These ANALYSTS ARE SPOT ON.
HA HA THE WEST HAS BEEN FOOLING NIGERIANS SOON, AFTER THEIR OIL IS FINISHED WHICH IS PROJECTED TO BE 25 YEARS FROM LAST YEAR. THESE WESTERNERS WILL BE SINGING A DIFFERENT TUNE ELSEWHERE. grin grin grin grin grin grin[b]Not so long ago we were told PAKISTAN WILL REACH $1TRILLION MARK THIS YEAR, WE'RE WAITING WE HAVEN'T SEEN THAT. grin grin grin grin grin

I SAW THIS INTERESTING ARTICLE LAST NIGHT AND LAUGHED. grin grin grin grin grin grin
NIGERIA THE REGIONAL SUPER POWER NOT A GIANT OF AFRICA cry cry cry cry cry

There has been a great deal of attention paid to the rise of Nigeria as of late. Indeed, it is hard to ignore the impressive economic growth rates being posted at a time when most economies are on the decline. The government appears focused on improving government services and investing in high potential growth areas of the economy. President Goodluck Jonathan’s recent Transformation Agenda is an impressive document that many economists and analysts believe is setting the conditions for Nigeria to become the dominant economy on the African continent. The agenda emerged in 2011 out of a belief by President Jonathan that the government needed a sense of direction and a way to ensure the country’s development priorities were applied with continuity, consistency, and commitment – the so-called “3Cs”. cry cry cry cry

Such analysis of Nigeria’s trajectory is further understandable given the current distribution of economic and political power in the region. Today, there are three regional nodes of economic and political influence in Sub-Saharan Africa: South Africa, Nigeria, and Kenya. These three markets are the dominant players and generally act as hubs for continent-wide trade and commerce. They are also important interlocutors within their regions and across the continent via the African Union. Traditionally, South Africa has been the most dominant of the three, taking on leadership roles within the African Union and often representing the continent in international institutions like the United Nations Security Council. South Africa’s dominance in this respect continues, but many are now arguing that its position atop the hierarchy of African states is being economically threatened by Nigeria.

But what I find particularly remarkable about all the analyses is their failure to consider the political economy of Nigeria as a whole. Indeed, much of the contemporary analysis of Nigeria appears to gloss over, forget, or intentionally ignore some of the important structural issues that still confront it. I don’t mean to downplay the significant economic growth that Nigeria is experiencing, or of the plans to fix its problems – all of these are good things. However, it really is too soon to claim that Nigeria is posing any threat to the dominance of South Africa on the continent.

Whilst Nigeria is a hub for the movement of goods, South Africa’s capacity and infrastructure are still superior in many respects. A recent study coming out of the South African Institute of International Affairs, argues that geography and infrastructure make a real difference to economic growth potential. The study notes that South Africa still maintains a geographic advantage and advanced infrastructural capacity, ranging from deep-sea ports to container activity to strong logistics capacity, and that it is where many multinational companies have chosen to locate their headquarters. The study also warns that other countries are finding ways to improve market share of trade activity in Africa. All of these findings are correct, but the logical jump to assuming South Africa’s decline under Zuma and Nigeria’s rising dominance implied by these sorts of studies leaves me feeling skeptical for the following reasons:

First, even in light of Nigeria’s strong economic growth, its GDP is still far less than that of South Africa. In fact, we are talking about $164 billion less. Not an insignificant sum for two developing countries. Nigeria’s GDP currently sits at $244 billion whilst South Africa maintains a GDP of about $408 billion. With Nigeria’s annual growth rate of 7% that is an extra $16 billion coming into the Nigerian economy next year, in 2012 we have seen the decline of Nigeria's growth from 7% in 2011 to 6.5% and assuming growth continues on par as projected, this will have a compounded effect. In this context, it is going to take more than 20 years for Nigeria to catch up with South Africa’s economy, which is also growing at a (albeit more modest) rate of 3%. Note: with recent oil findings in Southern Africa, South Africas problems are almost done and they will rise and open the gap. This is a far lengthier period than the 2014 prediction made by some analysts, so it is quite possible that the economic fortunes of either state could change significantly. Indeed, it is believed that South African growth rates could increase if problems with labour unrest in the mining sector are resolved. This is entirely plausible if the Zuma administration negotiates a mutually acceptable plan with its union partners currently in the governing alliance. All this takes is political will.

