Is the United State Of America, slipping into recession, with the tight credit crunch, increase in unemployment and cutting down on consumption. Then what will be the faith of economies tied directly to the US economies, because when the US economy sneezes[b][/b], about 80% of the global economies catches cold.

to be honest, its only a matter of time for the US economy to crash. from all indications doesnt look as though theres an nd in sight.  cross over to the other side of the pond, The asian economy is growing is like theres no tomorrow. African economy is also growing at an increasingly impressive stage.
only yesterday, i read diamond bank has been listed in the london stock exchange.
kenya is one of the few countries in the world and the only country in africa to transfer money via phone. , enough about africa

india have made there first car, guess how much, less than £2000. mind u india's economy is the fastest growing ecomony in the world.
china, japan and a hoost of other asian countires are now investing in nigeria, a very good time to consider going home if u live out side nigeria.

this only spells dooom for the american economy.   

by the way, houses prices are dropping in england but its the opposite in america.

Not only in America.
I think this is the time for us ( africans) to have revolutionary leaders. This is our time .
In UK have you noticed that immigrants are taking over the service sector of their economy. I guess they have over pampered their present generation that they will be a dissapointment in the nex 2 or 3 decades.

The Education that is helping them is what million of africans have aquired , but our main problem now in AFRICA especially nigeria is Leadership and followership.

hmmm. . . . .3 posts and nobody has blamed Him yet

OMO IBO:

to be honest, its only a matter of time for the US economy to crash. from all indications doesnt look as though theres an nd in sight.  cross over to the other side of the pond, The asian economy is growing is like theres no tomorrow. African economy is also growing at an increasingly impressive stage.
only yesterday, i read diamond bank has been listed in the london stock exchange. india have made there first car, guess how much, less than £2000. mind u india's economy is the fastest growing ecomony in the world.
china, japan and a hoost of other asian countires are now investing in nigeria, a very good time to consider going home if u live out side nigeria.

this only spells dooom for the american economy.   
kenya is one of the few countries in the world and the only country in africa to transfer money via phone. , enough about africa



by the way, houses prices are dropping in england but its the opposite in america.

I am assuming this means you do not live in America at all. Housing has dropped and is continuing to drop in America. It does not spell doom for only the American Market but markets around the world actually, China as well. I feel for this we need an economist to help us understand exactly what is going on in the world today and it is not just a straight line situation here were you say Asia is gaining and is the west is loosing. That is not it. Is the west crashes, Asia will likely follow. The situation in the country has been decades in the making. I mean since the 1980's America has been enjoying so much progress and the economists have been speculating a recession was to be expected with the way the market has been running. I believe we need to get an economist here to better explain where this all came from and where it may lead. Note they are not 100% on recession. Infact, Companies and institutions are working as we speak to stop a recession from occuring. We all need to pray and keep our fingers crossed cause to assume that only America will be affected will be admitting ignorance.

About the car that was launched in India, imagine living in a place like Lagos state, Nigeria and every tom, privates and harry has a car, do you think that will be a good thing Did you think of the 1) Congestion 2) The Limited space 3) The pollution 4) Effect on Oil price world over etc,  I mean it is great idea but let us wait 5 years to see what effect it has on india as a whole and then how the rest of the world will see it then.

Definition of recession is negative growth in 2 successive quarters. i.e if there were negative economic growth in 6 months together.

However, the way all the indicators are going it will take a minor miracle for their not be the 'R' word. The whole western world is superstititous about it that they don't like to pronounce it.

My view is that America has been very reckless but it hasn't just started today and because of the opportunities in emerging markets like China, India, Brazil and some African countries people are no longer dumping their capital in America.

Amazingly part of the reason is GW Bush, he singlehandedly did what most president before don't do, to say the rest of the world does not matter and that 'they can all go to hell'- Iraq war is that clear example.

Unfortunately there is no country that is an isalnd. America uses third world country and other countries money to grow her economy and there was no short supply of it until recently because of the bad shape of the economy no one is buying the dollar anymore, even OPEC discuss cutting their tieing of oil price with the dollar. Dollar is so weak that it will fall on mere speculation.

America foreign and domestic debt is growing at an alarming rate. they have spend Billions of dollars in figthing unwinnable phoney war in IRAQ.

If country like Nigeria has leadership I assure you that we have use the opportunity to esatblish ourselves with SA and other countries in North Africa to send a powerful message to the world for them to come and invest in our country.

Unfortunately, two major thing that OBJ could have done to send powerful signal to the world is Electricity and Infrastructures lke Road (lagos -Ibadan Express Road was built 30 years ago, no new built or good maintance of that road, no new road linking lagos with the East.

