₦airaland Forum

ImmaculateJOE:
Atiku cannot win the following state.

Abia
Anambra
Ebonyi
Enugu
Imo
Cross River
Edo
Rivers
Plateau
Benue
FCT.. They belong to Peter Obi... I do care about the list above..

You are so DOCILE upstairs.

ImmaculateJOE:
Atiku cannot win the following state.

Abia
Anambra
Ebonyi
Enugu
Imo
Cross River
Edo
Rivers
Plateau
Benue
FCT.. They belong to Peter Obi... I do care about the list above..

You are so DOCILE upstairs..

adedayofrosh:
19 states where Tinubu may lose the 2023 presidential election


Bola Tinubu is finally one more step away from the presidency after decades of plotting. The former Lagos state governor cofounded the ruling APC and helped President Muhammadu Buhari to win two elections. Now, he believes it’s his turn to rule the country. But this won’t be a coronation. Below are 19 states where he may lose the 2023 election.

Osun
The main opposition PDP lost the 2019 presidential election in this state by only a 1% point – and yet it did not control the state at the time. This changed last year when the PDP won the state gubernatorial election. The opposition has strengthened its position here and the APC is fractured locally. The ruling party is unlikely to win next month’s election in this state.

Imo
Imo is the only state in the southeast that Tinubu’s APC controls, but the state governor and the party are highly unpopular. At best, the party will muster enough votes to satisfy a constitutional requirement that a winning candidate must get 25% of votes in at least two-thirds of states nationwide and the capital Abuja.

Anambra
The PDP comfortably won Anambra in the last five presidential elections, but this time it faces stiff competition because LP candidate Peter Obi comes from this state. Tinubu is not expected to put up a meaningful challenge there.

Plateau
Plateau presently has the most registered voters in the central north. It is a swing state with a largely Christian population, and there is constant friction between Christians and Muslims given the dynamic between the central north and the rest of the mostly Muslim north.
This is why many stakeholders flinched when Tinubu, a Muslim, picked another Muslim as his running mate – neglecting an unwritten Nigerian rule that a president and his vice cannot both be of the same faith. Voters in Plateau will have that in mind.

Enugu
The PDP always wins this southeastern state by a landslide. The party’s current candidate Atiku Abubakar got 84% of the votes in the last presidential election. If that changes this time, it won’t be because Tinubu’s on the ballot but because a more popular Obi has emerged.

Benue
Benue is a predominantly Christian state in the central north. As in Plateau, voters are averse to the APC’s Muslim-Muslim arrangement due to pre-existing religious tensions in the state. The election will be competitive here, but the PDP candidate should earn a second consecutive victory.

Taraba
Voters in Taraba have never elected a Muslim state governor, so it’s improbable they’ll vote for a party with two Muslim running mates. The state is mainly Christian and is currently controlled by the PDP.

Sokoto
The northwest is the stronghold of Tinubu’s APC, which runs all the states in this region except Sokoto. The party swept votes in this northwest area last time, but that was because its candidate Buhari is seen in the area as its religious and ethnic leader.

Now, the president’s not on the ballot for the first time since 2003. This means another candidate’s going to inherit that large segment of the electorate who vote on the basis of religion and ethnicity. Tinubu’s apparently not that candidate – northern Muslims consider southern Muslims inferior. The NNPP’s Rabiu Kwankwaso and PDP’s Atiku are ahead here because they’re both northern Muslims and Hausa-Fulani.

Rivers
Rivers has more voters than any other state in the oil-rich Niger Delta. The state (and the rest of the southern region) is a PDP stronghold – it’s always won presidential elections by a wide margin there. But the PDP state governor now bizarrely opposes his own party’s candidate. This infighting may allow Tinubu to squeeze out enough votes to meet the 25% constitutional threshold, but his supporters still won’t expect him to win the state.

Delta
The PDP won 72% of votes in this southern state last time. Now, the state governor is also the party’s vice-presidential candidate. Tinubu will be devoting the bulk of his resources elsewhere.

Abuja
The PDP won the country’s capital five times as the ruling party and still did so in 2019 when it was in the opposition. This pattern will likely continue this year.

Ondo
Ondo is in Tinubu’s backyard: the southwest. But his party APC lost the presidential election there last time even though it runs the state. This is because the party was splintered not just in the state but also in the region. That dynamic is still at play this year.

