Softmirror:

[/b]


I intentionally had to create a new moniker so that my questions may be answered without it having a negative effect on our long term relationship on NL.

Am curious to know why Buhari contested 3 times and losing despite the massive votes he gets from the North. What did the North do differently that made him win the fourth time?

the fracture in PDP played the biggest role in 2015. A lot happened that were bigger than the contribution of tinubu. The party conflict was really bad for pdp even in most southwest states such as lagos, indo and ogun. Without the collapse of pdp, apc did not stand a chance. You must always put into consideration that tinubu never did well at the national level, infact his influence was badly limited to sw until very recently. The point of this thread if to debunk the narrative that tinubu made buhari president.
https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/top-news/183330-defection-of-5-pdp-governors-ensured-victory-for-apc-okorocha.html

Even Atiku and obj decamped. It would have been a miracle for gen to win

ChoCho54:
And what's Lagos today? El dorado?

It is what it is, if e no make sense people no go dey rush am.

YeyeGbami:


It is what it is, if e no make sense people no go dey rush am.

people have been rushing lagos before 1960. Why are we assuming no person could have performed better than tinubu and his boys? That assumption makes no sense.

HardMirror:
Tinubu supporters have always acclaimed the political genius Tinubu is. How without Tinubu, Buhari can never become president, How tinubu ensured Buhari won.


How True is this.
To get the truth, we have to look at the facts, to get the facts we have to look at the records.

2007
In 2007 Tinubu and Atiku aligned against Obasanjo and Yaradua. They spent money, played all their cards but still lost to Yaradua. Not only did they lose, Atiku came a distant 3rd.
Yaradua had 24.6 Million votes
BUHARI HAD 6 million votes
ATIKU WITH TINUBUS HELP ONLY HAD 2.6 million votes.
Buhari had 4million votes more than tinubu and atiku could get without spending the money tinubu and atiku spent
So tinubu proved to be a light weight in national politics in 2007.

2011
Tinubu regroup again in 2011 with his ACN party and presented Nuhu Ribadu. How well did they do?
Jagaban was only able to get 2million votes where Buhari without the money and Media strategies of Mr. Tinubu got a whopping 12 million votes. JONATHAN WON WITH 22MILLION VOTES!

Again Tinubu failed woefully in 2011, he even got lesser votes than in 2007. But Buhari got double the votes he had in 2007. Showing that Buhari was getting more popular and stronger.

2015
2015 was finally the year that projected tinubu to the status he hold till date. It is believed that tinubu helped Buhari win. BUT DID HE? Let us look at the results again.
LAGOS AND OSUN STATE ARE THE 2 STATES COMPLETELY UNDER TINUBU YET BUHARI ONLY WON NARROWLY BY ABOUT 100,000 VOTES IN BOTH STATES. TINUBU could not deliver massive votes for Buhari in the Entire SW. It was embarrassing.
Buhari only managed to win GEJ thanks to KANO, KATSINA and KADUNA. Where he massively floored GEJ. If not for Buhari's popularity in the North, he would have lost as he only narrowly won GEJ. This is also thanks to Kwankwaso as you can see how mu h kwankwaso helped Atiku in 2019 again. Proving kwankwaso is a bigger fish than tinubu in national politics always giving his candidates massive results.

Please note that TINUBU had zero influence in the states that gave Buhari massive votes in 2015.

GEJ HAD PDP CRISIS AT THAT TIME HEADED BY OBASANJO WHO LEFT PDP. not tinubu.

North felt Yaradua did not finish his tenure and a northerner must continue not GEJ.

CHIBOK GIRLS kidnap also was a big factor that tarnished Gej as incompetent.


In all this Tinubu had almost no positive contribution that helped Buhari win.

He paid media and people to go online and start spreading the news that he was the master mind behind Buhari winning. Buhari had always been bigger than tinubu in national politics and the results are there for all to see. Tinubu could not even deliver for Buhari in 2015

You guys will sit in the corner of your house and decide to hate one man because he booted out your favorite candidate in 2015.

