Realtruth2023:


Are you sure you are normal at all? Where is Peter Obi's involvement in all of this. What is Peter Obi's link with Naira depreciation? Is this election time, why the obsession with Peter Obi bikonu?

The thing tire me sef. Any little thing peter obi. So everyone that comes to criticize this govt is automatically a peter obi fan... The way some people think eeh...e tire pope sef for Rome. I pray Nigeria works.

grandstar:
The true value of the Naira sits between 1,300-1,400 based on present fundamentals. Anything stronger will harm the economy. It seems Tinubu is more perturbed about a loss of face over a dwindling Naira than accepting reality.

The nation needs to reinvent it. The dependence on crude oil sales for the bulk of the countryš forex is a scourge and needs to end.

The focus now should be an "export or perish" mantra. The desperate clinging to a strong Naira policy will adversely affect exports growth.

The government's goal should be to triple exports within 10 years, the majority being non-oil.

It can only achieve this by deregulating the price of petrol which will induce massive investment into the downstream sector of the economy which has for long suffered a dearth of investment due to the subsidizing of fuel.

Next, should be the deregulation of electricity prices. Let's Discos charge cost reflective tariffs, so huge investments will flood into power generation and distribution to ensure ample power supply for new factories and businesses popping up.

Next should be the lowering of companies tax to less than 20%. Low corporate taxes have positive transformative economic as they lead to a surge in investments, both foreign and local boosting economic growth to the heavens. It's what many Central European countries in the EU have long implemented and with superb results.

More reforms are needed but this should be a start.

The government is more interested in constructing a road at the cost of several billions of dollars instead of using that money to improve the power sector, which would lead to an attendant improvement in manufacturing.

Misplaced priorities, while their urchins cheer them on

Kukutenla:

How did you arrive at 1300 to 1400 figure?
What are the fundamentals?
You also seem to imply that raising cost of living and doing business will push us closer to an exporting nation. How will that work?
How does business thrive in an environment where purchasing power is abysmal and there's less incentive to save or invest

Did an export boom not commence when the Naira tumbled? Where there not trailer load of foodstuff and other items being exported to neighboring countries?

An investment boom with massive inflows of both foreign direct and portfolio investment would have followed suit which would boost economic output and capacity. It would create lots of jobs and begin to eat away at the legion of the unemployed and underemployed.

Nigeria's growth will mirror that of China. It's growth has large been fuelled by investment and exports, and not consumer spending. .

The truth is that an investment boom will eventually lead to stronger Naira as huge forex inflows boost the value the local currency.

femicyrus:

The destiny of this country is not tied to Obi.
The earlier you all wake from this into reality the better

But its tied to Tinubu you are a wicked soul your children will reap what you have sowed

My pain is that the price of fuel is still going up everyday.......... its now N700/litre from N670...whats the essence of the naira gain sef?

Hmmm.......

ogododo:



https://dailypost.ng/2024/04/22/again-naira-depreciates-by-n64-against-dollar-at-forex-market/

edungene7:
But its tied to Tinubu you are a wicked soul your children will reap what you have sowed

Tinubu worked for what he got! That is his destiny.

Obi felt only christians vote in the east will fetch him presidency.
I hope u now see him giving the money he made in the east to northern Muslims against 2027.

You don't just come online to insult and curse your children because of the political class. That is height of madness

I have just 1 vote, how did that imposed tinubu on you?

Lol. I already itemised all the problems in my thread earlier in the year.
https://www.nairaland.com/8017949/way-nigeria-people-govt-got

One of the problems I stated was the gross inconsistency and lack of transparency in this accursed APC gofment. You simply don't/can't know what to believe, when lies and propaganda na their oxygen🤣

When you are just so darn inconsistent and untrustworthy, what really can you achieve?

Even the refineries that are critical to achieving the naira stability, na so so lies upon lies full the matter. But they expect us to foolishly waste our dollars. Smh

femicyrus:

Tinubu worked for what he got! That is his destiny.

Obi felt only christians vote in the east will fetch him presidency.
I hope u now see him giving the money he made in the east to northern Muslims against 2027.

