ewhrudjakpo emerges and will emerge to be sworn in as deputy governor to Douye Diri. Ebebi is a cousin to Douye Diri so both are from Ekeremor, this is coupled with the alledged 100million.If Ebebi believes David will win why jump at the offer of contesting the Senate. FOOD FOR THOUGHT

OBUKSBAYELSA:

There are no half truth and my recourse to past records is not based on emotions.
Firstly Southern Ijaw throw up alot of issues, one is that there are four major towns in that LGA three will suffice, they're are battle ground towns viz Amassoma, Oporoma, Ekowei, Douye Diri wife is from Southern Ijaw, and Douye Diri blood flows with Tarakiri people who make up a substantial numbers of voters in that LGA. I make bold to State that it will end 50%-50%. Secondly Yenagoa LGA will shock APC because of the Igbo, Urhobo/Isoko and Akwa Ibom people who will vote for Douye Diri because of ethnic disenchantment with the APC.
Thirdly, Kolokuma/Opokuma will do a thing that will shock the the Ijaw Nation because they have been told that no Kolokuma/Opokuma man or woman can be Governor because they are minority of minority, expect a massive turn out.
fourthly, Ekeremor which is the headquarters of Tarakiri Kingdom will deliver for thier son Douye because the Ijaw society is MATERNALLY Driven. Now you talk about Peremobowei Ebebi(ODUDU) who defected, Ebebi defected because he was offered the Senatorial seat to contest against Seriake Dickson when Lawrence Ewhrudjakpo emerges and will emerge to be sworn in as deputy governor to Douye Diri. Ebebi is a cousin to Douye Diri so both are from Ekeremor, this is coupled with the alledged 100million.If Ebebi believes David will win why jump at the offer of contesting the Senate. FOOD FOR THOUGHT

I like your analysis but this may not hold water.elections in ss are mostly based on rigging and me and you know that apc has the edge here.pdp are on the defensive.each person will rig his own base.whether majority of the voters in nembe,brass or southern ijaw will vote for against lyon or not wont matter because majority of the votes will be allocated to him.same thing for pdp in sagbama and kolokuma.majority of the voters in yenagoa are indigenes,the non indigenes wont come out much.not every igbo hate apc.if you check,a large number of urhobos,isokos and aks people like apc.therefore,ill still give pdp a narrow win here.

Analyst the 2015 and 2019 polls,you will discover that the gap between them is getting narrow,apc is getting stronger.you have read the statement issued by dickson today and various other desperate moves,pdp are about to lose.nobody has info about pdp chances in bayelsa than him.so give it to apc for now till things change.pdp can still win but apc has the edge here.

senatordave1:

I like your analysis but this may not hold water.elections in ss are mostly based on rigging and me and you know that apc has the edge here.pdp are on the defensive.each person will rig his own base.whether majority of the voters in nembe,brass or southern ijaw will vote for against lyon or not wont matter because majority of the votes will be allocated to him.same thing for pdp in sagbama and kolokuma.majority of the voters in yenagoa are indigenes,the non indigenes wont come out much.not every igbo hate apc.if you check,a large number of urhobos,isokos and aks people like apc.therefore,ill still give pdp a narrow win here.

Analyst the 2015 and 2019 polls,you will discover that the gap between them is getting narrow,apc is getting stronger.you have read the statement issued by dickson today and various other desperate moves,pdp are about to lose.nobody has info about pdp chances in bayelsa than him.so give it to apc for now till things change.pdp can still win but apc has the edge here.

you have moved from rivers state to bayelsa state. Bayelsa state is pdp .pdp is getting bayelsa state again .Bayelsans are voting enmassed for pdp .