₦airaland Forum

mendes911:
There's always a good entry price for every stock. That's what am looking for. Such stocks attracts the interest of[b] foreign investors[/b] and they usually move at the speed of light but entry is key.

This fixation on foreign investors... Whether you or I like it or not, the performance of the NSE is driven by domestic RETAIL investors. This is a fact and not feelings.

Kpress:
the truth is even inec and APC knows PDP won the election, just because there was so desperate to dis grace fayose,there conive with inec and security agent to rig the election, one thing I know for sure,tribunal will always judge in favour of APC,but supreme court,will always give the right judgement according to the evidence provided by PDP,,I believe in supreme court judgement alone

Court of Appeal is finAL arbiter for election matters. Knowledge is power.

kolaish:
That is a good investment decision I would have taken if I were in your shoes; Those bids could be traps, but to be on the safer side, one needs to reduce his exposure, because if it turns out to be a trap, to come out will be very difficult until it reaches its destination.

Many people on this board lack patience. Of course this is good business for the brokers who will happily take your trades every day if you wish.

Let me kindy remind all of you that Diamond Bank (dishonest mgt) has more gross earnings than Stanbic that is a Holding Company... Diamond was already close to its bottom point before the shock result came out. It frankly does not have a lot more room on the downside hence, the surprise upturn. Lastly stock prices are all about the near term future and not the past. Wapco is trading at N40 with a loss... Diamond had a loss in FY 2011 and was trading around N7 then. Go figure.

Cheers

gamaliel9:
NAHCO?

NO! I was speaking in general terms actually. On a personal note, I do not offer stock recommendations publicly. I cannot take my approach to investingand dump it on others and I also do not want to be serenaded when things go well or derided when things do not go well.

I talk about companies from time to time (quite infrequently to be honest) and discuss something about their operations and activities that can help people make up their own minds as to the way forward.

Best wishes!

RabbiDoracle:
Value investing.

We do it here. Ask Onegentleguy.

You can be a growth investor and still be an investor. It is about knowing why you entered, having the conviction to remain in until the stock gets to your bus stop (unless new negative significant information you were not aware of has been brought to the marketplace) and knowing that minimum upside price you intend to exit from a fundamental perspective.

Agbalowomeri:
So what if all your analysis was based on falsified figures?

Oga I have long declassified myself; I am not interested in trading or investing. My interest is to make money

Who said you cannot make money by being an investor? In regards to falsified figures, until Nigerians stop worshiping individuals as their god, there will not be enough push back to change situations for the better on a permanent basis.

There is a lot left to do compared to the little achieved thus far. Best wishes.

rebekah2011:
The online trading platform has made almost everyone a trader. The era of waiting till year end to collect tasere dividend is long gone. My money must sweat everyday if possible. pa Emma, Oga Wanajo, Oga RabbidOracle and many others can choose to be long term. They have combined portfolio value in billions. The arbitrage in daily movement sometimes are too good to ignore.

My definition of INVESTOR has no reference to dividend stocks or seeking dividend. It is the ability to directly or indirectly (through the help of a proven professional) to invest in companies that are undeservedly (not based on emotion or likeness of the company's owner) trading below their fair value as referenced by near term performance expectations. Intermittent ups and downs in prices do not bother you as the value will reveal itself when it is ready. Your interest is to take a position and acquire the company's shares up to the demand you seek given that you have caught on early to the under the radar intrinsic value. Other market participants continue to look elsewhere until one day the stock takes off and people start scratching their head in bewilderment.

Cheers

dealslip:
Please if you don't know a person don't spread evil about them. This woman is one of the most intelligent women I have met. She is quick, aware and smart. It is unfortunate people just open their mouths and spew rubbish. If Nigeria doesn't give women like this a chance, they will be shooting themselves in the foot. Most of the people in CBN came from the Banking sector not just some people nominated randomly. Ashawo can get you to the level of SBE in banking after that only intelligence can push you further, banking isn't about only deposit you know it takes you to be quite versatile to handle certain transaction.

Be careful with your comments. I guess you are young... A female ED at Zenith will counter your premise in bold above. It is a case by case basis.

There are TOO MANY Traders on this board (knowingly and unknowingly) and NOT ENOUGH Investors. This hampers good discourse and encourages impatient investing. Hopefully, more investors will come to the fore and make their presence felt.

PharmAlfred:
Access Bank has Axed shareholders. Looks like it took more impairment in 2017 than 2016. Wigwe is probably doing fine boy and not adding real value to the bank.