You don't just come online to insult and curse your children because of the political class. That is height of madness

I have just 1 vote, how did that imposed tinubu on you?

How did Tinubu work for it show me evidence of is work sharing and sponsoring Northern politicians with looted funds is the work right Tinubu that ran a Muslim Muslim ticket did not solicit for Muslim votes most of you are hypocrites, you should not be afraid of the curse if you have nothing hidden because your children will reap what is good the political class is everyones business

Kukutenla:

These are lies
Nnpc is remitting
Nnpc supplied Dangote
Nnpc did not sell crude in advance
Nnpc had 13 cargoes looking for buyers as at last week

Google it to find out yourself

grandstar:
The true value of the Naira sits between 1,300-1,400 based on present fundamentals. Anything stronger will harm the economy. It seems Tinubu is more perturbed about a loss of face over a dwindling Naira than accepting reality.

The nation needs to reinvent it. The dependence on crude oil sales for the bulk of the countryš forex is a scourge and needs to end.

The focus now should be an "export or perish" mantra. The desperate clinging to a strong Naira policy will adversely affect exports growth.

The government's goal should be to triple exports within 10 years, the majority being non-oil.

It can only achieve this by deregulating the price of petrol which will induce massive investment into the downstream sector of the economy which has for long suffered a dearth of investment due to the subsidizing of fuel.

Next, should be the deregulation of electricity prices. Let's Discos charge cost reflective tariffs, so huge investments will flood into power generation and distribution to ensure ample power supply for new factories and businesses popping up.

Next should be the lowering of companies tax to less than 20%. Low corporate taxes have positive transformative economic as they lead to a surge in investments, both foreign and local boosting economic growth to the heavens. It's what many Central European countries in the EU have long implemented and with superb results.

More reforms are needed but this should be a start.

lol.

One thing I sha appreciate you for is that unlike the zombies in here, you do admit when you come to realise you've been fooled, or when you realise you were wrong. This is why I still enjoy chatting with you.

We can support whomever we want but shouldn't be a blind zombie about it.

I can see you have also seen 'the float' for what it is. Remember, I said just like Buhari's float was dissected years later to get the truth, Thubv's own too will be dissected to show what is really what. I'm happy we didn't have to wait so long for you to see that the float again just as with Bubu, wasn't a float afterall.

NIGERIA GO AND FACE AGRICULTURE.


HEAVY MECHANISED AGRICULTURE similar to the ones being practised by Israel, Ukraine, South Africa, Kenya, Uganda , Botswana etc


And curb massive corruption in the political governance of Nigeria and the economy will improved.


Reduce the huge cost of governance that is draining the resources of Nigeria.

edungene7:
How did Tinubu work for it show me evidence of is work sharing and sponsoring Northern politicians with looted funds is the work right Tinubu that ran a Muslim Muslim ticket did not solicit for Muslim votes most of you are hypocrites, you should not be afraid of the curse if you have nothing hidden because your children will reap what is good the political class is everyones business

I can see that your children are already in Lagos as slaves in a state tinubu modernised and they mean nothing to you anymore until 2027 election with solidarity with labor party to capture Lagos in futility.
Continue lamenting your loss in the village while obi is busy distributing your commonwealth to the same northern Muslims in readiness for 2027.

femicyrus:

People like you are the reason many children go to bed without food in Nigeria.
Deregulate
Privatize
Remove subsidy
Export
Etc.
Which one have they not done?
See how much CBN invested in rice production for export, what is the result?
Privatize NEPA, what is the result?
Remove subsidy for petrol, what is the result?

When are you going to wake up from this wickedness towards the poor masses?

Let's answer one by one.

1. Why do you deregulate prices?

Are you a businessman or a service provided? Which goods or service would you like to provide? One in which gocernment compels you to provide below the price you can cover cost and make a profit or one where you can fix your own prices? I am sure you would choose one where you can fix your prices.

The ability to fix your owns prices is price deregulation.

Why do economists encourage price deregulation?

Let's take a look at GSM Mobile.

When HSM started in 2001, the government allowed the various providers to choose their prices. MTN and Econet (now Airtel) charged 50/minute while MTEL chose 22/minute.