So, Nigeria’s transition into dominance will be reliant on current growth rates, oil prices, and education investments remaining the same for the next ten years. This scenario doesn’t take into account any shifts in macroeconomic conditions or natural fluctuations in markets. As well, it assumes that Nigeria can solve some real challenges it faces with its business environment, primarily that of capital flight and corruption. Indeed, Nigeria is ranked 131 out of 185 countries as a place to do business and has stayed in the same spot for the past two years. In contrast, South Africa’s business environment has improved in the past year – it is now ranked 39th globally, a two spot jump from the 41st position that it maintained last year.

Nigeria remains rife with corruption despite efforts by the government to address it. Continentally, Nigeria is ranked 27 out of 53 states in terms of being a non-corrupt environment; internationally it is ranked 139 out of 176 countries, according to Transparency International. In contrast, South Africa ranks seventh within the region and 69th globally for non-corruption. Corruption in Nigeria is really a systemic issue and the challenge of tackling it cannot be underestimated; to do so would require sustained support from continental and international partners.

The rise of Nigeria will also be dependent on its ability to address socio-political challenges. Longstanding civil conflict due to insurgent groups, and struggles to put in place safeguard measures to protect human rights will also prevent Nigeria from becoming the dominant player on the continent. These challenges are real and if not addressed, will detract from Nigeria’s ability to assert its dominance through the use of force or through moral persuasion.

Political stability in Nigeria is still a major issue. Adding to the existing political divisions between the people in the North and South of the country are the threats that insurgent groups such as Boko Haram and Ansaru pose to stability. Indeed, the national and local level governments appear to be struggling to contain these groups that are committed to destabilizing the North and East and to undermining important development work such as the vaccinations against Polio. Civil conflict brought on by these insurgent groups and their effectiveness at undermining the authority of the state and instilling fear in the local population poses a real challenge to Nigeria’s rise as sorting out internal matters will divert attention and resources for engaging in regional or international issues. Nigeria’s inability to take leadership in intervening in regional conflicts to date, like Cote d’Ivoire and Mali, only highlight the difficulty it faces in projecting leadership outside of its borders. While it is expected that Nigeria will participate in stabilizing Mali through the provision of troops, its slow response has been surprising given its leadership role in the regional economic community of ECOWAS. South Africa, which is a reluctant intervenor in African conflicts, has committed $23 million in humanitarian aid and police training.

Finally, the Nigerian government continues to grapple with respecting human rights. Amnesty International recently released its annual report on Nigeria that notes the continuing prevalence of extrajudicial killings, enforced disappearances, forced evictions, and unlawful detention. As well, rights for the LGBTI community continue to be hindered as homosexuality is still illegal in Nigeria and the president is planning on signing the Same Sex Marriage (Prohibition) Bill that was passed by the Nigerian Senate in 2011. All of this impacts Nigeria’s ability to act as a moral actor on the continent and internationally. South Africa, on the other hand, continues to be a moral actor as a result of the strong human rights provisions within its constitution and the existence of a constitutional court that effectively upholds those provisions.

When considering the “rise” of countries, it is important to remember that influence and dominance are also determined by other socio-political conditions than just the economy. The political reality of Nigeria includes real efforts to improve economic conditions in the country but also persistent problems that, if left unresolved, will undermine its ability to influence and dominate in Africa. In this light, it is important that one-dimensional analyses based on economic growth figures be tempered and contextualized against the challenges the country faces. [/b]

BAD NEWS JEALOUS NIHELLIANS

[b]Where Africa’s rich live
Jaclyn Skurie @City_Press 26 May 2013 14:01

Bryanston in Sandton, northern Joburg, is one of the wealthiest suburbs in Africa’s wealthiest city. It is estimated that Joburg is home to 23?400 dollar millionaires. Picture: Sotheby’s Realty

Welcome to Sandton, the plushest area on the continent where high walls, flash cars and hired help are representations of the owners’ opulence

Sandton is Africa’s hottest millionaire playground, boasting more high net worth individuals than anywhere else on the continent.