Cross River
[/b]Atiku neatly beat the APC’s Buhari here last time with 70% of the votes. The southern state now has an APC state governor, but Tinubu seems prepared for a defeat so long as he can get up to 25% of the votes in this state toward fulfilling the constitutional requirement in two-thirds of the 36 states.

[b]Adamawa
Tinubu’s main opponent Atiku is from this state in the northeast. The ruling APC won this historically PDP state for the first time in 2015, but Atiku was in the APC at the time. Atiku should continue his home winning streak next month.

Akwa Ibom
[/b]A Tinubu win in Akwa Ibom will be a miracle. Getting 25% or more of the votes should be enough success for the ruling party candidate.

[b]Edo
The margin here in the 2019 election was barely 2% points. Next month’s election in the state will again be closely contested, and the PDP has the upper hand given it’s presently in charge of the state.

Bayelsa
Tinubu will hope that former (and current) PDP figures in this state, such as oil minister and ex-Bayelsa state governor Timipre Sylva, can get him a decent tally there. But no one should anticipate a Tinubu victory.

Abia
The Abia state governor is one of five PDP state governors who are rumored to be discussing a deal with Tinubu to sabotage their own party. Note: it’s not really ‘sabotage’ in the eyes of Nigerian politicians, who freely switch parties when it personally benefits them.

President Buhari would barely win a few thousand votes in Abia (or any other state in the southeast) in a fair election, but he managed to rally 26% of the votes in 2019 – just enough to get over the constitutional line – with the state governor’s tacit cooperation. Tinubu should expect this cooperation again this time. He knows he’s unpopular here, and so winning the state is not his priority.

Ebonyi
Ebonyi is another state where President Buhari somehow managed to get over the constitutional line in 2019 – with 25.26% of the votes. The PDP state governor who covertly organized this result has in fact since joined the ruling party. Tinubu will count on him to organize this simple result for him again, leaving Atiku and Obi to slug it out while he directs his own energy elsewhere.

Read also: 18 states where Atiku may lose this election (https://www.nairaland.com/7541627/18-states-where-atiku-may)


Adedayo Ademuwagun is a political risk consultant. Email adedayofrosh@gmail.com. LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/adedayoademuwagun/

Same thing said about Buhari...

Una go learn new things in a month.

adedayofrosh:
19 states where Tinubu may lose the 2023 presidential election


Bola Tinubu is finally one more step away from the presidency after decades of plotting. The former Lagos state governor cofounded the ruling APC and helped President Muhammadu Buhari to win two elections. Now, he believes it’s his turn to rule the country. But this won’t be a coronation. Below are 19 states where he may lose the 2023 election.

Osun
The main opposition PDP lost the 2019 presidential election in this state by only a 1% point – and yet it did not control the state at the time. This changed last year when the PDP won the state gubernatorial election. The opposition has strengthened its position here and the APC is fractured locally. The ruling party is unlikely to win next month’s election in this state.

Imo
Imo is the only state in the southeast that Tinubu’s APC controls, but the state governor and the party are highly unpopular. At best, the party will muster enough votes to satisfy a constitutional requirement that a winning candidate must get 25% of votes in at least two-thirds of states nationwide and the capital Abuja.

Anambra
The PDP comfortably won Anambra in the last five presidential elections, but this time it faces stiff competition because LP candidate Peter Obi comes from this state. Tinubu is not expected to put up a meaningful challenge there.

Plateau
Plateau presently has the most registered voters in the central north. It is a swing state with a largely Christian population, and there is constant friction between Christians and Muslims given the dynamic between the central north and the rest of the mostly Muslim north.
This is why many stakeholders flinched when Tinubu, a Muslim, picked another Muslim as his running mate – neglecting an unwritten Nigerian rule that a president and his vice cannot both be of the same faith. Voters in Plateau will have that in mind.

Enugu
The PDP always wins this southeastern state by a landslide. The party’s current candidate Atiku Abubakar got 84% of the votes in the last presidential election. If that changes this time, it won’t be because Tinubu’s on the ballot but because a more popular Obi has emerged.

Benue
Benue is a predominantly Christian state in the central north. As in Plateau, voters are averse to the APC’s Muslim-Muslim arrangement due to pre-existing religious tensions in the state. The election will be competitive here, but the PDP candidate should earn a second consecutive victory.