MTN and Econet invested billions of dollars while MTEL disappeared. Deregulated pricing spurred them to invest. New players came in like GLO which introduced per second billing and they too invested billions. Today, there are over 100m lines in operation, from the 400 000 in Year 2000.

The biggest beneficiaries of deregulated pricing have been the poor. Even beggars now use phones.

Deregulated pricing encourages massive investment. Let companies charge their own prices and they will invest massively.

Look at the electricity sector. Government forced them to provide power at subsidized rates. What has been the outcome? Government is owing the Discos N1.3tr while it is owing the Gencos $1.3bn. Gas companies refuse to sell gas to the Gencos because of the debt they owe. What has been the outcome? Darkness.

A hotel is more likely to give you 24hours light because you pay enough to cover the running cost of their generator. It isn't rocket science.

If you are not ready to pay enough to cover their cost, don't expect light. Let them choose their own rates. This will incentive them more to provide you with power and invest in boosting capacity. They would also have enough money to pay the Gencos, and the Gencos would have enough money to pay the gas suppliers.

The poor suffer the most from poor power supply.
The rich and middle class can more readily afford generators than the poor and even service it. They spend less on their income on generators than the poor.

I will answer the rest later

grandstar:


Did an export boom not commence when the Naira tumbled? Where there not trailer load of foodstuff and other items being exported to neighboring countries?

An investment boom with massive inflows of both foreign direct and portfolio investment would have followed suit which would boost economic output and capacity. It would create lots of jobs and begin to eat away at the legion of the unemployed and underemployed.

Nigeria's growth will mirror that of China. It's growth has large been fuelled by investment and exports, and not consumer spending. .

The truth is that an investment boom will eventually lead to stronger Naira as huge forex inflows boost the value the local currency.

Export boom or smuggling. The smuggling has always existed. It just changed course in relation with who was holding the shorter end of the stick in terms of currency value and some people picked it up as "exports".
Are you aware Nigeria's export has exceeded imports since 2022 according to NBS?
You didn't attempt any of the posers just jumped to China. China did not remove subsidies to attract investment. As a matter of fact, China even increased subsidies.
There's no nexus between removal of subsidies and investment. It's just propaganda to make subsidy removal look like a solution whereas it's a problem. One of Nigeria economic fundamentals is subsidy. You may not like that but that's what it is and that's what events have shown.
While we were at how subsidy prevents investment, Dangote refinery was birthed and completed in the midst of subsidy. Same with like 5 modular refineries. Thus, there's no fact to back up the claim that subsidy removal drives investment.

In my view I guess the government need to step up their game, after banning binance all tools federal government put in place work which resort in naira appreciate, but currently another exchange called bybit is currently doing what binance was banned for and that is the reason why naira keep falling recently.
We are not patriotic enough

femicyrus:

Just go through what you wrote and listen to yourself.
You are happy seeing dollar going above #2000 because your principal came 3rd in a presidential election?
You wanted all Nigerians to suffer as a result?
Anything done to solve any problem in Nigeria, you will kick against it because Obi failed?

Nobody's happy seeing the dollars above #500 and this got nothing to do with Peter Obi. The government is destroying the country and that's what I'm opposing. Stop beating around the bush and face the point. They criticize past government then go back to do the same thing they criticized others for and a nuisance claiming to patriotic like you clap for them at the detriment of your future. That's how useless you're.

grandstar:


Let's answer one by one.

1. Why do you deregulate prices?

Are you a businessman or a service provided? Which goods or service would you like to provide? One in which gocernment compels you to provide below the price you can cover cost and make a profit or one where you can fix your own prices? I am sure you would choose one where you can fix your prices.

The ability to fix your owns prices is price deregulation.

Why do economists encourage price deregulation?

Let's take a look at GSM Mobile.

When HSM started in 2001, the government allowed the various providers to choose their prices. MTN and Econet (now Airtel) charged 50/minute while MTEL chose 22/minute.

MTN and Econet invested billions of dollars while MTEL disappeared. Deregulated pricing spurred them to invest. New players came in like GLO which introduced per second billing and they too invested billions. Today, there are over 100m lines in operation, from the 400 000 in Year 2000.