Thosc are complete failure of monumental proportions.

I hate to predict that YAR A'DULL on the account of his 7months and his cabinet compositionis unlikely to do better. The sole reason for my view is that how sunday will look like you will know on saturday. If he has AGF who is hell bent on letting ex-governors use rule of law and due process to launder monies then no confidence in the ordinary people.

THE WORD WE NEED IN NGERIA IS 'R' and that is REVOLUTION.

The Economy is grwowing because of some mercy from God and if we don't take advantage of it now to position ourselves once the 'R' of America and western nation is gone it may be our turn because capital has wings and he does fly to find greener pasture.

I-man:

hmmm. . . . .3 posts and nobody has blamed Him yet

Bush is to blame.

davidylan:

Bush is to blame.

Na end times o.They say strange things will be happening when the end of time nears!Nothing can be stranger than what I am seeing on this thread

I actually spoke too soon!Alas,there is the inevitable explanans I was waiting for:

vigasimple:

Amazingly part of the reason is GW Bush, he singlehandedly did what most president before don't do, to say the rest of the world does not matter and that 'they can all go to hell'- Iraq war is that clear example.

Bush brought about the threat of recession in 2008 by purportedly saying that "the rest of world can go to hell."If Iraq was the prime example,one would have thought the US should have gone into a recession earlier,say 2003/2004

I will bet the economy doesnt go into recession.

The credit crunch is not supported by fundamentals as there
is a surfeit of funds around the world looking for where to park
their money especially from the so called sovereign wealth funds.

I think the banks are just waiting to untangle the whole subprime mess
to deternmine the extent of their liabilities. Once they sort their balances sheets
out I suspect they will relax and intervbank borrowing will be kickstarted again.

Besides the foreclosures will hopefully seize once Bush makes up his mind about
the stimulus package to be offered to hard up homeowners.

As long as these central bankers keep their Keynes tomes close by everything will
seem like a storm in a teacup.

vigasimple:

Unfortunately there is no country that is an isalnd. America uses third world country and other countries money to grow her economy and there was no short supply of it until recently because of the bad shape of the economy [b]no one is buying the dollar anymore, [/b]even OPEC discuss cutting their tieing of oil price with the dollar. Dollar is so weak that it will fall on mere speculation.

The shaded parts of your post are just risible. The US uses other people's money to grow her economy? Where did these people get their money from? Reading your post,one would never realise that there is symbiotic relationship between the US economy and these other economies.

No one is buying dollar anymore? Hundreds of billions of dollars are still being added to reserves in many countries including our country Nigeria.

@ocho cinco

Its not just the credit crunch that is undermining the economy.2/3rds of the US economy is accounted for by consunmer expenditure.Obviously,falling house prices erode the consumer's buying power.I don't think the sub-prime debacle is necessarily related to the current housing price deflation.

I don't think Bush should do anything about the subprime mess. The market should learn how to assess and price risk,Govt intervention only leads to moral hazard and ensures that this is more likely to occur again.

Years of cheap credit encouraged an asset bubble that needs to be flushed out of the system.

If Bush should do anything,he should take this opportunity to look at Giuliani's proposals for a cut in the corporate tax and capital gains tax. Maybe an income tax cut to make his proposals politically viable

ocho cinco:

As long as these central bankers keep their Keynes tomes close by everything will
seem like a storm in a teacup.

What's up with the different noms de guerre?

I think the economy is in recession and economic pundits are beginning to talk about it. But, come, the economy has been ailing since Bush took over. The housing market is cooling off like cucumber, the credit crunch is affecting departmental stores and delinquences on credit card bills is rising. So,the economy is in bad shape as of now. Bush has played a role in almost destroying the US's economy. On the other hand, Africa's economy is growing exponentially. Trowe price as of last year has started investing in Africa. And the yield for the past year has been quite impressive.

what role has bush played?? is he responsible for the credit crisis??

Ndipe:

I think the economy is in recession and economic pundits are beginning to talk about it. B[b]ut, come, the economy has been ailing since Bush took over[/b]. The housing market is cooling off like cucumber, the credit crunch is affecting departmental stores and delinquences on credit card bills is rising. So,the economy is in bad shape as of now. Bush has played a role in almost destroying the US's economy. On the other hand, Africa's economy is growing exponentially. Trowe price as of last year has started investing in Africa. And the yield for the past year has been quite impressive.

This reminds me of the cliche-correlation is not the same thing as causation.That Bush was President at the time of an ailing economy doesn't mean he "destroyed" the economy.

