Don't mind that f**l

Spiff20:
So you mean he will win in all South South and South East states?

Svoboda:
Fair analysis. Apc is just too much in control in Nigeria to lose in 2023. Likewise, thanks to Peter Obi for significantly splitting opposition. A divided opposition has never won a united ruling party. This is the tactics notorious with the Zanu pf under the long years of Mugabe, the anc of South africa and museveni.

Only îdîotic, stûpîd, sénslèss and îdîotic són of a whörè, will vote APC government of sûffering for anothèr eight years

This is one of the most stupid analysis i have ever read. The writer is discounting the fact that buhari is no more on the ballot. What i believe is that the north will rather have a fellow northerner who is moslem as president than have a southerner who is moslem as president. Simple and short

You did not mention Rivers,Anambra,Edo,Imo

It’s obvious who concocted this list
So it’s a useless list

So to you, an average northern Muslim will vote for Tinubu ( a fake Muslim who cannot recite the first chapter of the Koran) instead of Atiku their bona fide son. Mind you, Mr risk analyst, Atiku will win Kaduna, Jigawa, Kebbi, Zamfara, Niger and Kogi. Let's bet it $5,000 .

..





COMPILE A SIMILAR LIST FOR PETER-OBI...
Let us dissect it



.

igbosarejews:

Only îdîotic, stûpîd, sénslèss and îdîotic són of a whörè, will vote APC government of sûffering for anothèr eight years

You personify all the invectives you have spilled above when you dont understand what democracy means.

Hiss

We are expecting the states Obi will lose

ImmaculateJOE:
Atiku cannot win the following state.

Abia
Anambra
Ebonyi
Enugu
Imo
Cross River
Edo
Rivers
Plateau
Benue
FCT.. They belong to Peter Obi... I do care about the list above..

please include delta on this list 🙏

This guy's analysis is all about APC and PDP. Tell us about LP

Permutations

NigerianAngelo:
Funny post.

You didn't include ANY SE state.


You must be a yoruba urchin. They won't hear a word of salvation till results are out.✖️


Atiku isn't sure of a SINGLE state as of today - and is sure of losing at least 26 (FCT included) so far.



And someone sent this to front page? Ok.

Compose your list or stop ranting

ImmaculateJOE:
Atiku cannot win the following state.

Abia
Anambra
Ebonyi
Enugu
Imo
Cross River
Edo
Rivers
Plateau
Benue
FCT.. They belong to Peter Obi... I do care about the list above..

You are so DOCILE upstairs..

ImmaculateJOE:
Atiku cannot win the following state.

Abia
Anambra
Ebonyi
Enugu
Imo
Cross River
Edo
Rivers
Plateau
Benue
FCT.. They belong to Peter Obi... I do care about the list above..

You are so DOCILE upstairs.

This analysis is so funny.. have you been to the north to do your sampling?
Many analysis might faill in 2023 election..

Atiku: the north won't trade president for mere vice president. Atiku will surely inherit Buhari votes in the north.out of 19 state. He will 14-15 state convincingly. He just gather 25% votes from the remaining state.
He will be come second behind Obi in the SE and SS

Tinubu: will get major votes from the SW, SE and SS is a no go area for him.. and he will hardly get block votes from the north. But will become second after Atiku.

OBI: will get is block votes from the SE and SS while Atiku will be second behind Obi. In the north will become distance third behind Atiku and Tinubu.

NigerianAngelo:
Funny post.

You didn't include ANY SE state.


You must be a yoruba urchin. They won't hear a word of salvation till results are out.✖️


Atiku isn't sure of a SINGLE state as of today - and is sure of losing at least 26 (FCT included) so far.


And someone sent this to front page? Ok.

Lol.
Wicked

Obi will get a paltry 5 States in the East. Anything outside SE na jara forget all these online noise. LP will slice of PDP votes in the SE/SS. Get crumbs in Lagos lobatan.

Belleful:
This guy's analysis is all about APC and PDP. Tell us about LP

LP is PDP. PDP is LP. Two of a kind.

aninibinladen:
This made front page?

I mean a similar thread (https://www.nairaland.com/7541614/19-states-where-tinubu-may) was created about 19 States where Tinubu may lose but that didn't make front page but as soon as the one for Atiku is out it jumps to FP?

This is just a confirmation that the whole APC/Tinubu euphoria is built and strives on lies and Nairaland seems to propel it (maybe money is playing a factor here on the MODs), little wonder why Nairaland seems to be acting like an arm of TVC/Nation newspaper.

Maybe u were sleeping that time, please check again

adedayofrosh:
18 states where Atiku may lose this election


Atiku Abubakar began running for president 30 years ago and hasn’t stopped since. This time, he’s managed to persuade most of his party’s top people that he should again be backed for the job – even though he’s a northern Muslim and another northern Muslim has just ruled the country for eight years. The former vice president’s chances of winning the election are ironically better than they were the last time because his archrival Buhari is now off the ballot. Still, this 2023 election should be competitive. These are the 18 states where he may lose.

Borno
The APC easily won this northeastern state during the 2019 presidential election. Voters live in relative peace even though the Boko Haram crisis persists, and many attribute this improvement to the APC government. Atiku will need something extraordinary to win in the home state of the ruling party’s vice-presidential candidate.

Ekiti
The PDP’s loss in last year’s gubernatorial election in this state indicates that it cannot beat the APC here next month. The APC comfortably won the presidential election here in 2019. This time, the PDP’s own top leader in the state even backs the ruling party.