The biggest beneficiaries of deregulated pricing have been the poor. Even beggars now use phones.

Deregulated pricing encourages massive investment. Let companies charge their own prices and they will invest massively.

Look at the electricity sector. Government forced them to provide power at subsidized rates. What has been the outcome? Government is owing the Discos N1.3tr while it is owing the Gencos $1.3bn. Gas companies refuse to sell gas to the Gencos because of the debt they owe. What has been the outcome? Darkness.

A hotel is more likely to give you 24hours light because you pay enough to cover the running cost of their generator. It isn't rocket science.

If you are not ready to pay enough to cover their cost, don't expect light. Let them choose their own rates. This will incentive them more to provide you with power and invest in boosting capacity. They would also have enough money to pay the Gencos, and the Gencos would have enough money to pay the gas suppliers.

The poor suffer the most from poor power supply.
The rich and middle class can more readily afford generators than the poor and even service it. They spend less on their income on generators than the poor.

I will answer the rest later

I appreciate your details.
This is Nigeria with wicked people everywhere that needs regulation.
Ordinary market forces to determine exchange rates for 3 months we all saw the results until CBN has to intervene with regulations.
On electricity, the discos are ready to charge #1000/kilowatt for darkness without government regulation. They hoard meter and preferred estimated billings to milk the poor.

You saw the activities of ipman against dangote trying to compel him to sell petrol at #550 so that the masses can continue to suffer.
Can they do that to NNPCL and government refinery when they have refined oil?
Regulations exist for reason.
Nigeria is a good case study

Dollar rate is lower for a month now, yet imported goods remains expensive because of no regulations.

The reason for inflation was exchange rate and fuel. But now diesel is #1000 and dollar is no longer #1800 yet without regulations, we can all see that prices of goods remain high.

Daystar7:


Nobody's happy seeing the dollars above #500 and this got nothing to do with Peter Obi. The government is destroying the country and that's what I'm opposing. Stop beating around the bush and face the point. They criticize past government then go back to do the same thing they criticized others for and a nuisance claiming to patriotic like you clap for them at the detriment of your future. That's how useless you're.

I guess they could have done nothing and watch cartoon like buhari for 8 years for you to be satisfied.
You have a responsive government now yet you are not satisfied except obi is president.
Don't forget we are seeing beyond your curtain of deceit that you care about Nigeria.
If not IPOB, It has to be Obi?
Don't worry Obi will continue to lose like Atiku until you have sense
A dot in a circle thinking abusing everyone will fetch him presidency and Lagos

Steadily depreciating. Una doh

This naira drop or appriciate knw be news again for me..
E knw affect anything around me.
What's the need?

femicyrus:

I guess they could have done nothing and watch cartoon like buhari for 8 years for you to be satisfied.
You have a responsive government now yet you are not satisfied except obi is president.
Don't forget we are seeing beyond your curtain of deceit that you care about Nigeria.
If not IPOB, It has to be Obi?
Don't worry Obi will continue to lose like Atiku until you have sense
A dot in a circle thinking abusing everyone will fetch him presidency and Lagos

Responsive government? You mean throwing millions of household into poverty, hunger and starvation is responsive? You're a true foot soldier of agbado. Run the same propaganda and then turn to claim to be patriotic and whosoever does not agree to be fooled is Ipob or obedient. Lol. A zombified agbadorian. Continue clapping while your destiny is destroyed. A bigoted old illogical fool trying to gaslight me with nonsense. How do a reasonable human look at this government and call it responsive if not madness? Removing fuel subsidy, or floating the Naira then going back to pay subsidy through the back times two, or backing the same floated naira they criticized others for or removing electricity tariff at a time people are suffering from their failed policy with epileptic power supply or food shortage or insecurity? Where's the responsiveness u bastard! People are dying of health complications, healthcare is inadequate and expensive for no reason and you typing jargons capping shit. And don't try to separate this government from Buhari, they're one and the same. Useless fool, may God be responsive in ur life like Tinubu is to Nigerians that he threw into dimensional poverty with his responsive trial and error policies. Good for nothing piece of shit.