People don't actually remember that the last 2 quarters of 2000 saw sluggish economic growth.The economy started ailing before Bush came into office and was already in a mild recession when he assumed office.

That being said,US GDP growth has outstripped that of the OECD average. 2007 was the first time since 2001 that growth rate stalled

Ndipe:

I think the economy is in recession and economic pundits are beginning to talk about it. But, come, the economy has been ailing since Bush took over. The housing market is cooling off like cucumber, the credit crunch is affecting departmental stores and delinquences on credit card bills is rising. So,the economy is in bad shape as of now. Bush has played a role in almost destroying the US's economy. On the other hand, Africa's economy is growing exponentially. Trowe price as of last year has started investing in Africa. And the yield for the past year has been quite impressive.

Your claim there is Far far from the truth @Ndipe.

1)  The Economy is not in Recession

2) American has been enjoying economic growth and low unemployment rates for the past 6 years

3) The reason for a slow economy and projected recession has little to do with Bush but the WHOLE AMERICAN lifestyle. We have since the 80's been enjoying a consumeristic lifestyle and are now possibly going to pay for it, 


Please spend time studying these things on some level at least.

bawomol:

what role has bush played?? is he responsible for the credit crisis??

Great Question!!!

Kobojunkie:


2) American has been enjoying economic growth and low unemployment rates for the past 6 years

The reason why a lot of people in America don't "appreciate" their relatively rapid GDP growth is that wages growth has been largely static over the past few years.

However,the US economy has been very strong for quite a while compared to other industrialised nations.There is a clear Post hoc ergo propter hoc("Since that event followed this one, that event must have been caused by this one." quality to a lot of people's analysis of Bush's economic record.

Recent economic outlooks do not favor the 'US economy sneeze = worldwide cold' theory as much as before

there might be some effects, but not as drastic as before. India, China and Brazil's growth prospects are viewed as strong enough to prevent large scale effects on the world economy, if the US situation is properly managed.

China especially is not as vulnerable as before, with only 20% of its exports ending up in the US.

Frankly I think this is a little bit of doomsday predicting, yes the economy may go into recession, but not for long. Even the last set of job data released was in my view not an accurate measure, given the extreme freezing weather on the day it was taken. Half the country was iced over then, so the data was bound to be poor. With the FRB dropping rates shortly, the recession should be short lived.

Housing prices should drop anyways, there has been far too much speculation in there, especially in 'red hot' areas like Phoenix and the like.

There is some truth to the 'consumerist' theory, more due to increased debt to GDP ratios - US savings have dropped, and from being a net lender to the world, the US economy is a net borrower, debt cannot continue to increase relative to GDP indefinitely. . .especially when economically detrimental actions such as the war in Iraq persist.

@post
simple answer- yes. USA is in debt, economy is collapsing, little by little, from all the money USA is borrowing from other countries, such as canada, for the iraq war.

@Debo

Wey your comments for the Gooners thread?

What happened?You normally provide post-match commentary

debosky:


Housing prices should drop anyways, there has been far too much speculation in there, especially in 'red hot' areas like Phoenix and the like.

I heard that housing futures show a 20% drop in prices next year.

Hope we see a similar price drop in the UK.There were estimates by,I believe the OECD, that house prices are overinflated by 40% in the UK.

Not sure about the vulnerability of China.Even if only 20% of China's exports are to the US,the rest of its export markets are countries who often are heavily dependent on the US for exports. So,even if China isn't directly affected,it would be indirectly.

Ol boy I'm on football sabbatical, haven't watched a game in weeks

Granted that there could possibly be knock on effects, I view the recession simply as a form of economic correction, some of these spending/borrowing practices are currently unsustainable, and this temporary crunch will likely lead to increased real savings which will spur sustainable growth in the long run.

The reason I believe China may be more insulated is due to the increasing 'organic' growth leading to more production for internal use due to its expanding middle class, thus leading to a stronger domestic economy similar to what the US has always had as its main strength, less susceptible to external variations and less export dependent.

So far the UK has been more jittery over the US problems because of the similar weakness/overinflated state of the housing market than say France or Germany, showing that this weakening in the US may not be broad based, but more focused on a particular sector driving growth leading to the cloaking of underlying unsustainable consumption patterns.

Once the correction kicks in, I believe the system will right itself.

debosky:

The reason I believe China may be more insulated is due to the increasing 'organic' growth leading to more production for internal use due to its expanding middle class, thus leading to a stronger domestic economy similar to what the US has always had as its main strength, less susceptible to external variations and less export dependent.

