₦airaland Forum

another report from forexfactory
euro is gapping down, now at 3035 at Oanda.

somebody posted this on forexfactory 1hr 15mins ago. I dont know if it is true
E/U @ 1.3027 as of now.

[b]

unclenna: [b]Hollande Defeats Sarkozy in Shift of Power to French Socialists...........How will the market react to this[/[/b]b]

hey!hey! if you are expecting the market to go up then wait for a big surprise.

Hollande Defeats Sarkozy in Shift of Power to French Socialists


Francois Hollande defeated French President Nicolas Sarkozy as voters handed control of the second-biggest European economy to the Socialists for the first time in 17 years.

The 57-year-old Hollande got about 52 percent against about 48 percent for Sarkozy, according to estimates by pollsters CSA and Harris Interactive. The campaign isn’t over; France elects its lower house of parliament in five weeks.
French Socialist Party Leader Francois Hollande

French Socialist Party leader and presidential candidate Francois Hollande, right, greets people as he leaves the polling station during the second round of presidential election in Tulle, southwestern France. Photographer: Fred Dufour/AFP/Getty Images
Enlarge image Francois Hollande Defeats Nicolas Sarkozy

A young supporter with a rose in her mouth waits with other supporters in front of the campaign headquarters of the Socialist Party in Paris. Photographer: Joel Saget/ AFP/Getty Images

The challenger inherits an economy that is barely growing, with jobless claims at their highest in 12 years and a rising debt load that makes France vulnerable to the financial crisis that has rocked the euro region the past two years. Sarkozy became the ninth euro leader to fall in that time and the first French president in 30 years to fail to win re-election.

“Hollande’s bet was that rejection of Nicolas Sarkozy was enough to get him elected,” Dominique Reynie, senior researcher at Paris’s Institute of Political Studies, said before the vote. “The message was that if you don’t like Sarkozy then I’m your best bet.”

Sarkozy’s departure may sharpen tensions with key allies as Hollande has advocated a more aggressive European Central Bank role in spurring growth -- a measure opposed by Germany -- and an accelerated withdrawal from Afghanistan.

While Socialists stand ready to dominate policy making for the first time since 1993 -- holding both the presidency and the Cabinet -- bond yields suggest Hollande may maintain market confidence. Ten-year French debt yields 124 basis points more than comparable German securities. That’s down from 145 basis points after he won the first round April 22 and lower than the 133 basis points at the start of the year.
‘Exaggerated’ Concern

Concern of a Franco-German cleavage undermining economic policy making in the euro region is “exaggerated,” Morgan Stanley chief economist Joachim Fels wrote in a note today.

An election in Greece today pointed to the potential landmines. Greek voters flocked to anti-bailout groups, the first exit poll showed, throwing doubt on whether the two main parties, New Democracy and Pasok, can form a coalition to implement spending cuts to ensure the flow of bailout funds.

At home, Hollande faces the task of increasing competitiveness, cutting the budget deficit and spurring growth while keeping the region’s financial woes at bay. Campaigning against the most unpopular president ever in post-war France, he avoided specifics.

“We expect resistance to change and proposals to preserve France’s social model to prevail once Parliament reconvenes after June 26,” Natacha Valla, a Paris-based economist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., wrote on May 4.

Hollande sought to portray himself as the anti-Sarkozy leader, calling himself “normal” to contrast with the incumbent known in the media as “President bling-bling.”
Following Mitterrand

A lawmaker from the central and rural Correze district, Hollande is the second Socialist president of the Fifth Republic, established in 1958. Francois Mitterrand was first.

His path to power followed a traditional French route. He graduated from the Institute for Political Sciences in Paris and the National School of Administration, schools that trained all post-war presidents, except Sarkozy and Charles de Gaulle.

He was educated at HEC-Paris, a business school where he befriended some who were to become corporate leaders, such as Axa SA (CS) Chief Executive Officer Henri de Castries. His social circle includes Jean-Bernard Levy, CEO of Vivendi SA, and Jean- Louis Beffa, former CEO of Cie. de Saint-Gobain.