Beolly:

You guys will sit in the corner of your house and decide to hate one man because he booted out your favorite candidate in 2015.

buhari was my candidate in 2015. Tinubu did not boot gen out. That is a lie that has been spread to make tinubu look bigger than he is. Same tinubu could never get half the votes Buhari was getting in all elections before 2015

Since buhari has been contesting, he has never won in the south, in 2015 he failed woefully in the south south and south east but he was only able to win in South west which he has never done before all because of TINUBU influence.

Did any notable PDP politician decamped to APC?
Don't even mention obj because the man is irrelevant, he has never won anything in the south west.

Like him or hate him, without TINUBU buhari would not have become Nigeria president.

HardMirror:
buhari was my candidate in 2015. Tinubu did not boot gen out. That is a lie that has been spread to make tinubu look bigger than he is. Same tinubu could never get half the votes Buhari was getting in all elections before 2015

He does not need to get half of buhari's vote, all he needed to do is to influence his people in a region where buhari has always fail.

That should not be difficult for you to understand.

HardMirror:
the fracture in PDP played the biggest role in 2015. A lot happened that were bigger than the contribution of tinubu. The party conflict was really bad for pdp even in most southwest states such as lagos, indo and ogun. Without the collapse of pdp, apc did not stand a chance. You must always put into consideration that tinubu never did well at the national level, infact his influence was badly limited to sw until very recently. The point of this thread if to debunk the narrative that tinubu made buhari president.

My point is to try to understand your point of perspective altogether. I believe that by asking you questions things will get clearer through deductions from how you choose to answer them. You have said the bolded about Tinubu, I agree with you that Tinubu's influence was very much limited to the SW even though lots of politicians from the North have spoken so well about how he has play a role in them being politicians. Wasn't Buhari's influence very much limited to the North or he had a greater influence in the SW than Tinubu so much that he would have won his forth time contesting against a "collapsing PDP"?

Or the North was just enough like he did already have guaranteed votes from the North?

Donshegxy10:


He does not need to get half of buhari's vote, all he needed to do is to influence his people in a region where buhari has always fail.

That should not be difficult for you to understand.

how big was his influence? You need to look at the numbers. He could not even win lagos convincingly. It was just a narrow escape.

Softmirror:


My point is to try to understand your point of perspective altogether. I believe that by asking you questions things will get clearer through deductions from how you choose to answer them. You have said the bolded about Tinubu, I agree with you that Tinubu's influence was very much limited to the SW even though lots of politicians from the North have spoken so well about how he has play a role in them being politicians. Wasn't Buhari's influence very much limited to the North or he had a greater influence in the SW than Tinubu so much that he would have won his forth time contesting against a "collapsing PDP"?

Or the North was just enough like he did already have guaranteed votes from the North?

votes sw gave Buhari in 2015 was very marginal. Look at the figures.

SIRTee15:


I dont have strength for argument. Your answer is here.
https://ng.opera.news/ng/en/politics/294acf83e18df691433af0ca1df4e0b1

This is an excepts below right from the mouth of Babachir Lawal, a northerner and former SSG under Buhari

https://www.page36news.com/2020/08/23/breaking-apc-chieftain-confesses-that-bola-tinubu-paid-the-best-american-consultants-to-transform-buharis-image-for-the-2015-presidential-election-and-must-be-compensated-with-the-2023-presidency/

How did you manage to turn around the negative perceptions the public had of Buhari?

At the time, Nigerians saw Buhari as just a wood. He had no emotions. People were not seeing him as a loving husband and father, and doubted if he could be humane. It was Tinubu who brought in Consultants from the US, the firm behind the successful execution of President Barrack Obama’s campaign. It helped to repackage Buhari to Nigerians. They came and started from the scratch; they did some research work for us. They told us where Buhari was weak, and the messages needed to change the long held perception, using billboards, and other campaign methods.

That was when you started seeing Buhari wearing a suit, and in Igbo, Yoruba, and Kanuri attire. It was then people started to see Buhari as a family man with his beautiful daughters.

The strategy was to transform his image, and show a humane, loving, and trustworthy person. It helped us. At some point during our strategy sessions, the Consultants asked us: why do you not allow Buhari’s wife to come out, so that she can be contrasted with Dame Patience Jonathan? When you do that, you would have won the election already, they said. She provided a contrast to the former First Lady.