There was an interesting article in the Economist noting that previous studies have underestimated the scale at which domestic demand has been driving economic growth in China.China can still probably 8% annual GDP growth even if the US falls into a recession.

So far the UK has been more jittery over the US problems because of the similar weakness/overinflated state of the housing market than say France or Germany, showing that this weakening in the US may not be broad based, but more focused on a particular sector driving growth leading to the cloaking of underlying unsustainable consumption patterns.

I saw this funny comment by a Nigerian in the Telegraph:

One good point to the coming downturn it will promote some reverse migration. It's already happened to me I sold up and have moved back to Africa. No sub prime here just good weatehr and fresh food. Enjoy the downturn UK see you in a couple of years time!
Posted by Osa on January 11, 2008 11:20 AM

@topic,

YES.

reverse migration?

When armed robbers and bad roads, NEPA and the co are rampant? I'll take my chances with recession thank you.

Recession means (at least) two quarters of economic contraction, i.e a few percent reductions, inflation alone in naija cuts away almost the entire economic growth (as reported) in terms of your purchasing power, so you are in essence going backwards without knowing it, unless of course your income is increasing faster than the rate of inflation which is not the case for majority of Nigerians.

That said, the UK/US or the West in general is not the place to be for everyone, find your niche and stick to it.

Even if there is a recession, it will not be long term if the situation is managed properly. In a sense I'd like there to be a recession so the world economy can actually realise that it can still grow even while the US dithers. In future it will remove all the angst and market fluctuations so dependent on US economic data. . .or at least dampen them considerably.

In a worst case scenario-where the US enters into a sustained period of sluggish growth-the impact will be eventually felt in Africa,indeed globally.

So running back to Nigeria because of a possible recession would be foolhardy.There was a recession between the last 2 quarters of 2000 and the first 3 quarters of 2001 in the US,one between 1990 and 1991-so its no big deal.

Recessions are an inevitable part of the business cycle.They are actually necessary to get rid of waste accumulated in buoyant years.

The fundamentals in the US are still sound and the US continues to look a better long term prospect than the EU region.

If you adjust for the different population growth rates of the US and Nigeria,you will find that real GDP per capita growth in Nigeria over the past few years has been about the same as that of the US.At that rate,it would probably take us 150-200 years to get to the level the US are in today

Citigroup Posts Record Loss on $18 Billion Writedown (Update6)


Jan. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Citigroup Inc. posted the biggest loss in the bank's 196-year history as surging defaults on home loans forced it to write down the value of subprime-mortgage investments by $18 billion.

The fourth-quarter net loss of $9.83 billion, or $1.99 a share, compared with a profit of $5.1 billion, or $1.03, a year earlier, the New York-based bank said in statement. Citigroup reduced its dividend by 41 percent and is selling $14.5 billion of preferred stock to investors including the government of Singapore to shore up depleted capital. Chief Executive Officer Vikram Pandit eliminated 4,200 jobs and plans more cuts.

With this disclosure,m I think we are in trouble in USA. the mortgage industry is laying off workers unconventionally. this is mind bugling


http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=akMD0kv6P.HQ&refer=home

In a worst case scenario-where the US enters into a sustained period of sluggish growth-the impact will be eventually felt in Africa,indeed globally.

So running back to Nigeria because of a possible recession would be foolhardy.There was a recession between the last 2 quarters of 2000 and the first 3 quarters of 2001 in the US,one between 1990 and 1991-so its no big deal.

Recessions are an inevitable part of the business cycle.They are actually necessary to get rid of waste accumulated in buoyant years.

The fundamentals in the US are still sound and the US continues to look a better long term prospect than the EU region.

If you adjust for the different population growth rates of the US and Nigeria,you will find that real GDP per capita growth in Nigeria over the past few  years has been about the same as that of the US.At that rate,it would probably take us 150-200 years to get to the level the US are in today

who is comparing america to nigeria?
i think the idea here is that africans left their various african countries to live a better life in america, so if this dream is starting to become unclear and unattainable it is then sensible for people to return back to their homes. i will rather suffer at home than suffering away from home. as everybody's situation is different from one another, i do not think that it is fair to discourage people from returning to africa from america by posting statistic. i think people should be allowed to make their moves.

Depilot:



who is comparing america to nigeria?
i think the idea here is that africans left their various african countries to live a better life in america, so if this dream is starting to become unclear and unattainable it is then sensible for people to return back to their homes. i will rather suffer at home than suffering away from home. as everybody's situation is different from one another, i do not think that it is fair to discourage people from returning to africa from america by posting statistic. i think people should be allowed to make their moves.