They are only paying out 28% of their EPS. That's rather poor for a bank has no restriction on dividend payment.

The EPS you are referencing may not truly be what it is. So, behind the curtains they may actually be paying more of their actual EPS but prefer to have a better EPS than a better dividend yield and a worse EPS. The impairments have been going on for awhile and have been delayed and covered up. The shackles are gradually being loosened.

Banking results are all about optics in Nigeria. 'How best to arrange myself to look good even if I do not feel good inside.'

rebekah2011:
Access Bank shashe, 107b in forex income. Is our bank doing banking at all.

It is called "cooking the books"

robobo:
ok beta for them

to buttress what i am talking about above.

the decline of Access bank result for 2017FY was largely due to a loss of N33.63b from derivative instruments. a line of income that produced N53.32b profit for 2016FY, this speaks to the volatility of this line of income which is giving me concern as stated above.

This speaks to the DERIVATIVES deception of the bank that could not continue at the same pace. Numbers can be used to lie but will always expire as gaps and cracks start to widen as time goes along.

In general, if any commercial bank is no longer generating the core of its earnings from LENDING, you better beware. Take a close look as results are released.

Momoney54:
What’s happening with Fidelity oh. Anyone has any idea?

I discussed Fidelity earlier about its exuberant results that lacked a foundation. The company needed to offer a good result to the market to close its Eurobond Deal and was able to pull this off. I will leave it at that for now.

Jejebaba:
You are right boss. A friend in fidelity told me CBN asked his team to take 1B naira provision in the oil and gas accounts he was managing. Na this one make my liver cut ooo. The guy had to dispose most of his banking stocks to key into Tbills until clarity is seen.

NB: I am not asking anyone to sell or buy any banking stocks ooo, i just thought of sharing what i heard from him here.

I mentioned about Fidelity some weeks ago and poor provisioning. I know money is only made in Nigeria by rising prices, but, there is value in avoiding losses where possible if you are an INVESTOR. This information does not apply to TRADERS who typically execute by Reaction rather than Action.

Mpeace:
I remembered jumping out of zenith after result but before closure. Zenith I bought for 13 and sold 14.77. If only I waited. The stock started an irreversible move immediately after dividend payment. I will not make that mistake this year. If any stock I have presents its result, I will wait weeks before taking a decision to sell or stay.

Yes, it took off gradually a few weeks after dividend had been paid. PATIENCE is difficult in this market for any investor, MORE SO, when reason for entering is unclear or not based on an unemotional, firm foundation that has not been refuted or proven wrong.

onegentleguy:
To the part in bold;
My dear u do not have to pity anyone. ...for different players ploy the market with different strategies. ...and 'if one should feel that pity u refer to, then the market might as well cease to exist.
...just try and learn to 'dance to the tune of whatever music that the market presents, and u'll be fine !!
But more than anything else, develop a workable plan that gives u more and takes away less.

On ur last clause, I guess TIGER BRANDS simply did'nt do their homework well.
...for every investment terrain would often times have its peculiarities. ...it was simply a case of their failure to understand the business in play.
They leaped before looking and Alhaji simply did the opposite.

The issues are still there for Dangote Flour; people are just being deceived about the magical turnaround once he came back on board.

About not doing their homework, this is what people say in hindsight. The reality is the audited books of Dangote Flour presented to them were far from truthful and Tiger Brands did not know how to doubt audited books...

Mpeace:
Something tells me Zenith bank will have the best dividend yield this year.

It will not beat the 12% DY of last year in which people that jumped in came out net zero by ex-dividend date as the stock loss over that period pretty much tallied with the DY leading to a financial 'wash.'

They rewarded themselves with 25m shares worth close to 17b. They increased their salaries too. 2 years without dividend is an issue BOSS[B]

Bigger hype was given to AFREN trading on the main board of LSE with operations in Cote D' Ivoire, Nigeria etc. Where is AFREN now? Seplat is just riding on Nigerian investors' perpetual thirst for any company into oil business especially UPSTREAM.

This is what killed and is killing many bank's loan books. Keep getting sucked into giving loans to companies with businesses dependent on hard commodities and shunning soft commodities. The irony of life.

Seplat is a complicated company: the books, transparency, operations, ownership and liabilities.

Couple of things:

1. Do not confuse [/b]Stanbic Nominees with Stanbic IBTC. Stanbic is a popular custodian (warehouse for significant shareholding) in Nigeria and the name is Stanbic Nominnes. The Stanbic Nominee name (I disgree with this) is used as a front for the actual client Stanbic is being paid to warehouse the shares on their behalf.