Ogun
Like Ekiti, Ogun is a state in the southwest controlled by the APC and the ruling party solidly won here last time. It used to be easy territory for the PDP, but the equation has changed since the APC was formed in 2013.

Zamfara
This one is easy territory for the ruling party. It is a core Muslim state in the northwest where President Buhari is king. Tinubu will be able to ride on that to a large win.

Katsina
There are rumblings on the ground because civil servants in the state have been going without pay, but it won’t matter a lot. This is Buhari’s home state and Atiku virtually has no chance of winning there.

Oyo
The PDP’s Atiku barely won this southwestern state in 2019. It could have gone either way – the margin was less than a 1% point. Now, the state governor is one of five PDP state governors who have been threatening to work against their own party’s candidate. This division may be costly for Atiku.

Kaduna
It’s going to be pretty straightforward here. The largely Muslim north of the state will outvote the mainly Christian south of the state in favor of the ruling party. Atiku only managed 39% of the votes here in the last election.

Bauchi
Atiku’s PDP somehow won the state gubernatorial election in 2019. This was a week after he’d been resoundingly beaten in the same state during the presidential election. Atiku will probably lose there again this 2023, but his archrival Buhari won’t be on the ballot and so he should be able to compete more closely.

Nasarawa
The last two presidential elections were very close in Nasarawa. However, the ruling party won this state in the central north both times and presently controls the state. The trend may continue next month.

Lagos
The APC’s Tinubu rules Lagos with a strong fist. He was the state governor from 1999 to 2007 and has handpicked successive governors ever since. But the 2019 presidential election suggests he’s no longer as powerful as he thinks. He struggled to deliver a large win for Buhari, who expected to get more than the 53% that he got considering Tinubu’s weight. Even so, there’s little doubt that Tinubu will win in Lagos. Further, Peter Obi of the LP should earn a decent share of the opposition support with some slice into Atiku’s 2019 votes.

Kwara
The PDP always won this state in the central north until the APC opposition coalition was formed. The PDP has since lost two consecutive presidential elections there. As in Kaduna, the electorate is split along religious lines and the ruling APC will probably win the majority Muslim votes.

Kogi
Kogi is a swing state, but the ruling party slightly has the upper hand because it’s in charge here. The party got 55% of votes in this state in the central north last time. A more competitive contest should be expected next month.

Yobe
Atiku scraped out a mere 9% of the votes in Yobe last time. Note that this state is in his home region: the northeast. But the majority ethnic group in Yobe is Kanuri – the same as the APC’s current vice-presidential candidate. The ruling party will easily win the state.

Jigawa
Jigawa is staunchly for the APC and Buhari. Every single member of the state parliament is from the ruling party. Atiku’s best aim here will probably be to squeeze out 25% of the votes – keeping in mind the constitutional requirement that a winning candidate must get 25% of votes in at least two-thirds of states nationwide and the capital Abuja.

Kebbi
Voters in Kebbi are mostly civil servants, farmers or herders – all largely reliant on the government and the ruling party. Buhari is the ethnic and religious leader of the remote northwestern state. Atiku will look elsewhere for victories.

Kano
A lot of people in Kano believe the PDP was robbed when the ruling party violently forced a rerun of the gubernatorial election in 2019. The APC state governor is despised and the ruling party unpopular, but this state at the heart of the northwest is too important for the party to lose. It’s the most populous state in the country and produced the largest number of votes by any state in the 2019 presidential election. The party will try to win here by all means.

Niger
The count in this northern state was 72% for the ruling party last time – mainly because Buhari was on the ballot. This contest should be more competitive this 2023, but Atiku will still be prepared for a loss.

Gombe
The APC holds around 85% of seats in the state parliament. It was an easy win for the ruling party in the 2019 presidential election. This northeastern state should go to the party again next time.

Read also: 19 states where Tinubu may lose the 2023 presidential election (https://www.nairaland.com/7541614/19-states-where-tinubu-may)


Adedayo Ademuwagun is a political risk consultant. Email adedayofrosh@gmail.com. LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/adedayoademuwagun/

Lagos State is the most populous state in the country, not Kano State.

Tinubu maintained a lead in Lagos state elections in the past through denial of voter registration to non indigenes of southwest region. The table may turn against Tinubu this time as INEC encouraged voters to register this time.
In the past presidential elections, Lagos state of over 20 million people hardly produced 3 million votes, no thanks to Tinubu's machinations in denial of voter registration to a huge population of voters in the state.

You did not add Delta state. Atiku will lose in that state. Lets wait and see

Hi Adebayo, can we connect? Thank you.

bhella10:
Compose your list or stop ranting

Post is updated.

May be you are suffering from the same brain dead like Tinubu. Atiku is winning the whole northern states.

aninibinladen:
This made front page?

I mean a similar thread (https://www.nairaland.com/7541614/19-states-where-tinubu-may) was created about 19 States where Tinubu may lose but that didn't make front page but as soon as the one for Atiku is out it jumps to FP?

This is just a confirmation that the whole APC/Tinubu euphoria is built and strives on lies and Nairaland seems to propel it (maybe money is playing a factor here on the MODs), little wonder why Nairaland seems to be acting like an arm of TVC/Nation newspaper.

What do you think, when NAIRALAND headquarters is in Lagos.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LfvbOdNZyE0

It will shock you to see that Atiku win in all northern state and part of the south to emerge victorious

And you think Atiku will win South South and South East ?Obi really dealt with Atiku chances in his long time ambition since 1999Everyone wants Obi now And you think Atiku will win South South and South East ?Obi really dealt with Atiku chances in his long time ambition since 1999Everyone wants Obi now ...

Wrong analysis....it doesn't hold water.