₦airaland Forum

lonecatt:
Tinubu should rather step down for osibanjo and not the other way round.
However Osibanjo cannot win the primaries without consensus.

Why?

SOLIDWORLD:
[color=#000000] Save this [/color]

The humiliation will be out of this world if Osinbanjo looses at the primaries. The probability of him loosing to Tinubu is so high let us be frank judging by the realities that has been playing out. I strongly believe that It will be a saving grace for him and his entire family if he humbly steps down in peace and this is the right time honestly.

Unzerious:
Personally speaking, no Southern aspirant under the APC can sufficiently wrestle PDP.

How do you mean?

otipoju:
Tinubu is not interested in bettering Nigeria. All he is concerned with is tribal interests and being in Nigerian history that he was once a President even if its just for six months.

I still dont see how Tinubu becoming president ( one man's ambition) benefits me as a person. That is the foolishness of " omo wa ni, eje ko she" kind of politics.

Merit takes a back seat.

I know a very, very rich man whose source of wealth was from importation of rice, his business declined to zero with President Buhari's policy on the ban on foreign rice. He tried smuggling but wasn't successful. Millions of naira was lost to the Nigerian Customs who impounded the rice he tried smuggling into Nigeria through one of her boarders. This man's life and his family is so miserable today. A single government policy can make or break you.

HardMirror:
do it yourself and show us.

I have already. Infact with two complete charts. 2011 and 2015 being that Gej is a common factor in our discussion. This is what know one can take away from Tinubu, a MASTER STRATEGIST accept it or not. Is it not evident that he has successfully expanded his political structure with a very firm base to the Northern of Nigeria over the past seven years due to the 'propaganda' that he was responsible for Buhari's victory. He has the likes of Ganduje, Shettima, Almakura,.........his forms was infact endorsed by 10 Northern governors. My dear brother, his 'propaganda' is working for him. Hardmirror, the way Tinubu is so held on very high esteem in the North is not as so in the South. Once Tinubu becomes the Flag bearer of APC, the probability of him winning the general is above 90%. Because that is when he will put fully his propaganda machineries to full effect.

HardMirror:
2011, pdp had 22 million votes, acn had 2 million votes and cpc had 12million votes. Add tinubus 2million to that of Buhari, that is 14 million votes for Buhari and still 22million for gen. I am using these figures since you want us to build from the fact that tinubu controlled sw votes. We have added the whole acn votes of tinubu to that of buhari and yet he does not still win. That shows you that the problem for Buhari was not buhari himself but pdp he was contesting against. The breakup of pdp won Buhari the election and not tinubu

Do the same with 2015 when Tinubu became an ally of Buhari let us see.

Donshegxy10:
I honestly think your hatred is not allowing you to see the politics of 2015 clearly, if ACN had won south west in 2015 and buhari got his usual votes in South west, it would have been game over for him as usual because Jonathan would have cruised to victory.

Which is what has always been happening. Bearing in mind that, only Buhari has been so privileged to contest again and again and again. Other winners contested just once and won him. Despite all the massive votes he gets from the North. The game changer was the support he got from the South West no matter how little. This is a vivid fact.

PaChukwudi44:
Tinubu percentage in Buhari's victory was not more than 25% but the SW media made it look like he singlehandedly made Buhari president

That 25% was what has been missing the last three times he has been contesting as a loser. I hope you know that. All the massive vote he usually gets by default just couldn't win him elections, he needed that 'marginal difference' from the South West.

HardMirror:
subtract the numbers from 2015 election, it is still not significant as you are assuming. Barely 2million votes. With all the issues pdp was having then, Buhari's result would have been even better. Pdp would still win southwest but would it have been more than 1million votes?

Hardmirror I know you as a gambler hence you understand that it doesn't matter if Liverpool had more shots on target than Realmadrid what counts is the score line.

My dear brother, what you consider as a mere 1 million votes would have been a disservice to Buhari assuming the counted against him but in favour of Gej even with that 'marginal difference'. Do you agree?

HardMirror:
2009?

Oh am so sorry, I meant 2011. Thank you for the correction. Well below is the statistics with regards to the Southwest in 2011 elections. It was the same Buhari vs the same Gej. So what happened in 2015 that produces a totally different results for the same candidates with reference to South West. The SouthEast have never voted in favour of Buhari till date. Hardmirror, compare the statistics, what could be responsible for the difference. Am sure that as you have rightly claimed, Buhari in an old grown name in that SouthWest before 2015. Will you like to analyse the votes Buhari have been getting from Southwest since he started contesting for President?

HardMirror:
buhari would most likely have won without tinubu. He did not need to win the SW. You underestimate the influence Buhari had in southwest. There was empathy for him already because of Idiagbon. I remember how the elderly people spoke very well about Buhari as a good leader that does not tolerate nonsense. My parents and many elderly people sang his praises already not because of tinubu. If tinubu had presented another candidate, ACN would have come third again. The SW votes would go into 3 places, buhari did not need to win sw. Tinubu's party would have cut out of GEJs votes in southwest naturally. There was no way for Gej to win SW anyway.

But did GEJ, on the platform of PDP win the South West when he contested in 2009?

,

HardMirror:
votes sw gave Buhari in 2015 was very marginal. Look at the figures.

As marginal as it may be. According to facts, prior to 2015 how did the votes for Buhari in the southwest impact the overall result when he contested threes times previously?

HardMirror:
the fracture in PDP played the biggest role in 2015. A lot happened that were bigger than the contribution of tinubu. The party conflict was really bad for pdp even in most southwest states such as lagos, indo and ogun. Without the collapse of pdp, apc did not stand a chance. You must always put into consideration that tinubu never did well at the national level, infact his influence was badly limited to sw until very recently. The point of this thread if to debunk the narrative that tinubu made buhari president.

My point is to try to understand your point of perspective altogether. I believe that by asking you questions things will get clearer through deductions from how you choose to answer them. You have said the bolded about Tinubu, I agree with you that Tinubu's influence was very much limited to the SW even though lots of politicians from the North have spoken so well about how he has play a role in them being politicians. Wasn't Buhari's influence very much limited to the North or he had a greater influence in the SW than Tinubu so much that he would have won his forth time contesting against a "collapsing PDP"?

Or the North was just enough like he did already have guaranteed votes from the North?

HardMirror:
It should be noted that until last year Tinubu had no structure in the north. So how did he make Buhari win? Why should buhari feel indebted to tinubu? When Tinubu could not even deliver Lagos and South west to Buhari? He only won with very narrow margins that did not help. If not for the north where Buhari was strong he would have lost to Gej again

I intentionally had to create a new moniker so that my questions may be answered without it having a negative effect on our long term relationship on NL.

Am curious to know why Buhari contested 3 times and losing despite the massive votes he gets from the North. What did the North do differently that made him win the fourth time?