Taraba
Voters in Taraba have never elected a Muslim state governor, so it’s improbable they’ll vote for a party with two Muslim running mates. The state is mainly Christian and is currently controlled by the PDP.

Sokoto
The northwest is the stronghold of Tinubu’s APC, which runs all the states in this region except Sokoto. The party swept votes in this northwest area last time, but that was because its candidate Buhari is seen in the area as its religious and ethnic leader.

Now, the president’s not on the ballot for the first time since 2003. This means another candidate’s going to inherit that large segment of the electorate who vote on the basis of religion and ethnicity. Tinubu’s apparently not that candidate – northern Muslims consider southern Muslims inferior. The NNPP’s Rabiu Kwankwaso and PDP’s Atiku are ahead here because they’re both northern Muslims and Hausa-Fulani.

Rivers
Rivers has more voters than any other state in the oil-rich Niger Delta. The state (and the rest of the southern region) is a PDP stronghold – it’s always won presidential elections by a wide margin there. But the PDP state governor now bizarrely opposes his own party’s candidate. This infighting may allow Tinubu to squeeze out enough votes to meet the 25% constitutional threshold, but his supporters still won’t expect him to win the state.

Delta
The PDP won 72% of votes in this southern state last time. Now, the state governor is also the party’s vice-presidential candidate. Tinubu will be devoting the bulk of his resources elsewhere.

Abuja
The PDP won the country’s capital five times as the ruling party and still did so in 2019 when it was in the opposition. This pattern will likely continue this year.

Ondo
Ondo is in Tinubu’s backyard: the southwest. But his party APC lost the presidential election there last time even though it runs the state. This is because the party was splintered not just in the state but also in the region. That dynamic is still at play this year.

Cross River
[/b]Atiku neatly beat the APC’s Buhari here last time with 70% of the votes. The southern state now has an APC state governor, but Tinubu seems prepared for a defeat so long as he can get up to 25% of the votes in this state toward fulfilling the constitutional requirement in two-thirds of the 36 states.

[b]Adamawa
Tinubu’s main opponent Atiku is from this state in the northeast. The ruling APC won this historically PDP state for the first time in 2015, but Atiku was in the APC at the time. Atiku should continue his home winning streak next month.

Akwa Ibom
[/b]A Tinubu win in Akwa Ibom will be a miracle. Getting 25% or more of the votes should be enough success for the ruling party candidate.

[b]Edo
The margin here in the 2019 election was barely 2% points. Next month’s election in the state will again be closely contested, and the PDP has the upper hand given it’s presently in charge of the state.

Bayelsa
Tinubu will hope that former (and current) PDP figures in this state, such as oil minister and ex-Bayelsa state governor Timipre Sylva, can get him a decent tally there. But no one should anticipate a Tinubu victory.

Abia
The Abia state governor is one of five PDP state governors who are rumored to be discussing a deal with Tinubu to sabotage their own party. Note: it’s not really ‘sabotage’ in the eyes of Nigerian politicians, who freely switch parties when it personally benefits them.

President Buhari would barely win a few thousand votes in Abia (or any other state in the southeast) in a fair election, but he managed to rally 26% of the votes in 2019 – just enough to get over the constitutional line – with the state governor’s tacit cooperation. Tinubu should expect this cooperation again this time. He knows he’s unpopular here, and so winning the state is not his priority.

Ebonyi
Ebonyi is another state where President Buhari somehow managed to get over the constitutional line in 2019 – with 25.26% of the votes. The PDP state governor who covertly organized this result has in fact since joined the ruling party. Tinubu will count on him to organize this simple result for him again, leaving Atiku and Obi to slug it out while he directs his own energy elsewhere.

Read also: 18 states where Atiku may lose this election (https://www.nairaland.com/7541627/18-states-where-atiku-may)


Adedayo Ademuwagun is a political risk consultant. Email adedayofrosh@gmail.com. LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/adedayoademuwagun/

Same thing said about Buhari...

Una go learn new things in a month..

CyynthiaKiss:
Many Of us Yorubas will once again prove to Nigerians that we value morals, competence and credibility...