In the early 1980s, Hollande went to work for Mitterrand, helping him nationalize companies. A decade later, he helped Prime Minister Lionel Jospin sell them to help the Socialist government cut its debts to join the euro.

“The pressure to clarify the position after a change in government will be high and it will be immediate,” said Steven Major, head of fixed-income research at HSBC Holdings Plc in London. Investors are “looking through the election and reasoning that the government will fall into line.”
Higher Taxes

Hollande has proposed higher taxes for big companies and cuts for small and medium-sized businesses; a 75 percent levy on incomes above 1 million euros a year and special taxes on banks and oil companies.

His platform would raise spending by 20 billion euros ($26.3 billion) over his five-year term and the retirement age for those who started working at 18 years old pushed back to 60 from 62. He said he would discuss with France’s banks the split of their retail and investment activities.

Tax increases and eliminating loopholes would seek to raise 29 billion euros. The budget plan aims to eliminate the deficit in 2017, one year later than under Sarkozy’s plan, with a 3 percent of gross domestic product deficit target for 2013.

For Europe, he has called for re-negotiating the German- inspired deficit rules that leaders agreed upon in December. At the same time, he reached out to France’s neighbor and biggest trade partner.
Contacts Made

A German government spokesman said that diplomatic contacts had been made with the Hollande camp. Pierre Moscovici, his campaign chief and a possible key member of the future government, told Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung newspaper on May 5 that the new government would not create a ’’crisis’’ with its main partner.

German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble indicated May 4 enough flexibility to allow Hollande to “save face.”

“I’ve said that everybody who gets freshly elected into office must be able to save face,” Schaeuble said. “So we will discuss this with Hollande in a very friendly way. But we won’t change our principles.”

A native of Rouen, the Norman city where Joan of Arc was burned at the stake by the English in the 15th century, Hollande has spent his career mainly behind the scenes and kept his position as party leaders even after two humiliating Socialist losses under his watch -- in 2002 and 2007.

In 2007, Segolene Royal, the mother of his four children, lost to Sarkozy. In the subsequent months, she announced their separation. Hollande now lives with Valerie Trierweiler, a journalist for Paris Match magazine.

WINNINGWAYZ: with the floor created in 79.82, USD/JPY should touch 80.50 by Monday. To avoid the large spread on Sunday night, you can Buy Now.

@Unclenna...Not so fast? You advice I should wait?

yes. EU and GU will still move south slightly.

I hereby officially close my office till next week, till then let the pip continue to be with us all IJN.

if my stochastic slow break the yellow resistance below 50.00 for GU it will be another crashing. When this happen I will tell the house. But GU will still fall more before it will finally go up. Be careful buyers is not yet over. Na my face be this I dey vex. I want more pips.

thanks be to GOD.

WINNINGWAYZ: very little to comment here, as its very obvious.

Low time frames will increase your blood pressure. Tonjoan made a comment earlier in the week which I was unconsciously doing. Trend starts from higher time frame. Spend several hours and killed the night researching. Now, am a better trader. these are the things I learn from this family. Not until you know why, when, where for a particular trade, you might not exactly be doing the right thing.
@unclenna, hope it went your way, as you were very determined. but that might not always be right ooo. Since you said you were risking 100 pips, fine. At least, you knew what you were risking.

@Odiero, some were following big brother, until few minutes to the release, you exited without prior notice to your followers. hmmm. advice them pls next time.
naijababes, you have carved a world for yourself. Am very happy.
I love this family. pls, keep the good works.

yes it is still in my way and counting.

unclenna: I have been following the south trend in GU since second and I have 53pips already. I expect GU to touch 1.6053 before going up.

more gu. 79 pips and counting

odiaero:
I make call base on scalping, and i dont make it for anyone to follow cos u wont even know when i scalp out and i trade both direction, but when ever i make a call, i always say follow at ur own risk, this means when i scalp out the market be it profit or little loss, am not oblige to tell u when u exit the market because i hv more than enough am paying attention to in my office.