Daystar7:


Responsive government? You mean throwing millions of household into poverty, hunger and starvation is responsive? You're a true foot soldier of agbado. Run the same propaganda and then turn to claim to be patriotic and whosoever does not agree to be fooled is Ipob or obedient. Lol. A zombified agbadorian. Continue clapping while your destiny is destroyed. A bigoted old illogical fool trying to gaslight me with nonsense. How do a reasonable human look at this government and call it responsive if not madness? Removing fuel subsidy, or floating the Naira then going back to pay subsidy through the back times two, or backing the same floated naira they criticized others for or removing electricity tariff at a time people are suffering from their failed policy with epileptic power supply or food shortage or insecurity? Where's the responsiveness u bastard! People are dying of health complications, healthcare is inadequate and expensive for no reason and you typing jargons capping shit. And don't try to separate this government from Buhari, they're one and the same. Useless fool, may God be responsive in ur life like Tinubu is to Nigerians that he threw into dimensional poverty with his responsive trial and error policies. Good for nothing piece of shit.

You could have saved yourself this embarrassment by checking the dictionary meaning of responsive.
Go to school, "No
Na trade I wan learn for Lagos"
The same Lagos tinubu once governed

femicyrus:

You could have saved yourself this embarrassment by checking the dictionary meaning of responsive.
Go to school, "No
Na trade I wan learn for Lagos"
The same Lagos tinubu once governed

Lol, I'm more educated than anyone in ur bigoted family both present and future. Useless fool, beating around the bush. Responsive government una

Daystar7:


Lol, I'm more educated than anyone in ur bigoted family both present and future. Useless fool, beating around the bush. Responsive government una

I can feel your pain
But 3rd position can never become 1st from high court to supreme court as you can see from real educated people.
Insults won't fetch you presidency too.
But you can make millions from Reno's challenge on social media.
He want schools built by your principal during his 8 years as governor. Not a beer company.o.
The same alcohol is what is affecting many of you now.

grandstar:


Let's answer one by one.

1. Why do you deregulate prices?

Are you a businessman or a service provided? Which goods or service would you like to provide? One in which gocernment compels you to provide below the price you can cover cost and make a profit or one where you can fix your own prices? I am sure you would choose one where you can fix your prices.

The ability to fix your owns prices is price deregulation.

Why do economists encourage price deregulation?

Let's take a look at GSM Mobile.

When HSM started in 2001, the government allowed the various providers to choose their prices. MTN and Econet (now Airtel) charged 50/minute while MTEL chose 22/minute.

MTN and Econet invested billions of dollars while MTEL disappeared. Deregulated pricing spurred them to invest. New players came in like GLO which introduced per second billing and they too invested billions. Today, there are over 100m lines in operation, from the 400 000 in Year 2000.

The biggest beneficiaries of deregulated pricing have been the poor. Even beggars now use phones.

Deregulated pricing encourages massive investment. Let companies charge their own prices and they will invest massively.

Look at the electricity sector. Government forced them to provide power at subsidized rates. What has been the outcome? Government is owing the Discos N1.3tr while it is owing the Gencos $1.3bn. Gas companies refuse to sell gas to the Gencos because of the debt they owe. What has been the outcome? Darkness.

A hotel is more likely to give you 24hours light because you pay enough to cover the running cost of their generator. It isn't rocket science.

If you are not ready to pay enough to cover their cost, don't expect light. Let them choose their own rates. This will incentive them more to provide you with power and invest in boosting capacity. They would also have enough money to pay the Gencos, and the Gencos would have enough money to pay the gas suppliers.

The poor suffer the most from poor power supply.
The rich and middle class can more readily afford generators than the poor and even service it. They spend less on their income on generators than the poor.

I will answer the rest later

who is govt compelling to sell at low profit or loss?