A Recession is not in any way to be seen as something that will be permanent. Infact, the economy might recover in less than a year so running back to Nigeria cause of the recession will not make sense at all. I think instead people should learn to ride the hard times so they learn how to avoid it happening again. It should be expected but not seen as the end of the world. Infact, it does not mean the whole economy shuts down during a recession so deciding to quit one's job to run will not really be a good idea.

sorry in advance for my ignorance.
at this point in time, i believe that with a serious minded leaders in place, nigeria as an african country has a brighter future than america. think about it! therefore returning back to nigeria might not be a bad idea for those who left the country, seeking for a better life.

Depilot:

sorry in advance for my ignorance.
at this point in time, i believe that with a serious minded leaders in place, nigeria as an african country has a brighter future than america. think about it! therefore returning back to nigeria might not be a bad idea for those who left the country, seeking for a better life.

We can keep chasing dreams or we can focus on the now and what is. Nigeria is not anywhere close to were america is right now and even during a recession, Nigeria will not even be close so again, running away cause of a temp slump in economy will not do those who already have a life in America any good. I mean sure illegal aliens can run back to Nigeria but that does not mean that in the next 20 years Nigeria will have move 25% closer to where america is right now and does not mean they will have a better life in Nigeria either. Fact is weathering the hardtimes is a part of growing. Quitting one's job out of fear of recession will likely be a bad and in some cases disastrous move.

nigeria having a brighter future doesn't mean nigeria will be better than america. that is not the case here. a man that drives an old nissan could simply have a brighter future and life than a man that drives a brand new mercedes benz. america of today is in a position where the future is not easy to forecast. they have too many major problems colliding at the same time. the out come of the 2 wars are still not predictable and it might take them another 30 years to clearly figure things out and get back on track. again, sorry for my ignorance, but i think nigeria has a better and a clearer future if the leaders are serious enough.

Depilot:

nigeria having a brighter future doesn't mean nigeria will be better than america. that is not the case here. a man that drives an old nissan could simply have a brighter future and life than a man that drives a brand new mercedes benz. america of today is in a position where the future is not easy to forecast. they have too many major problems colliding at the same time. the out come of the 2 wars are still not predictable and it might take them another 30 years to clearly figure things out and get back on track. again, sorry for my ignorance, but i think nigeria has a better and a clearer future if the leaders are serious enough.

What are these many problems you claim America has in the future?? I don't know how old you are but do you realize that the "Nigeria has a brighter future" song has been in circulation for over 40 years now Simply investing in that will not and have not made the lives of millions of Nigerians better to this day. We are not looking for money tune players but more realistic human beings. If you ask many in here who were alive 20 years ago, they will give you the same line that Nigeria had a better and clearer future back then if the leaders were serious and look at Nigeria 20 years later.

Now trying to convince people that running away cause of a recession in America to Nigeria will be better is something again I am against. A recession is to be expected. Nigeria itself will with any growth experienced in years to come will at some point have to go through same. That does not in any way mean things are doomed from that point on in Nigeria. Quitting your job and running to Nigeria cause of fears of a recession might end up being a most disastrous move.

i'm a young man sir, and i'm not even a nigerian. my discussion on this issue is based on what is going on in my own country today. as you've stated "If you ask many in here who were alive 20 years ago, they will give you the same line that Nigeria had a better and clearer future back then if the leaders were serious and look at Nigeria 20 years later" don't you think that it takes 2 or 4 people to change things around for better? don't you think that when you run to another country for a better life means your country will forever remain at the same point? if many were willing to stay strong and hang in there for things to get better jjust like you've recommended regarding america and recession, nigeria would have been a better country today. what you're saying here is "it is ok to stay cool in america for things to get better, but it is not cool to contribute towards reforming nigeria.
the choice belongs to everybody, like have said before different situation for everybody. but i will rather assist in reforming my country than hanging in there in america while they finish the 2 wars and start another one.

What are these many problems you claim America has in the future??

unemployment rate, iraq war, afghanistan war, *iran war, mortgage crisis, foreclosure, gas price, heating oil price, organizations moving to china/ Vietnamese, organization outsourcing in india, crime rate, everlasting terrorist problem, constant racial discrimination, food price and more
these problems sound like nothing, but americans are known not to deal with problems like these very well.
with serious minded leaders in place and a better solution to corruption, i think nigeria has a brighter future.what is going on in liberia today was supposed to take place in 30 years. it is true that things are far from being perfect, but many liberians (talents)have returned back home and very determined to assist in reforming the country. i'm very glad and proud to tell you that so far so good. why waste your time and knowledge in another country (as invisible under-dog) when you could be doing something positive in your own father's land?