London-based financial research firm WealthInsight revealed this month that Joburg is home to 23 400 dollar millionaires.

Of these, 1 900 have risen to millionaire status over the past year alone, and 15 300 have chosen to live in Sandton.

Dollar millionaires are those individuals with business interests, investable assets and liquid assets worth $1 million (R9.6 million) or more, excluding the value of their main home.

The African city with the second most dollar millionaires is Cairo, with 20 800 by the end of last year. The Egyptian capital was followed by Lagos, Nigeria, with ­18 000.

Cape Town ranks second in South Africa, with 9 000 dollar millionaires.

WealthInsight analyst Andrew Amoils said: “The most interesting statistics were in Sandton. Sandton experienced far stronger growth than the rest of the country, with millionaire numbers in the area rising by 18% during the past year.”

Joburg is also home to 285 multimillionaires, who are defined as having net assets worth more than $30 million.

According to Amoils, this ranks “well above the likes of Cairo (145), Cape Town (110) and Lagos (123)”.

South Africa’s four billionaires are Nicholas Oppenheimer and family, Johann Rupert, Patrice Motsepe and Christo Wiese.

The results of Census 2011 revealed that 3 678 households in the Sandton area enjoy an income of more than R2.4 million a year.

Sandhurst, arguably Sandton’s poshest suburb, is home to 120 of those high-income earners.

Driving down the quiet streets of that suburb, one finds few signs of life.

An occasional SUV – the standard Porsche or Mercedes Benz – rolls by, bouncing over speed bumps.

The greatest insight you can get into the characters of those who live beyond the walls comes from the ornamentation on their iron gates.

One is adorned with bronze sculptures of cow heads, while a stone mermaid sits outside another.

It is difficult to differentiate between what is a house and what is a consulate or hotel here.

These estates have fancy names like Siena, Tchissola House and Cleveland Lodge, and their hedges are neatly trimmed into triangles and circles.

When international celebrities visit Joburg, they often stay in Sandhurst. Charlize Theron and Oprah Winfrey regularly stay at The Saxon boutique hotel, which is owned by London-based billionaire Douw Steyn.

Earlier this month, it was rumoured that Canadian teen pop sensation Justin Bieber stayed at The Saxon during the Joburg leg of his South African tour.

Most homes, and even some streets, are watched over by guards in huts outside.

Everything from the landscaped pavements to the perimeter walls are detailed.

Everything is attractive and elaborate.

A myriad construction sites tells outsiders that the neighbourhood is flush with cash.

According to its website, Sotheby’s Realty has 10 homes listed for sale in Sandhurst. Asking prices range from R7.95 million to R47 million.

The latter boasts four bedrooms, four garages, two “cloakrooms”, eight reception areas, a plunge pool, a sauna and a steam room.

The few people who are on the suburb’s neatly paved, pothole-free streets are not keen to talk to journalists.

These are security guards, domestic workers and groundskeepers, all of whom say they don’t want to talk about the wealth that surrounds them for fear of losing their jobs.

Johan Roos is overseeing the construction of a 3 000m² home in Sandhurst for a private owner.

He says the three-storey house will have a bowling alley “for relaxing”, a tennis court, and both indoor and outdoor swimming pools.

The construction will take about two years to complete and is one of the biggest projects he has ever worked on.

Roos says many of his clients want their homes to look like “overseas houses”, or those with a more contemporary style.

When City Press arrived at his construction site, workers were busy building “standard” 6m-high perimeter walls.

“They like their privacy,” Roos said of his clients.

He isn’t surprised by the amount of money people have in the area.