Nigeria is a very sick country that needs urgent medical attention from a very qualified Doctor irrespective of tribe and religion ..PETER OBI IS THE ANSWER

Religion and tribalism is why we are where we are today....
Never again shall we allow politicians to use religion or tribalism to deceive us again for their own selfish interest , instead of them to preach about competence and capacity..


Never again !!




God bless Labor Party ..
YORUBA LAGBA!!!

Tsa!

You are IGBO..

Onye Oshi!

PrinceOfLagos:
https://punchng.com/afenifere-youths-groups-target-five-million-votes-for-obi/?amp

Na 50million..

Nkakwu!

PrinceOfLagos:
Who no know go know

God bless President Muhammadu Buhari on the New Naira redesign and BVAS technology, We are pleased.

You are still dreaming?

Hehehehehe.

PrinceOfLagos:
Who no know go know

God bless President Muhammadu Buhari on the New Naira redesign and BVAS technology, We are pleased.

You are still dreaming?

Hehehehehe

zomby:
IPOB is threatening and has already issued SIT-AT-HOME on election day..
I see nothing more senseless than this move..
It is completely ridiculous and unbelievable; I question if the igbos think at all.

Recent happenings have shown they don't....

Bonaventura:
This is a welcome development.

Meanwhile, Governor David Umahi of Ebonyi State completely abandoned agriculture and made people believe he focused on a facade infrastructural development.

The truth is that just like Buhari's Daura, Dave made his tiny town a haven and left the entire state in shambles.

The few multicoloured bridges and building he did are just for aesthetics. Most of them do not extend beyond 2km into the interior. They are done along where people transit to other states so that they can be seen.

Keep Lying..

Bonaventura:
This is a welcome development.

Meanwhile, Governor David Umahi of Ebonyi State completely abandoned agriculture and made people believe he focused on a facade infrastructural development.

The truth is that just like Buhari's Daura, Dave made his tiny town a haven and left the entire state in shambles.

The few multicoloured bridges and building he did are just for aesthetics. Most of them do not extend beyond 2km into the interior. They are done along where people transit to other states so that they can be seen.

Keep llying..

gozmok1:
Northners will vote for LP and PDP in presidential election mark my word.

Christians will not vote for APC.... look at what is happening in kaduna MUZLEM/MUZLEM REGIME

No student will vote for APC....our future in danger should APC govt continue in Power after what they did to Nigerians we will never forget...

Lekki MASSACRE 😭😭😭😭😭 Still fresh in our mind.

APC may win slightly in Southwest.

last presidential election APC was controlling the six states in south west but the results of the presidential election was too close to call, PDP even won Oyo and Ondo with seating APC governors. See data below:

Ekiti (APC 219,231, PDP 154,032)
Osun (APC 347,634, PDP 337,377)
Ogun (APC 281,762, PDP 194,655)
Oyo (APC 365,229, PDP 366,690)
Ondo (APC 241,769, PDP 275,901)
Lagos (APC 580,825, PDP 448,015)
Total (APC, 2,036,450, PDP 1,776,670).

The people that are making noise, thinking a certain party is administering the state, will give an edge. I just pity them. The performance of APC had not even helped them but they are convenient to make noise on state election matter. For years now, APGA had been winning Anambra Governorship election but at the Presidential level, PDP had been carrying the day.



No doubt, Tinubu will want to win big in south west, then throw around dollars and naira but I doubt he will get pass 55% of the votes with his money because people are angry because of hunger.

What a long EPISTLE OF GIBBERISH..

Adeleke has lost to OYETOLA in Osun tribunal..it will be announced tomorrow..

I stay in "The north"...

Labour Party has no presence in 314 local governments out of 774 in the whole nation..

Labour party has NO AGENTS IN OVER 98,000 Polling units as of today..don't take my word for it, contact INEC..

Southerners are greatly disenfranchised with PVC collection..

IPOB is threatening and has already issued SIT-AT-HOME on election day..

Labour Party don't have the funds to run a HOLISTICALLY beefed up Election..

I am igbo and will vote for Asiwaju!

Peter Obi has lost already..

SmartPolician:
She raised a salient point on structure in comparison with a movement. However, Nigeria has grown beyond that - thanks to BVAS and IRev technology.

Labour Party just needs reliable party agents at the polls to man their votes. If not, APC and PDP will just share them.