Rallies do not win elections. It is the underground work that wins elections. Almost the same thing repeated itself in 2019. Tinubu does not like to take credit for what he does; he lives for politics, gets his money from politics, and spends it on politics. He has no other interest except politics. The monies he spent out of his pocket that are unaccounted for outside of the party’s campaign finances, are quite enormous.


In case u looking for foreign independent source regarding David Axelrod involvement with APC in Nigeria. see below.

https://freebeacon.com/issues/david-axelrods-political-consulting-firm-far-more-involved-in-nigeria-election-than-previously-disclosed/

https://oblongmedia.net/2017/04/13/david-axelrod-one-of-the-foreign-hands-that-plotted-nigerian-president-jonathans-downfall/

David Axelrod's firm even conducted social media polls for the APC including arranging social media events. They had meeting with Fayemi, Olubunmi and Amechi.


You are very naive to think a top govt social official cant get directly involved in nigerian electoral campaign. It shows you know nothing about America apart from what you see in Hollywood. People that have been appointing your leaders/Presidents to preside over Nigeria on their behalf for the last 60 years.

Whatever beef international community had against Jonathan doesnt matter, they've had enough of him and were determined to get rid of him. APC led by Tinubu gave them the platform to arch their plan and the rest of gullible Nigerians fell for it.

I never said Tinubu presented Buhari as a democrat. read my words well. I said he presented him as a reformist and a nationalist. previously, buhari was seen as a ethnocentric fulani bigot who believes in the entrenhment of northern Nigeria hegemony.

Babachir Lawal. Where was he in 2015? He wasn't part of the campaign council from what I know. Anyway, I have not said Tinubu did not bring in Axelrod's company. What I said is there are no facts in the public domain to back that up and Babachir making that claim to prove Tinubu deserves second term ticket can hardly be taken as a trustworthy source.

As far as I know, he's only selling his candidate and if you really believe campaign ads is what swayed northern votes in NC to vote Buhari instead of Jonathan you might not really be knowledgeable about the events of 2015.

FYI. I was traversing Niger, Nasarawa and Abuja in 2015 and I know the locales then cared less about whether buhari was a reformist or nationalist. Within the space of two months, bombs went off in St Theresa Catholic Church in Suleja and FCE Kontangora. You think Niger state voters were worried about reforms or security?

Who could forget Nyanya park bombing and the UN office building? Topping it all was the Chibok girls' kidnap. Do you realize Michelle Obama raised up a Bring Back our Girls poster in the White House? These are the events that shaped the 2015 elections in Nigeria, not reforms and nationalism.

It was more about corruption and security, which was why change was well received among the populace.

I hope you know those "foreign independent source" are actually right-wing media looking to paint Axelrod as a corrupt official who benefits from interfering in elections of third world countries and causing instability in those countries. Check the two links out very well. I hope you know how to spot if a medium is left or right.

It is you that need to re-read that link and see how AKPD dissociated themselves from Buhari's campaign as much as possible. It is you Nigerians that usually thinks the Americans have nothing better to do than to sit around and influence elections in a third world disaster like Nigeria. FYI, the official Western position is non-interference in democratic processes of foreign nations. So if you think Axelrod is going to carry Buhari's campaign on his head and own it with his full chest while working for Obama, you may need to check naivety again. You even think the coups and counter-coups in Nigeria have been of the US's making. Really?

Do you know that Jonathan also hired an American company to consult for his campaign too? Well, he did. And the company was left leaning as well. You see, the difference is what I have told you and what Jonathan said himself. Obama was unhappy with Jonathan over anti-gay law. I hope you know Buhari had to tell Obama homosexuality was alien to our cultural nuances shortly after he took office and visited Obama. Check it out.

HardMirror:
people have been rushing lagos before 1960. Why are we assuming no person could have performed better than tinubu and his boys? That assumption makes no sense.

And they are still rushing till tomorrow.

HardMirror:
votes sw gave Buhari in 2015 was very marginal. Look at the figures.