Most of his work has been in Sandhurst and Houghton Estate, another suburb in northern Joburg where 141?households earn more than R2.4 million a year.

“I like my job and I like my clients. But for me personally, this house is too big. I like my farm lifestyle,” says Roos.[/b]

Lagos still a OVERPOPULATED BABY.

Woolies saw it all oo in Naaigeria. Their middle class stats were exagarated in reality its small
In reality AFRICA SOUTH OF EQUATOR HAS MORE MIDDLE CLASS THAN ELSE WHERE IN SUB SAHARA AFRICA.

Botswana in "BLUE TOPS" . Theyr BATSWANAS LIKE THE BATSWANA OF NORTH WEST SOUTH AFRICA. Also rich live in PLATINUM RICH NORTH WEST (80% OF PLATINUM IS OF THE WORLD HERE). PLATINUM IS VALUE HIGHER THAN "GOLD". FACT. Hence in SA and Botswana "GOLD RINGS ARE OUT OF FASHION AND CHEAP, PLATINUM HAS TOOK OVER".

GDP nonsence bravo HUNGRY STOMACHS who sh8t outside in the DARK.

kudos to FG.
Lagos was actually developed by the FG( both past and present)

If they like let them rate Kebbi,Sokoto,Ekiti,Oyo,Osun etc above Anambra State,one thing i know is that most the of my guys i left behind in Onitsha and Nnewi are car owners while some have started developingg thier plots of land according to thei needs.
Thier progresses may not be reflected on the said stats but yes these guys are doing well,if you paid a visit to thier shops you will know that they are on top of the game,not when you put stats to decieve some gullible poeple and overhype govt.
Am tired of all this bullshit stats of Nigeria being this and that while most people live in abject poverty or Lagos being this and that while more than 82% of the residents are superpoors,most living under dehumazing conditions ranging from slums,poor healtcare delivery,poor housing and lack of some basic social animities.

Its high time we stopped dwelling on all this oyibo cook up stats and move our nation foward...the stat that matters to every Tunde,Emeka,Adamu or Ejiro is "3square meal first"

Chuksphil2go: If they like let them rate Kebbi,Sokoto,Ekiti,Oyo,Osun etc above Anambra State,one thing i know is that most the of my guys i left behind in Onitsha and Nnewi are car owners while some have started developingg thier plots of land according to thei needs.
Thier progresses may not be reflected on the said stats but yes these guys are doing well,if you paid a visit to thier shops you will know that they are on top of the game,not when you put stats to decieve some gullible poeple and overhype govt.
Am tired of all this bullshit stats of Nigeria being this and that while most people live in abject poverty or Lagos being this and that while more than 82% of the residents are superpoors,most living under dehumazing conditions ranging from slums,poor healtcare delivery,poor housing and lack of some basic social animities.

Its high time we stopped dwelling on all this oyibo cook up stats and move our nation foward...the stat that matters to every Tunde,Emeka,Adamu or Ejiro is "3square meal first"

Oga there is no state where you won't find people building houses or buying cars that said i agree with u we need to focus less and useless gdp and focus more on our hdi cos that's what affects d common man

Chuksphil2go: If they like let them rate Kebbi,Sokoto,Ekiti,Oyo,Osun etc above Anambra State,one thing i know is that most the of my guys i left behind in Onitsha and Nnewi are car owners while some have started developingg thier plots of land according to thei needs.
Thier progresses may not be reflected on the said stats but yes these guys are doing well,if you paid a visit to thier shops you will know that they are on top of the game,not when you put stats to decieve some gullible poeple and overhype govt.
Am tired of all this bullshit stats of Nigeria being this and that while most people live in abject poverty or Lagos being this and that while more than 82% of the residents are superpoors,most living under dehumazing conditions ranging from slums,poor healtcare delivery,poor housing and lack of some basic social animities.

Its high time we stopped dwelling on all this oyibo cook up stats and move our nation foward...the stat that matters to every Tunde,Emeka,Adamu or Ejiro is "3square meal first"

E dey pain you say dem no rate Anambra??