The Electoral law signed by Buhari was in place when APC still "bought" votes and won last year in Ekiti.... Labour Party faithfuls sold their consciences for pittance..

Adeleke in Osun has LOST to OYETOLA in the tribunal case..it will be announced tomorrow..

BVAS can NEVER help Obi..

Lets see how Igbos will even come out massively to vote when there is instruction to Sit-at-home that falls on Election day..

You think Igbos want to die because of Election?

Malory:
Atiku's largesse is still intoxicating this one. She is still excited by her massive cash out from the corrupt Cameroonian. By February when Obi will be declared winner she will come back to her sense.

Pls Obi can not win..

GROW UP!!!

shuttox:
He is not ahead...Stop finding excuses
Can someone pls remind Tinubu that his APC is the one currently in charge of our fuel, naira etc.

So do we now say Tinubu is on the same page with us the opposition that APC have failed woefully and should not be rewarded with another term....??

🤣🤣🤫🤣🤣🤣

Or his campaign is deliberately avoiding the last 7½ yrs while purely focusing on Nigeria 1999 - 2015 🤷🤷🤷🤷

How old are you

kk2027:
My pastor spoke loud and clear
A sick country cannot be handed to a sick president

Your Pastor is using your cranium to drink "Shandy"..

Repeat your Rubbish again........

Massiveglory:
Everything you put out , I multiply it in mutiplulous folds and put it inside your life. Nobody on earth will be able to help or cure you. Mark this day.

NOBODY on earth cures or even helps..

God ULTIMATELY does..

ALL IS OF GOD!

Mark your words?You are playing God?

Hahahaha..



You are just a Subtle LUNATIC KIDULT..

Eejit!

kk2027:
A sick country cannot be handed to a sick old candidate

My pastor is right

Your PASTORPRENEUR charlatan is USELESS..

LOCAL EEDIOT..

You run down a nation yet want it's "fruits" in your life?You want it's blessings bequeathed to you?

You want to rule a nation you curse on a daily

Come and make Peter Obi PRESIDENT..

We are here waiting....in 31 days your NATURAL GIVEN FATE will be presented to you as usual..hungry fuuul..

Look at a BASTERD like you that his father committed suicide due to your "sleeper" mum..

Your rant ends here on this platform..

Very soon now,you will ask for urgent 2k..

Hungry confused street brat .

Answer ..

Who was your peasant father?

Yaribanzaonic:
Peter OBI and Atiku Abubakar have mutual respect for each other. If you notice they don't even mudsling each other. These are men with their mental capacities intact ohhh!! Even kwankwaso has never deliberately insulted any of the contestants.

Atiku was even Godfather to BUHARIs son at his wedding and thiefnubuu wasn't even invited!! But useless Agbado, don't see the signs .they are just programmed to be fuulish.

Thiefnubuu, with his leaking brain, has been allover the place , abusing and cursing people, because it worked against Jonathan, he thinks it will work now...NEVER!!

All I want to say is this , any TOUT or Urchin, that goes to OJOTA to do Nonsense will be shot and his carcass will be thrown into the lagoon.

Thiefnubuu is SIN to decency....spits

USELESS LIAR!

Atiku WAS NEVER GODFATHER TO YUSUF BUHARI DURING HIS WEDDING..

And yes Tinubu was at the wedding,FULLY invited..

You don't even know how to lie.. kitikpa dorwakwa otu nne gi ebe ahu..

You are here abusing someone yet your late WRETCHED ILLITERATE PEASANT father was a "Never Do Well" miscreant..

Bastards that don't have anything to their name will just be spewing INANITIES..

Why won't PO and Atiku have "mutual" respect for each otherAre they still not PDP?You think the PDP blood doesn't run deep in both of them

Eediot like you that cannot feed himself will come here and be regurgitating rubbish that has no basis..

Bia ka PO wuru PRESIDENT ka anyi hu..

Obele EKWENSU!

Yaribanzaonic:
Peter OBI and Atiku Abubakar have mutual respect for each other. If you notice they don't even mudsling each other. These are men with their mental capacities intact ohhh!! Even kwankwaso has never deliberately insulted any of the contestants.

Atiku was even Godfather to BUHARIs son at his wedding and thiefnubuu wasn't even invited!! But useless Agbado, don't see the signs .they are just programmed to be fuulish.