2. The problem with mentioning stocks and wanted to be heralded and serenaded on this board to boost your ego, when things go as anticipated is as follows: The same people will not show-up when their recommendations go wrong. They vanish... If you want to wear the crown, also be willing to wash plates as and when due.

3. If you are making a recommendation and you [b]REFUSE to apply a TIME HORIZON to your recommendation, you are not only deceiving viewers of this board but, also yourself. Serious/sincere recommendations NEVER have open-ended or indeterminable horizons. If you want to stick out your NECK, stick it out VISIBLY or go and hide in peace.

4. The attraction to stocks that are massively diluting their shareholding base is worrisome. Unlike what many Nigerians may think it is a negative signal for a company to seek fresh equity from public investors. This is why the foreign owned companies only do this when their subsidiaries go into a funk e.g. Guinness, Unilever & WAPCO. The flirtation with UACN and Flour Mills (its best days are behind it) is the reverse of the negative signal their action is telling market investors.

5. Not every stock (deserved or not) will RISE in a BULL market and not every stock will DECLINE in a bear market. Do not be EXUBERANT; apply REASON. Patient investing typically will only hold when the proven investor has LOGICAL & COGENT reason for their stock pick.

6. Emotional and Momentum investing typically leads to PANIC at the earliest onset of a reversal in fortunes. If you do not know why you are in, you will not know why you should stay in.

Best wishes to all.

Investnow2017:
For a "sell" to happen there must be a "buyer". What makes you think the buyers are fools? And what makes you think that the sellers who had made more than 10-100% profit are fools? That is the market. I am yet to see a market where there are only buyers (BIDS) and no sellers (OFFERS). Enough of the noise. Now tell me why i will not load another 1m units of Fidelity if prayerfully the price lowers to N3.20 this week

What has changed in its fundamentals? My target has bn N1m dividend even if div is 25k which may be more

Your Fidelity has been omitting credit impairment from its books hence, the spike in profit. This was done to attract buyers for its Euro bond last year. Good luck to you.

onegentleguy:
...On the 1st highlight in bold, I sense someone who knows deep down that I have spoken only the clear truth. ...and who's given up for a lack of proof to back his initial insinuations.
However, on the 2nd highlight in bold, I'd like to say thank u my dear.
...I also wish u even more !!

Not here to flex muscles with you and neither am I seeking approval/respect from anyone on this board. Wish what you may. Once again, best wishes and have a nice weekend.

onegentleguy:
I find it quite strange that u always seem to find fault in FCMB and none at all in DIAMOND, FBN, STERLING etc.
...To u, everything FCMB 'is to say the least fraud'
I am not trying to compare the tier 2 banks, but it does seem that if there are things to worry about in FCMB, then there is even a few more things to be worried about in DIAMOND. ...at least based on their Q3 results.
Again it leaves much to be desired why u would always want to assume that FCMB is in dare need of cash more than DIAMOND when in fact it was the latter that had to dispose of a foreign arm to shore up their cap adequacy.
...FCMB as a matter of fact, did the opposite by spending hugely to strategically increase their stake in what is without a doubt one of best managed and most successful pfa in the country. ...i'll suggest u go thru the current Nos of legacy pension.
...and while ur at it, pls also take out a few moment to compare the Q3 Nos between FCMB and DIAMOND.
...for unless u refuse to be honest, FCMB as at Q3 is a better bargain than DIAMOND.
...need I also remind u that even on coperate governance, FCMB is far ahead. ...for am sure u probably don't remember the last time that DIAMOND paid investors some dividend.
...so I find it really funny when u claim that FCMB is been stage managed and merely following in the price foot step of DIAMOND. Even funnier is the fact that u don't seem to have back up proofs for any of these ur hefty claims.
Take it or leave it, the price of FCMB is ahead of DIAMOND for reasons that are at best genuine.

Note that I am not saying that FCMB may not come to the market to raise funds in future. ...they could, just like every other bank/firm. ...But it would mean been biased if we decide to use just that as our basis or yardstick for a conclusive judgement.

Disclosure: I hold both FCMB and DIAMOND, but I prefer to be a realist and like to see things as broad as it is wide.

I rest my case.

Good luck. I am not going to break it down further beyond what I have written. I did and do not advocate to buy or to sell any stock. I just talk about certain things in companies from time to time. Buy what you wish and sell what you wish. Best wishes

Parisfran:
These 3 have been running at the same pace for the past 6 months.