Kukutenla:

Export boom or smuggling. The smuggling has always existed. It just changed course in relation with who was holding the shorter end of the stick in terms of currency value and some people picked it up as "exports".
Are you aware Nigeria's export has exceeded imports since 2022 according to NBS?
You didn't attempt any of the posers just jumped to China. China did not remove subsidies to attract investment. As a matter of fact, China even increased subsidies.
There's no nexus between removal of subsidies and investment. It's just propaganda to make subsidy removal look like a solution whereas it's a problem. One of Nigeria economic fundamentals is subsidy. You may not like that but that's what it is and that's what events have shown.
While we were at how subsidy prevents investment, Dangote refinery was birthed and completed in the midst of subsidy. Same with like 5 modular refineries. Thus, there's no fact to back up the claim that subsidy removal drives investment.

Thank you for pointing that out to him. Subsidy doesn't stop investment. As long as govt is willing to buy petrol before subsidizing same for the masses, dangote and other investors are happy to refine locally and sell to the govt at prevailing intl rates.
Grandstar is always replying to his own imaginations and that has always given him off, no matter what he comes here as.
It is like a caterer who says because a school owner is always buying snacks and reselling to student at cheaper rate to ease their hunger, that he or she won't open any outlet around or within that school premise. It is a matter of selling to generous school owner at prevailing market rates before the school owner sells to students.

CodeTemplar:
Thank you for pointing that out to him. Subsidy doesn't stop investment. As long as govt is willing to buy petrol before subsidizing same for the masses, dangote and other investors are happy to refine locally and sell to the govt at prevailing intl rates.
Grandstar is always replying to his own imaginations and that has always given him off, no matter what he comes here as.
It is like a caterer who says because a school owner is always buying snacks and reselling to student at cheaper rate to ease their hunger, that he or she won't open any outlet around or within that school premise. It is a matter of selling to generous school owner at prevailing market rates before the school owner sells to students.

LordAdam16:


Tinubu and co wanted a desperate win.
Otherwise the stars aligned perfectly for them to gradually lower the rate over the next 8 months to 1200 and possibly 1000 by mid next year.
But the clowns lacking foresight did their usual fire brigade nonsense and wasted the golden opportunity.

Liquidity was up. FPIs finally bit the bullet. Investment appetite was slowly returning. The vast majority of the major international houses backed a resurgence. The international development institutions greenlit the policies. And yet, somehow they royally f*cked up this gift.

This is on Cardoso! He claims to be independent but he let the politicians pressure him into an unforced error.
Would it really be so bad if the rate was currently 1400-1500 and our reserve was growing? And in the pipeline were the $2B WB loan, $6+ Eurobond, and 3 entire quarters of at least $2B per quarter in FPIs. If they'd simply kept it cool for the next two quarters, all of those FDI commitments would have started materializing by Q4.

In the interim, they'd have kept up with the SAP and tax reforms. These will boost the fundamentals (government revenue is up btw) and we'd have quite some time to properly orchestrate and put in motion a holistic program to boost exports massively.

But now the entire planet has caught them being naughty and they risk derailing whatever tiny progress they'd made in early Q1.
Investors skipping us for Egypt and liquidity in the official market falling back to last year levels. They better pray these bad numbers and perception are transient.

-Lord

If left to me:
1. I will adopt a slower approach to the whole naira defence thingy for a start.
2. Push for reduced imports buy increasing taxes and levies of some incoming goods. That should reduce the crazy for forex to import certain avoidable items.
3. Push for increased local production of top imports(food, fuel, gadgets).
4. Disarm the governors and reps in the interim by reducing what goes to them because a substantial percent of allocations in Naira is what finds its way back to the forex market and drives demand for forex so high and thus forex prices AKA exchange rates.

The swing is just to swift for what drove it to almost N1000 a dollar not to be natural defence.

LordAdam16:


Tinubu and co wanted a desperate win.
Otherwise the stars aligned perfectly for them to gradually lower the rate over the next 8 months to 1200 and possibly 1000 by mid next year.
But the clowns lacking foresight did their usual fire brigade nonsense and wasted the golden opportunity.

Liquidity was up. FPIs finally bit the bullet. Investment appetite was slowly returning. The vast majority of the major international houses backed a resurgence. The international development institutions greenlit the policies. And yet, somehow they royally f*cked up this gift.