As marginal as it may be. According to facts, prior to 2015 how did the votes for Buhari in the southwest impact the overall result when he contested threes times previously?

HardMirror:
how big was his influence? You need to look at the numbers. He could not even win lagos convincingly. It was just a narrow escape.

Let us be open minded here, narrowly is not the issue, this is a region where buhari has never gotten up to 25% in all of his running.

It may be narrow but he won, if south west has voted the way they has always voted , just like how South South and south east did, buhari where not be here today.

I repeat if not for TINUBU's vote in the south west Jonathan would have won easily.

Politics is about aligning with a region or more to garner their votes.

TINUBU BROUGHT HIS SOUTH WEST VOTES TO THE TABLE, voted that has eluded buhari for years.

Softmirror:


My point is to try to understand your point of perspective altogether. I believe that by asking you questions things will get clearer through deductions from how you choose to answer them. You have said the bolded about Tinubu, I agree with you that Tinubu's influence was very much limited to the SW even though lots of politicians from the North have spoken so well about how he has play a role in them being politicians. Wasn't Buhari's influence very much limited to the North or he had a greater influence in the SW than Tinubu so much that he would have won his forth time contesting against a "collapsing PDP"?

Or the North was just enough like he did already have guaranteed votes from the North?

buhari would most likely have won without tinubu. He did not need to win the SW. You underestimate the influence Buhari had in southwest. There was empathy for him already because of Idiagbon. I remember how the elderly people spoke very well about Buhari as a good leader that does not tolerate nonsense. My parents and many elderly people sang his praises already not because of tinubu. If tinubu had presented another candidate, ACN would have come third again. The SW votes would go into 3 places, buhari did not need to win sw. Tinubu's party would have cut out of GEJs votes in southwest naturally. There was no way for Gej to win SW anyway.

Softmirror:


As marginal as it may be. According to facts, prior to 2015 how did the votes for Buhari in the southwest impact the overall result when he contested threes times previously?

Sadly he has never gotten 25 percentage in South west until TINUBU came on board.

Donshegxy10:


Let us be open minded here, narrowly is not the issue, this is a region where buhari has never gotten up to 25% in all of his running.

It may be narrow but he won, if south west has voted the way they has always voted , just like how South South and south east did, buhari where not be here today.

I repeat if not for TINUBU's vote in the south west Jonathan would have won easily.

Politics is about aligning with a region or more to garner their votes.

TINUBU BROUGHT HIS SOUTH WEST VOTES TO THE TABLE, voted that has eluded buhari for years.

are you saying if tinubu did not align with Buhari, ACN wont present a candidate? Now imagine if tinubu had their candidate, wont that candidate take out of the sw votes that would have gone to gej? So buhari would still win without tinubu. Tinubu used Buhari and not the other way round

Donshegxy10:


Sadly he has never gotten 25 percentage in South west until TINUBU came on board.

he did not need it. ACN would have ensured that gej never won sw anyway.

HardMirror:
he did not need it. ACN would have ensured that gej never won sw anyway.

You are funny, are you just talking for talking sake, if he failed in South west as he always does, how will he meet the national spread.

Yes ACN would have won south West which also means that buhari will get his usual 5% from the south west and PDP will get over 40% in the south west which automatically will give power to Jonathan.

Don't forget that apart from getting highest number of votes which buhari has never done before, meeting up with the national spread is key, and there is no way buhari can do so by losing in South east, south east and south west, if not for TINUBU, buhari presidency would have been a dream that never sees the light of the day.

Remember that the plot failed in 2011, you think buhari is dunce to come back begging for TINUBU's help?

Giving anyone the ticket without the support of tinubu will be the biggest mistake of APC.

Consider my point with an open mind not from a place of hatred.

HardMirror:
he did not need it. ACN would have ensured that gej never won sw anyway.

I honestly think your hatred is not allowing you to see the politics of 2015 clearly, if ACN had won south west in 2015 and buhari got his usual votes in South west, it would have been game over for him as usual because Jonathan would have cruised to victory.

Donshegxy10:


You are funny, are you just talking for talking sake, if he failed in South west as he always does, how will he meet the national spread.

