adedayofrosh:
18 states where Atiku may lose this election


Atiku Abubakar began running for president 30 years ago and hasn’t stopped since. This time, he’s managed to persuade most of his party’s top people that he should again be backed for the job – even though he’s a northern Muslim and another northern Muslim has just ruled the country for eight years. The former vice president’s chances of winning the election are ironically better than they were the last time because his archrival Buhari is now off the ballot. Still, this 2023 election should be competitive. These are the 18 states where he may lose.

Borno
The APC easily won this northeastern state during the 2019 presidential election. Voters live in relative peace even though the Boko Haram crisis persists, and many attribute this improvement to the APC government. Atiku will need something extraordinary to win in the home state of the ruling party’s vice-presidential candidate.

Ekiti
The PDP’s loss in last year’s gubernatorial election in this state indicates that it cannot beat the APC here next month. The APC comfortably won the presidential election here in 2019. This time, the PDP’s own top leader in the state even backs the ruling party.

Ogun
Like Ekiti, Ogun is a state in the southwest controlled by the APC and the ruling party solidly won here last time. It used to be easy territory for the PDP, but the equation has changed since the APC was formed in 2013.

Zamfara
This one is easy territory for the ruling party. It is a core Muslim state in the northwest where President Buhari is king. Tinubu will be able to ride on that to a large win.

Katsina
There are rumblings on the ground because civil servants in the state have been going without pay, but it won’t matter a lot. This is Buhari’s home state and Atiku virtually has no chance of winning there.

Oyo
The PDP’s Atiku barely won this southwestern state in 2019. It could have gone either way – the margin was less than a 1% point. Now, the state governor is one of five PDP state governors who have been threatening to work against their own party’s candidate. This division may be costly for Atiku.

Kaduna
It’s going to be pretty straightforward here. The largely Muslim north of the state will outvote the mainly Christian south of the state in favor of the ruling party. Atiku only managed 39% of the votes here in the last election.

Bauchi
Atiku’s PDP somehow won the state gubernatorial election in 2019. This was a week after he’d been resoundingly beaten in the same state during the presidential election. Atiku will probably lose there again this 2023, but his archrival Buhari won’t be on the ballot and so he should be able to compete more closely.

Nasarawa
The last two presidential elections were very close in Nasarawa. However, the ruling party won this state in the central north both times and presently controls the state. The trend may continue next month.

Lagos
The APC’s Tinubu rules Lagos with a strong fist. He was the state governor from 1999 to 2007 and has handpicked successive governors ever since. But the 2019 presidential election suggests he’s no longer as powerful as he thinks. He struggled to deliver a large win for Buhari, who expected to get more than the 53% that he got considering Tinubu’s weight. Even so, there’s little doubt that Tinubu will win in Lagos. Further, Peter Obi of the LP should earn a decent share of the opposition support with some slice into Atiku’s 2019 votes.

Kwara
The PDP always won this state in the central north until the APC opposition coalition was formed. The PDP has since lost two consecutive presidential elections there. As in Kaduna, the electorate is split along religious lines and the ruling APC will probably win the majority Muslim votes.

Kogi
Kogi is a swing state, but the ruling party slightly has the upper hand because it’s in charge here. The party got 55% of votes in this state in the central north last time. A more competitive contest should be expected next month.

Yobe
Atiku scraped out a mere 9% of the votes in Yobe last time. Note that this state is in his home region: the northeast. But the majority ethnic group in Yobe is Kanuri – the same as the APC’s current vice-presidential candidate. The ruling party will easily win the state.

Jigawa
Jigawa is staunchly for the APC and Buhari. Every single member of the state parliament is from the ruling party. Atiku’s best aim here will probably be to squeeze out 25% of the votes – keeping in mind the constitutional requirement that a winning candidate must get 25% of votes in at least two-thirds of states nationwide and the capital Abuja.

Kebbi
Voters in Kebbi are mostly civil servants, farmers or herders – all largely reliant on the government and the ruling party. Buhari is the ethnic and religious leader of the remote northwestern state. Atiku will look elsewhere for victories.

Kano
A lot of people in Kano believe the PDP was robbed when the ruling party violently forced a rerun of the gubernatorial election in 2019. The APC state governor is despised and the ruling party unpopular, but this state at the heart of the northwest is too important for the party to lose. It’s the most populous state in the country and produced the largest number of votes by any state in the 2019 presidential election. The party will try to win here by all means.

Niger
The count in this northern state was 72% for the ruling party last time – mainly because Buhari was on the ballot. This contest should be more competitive this 2023, but Atiku will still be prepared for a loss.

Gombe
The APC holds around 85% of seats in the state parliament. It was an easy win for the ruling party in the 2019 presidential election. This northeastern state should go to the party again next time.

Read also: 19 states where Tinubu may lose the 2023 presidential election (https://www.nairaland.com/7541614/19-states-where-tinubu-may)


Adedayo Ademuwagun is a political risk consultant. Email adedayofrosh@gmail.com. LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/adedayoademuwagun/

EdoBoy90:
We have saved your posts. You didn't include Buhari's hardship, 133 poor Nigerians, fuel crisis, 20m out-of-school Children, unemployment rate of over 33%, lowest economic parity among Nigerians, insecurity and economic crisis we are facing currently. A very biased post away from reality.

Useless post away from reality.

February 25 is not too far again.

Nothing will save APC sincerely.