But why am just seeing funny stuff on you post was that u keep insisting on buy buy buy even when it was clear it is sell, making me to conclude u must be on hold and hope stractegy

@odiaero and tonjoan pls let's leave this battle of who makes d correct calls most. Both of u r elders in this house. Let's show maturity and avoid 2 answer back.

I have been following the south trend in GU since second and I have 53pips already. I expect GU to touch 1.6053 before going up.

where the price is now for gu no buying.
check the chart below: anytime the stochastic is in that yellow region if it is selling it will continue to go down. check previous points the stochastic entered the yellow region in the chart below is always a "must go south" That is what is giving me courage to say that GU will crash and eu will join it.

FOREXMART: ok no problem. What time pls? @naijababe

bro i don hear ur story. My bro know is not d end of life.

News or no new, Nfp or not am selling gu and eu. I take responsibity of my actions in this biz. That's d only way i can make it in this biz.

tonjoan: This cant be said to be an against-the-trend trading. i said in my first post early in the day that we are sitting on strong supports on eu and gu and that sellers should watch it. I don't see why you should be cracked bro particularly when most of my calls are apt (no air of importance assumed). I know the several times you made calls that didn't quite go in your direction and no one mocked you for them. Learn to disagree in ways that challenge rather than in ways that seem mockery.

@tojoan, leave odiaero. Is his way...take every comment here as just plain talk if not u will nt enjoy this thread again.

tonjoan: This cant be said to be an against-the-trend trading. i said in my first post early in the day that we are sitting on strong supports on eu and gu and that sellers should watch it. I don't see why you should be cracked bro particularly when most of my calls are apt (no air of importance assumed). I know the several times you made calls that didn't quite go in your direction and no one mocked you for them. Learn to disagree in ways that challenge rather than in ways that seem mockery.

i think eu and gu bias for now is short becos gu is in d region of no going back. Am expecting 100pip more downward.

cold: Seriously,this is ridiculous & ludicrous.It paints God as lazy & idle.There are millions of malnourished kids dying out there,Christians/Muslims dying from constant terror attacks,Million others dying from natural & man made disasters & all God can think about is football?Vigorously smh

GOD can reveal anytin 2 His servant to make people believe Him. Jesus reveal everything D samaria woman at did and dt made d woman believe. GOD is not man so don't pity Him cos He can do infinity things within a trillion micro secs. that's y He is GOD.

unclenna: GU and EU will still fall more

am expecting eu to get to this range 1.3080 - 1.3016 and gu at least 1.6053 from now till moro.

WINNINGWAYZ: Good PM
Hope you had a good trading day?
I would like to comment on Retracement. This morning, I did wrote that I didnt enter the Eur/Usd trade that ran over a 100 pips. Some friends were calling, panicking that they have missed a glorious opportunity. I told them I would not enter but will make same profit. And I had to prove it. getting into a moving train can destabilize you. Be patient and wait. After a very fast move, it will retrace. watch your volume, as volume reduces, know that momentum is reducing. Watch out for hanging man, dojis, hammer formations to confirm and use CCI to check for hidden divergence. On confirmation, draw your fibonacci and consider 23% and 38 % retracement. Used it in Eur/Aud trade yesterday and Eur/Usd today, upon request from my friends. attached are both files relating to it.
Getting into an already moving train unsettles you. There are always pips to be made.
Happy pipping

how can you trade 5.0 lot size with account of 6,112. my bro that is not a good money management system.

GU and EU will still fall more

WINNINGWAYZ: Thank you very much. but before you treat EU as same, have you checked the correlation between both currency? I prefer using http://www.forexticket.co.uk/en/tools/01-01-correlation and treat pairs as mutually exclusive matters.

Thank you so much for your insights.

My call is long term....throughout this week.this week is short 4 me

Hit my sell button on GU. @