Yes ACN would have won south West which also means that buhari will get his usual 5% from the south west and PDP will get over 40% in the south west which automatically will give power to Jonathan.

Don't forget that apart from getting highest number of votes which buhari has never done before, meeting up with the national spread is key, and there is no way buhari can do so by losing in South east, south east and south west, if not for TINUBU, buhari presidency would have been a dream that never sees the light of the day.

Remember that the plot failed in 2011, you think buhari is dunce to come back begging for TINUBU's help?

Giving anyone the ticket without the support of tinubu will be the biggest mistake of APC.

Consider my point with an open mind not from a place of hatred.

buhari was not going to get 5% I am yoruba and I live in lagos. I remember at that time, yorubas were ready to give him a chance and it had nothing to do with tinubu

Donshegxy10:


I honestly think your hatred is not allowing you to see the politics of 2015 clearly, if ACN had won south west in 2015 and buhari got his usual votes in South west, it would have been game over for him as usual because Jonathan would have cruised to victory.

fine. Gej cruise to victory. Where does it leave tinubu?

HardMirror:
he did not need it. ACN would have ensured that gej never won sw anyway.

There you go spinning history on the head as usual. The support Tinubu gave GEJ in 2009 and 2011 is not a top secret. Similar to Tambuwal backing out for Atiku. All the candidates Tinubu aligned with since 2011 has won.

Niwdog:
Na only mumu for politics believe say tinubu make buhari president
I will keep repeating it the Npdp
Made buhari president
If those five heavy weight politicians didn't left PDP buhari for no win that election
Kwakwansiya movement in 2015 was massive and we all witnessed it
Same kwakwansiya movement helped Atiku in 2019
Don't know how people understand politics in Nigeria
Maybe na media politics most Nigeria youths understand
They haven't listened to real political analyst before

He is not the one abi ? Then why you people then heap all the blames and inadequacy of APC on him and him alone.

HardMirror:
fine. Gej cruise to victory. Where does it leave tinubu?

He will continue to be relevant in South west has he has always been.

The question should be where does it leave buhari?

Bubu will be in daura katsina state attending to his cows.

So tell me who will be the biggest loser

Alary:



He is not the one abi ? Then why you people then heap all the blames and inadequacy of APC on him and him alone.

people doing that are silly. Why not blame buhari

Donshegxy10:


He will continue to be relevant in South west has he has always been.

The question should be where does it leave buhari?

Bubu will be in daura katsina state attending to his cows.

So tell me who will be the biggest loser

it leaves buhari where he had always been. And it leaves tinubu only relevant in sw or should I say lagos because he is losing sw gradually

,

HardMirror:
buhari was not going to get 5% I am yoruba and I live in lagos. I remember at that time, yorubas were ready to give him a chance and it had nothing to do with tinubu

lol, the hatred is colour blind.

[quote author=Softmirror post=113375164][/quote] 2009?

HardMirror:
buhari was not going to get 5% I am yoruba and I live in lagos. I remember at that time, yorubas were ready to give him a chance and it had nothing to do with tinubu

No, it has everything to do with TINUBU, you don't know that politics is more than just voting, all those things lai Mohammed was always speaking in the news men, social media packaging, the way buhari was packaged for Nigerians, who do you think spear headed it.

Tinubu is a strategist even the opposition always give him credit for his understanding of Nigerian politics.

Even myself I was scared to vote for buhari because of his dictatorship tendencies and his docile disposition in the 80s, if not for TINUBU many people in the south would not have voted for buhari.

HardMirror:
buhari would most likely have won without tinubu. He did not need to win the SW. You underestimate the influence Buhari had in southwest. There was empathy for him already because of Idiagbon. I remember how the elderly people spoke very well about Buhari as a good leader that does not tolerate nonsense. My parents and many elderly people sang his praises already not because of tinubu. If tinubu had presented another candidate, ACN would have come third again. The SW votes would go into 3 places, buhari did not need to win sw. Tinubu's party would have cut out of GEJs votes in southwest naturally. There was no way for Gej to win SW anyway.

But did GEJ, on the platform of PDP win the South West when he contested in 2009?