Thiefnubuu, with his leaking brain, has been allover the place , abusing and cursing people, because it worked against Jonathan, he thinks it will work now...NEVER!!

All I want to say is this , any TOUT or Urchin, that goes to OJOTA to do Nonsense will be shot and his carcass will be thrown into the lagoon.

Thiefnubuu is SIN to decency....spits

USELESS LIAR!

Atiku WAS NEVER GODFATHER TO YUSUF BUHARI DURING HIS WEDDING..

You are here abusing someone yet your late WRETCHED ILLITERATE PEASANT father was a "Never Do Well" miscreant..

Bastards that don't have anything to their name will just be spewing INANITIES..

Why won't PO and Atiku have "mutual" respect for each otherAre they still not PDP?You think the PDP blood doesn't run deep in both of them

Eediot like you that cannot feed himself will come here and be regurgitating rubbish that has no basis..

Bia ka PO wuru PRESIDENT ka anyi hu..

Obele EKWENSU!

kk2027:
She said, “Asiwaju that I sat with for two hours, he slept most of the time, it was Bisi Akande that I was really talking to. Most importantly he is not only physically unfit, he is mentally unfit, whether we want it or not, this is the truth. It’s not that I hate him, I respect him because I have heard of one or two people that he assisted which is good.

“I sat with him for two hours in London, when you talk of green, he will give you an answer of red, he can’t even decipher, he has very serious dementia, I believe he has Alzheimer’s because he cannot even hold a cup of tea"

In a months time,she will get what is coming to her.

Greedy impatient professional decampee like her..

Massiveglory:
Emilokan and his team should quit the ramblings. The pains they have inflicted on Nigerians in past 7years is undescribable.

Emilokan should save face by quickly collapsing all his structures into the structureless PODATTI presidency.

Pmb support him or not, there is no way Nigerians will have another "Paul biya" as president. We have suffered enough as a nation.

PODATTI is the ONLY realistic ticket to change the status quo in our nation.

Emilokan and AA know this and they both will be sent to irapaji, bourdillion, adamawa or dubia, which ever they choose.

You are one hopeless eediot..

A young empty brainless fuuul..

In 31 days,you will learn new things..

There are millions like you roaming the earth..

VACOUS Endsardist juvenile..

E no far.

Generational "Never do well" street brat..

Kitikpa dorwakwa otu nne gi ebe ahu..

Klington:
Urchins oya come and cry

"Non-Urchins come and win..

Selima:
Obi is more than capable, he has proven it in all ramifications

Like in Anambra..

Dey play......

Reelmii:
Confusion.....tinubu feels that its because if him the naira was redesigned.....well both of them will be alright....i was not there wen they started their beef.....i won't be there wen they settle so make i face front ☹️

.what a mind reader you are .

unclejb2:
Tinubu will loose this election disgracefully.

Atiku and Kwankwaso, even Buhari are all working for Obi.

No Northern bloc vote in this election,
No incidence forms
No ballot box snatching
No vote buying

these are guaranteed facts.


Obi is the next president of Nigeria.

QED

You are a pained NONCOGNITIVE. NUMBSKULL!

You go quiet next year..

derecho:
Kikikiki... Coming to ?

Guy park.for one side.
Oletola is a forgotten issue in Osun.

You are a young fuul..

Next tomorrow I will PROVE it..

UNINFORMED NEOPHYTE!

PrinceOfLagos:
yet his cousin governor of Osun state got booted out from office like a thief

Tinubu tried ko, Tinubu cried ni

Campaign crowd don't win election

Let's bet 250k that by next tomorrow, OYETOLA WILL WIN HIS COURT CASE AND BE REINSTATED AS GOVERNOR OF OSUN..

Juveniles like you won't get it..

derecho:
Kikikiki... Exercise In futility

Tinubu that was rejected In Osun wants to win in Ogun where he insulted Dapo Abiodun and Osinbajo?

Empty brainless brat..

By next tomorrow,you will eat your words..

derecho:
Kikikiki... Exercise In futility

Tinubu that was rejected In Osun wants to win in Ogun where he insulted Dapo Abiodun and Osinbajo?

Your brain is moribund and you are very UNINFORMED..

OYETOLA IS COMING!

Let's see you wail.on Friday...