It's audited financial statement that will separate this their harmony.

Fbnh, Fcmb and Diamond.

FCMB is being managed for purposes of badly needed equity capital. The problem here is they have picked on Diamond Bank as their support price; I. E. Our price must be higher than Diamond bank no matter what.

A lot of money is being pumped to get the stock to at least N5 and hold. FCMB will be among the last banks to release 2017 result while it perfects its share price spike . Enough said.

If your stock was among the top five trades today for the whole market and declined in excess of 7.5%, you should be worried in the near term.

Coolcash1:
The powers that be have waded into the matter...JAT has leveraged on his uncle's (BAT) relationship with the emir.

Now the stock can begin the journey to N50....

Forensic audit is still in progress and needs to be completed and findings publicly released by the SEC unless Nigeria has become more opaque than I know it to be.

locodemy:
Do you think there is nothing positive about the rally in those tier two banks?
Well despite all our badmouthing,they are moving leaving some in tears.

The only below N5.00 and above N1.50 bank that DID NOT decline in price today is Diamond Bank. Think deeply about little signs... FCMB manipulators have targeted Diamond as their moving target hence, the similarity in prices.

I wrote something yesterday about FCMB, you blew it off as of no value. I do not control the market, but, I do sense things... FCMB was supposed to drop by 6% but the interested parties fought hard to reduce the decline by end of market.

I do not get an award either way; but, different stocks with LOGICAL basis will start moving away from those just riding the momentum wave courtesy of desperate and eager retail investors just throwing anything and everything at any stock in sight in their quest for quick profits. That journey of separation is now in play...

Have a nice weekend.

Kashif:
I thought I was the only one who saw that. There is something going on there! Look at volume!

Diamond overtaking FCMB

FCMB is being managed. They will need a fresh credit line to keep buying the stock next week. Despite all efforts today the stock still fell. Selling pressure was excessive. Expect this to continue.

As the buying frenzy continues, be wary of where you are investing your money. Most stocks are rising on momentum and not because of improved financial performances and near-term expectations.

The banking industry takes the brunt of bulls and bears so, I will focus on this industry. I will mention (briefly) three banks to be wary of when the tide turns and stocks start heading south as investors panic and seek for the exit trying to hold on to their unrealized gains.

1. FCMB: The bank's nine-month (September 2017) result is not on the Nigerian Stock Exchange's corporate disclosures page. Not surprising given the below...

Pre-tax income declined by 52% year-on-year and Gross Earnings declined by 16% year-on-year. To put this result further into perspective,

Pre-tax income was 7.57 Billion naira in April 2007 (12-month result) and ten years later now operating as a holding company, nine-month pre-tax income in September 2017 is 6.84 Billion naira despite interest income being approximately seven times larger in September 2017 compared to April 2007.

2. Skye Bank: No 2016 fiscal year result has been released while 2017 fiscal year results are about a month away form release every other bank. No news is not good news... Remember when Oando delayed its result for almost a year?

3. Stanbic IBTC: This is a holding company that incorporates the largest asset management company in Nigeria. Nonetheless, this bank's gross earnings and assets are less than that of Diamond Bank while trading 12.5X higher per share. Almost all of the free float is under the control of this asset management behemoth to dictate price movement as and when necessary. Interest expense and credit impairment continues to be understated giving a big artificial boost to profit.

I will leave it there. The market has gone crazy; do not rub shoulders with it. If a stock does not deserve to rise to the level it has, when it falls, it will take no prisoners on its reverse journey. It is better to gain less than to lose more.

Cadillac15:
I laugh at such fellows. Spent 8 months in DF. Once they sell, they panic everybody else into selling so that they can buy low. But they never got me.

FBNH will defy that rule cos we know what's cooking. It's a N25 stock. All we need now is the result.

Exuberance like this is what burned people in 2008 and 2009. Most stocks do not have a basis for their current prices. It is a buying frenzy. Once the market starts to retreat (latest end of this month) panic will set in because most people have no logical basis for why to remain in a particular stock based on warnings.

FBN will not make up to N1 (one naira) earnings per share. Don't let your exuberance get you burned. Once the result is out, everyone realizws the stock is now
Expensive and starts to sell and people get stuck. Best wishes

Random Musings an Stanbic IBTC, UBA, Zenith & Access Bank. Details available at: http://judefejokwu..com

Random Musings an Stanbic IBTC, UBA & Access Bank. Details available at: http://judefejokwu..com