This is on Cardoso! He claims to be independent but he let the politicians pressure him into an unforced error.
Would it really be so bad if the rate was currently 1400-1500 and our reserve was growing? And in the pipeline were the $2B WB loan, $6+ Eurobond, and 3 entire quarters of at least $2B per quarter in FPIs. If they'd simply kept it cool for the next two quarters, all of those FDI commitments would have started materializing by Q4.

In the interim, they'd have kept up with the SAP and tax reforms. These will boost the fundamentals (government revenue is up btw) and we'd have quite some time to properly orchestrate and put in motion a holistic program to boost exports massively.

But now the entire planet has caught them being naughty and they risk derailing whatever tiny progress they'd made in early Q1.
Investors skipping us for Egypt and liquidity in the official market falling back to last year levels. They better pray these bad numbers and perception are transient.

-Lord

you have said it all!

Kukutenla:

Export boom or smuggling. The smuggling has always existed. It just changed course in relation with who was holding the shorter end of the stick in terms of currency value and some people picked it up as "exports".
Are you aware Nigeria's export has exceeded imports since 2022 according to NBS?
You didn't attempt any of the posers just jumped to China. China did not remove subsidies to attract investment. As a matter of fact, China even increased subsidies.
There's no nexus between removal of subsidies and investment. It's just propaganda to make subsidy removal look like a solution whereas it's a problem. One of Nigeria economic fundamentals is subsidy. You may not like that but that's what it is and that's what events have shown.
While we were at how subsidy prevents investment, Dangote refinery was birthed and completed in the midst of subsidy. Same with like 5 modular refineries. Thus, there's no fact to back up the claim that subsidy removal drives investment.

Export or smuggling?

It doe not have to be officially recorded before its termed Export.

Now, the issue about subsidy removal.

The 5 modular refineries produce diesel. None produce petrol.

Dangote could afford to build his refinery because he could collateralize his highly profitable cement business.

Nevertheless, he has only focused on diesel and kerosene for now, despite the fact that the largest demanded refined oil is petrol. Why? He even fought that the PIB removed the subsidy. It's a business killer

Price deregulation is always the best. Let investors choose their prices. I can assure you that had fuel prices in Nigeria had been deregulated since the 1990s, Nigeria would be refining at least 2m bpd. With a deregulated price, what happened to the GSM sector would repeat itself in the oil refining sector.

The upstream sector of the Nigerian oil sector is well developed but the laggard has always been the downstream end.

When you talk of subsidies, if a country can afford, all well and good but not Nigeria where in 2022, debt servicing was over 100% of government revenue. So, where is the money to spend on subsidies? It will have to be borrowed. A lot of the present FG debt is due to petrol subsidies.

I don't understand why you mentioned China. Chinese refineries if I'm correct are largely or all state-owned. Secondly, Chinese government accounts are largely opaque. It's economy is also heavily in debt and it's long term decline has begun.

There's also a difference between consumer subsidies and investment subsidies. Government may decide to provide subsidized power to an industrial estate. The economic activity from that estate would more than make up for the subsidy.

Consumer subsidies are generally disliked by economists because they encourage over consumption and at the same time discourage private investors. Most economies that have these consumer subsidies usually have high budget deficits and impeded growth. In addition, their currencies usually suffer from turbulence every few years and face heavy devaluations. A good example is Egypt. Many non-oil rich like Jordan, Algeria should be among the list.

Costly fuel subsidies are negatively affecting the Iranian economy.

Saudi Arabia which also has lots of subsidies only maintains them so its people don't revolt as indulging citizens in the Gulf rich Arab states is the only way they can have legitimacy. It has serious problems balancing its books.

Consumer subsidies are very expensive to implement. There are better ways to help the poor such as Conditional Cash Transfer to impoverished mothers. These have had fantastic results in Brazil and Mexico. They are also much cheaper to fund. Another is low import duty on food.

This year, the government may spend about 6tr on the petrol subsidy despite denials it has gone.

If instead 10k was given to 10m househoulds, that would be 100bn a month. Multiply by 12 months and that's 1.2 tr. This is barely 20% of 6 tr.